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Horizon Scanning
Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice. Such domains include agriculture, environmental studies, health care, biosecurity, and food safety. Some sources mention HS as an alternative name for environmental scanning (ES), or view HS as a subset of ES, or at least suggest ES to have a similar goal to HS. In summary, ES has key differences to HS. ES is rather concerned to provide industry specific information for short-term decision making in a competitive environment. Etymology One of the first usages of the term ''horizon scanning'' as related to futures studies appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in information technology and forecasting the year 2005. Then, ''horizon scanning'' was used to name detection and early evaluation of health care technologies in a European works ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Futures Studies
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends. Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futurology concerns a much bigger and ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Future-oriented Technology Analysis
Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences. It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym. Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning. Definitions Methods {, class="wikitable sortable" , + Methods and their families{{cite journal , title=Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods , journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change , date=1 March 2004 , volume=71 , issue=3 , pages=287–303 , doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004 , s2cid=18904868 , url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162503001380 , language=en , issn=0040-1625 , - ! Method !! Family , - , Agent modeling , , Modeling and simulation , - , Analytical hierarchy ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Swedish Defence Research Agency
The Swedish Defence Research Agency ( sv, Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut, FOI; literal translation: ''Total Defence Research Institute'') is a government agency in Sweden for defence research. FOI has its headquarters in Kista (Stockholm). Other FOI offices or research centres are located in Grindsjön, Linköping, and Umeå. History FOI was created in 2001 by combining the Swedish National Defence Research Institute (FOA) with the National Aeronautical Research Institute (FFA). The first of these agencies, FFA, had been created in 1940 in Bromma, Stockholm as a governmental research institute for the Swedish aviation industry, large parts of which were devoted to military aircraft. The second, FOA, had been created in 1945 from three existing organisations: * The Swedish Armed Forces Chemical Institute (''Försvarsväsendets kemiska anstalt'', FKA), a government agency created in 1937 and located in Ursvik, Sundbyberg Municipality. FKA had predecessors in chemical warfare ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Trend Analysis
Trend analysis is the widespread practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern. In some fields of study, the term has more formally defined meanings. Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate uncertain events in the past, such as how many ancient kings probably ruled between two dates, based on data such as the average years which other known kings reigned. Project management In project management, trend analysis is a mathematical technique that uses historical results to predict future outcome. This is achieved by tracking variances in cost and schedule performance. In this context, it is a project management quality control tool. Statistics In statistics, trend analysis often refers to techniques for extracting an underlying pattern of behavior in a time series which would otherwise be partly or nearly completely hidden by noise. If the trend can be assumed to be linear, trend analysis can be undertaken wit ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Umweltbundesamt
The Umweltbundesamt (; UBA, ) is the ''German Environment Agency''. Together with the Bundesamt für Naturschutz, the Bundesamt für kerntechnische Entsorgungssicherheit and the Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz, it operates under the jurisdiction of the Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection (german: Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, nukleare Sicherheit und Verbraucherschutz, ), abbreviated BMUV, is a cabinet-level min .... The tasks of the office are primarily “the scientific support of the Federal Government (including the Federal Ministeries for the Environment, Health, Economy and Climate Protection, Education and Research, Transport and Digital Infrastructure), the implementation of environmental laws (e.g. emission rights trade, admission of chemicals, medicinal and pesticides) and the public information on environmental ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Government Office For Science
The Government Office for Science is an science advisory group that is part of the British government. The organisation advises the UK Government on policy and decision-making based on science and long-term thinking. It is led by the Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government, Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA), Patrick Vallance, Sir Patrick Vallance who reports to the prime minister and Cabinet of the United Kingdom, Cabinet. The office is based in the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy where it works with other parts of the Department, including the Science and Research Group, which funds research through UK Research Councils, Research Councils. Networking The Government Office for Science works collaboratively, using formal and informal networks, including colleagues in other departments and external experts. Together, they create and promote guidance and frameworks describing how departments can use the natural and social sciences, engineering ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cabinet Office
The Cabinet Office is a department of His Majesty's Government responsible for supporting the prime minister and Cabinet. It is composed of various units that support Cabinet committees and which co-ordinate the delivery of government objectives via other departments. As of December 2021, it has over 10,200 staff, most of whom are civil servants, some of whom work in Whitehall. Staff working in the Prime Minister's Office are part of the Cabinet Office. Responsibilities The Cabinet Office's core functions are: * Supporting collective government, helping to ensure the effective development, coordination and implementation of policy; * Supporting the National Security Council and the Joint Intelligence Organisation, coordinating the government's response to crises and managing the UK's cyber security; * Promoting efficiency and reform across government through innovation, transparency, better procurement and project management, by transforming the delivery of services, and impr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Backcasting
Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. Robinson from the University of Waterloo in 1990.Robinson, John B. 1990. Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict ''Futures'', vol. 22, issue 8, pp. 820–842. The fundamental question of backcasting asks: "if we want to attain a certain goal, what actions must be taken to get there?" While forecasting involves predicting the future based on current trend analysis, backcasting approaches the challenge of discussing the future from the opposite direction; it is "a method in which the future desired conditions are envisioned and steps are then defined to attain those conditions, rather than taking steps that are merely a continuation of present methods extrapolated into the future". In statistics and data analysis, back ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Wildlife Conservation Society
The Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) is a non-governmental organization headquartered at the Bronx Zoo in New York City, that aims to conserve the world's largest wild places in 14 priority regions. Founded in 1895 as the New York Zoological Society (NYZS), the organization is now led by President and CEO Cristián Samper. WCS manages four New York City wildlife parks in addition to the Bronx Zoo: the Central Park Zoo, New York Aquarium, Prospect Park Zoo and Queens Zoo. Together these parks receive 4 million visitors per year."About Us" ''WCS.org'', accessed 23 November 2020 All of the New York City facilities are accredited by the (AZA). H ...
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Scenario Planning
Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. In the most common application of the method, analysts generate simulation games for policy makers. The method combines known facts, such as demographics, geography and mineral reserves, with military, political, and industrial information, and key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental, and political ("STEEP") trends. In business applications, the emphasis on understanding the behavior of opponents has been reduced while more attention is now paid to changes in the natural environment. At Royal Dutch Shell for example, scenario planning has been described as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world prior to formulating ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Trend Analysis
Trend analysis is the widespread practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern. In some fields of study, the term has more formally defined meanings. Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate uncertain events in the past, such as how many ancient kings probably ruled between two dates, based on data such as the average years which other known kings reigned. Project management In project management, trend analysis is a mathematical technique that uses historical results to predict future outcome. This is achieved by tracking variances in cost and schedule performance. In this context, it is a project management quality control tool. Statistics In statistics, trend analysis often refers to techniques for extracting an underlying pattern of behavior in a time series which would otherwise be partly or nearly completely hidden by noise. If the trend can be assumed to be linear, trend analysis can be undertaken wit ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Delphi Method
} The Delphi method or Delphi technique ( ; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets. Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator or change agent provides an anonymised summary of the experts' forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
