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Strategic Foresight
Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight.Rohrbeck, Rene (2010) ''Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm'', Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag, Springer, Definition and idea Strategy is a high level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty. Strategic foresight happens when any planner uses scanned inputs, forecasts, alternative futures exploration, analysis and feedback to produce or alter plans and actions of the organization. Scenario planning plays a prominent role in strategic foresight. The flowchart to the right provides a process for classifying a phenomenon as a scenario in the intuitive logics tradition and differentiates it from many other techniques and approaches to planning. Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight on ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Futures Studies
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends. Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futurology concerns a much bigger and ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Journal Of Futures Studies
The ''Journal of Futures Studies'' (JFS) is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal in the discipline of futures studies. It is published by Tamkang University Press on behalf of the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies at Tamkang University in Tamsui, Taipei, in Taiwan. The journal is published quarterly, in the months of February, May, August, and November. History JFS was first published in November 1996. Its publication history can be divided into the following periods: * November 1996-May 2000 (first four volumes): The journal was published twice a year, in November and May respectively, and each volume of the journal contained one year's November issue and the next year's May issue. * August 2000-present: The journal has been published quarterly, with a given volume featuring the issues from August and November of one year and February and May of the next year. Reception and popularity The SCImago Journal Rank database says that the h-index of the journal (restricted ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Foresight (futures Studies Journal)
''Foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy'' is an international bi-monthly journal published by the Emerald Publishing Group. The name connotes the term " foresight" as it is used in futures studies. Established in 1999, the journal provides a powerful framework and set of techniques that allow for understanding trends and drivers shaping the world, exploring alternative futures, setting priorities and formulating strategies for action. Foresight is a valuable source for futurists and foresight practitioners who should be at the forefront of discovering practical ways to manage 21st century life under growing complexity with a long-term perspective. The journal offers a much-needed forum for sound thinking about the future and socio-technological innovations, and focuses on themes and issues shaping the future, new quantitative and qualitative methods, as well as case studies with novel approaches. The journal is edited by Prof.Dr. Ozcan Saritas si ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Futures & Foresight Science
''Futures & Foresight Science'' is an academic journal published by Wiley. The journal publishes articles dedicated to advancing methods that aid anticipating the future. The journal was established in 2019 by Professor George Wright (Editor in Chief), University of Strathclyde, Professor George Cairns (Associate Editor), Queensland University of Technology and Professor Heiko von der Gracht (Associate Editor), Steinbeis University Berlin. Areas of interest * Scenario planning * Delphi method * Forecasting * Expert judgement in anticipating the future * Combining group and individual judgements * Combinations of futures methodologies * Corporate Foresight See also * ''Technological Forecasting and Social Change'' * ''Futures'' * ''Journal of Futures Studies The ''Journal of Futures Studies'' (JFS) is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal in the discipline of futures studies. It is published by Tamkang University Press on behalf of the Graduate Institute of Futures ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Futures (journal)
''Futures'' is an international, peer-reviewed, multidisciplinary journal concerned with futures studies. It is published by Elsevier. The editor is Ted Fuller. It is one of the journals that in the 1970s contributed to creating a debate on the topics of sustainable development. See also *Technological Forecasting and Social Change * Foresight * Futures & Foresight Science *Journal of Futures Studies *European Journal of Futures Research The ''European Journal of Futures Research'' is an open access academic journal published by Springer Science+Business Media covering futures studies. It was established in 2013 and the editor-in-chief is Gerhard de Haan (Free University of Berlin) ... References External linksElsevier publishing Futurology journals English-language journals {{social-science-journal-stub ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Technological Forecasting And Social Change
''Technological Forecasting and Social Change'' (formerly ''Technological Forecasting'') is a peer-reviewed academic journal published by Elsevier which discusses futures studies, technology assessment, and technological forecasting. Articles focus on methodology and actual practice, and have been published since 1969. The editors-in-chief are Scott Cunningham (University of Strathclyde) and Mei-Chih Hu (National Tsing Hua University). According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2021 impact factor of 10.884. See also * ''Futures'' * ''Foresight'' *'' Futures & Foresight Science'' *''Journal of Futures Studies The ''Journal of Futures Studies'' (JFS) is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal in the discipline of futures studies. It is published by Tamkang University Press on behalf of the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies at Tamkang University i ...'' References External links * Futurology journals Elsevier academic journals English-language ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Technology Scouting
Technology scouting is an element of technology management in which :(1) emerging technologies are identified, :(2) technology related information is channeled into an organization, and :(3) supports the acquisition of technologies. It is a starting point of a long term and interactive matching process between external technologies and internal requirements of an existing organization for strategic purposes. This matching may also be aided by technology roadmapping. Technology scouting is also known to be part of competitive intelligence, which firms apply as a tool of competitive strategy. It can also be regarded as a method of technology forecasting or in the broader context also an element of corporate foresight.Rohrbeck, Rene (2010) ''Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm'', Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg and New York, Technology scouting may also be applied as an element of an open innovation approach. Technology scouting is seen as ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Technology Forecasting
Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits. Today, most countries are experiencing huge social and economic changes, which heavily rely on technology development. By analyzing these changes, government and economic institutions could make plans for future developments. However, not all of historical data can be used for technology forecasting, forecasters also need to adopt advanced technology and quantitative modeling from experts’ researches and conclusions. History Technology forecasting has existed more than a century, but it developed to an e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Strategic Foresight Group
Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) is a think tank based in India that works on global issues. It was established in 2002. SFG has worked with governments and national institutions of 60 countries from around the world. It produces scenarios and policy concepts that have been discussed in the United Nations Security Council, Parliament of India, the European Parliament, Oxford University, Cambridge University, House of Commons of the United Kingdom, House of Lords, World Bank, World Economic Forum, United Nations Alliance of Civilizations, and others. Sundeep Waslekar is the President of Strategic Foresight Group. Ilmas Futehally is the Vice President and Executive Director. History The founding of SFG coincided with a period of oscillating developments in India-Pakistan relations. SFG produced an assessment of the cost of conflict between the two countries. India's then External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, in a suo moto letter addressed to the President of SFG, described i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Science Fiction Prototyping
Science fiction prototyping (SFP) refers to the idea of using science fiction to describe and explore the implications of futuristic technologies and the social structures enabled by them. Similar terms are design fiction, speculative design, and critical design. History and progress The idea was introduced by Brian David Johnson in 2010 who, at the time, was a futurist at Intel working on the challenge his company faced anticipating the market needs for integrated circuits at the end of their 7–10 years design and production cycle. The roots for Science Fiction Prototyping can be traced back to two papers, the first by Callaghan et-al “''Pervasive Computing and Urban Development: Issues for the individual and Society''”, presented at the 2004 United Nations World Urban Forum which used short stories as a means to convey potential future threats of technology to society and the second, by Egerton et-al "''Using Multiple Personas In Service Robots To Improve Exploration St ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Reference Class Forecasting
Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics. Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. Discussion of which reference class to use when forecasting a given situation is known as the reference class problem. Overview Kahneman and Tversky Decision Research Technical Report PTR-1042-77-6. In found that human judgment is generally optimistic due to overconfidence and insufficient consideration of distributional information about outcomes. People tend to underestimate the costs, completion times, and risks of planned actions, whereas they tend to overestimate the benefits of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
