FUTURES STUDIES (also called FUTUROLOGY) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and parallel to the field of history . Futures studies (colloquially called "FUTURES" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends.
Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futures studies concerns a much bigger and more complex world system. The methodology and knowledge are much less proven as compared to natural science or even social science like sociology and economics . Futurology is sometimes described as pseudoscience .
* 1 Overview
* 2.1 Origins * 2.2 Emergence * 2.3 Further development
* 4 Methodologies
* 4.1 Futures techniques * 4.2 Shaping alternative futures * 4.3 Weak signals, the future sign and wild cards * 4.4 Near-term predictions
* 4.5 Trend analysis and forecasting
* 4.5.1 Mega-trends * 4.5.2 Potential trends * 4.5.3 Branching trends * 4.5.4 Life-cycle of a trend * 4.5.5 Life cycle of technologies
* 5 Education
* 6 Applications of foresight and specific fields
* 6.1 General applicability and use of foresight products
* 7 Research centers * 8 Primary programs (English) * 9 Primary programs (other languages)
* 10 Futurists
* 10.1 Notable futurists
* 11 Books
* 11.1 APF\'s list of most significant futures works * 11.2 Other notable foresight books * 11.3 Periodicals and journals
* 12 Organizations
* 12.1 Foresight professional networks * 12.2 Public-sector foresight organizations * 12.3 Non-governmental foresight organizations
* 13 See also * 14 References * 15 External links
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FORESIGHT was the original term and was first used in this sense by
Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all of these disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines not only possible but also probable, preferable, and "wild card" futures. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines, generally focusing on the STEEP categories of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions. For example, many people expect the collapse of the Earth's ecosystem in the near future, while others believe the current ecosystem will survive indefinitely. A foresight approach would seek to analyze and highlight the assumptions underpinning such views.
As a field, futures studies expands on the research component, by emphasizing the communication of a strategy and the actionable steps needed to implement the plan or plans leading to the preferable future. It is in this regard, that futures studies evolves from an academic exercise to a more traditional business-like practice, looking to better prepare organizations for the future.
The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means.
The first works that attempt to make systematic predictions for the
future were written in the 18th century. Memoirs of the Twentieth
The genre of science fiction became established towards the end of
the 19th century, with notable writers, including
H. G. Wells
W. Warren Wagar
Moving from narrow technological predictions, Wells envisioned the eventual collapse of the capitalist world system after a series of destructive total wars . From this havoc would ultimately emerge a world of peace and plenty, controlled by competent technocrats .
The work was a bestseller , and Wells was invited to deliver a
lecture at the
In his fictional works, Wells predicted the invention and use of the
atomic bomb in
The World Set Free
By contrast, in the
By the 1960s, academics, philosophers, writers and artists across the
globe had begun to explore enough future scenarios so as to fashion a
common dialogue. Inventors such as
International dialogue became institutionalized in the form of the
World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), founded in 1967, with the
The first doctoral program on the Study of the Future, was founded in
1969 at the University Of Massachusetts by Christoper Dede and Billy
Rojas.The next graduate program (Masters Degree) was also founded by
Christopher Dede in 1975 at the
University of Houston–Clear Lake
As a transdisciplinary field, futures studies attracts generalists. This transdisciplinary nature can also cause problems, owing to it sometimes falling between the cracks of disciplinary boundaries; it also has caused some difficulty in achieving recognition within the traditional curricula of the sciences and the humanities. In contrast to "Futures Studies" at the undergraduate level, some graduate programs in strategic leadership or management offer masters or doctorate programs in "strategic foresight " for mid-career professionals, some even online. Nevertheless, comparatively few new PhDs graduate in Futures Studies each year.
The field currently faces the great challenge of creating a coherent conceptual framework, codified into a well-documented curriculum (or curricula) featuring widely accepted and consistent concepts and theoretical paradigms linked to quantitative and qualitative methods, exemplars of those research methods, and guidelines for their ethical and appropriate application within society. As an indication that previously disparate intellectual dialogues have in fact started converging into a recognizable discipline, at least six solidly-researched and well-accepted first attempts to synthesize a coherent framework for the field have appeared: Eleonora Masini (sk)'s Why Futures Studies?, James Dator 's Advancing Futures Studies, Ziauddin Sardar 's Rescuing all of our Futures, Sohail Inayatullah 's Questioning the future, Richard A. Slaughter 's The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, a collection of essays by senior practitioners, and Wendell Bell 's two-volume work, The Foundations of Futures Studies.
PROBABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY
Some aspects of the future, such as celestial mechanics , are highly predictable, and may even be described by relatively simple mathematical models. At present however, science has yielded only a special minority of such "easy to predict" physical processes. Theories such as chaos theory , nonlinear science and standard evolutionary theory have allowed us to understand many complex systems as contingent (sensitively dependent on complex environmental conditions) and stochastic (random within constraints), making the vast majority of future events unpredictable, in any specific case.
Not surprisingly, the tension between predictability and unpredictability is a source of controversy and conflict among futures studies scholars and practitioners. Some argue that the future is essentially unpredictable, and that "the best way to predict the future is to create it." Others believe, as Flechtheim, that advances in science, probability, modeling and statistics will allow us to continue to improve our understanding of probable futures, while this area presently remains less well developed than methods for exploring possible and preferable futures.
As an example, consider the process of electing the president of the United States. At one level we observe that any U.S. citizen over 35 may run for president, so this process may appear too unconstrained for useful prediction. Yet further investigation demonstrates that only certain public individuals (current and former presidents and vice presidents, senators, state governors, popular military commanders, mayors of very large cities, etc.) receive the appropriate "social credentials" that are historical prerequisites for election. Thus with a minimum of effort at formulating the problem for statistical prediction, a much reduced pool of candidates can be described, improving our probabilistic foresight. Applying further statistical intelligence to this problem, we can observe that in certain election prediction markets such as the Iowa Electronic Markets , reliable forecasts have been generated over long spans of time and conditions, with results superior to individual experts or polls. Such markets, which may be operated publicly or as an internal market , are just one of several promising frontiers in predictive futures research.
Such improvements in the predictability of individual events do not though, from a complexity theory viewpoint, address the unpredictability inherent in dealing with entire systems, which emerge from the interaction between multiple individual events.
Futurology is described as pseudoscience by some sources.
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In terms of methodology, futures practitioners employ a wide range of approaches, models and methods, in both theory and practice, many of which are derived from or informed by other academic or professional disciplines , including social sciences such as economics, psychology, sociology, religious studies, cultural studies, history, geography, and political science; physical and life sciences such as physics, chemistry, astronomy, biology; mathematics, including statistics, game theory and econometrics; applied disciplines such as engineering, computer sciences, and business management (particularly strategy).
Given its unique objectives and material, the practice of futures studies only rarely features employment of the scientific method in the sense of controlled, repeatable and verifiable experiments with highly standardized methodologies. However, many futurists are informed by scientific techniques or work primarily within scientific domains. Borrowing from history, the futurist might project patterns observed in past civilizations upon present-day society to model what might happen in the future, or borrowing from technology, the futurist may model possible social and cultural responses to an emerging technology based on established principles of the diffusion of innovation. In short, the futures practitioner enjoys the synergies of an interdisciplinary laboratory.
As the plural term “futures” suggests, one of the fundamental assumptions in futures studies is that the future is plural not singular. That is, the future consists not of one inevitable future that is to be “predicted,” but rather of multiple alternative futures of varying likelihood which may be derived and described, and about which it is impossible to say with certainty which one will occur. The primary effort in futures studies, then, is to identify and describe alternative futures in order to better understand the driving forces of the present or the structural dynamics of a particular subject or subjects. The exercise of identifying alternative futures includes collecting quantitative and qualitative data about the possibility, probability, and desirability of change. The plural term "futures" in futures studies denotes both the rich variety of alternative futures, including the subset of preferable futures (normative futures), that can be studied, as well as the tenet that the future is many.
At present, the general futures studies model has been summarized as being concerned with "three Ps and a W", or possible, probable, and preferable futures, plus wildcards , which are low probability but high impact events (positive or negative). Many futurists, however, do not use the wild card approach. Rather, they use a methodology called Emerging Issues Analysis . It searches for the drivers of change, issues that are likely to move from unknown to the known, from low impact to high impact.
In terms of technique, futures practitioners originally concentrated on extrapolating present technological , economic or social trends , or on attempting to predict future trends. Over time, the discipline has come to put more and more focus on the examination of social systems and uncertainties , to the end of articulating scenarios . The practice of scenario development facilitates the examination of worldviews and assumptions through the causal layered analysis method (and others), the creation of preferred visions of the future, and the use of exercises such as backcasting to connect the present with alternative futures. Apart from extrapolation and scenarios, many dozens of methods and techniques are used in futures research (see below).
The general practice of futures studies also sometimes includes the articulation of normative or preferred futures, and a major thread of practice involves connecting both extrapolated (exploratory) and normative research to assist individuals and organizations to model preferred futures amid shifting social changes. Practitioners use varying proportions of collaboration, creativity and research to derive and define alternative futures, and to the degree that a “preferred” future might be sought, especially in an organizational context, techniques may also be deployed to develop plans or strategies for directed future shaping or implementation of a preferred future.
While some futurists are not concerned with assigning probability to future scenarios, other futurists find probabilities useful in certain situations, such as when probabilities stimulate thinking about scenarios within organizations . When dealing with the three Ps and a W model, estimates of probability are involved with two of the four central concerns (discerning and classifying both probable and wildcard events), while considering the range of possible futures, recognizing the plurality of existing alternative futures, characterizing and attempting to resolve normative disagreements on the future, and envisioning and creating preferred futures are other major areas of scholarship. Most estimates of probability in futures studies are normative and qualitative, though significant progress on statistical and quantitative methods (technology and information growth curves, cliometrics, predictive psychology, prediction markets , crowdvoting forecasts, etc.) has been made in recent decades.
Main article: Futures techniques
While forecasting – i.e., attempts to predict future states from current trends – is a common methodology, professional scenarios often rely on "backcasting ": asking what changes in the present would be required to arrive at envisioned alternative future states. For example, the Policy Reform and Eco-Communalism scenarios developed by the Global Scenario Group rely on the backcasting method. Practitioners of futures studies classify themselves as futurists (or foresight practitioners).
Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting methods including:
* Anticipatory thinking protocols:
Causal layered analysis (CLA)
* Education and Learning
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
Futurists use scenarios – alternative possible futures – as an important tool. To some extent, people can determine what they consider probable or desirable using qualitative and quantitative methods. By looking at a variety of possibilities one comes closer to shaping the future, rather than merely predicting it. Shaping alternative futures starts by establishing a number of scenarios. Setting up scenarios takes place as a process with many stages. One of those stages involves the study of trends. A trend persists long-term and long-range; it affects many societal groups, grows slowly and appears to have a profound basis. In contrast, a fad operates in the short term, shows the vagaries of fashion , affects particular societal groups, and spreads quickly but superficially.
Sample predicted futures range from predicted ecological catastrophes
, through a utopian future where the poorest human being lives in what
present-day observers would regard as wealth and comfort, through the
transformation of humanity into a posthuman life-form, to the
destruction of all life on
Futurists have a decidedly mixed reputation and a patchy track record at successful prediction. For reasons of convenience, they often extrapolate present technical and societal trends and assume they will develop at the same rate into the future; but technical progress and social upheavals, in reality, take place in fits and starts and in different areas at different rates.
Many 1950s futurists predicted commonplace space tourism by the year 2000, but ignored the possibilities of ubiquitous, cheap computers . On the other hand, many forecasts have portrayed the future with some degree of accuracy. Current futurists often present multiple scenarios that help their audience envision what "may" occur instead of merely "predicting the future". They claim that understanding potential scenarios helps individuals and organizations prepare with flexibility.
Many corporations use futurists as part of their risk management strategy, for horizon scanning and emerging issues analysis, and to identify wild cards – low probability, potentially high-impact risks. Every successful and unsuccessful business engages in futuring to some degree – for example in research and development, innovation and market research, anticipating competitor behavior and so on.
WEAK SIGNALS, THE FUTURE SIGN AND WILD CARDS
In futures research "weak signals" may be understood as advanced, noisy and socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action. There is some confusion about the definition of weak signal by various researchers and consultants. Sometimes it is referred as future oriented information, sometimes more like emerging issues. The confusion has been partly clarified with the concept 'the future sign', by separating signal, issue and interpretation of the future sign.
"Wild cards" refer to low-probability and high-impact events, such as existential risks . This concept may be embedded in standard foresight projects and introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which relevant foresight information might be inferred. Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals are considered as synonyms, which they are not.
A long-running tradition in various cultures , and especially in the media , involves various spokespersons making predictions for the upcoming year at the beginning of the year. These predictions sometimes base themselves on current trends in culture (music, movies, fashion, politics); sometimes they make hopeful guesses as to what major events might take place over the course of the next year.
Some of these predictions come true as the year unfolds, though many fail. When predicted events fail to take place, the authors of the predictions often state that misinterpretation of the "signs " and portents may explain the failure of the prediction.
Marketers have increasingly started to embrace futures studies, in an effort to benefit from an increasingly competitive marketplace with fast production cycles, using such techniques as trendspotting as popularized by Faith Popcorn .
TREND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
Trends come in different sizes. A mega-trend extends over many generations, and in cases of climate, mega-trends can cover periods prior to human existence. They describe complex interactions between many factors. The increase in population from the palaeolithic period to the present provides an example.
Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects, beliefs or actions that have the potential to grow and eventually go mainstream in the future.
Very often, trends relate to one another the same way as a tree-trunk
relates to branches and twigs. For example, a well-documented movement
toward equality between men and women might represent a branch trend.
The trend toward reducing differences in the salaries of men and women
Life-cycle Of A Trend
When a potential trend gets enough confirmation in the various media, surveys or questionnaires to show that it has an increasingly accepted value, behavior or technology , it becomes accepted as a bona fide trend. Trends can also gain confirmation by the existence of other trends perceived as springing from the same branch. Some commentators claim that when 15% to 25% of a given population integrates an innovation, project, belief or action into their daily life then a trend becomes mainstream. General Hype Cycle used to visualize technological life stages of maturity, adoption, and social application.
Life Cycle Of Technologies
Because new advances in technology have the potential to reshape our society, one of the jobs of a futurist is to follow these developments and consider their implications. However, the latest innovations take time to make an impact. Every new technology goes through its own life cycle of maturity, adoption, and social application that must be taken into consideration before a probable vision of the future can be created.
Education in the field of futures studies has taken place for some
time. Beginning in the
* conceptualize more just and sustainable human and planetary futures. * develop knowledge and skills of methods and tools used to help people understand, map, and influence the future by exploring probable and preferred futures. * understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures. * conscientize responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.
Thorough documentation of the history of futures education exists, for example in the work of Richard A. Slaughter (2004), David Hicks, Ivana Milojević to name a few.
While futures studies remains a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that offer certificates and incorporate futures studies into other degrees, (for example in planning , business, environmental studies, economics , development studies, science and technology studies). Various formal Masters-level programs exist on six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around the world have incorporated futures studies. A recent survey documented approximately 50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level.
The largest Futures Studies program in the world is at Tamkang University , Taiwan. Futures Studies is a required course at the undergraduate level, with between three and five thousand students taking classes on an annual basis. Housed in the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies is an MA Program. Only ten students are accepted annually in the program. Associated with the program is the Journal of Futures Studies.
The longest running
As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around the world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. The World Futures Studies Federation has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary and secondary graduate futures studies programs.
Organizations such as Teach The
APPLICATIONS OF FORESIGHT AND SPECIFIC FIELDS
GENERAL APPLICABILITY AND USE OF FORESIGHT PRODUCTS
Several corporations and government agencies utilize foresight products to both better understand potential risks and prepare for potential opportunities. Several government agencies publish material for internal stakeholders as well as make that material available to broader public. Examples of this include the US Congressional Budget Office long term budget projections, the National Intelligence Center, and the United Kingdom Government Office for Science. Much of this material is used by policy makers to inform policy decisions and government agencies to develop long term plan. Several corporations, particularly those with long product development lifecycles, utilize foresight and future studies products and practitioners in the development of their business strategies. The Shell Corporation is one such entity. Foresight professionals and their tools are increasingly being utilized in both the private and public areas to help leaders deal with an increasingly complex and interconnected world.
FASHION AND DESIGN
Foresight and futures thinking are rapidly being adopted by the design industry to insure more sustainable, robust and humanistic products. Design, much like future studies is an interdisciplinary field that considers global trends, challenges and opportunities to foster innovation. Designers are thus adopting futures methodologies including scenarios, trend forecasting, and futures research.
Holistic thinking that incorporates strategic, innovative and anticipatory solutions gives designers the tools necessary to navigate complex problems and develop novel future enhancing and visionary solutions.
The Association for Professional Futurists has also held meetings discussing the ways in which Design Thinking and Futures Thinking intersect and benefit one another.
IMPERIAL CYCLES AND WORLD ORDER
Imperial cycles represent an "expanding pulsation" of "mathematically describable" macro-historic trend. The List of largest empires contains imperial record progression in terms of territory or percentage of world population under single imperial rule.
Chinese philosopher K\'ang Yu-wei and French demographer Georges
Vacher de Lapouge in the late 19th century were the first to stress
that the trend cannot proceed indefinitely on the definite surface of
the globe. The trend is bound to culminate in a world empire. K'ang
Yu-wei estimated that the matter will be decided in the contest
between Washington and Berlin;
Vacher de Lapouge foresaw this contest
Four later anthropologists—Hornell Hart, Raoul Naroll , Louis Morano, and Robert Carneiro —researched the expanding imperial cycles. They reached the same conclusion that a world empire is not only pre-determined but close at hand and attempted to estimate the time of its appearance.
As foresight has expanded to include a broader range of social concerns all levels and types of education have been addressed, including formal and informal education. Many countries are beginning to implement Foresight in their Education policy. A few programs are listed below:
* Finland's FinnSight 2015 - Implementation began in 2006 and
though at the time was not referred to as "Foresight" they tend to
display the characteristics of a foresight program.
* Singapore's Ministry of Education Master plan for Information
Wendell Bell and Ed Cornish acknowledge science fiction as a catalyst
to future studies, conjuring up visions of tomorrow. Science
fiction’s potential to provide an “imaginative social vision” is
its contribution to futures studies and public perspective. Productive
sci-fi presents plausible, normative scenarios. Jim Dator attributes
the foundational concepts of “images of the future” to Wendell
Bell, for clarifying Fred Polak’s concept in Images of the Future,
as it applies to futures studies. Similar to futures studies’
scenarios thinking, empirically supported visions of the future are a
window into what the future could be. Pamela Sargent states,
Several world governments have formalized strategic foresight
agencies to encourage long range strategic societal planning. Most
notably Singapore's Centre for Strategic Futures as part of the
Strategy Group reporting directly to the Prime Minister. Their mission
is to position the Singapore government to navigate emerging strategic
challenges and harness potential opportunities. Sheikh Mohammed bin
Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai announced in September 2016
that all government ministries were to appoint Directors of Future
Planning. Sheikh Mohammed described the UAE Strategy for the
RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT
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Further information: Global catastrophic risk
Foresight is also applied when studying potential risks to society
and how to effectively deal with them. These risks may arise from
the development and adoption of emerging technologies and/or social
* Houston Foresight Program ,
University of Houston
PRIMARY PROGRAMS (ENGLISH)
* Swinburne U. of Technology, Aus. Graduate School of Entrep. MS,PhD
in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.)
* Ontario College of Art and Design, MDes in Strategic Foresight and
* Aarhus University, School of
PRIMARY PROGRAMS (OTHER LANGUAGES)
* External University of Colombia, MS in Strategic Thinking and
Foresight (Bus. Admin.).
* CNAM, Dept of Management, Innovation, and Prospective. PhD in
Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin, Engrg).
* Free University of Berlin. and Institute of Future. MA in Future
* University of Kerala. Dept. of Futures Studies. MPhil and
Ph.D.Phil in Futures Studies (Applied Sciences & Technology).
* Imam Khomeini International University. PhD in Futurology (Faculty
of Engrg and Technology).
* University of Tehran. PhD in Futures Studies (Faculty of New
Sciences and Technologies).
* Leonardo Da Vinci Online University, G. d\'Annunzio U. MS in
Scenarios for Innovation Mgmt (Bus. Admin.).
* Monterrey Inst. of Tech, EGAP Center for Govt & Public Policy. MS
in Strategic Foresight (Govt & Public Policy).
* Technical U. of Lisbon, ISEG (School of Econ & Mgmt), MS in
Foresight, Strategy "> In the introduction to The Left Hand of
Ursula K. Le Guin
A survey of 108 futurists found that they share a variety of assumptions, including in their description of the present as a critical moment in an historical transformation, in their recognition and belief in complexity, and in their being motivated by change and having a desire for an active role bringing change (versus simply being involved in forecasting).
Main article: List of futurologists
APF\'S LIST OF MOST SIGNIFICANT FUTURES WORKS
The Association for Professional Futurists recognizes the Most Significant Futures Works for the purpose of identifying and rewarding the work of foresight professionals and others whose work illuminates aspects of the future.
* L’Art de la conjecture (The Art of Conjecture) (Bertrand de
Jouvenel ) (2008)
Limits to Growth (
Donella Meadows ) (2008)
* The Art of the Long View (
Peter Schwartz (futurist) ) (2008)
* Foundations of Futures Studies (
Wendell Bell ) (2008)
* The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human
Intelligence (Ray Kurzweil) (2008)
* Futures Research Methodology Version 2.0 (
Jerome C. Glenn ,
Theodore J. Gordon, eds.) (2008)
* Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (
OTHER NOTABLE FORESIGHT BOOKS
* Physics of the Impossible: A Scientific Exploration into the World
of Phasers, Force Fields, Teleportation, and
PERIODICALS AND JOURNALS
* Foresight journal
Journal of Futures Studies
* World Futures Review
Technological Forecasting and
FORESIGHT PROFESSIONAL NETWORKS
PUBLIC-SECTOR FORESIGHT ORGANIZATIONS
National Intelligence Council
NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts
NON-GOVERNMENTAL FORESIGHT ORGANIZATIONS
* ^ "Futurology". Wordnet Search 3.1. Princeton University.
Retrieved 16 March 2013.
* ^ A B Wells, H.G. (1932) 1987. Wanted: Professors of Foresight!
Futures Research Quarterly V3N1 (Spring): p. 89-91.
* ^ "SCIENCE GLOSSARY". tripod.com.
* ^ "What is STEEP Analysis?". PESTLE Analysis. Retrieved 6 March
* ^ Galtung, Johan and Inayatullah, Sohail (1997). Macrohistory and
Macrohistorians. Westport, Ct: Praeger.
* ^ Khaldun, Ibn (1967), The Muqaddimah, Trans. Franz Rosenthal,
ed. N.J. Dawood. Princeton:
Princeton University Press
* ^ "Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid announces UAE Strategy for the
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