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Delphi Method
} The Delphi method or Delphi technique ( ; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets. Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator or change agent provides an anonymised summary of the experts' forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision-making
In psychology, decision-making (also spelled decision making and decisionmaking) is regarded as the Cognition, cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of action among several possible alternative options. It could be either Rationality, rational or irrational. The decision-making process is a reasoning process based on assumptions of value (ethics and social sciences), values, preferences and beliefs of the decision-maker. Every decision-making process produces a final choice, which may or may not prompt action. Research about decision-making is also published under the label problem solving, particularly in European psychological research. Overview Decision-making can be regarded as a Problem solving, problem-solving activity yielding a solution deemed to be optimal, or at least satisfactory. It is therefore a process which can be more or less Rationality, rational or Irrationality, irrational and can be based on explicit knowledge, explicit or tacit ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Horizon Project
The ''Horizon Project'' (or ''Horizon Report'') is an initiative by EDUCAUSE to chart emerging technologies and trends impacting the future of higher education across domains such as teaching and learning and information security. Drawing on insights from a global panel of leaders from across the higher education landscape, the objective of each Horizon Report is to shape decision-making among higher education professionals by helping them imagine a range of possible futures and think through the present-day implications of those futures. The Horizon Project was launched in 2002 by Laurence F. Johnson, CEO of NMC, and since the 2018 edition has been published by EDUCAUSE. NMC Horizon Project History Starting in 2005, the NMC-published Horizon reports were collaboratively developed by co-authors Johnson and Rachel S. Smith. In 2006, Alan Levine joined the production team, and Keene Haywood joined in 2010. In 2011, Samantha Adams succeeded Smith as the project's lead researcher ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
TechCast Project
The TechCast Project uses collective intelligence to forecast emerging technologies, social trends and wild cards for planners and decision makers. Founded at George Washington University years ago, their website (www.techcastproject.com) pools background data and the knowledge of 130 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields and to assess their economic and social impact. Results are subscribed to corporations, governments, and the public around the globe. The TechCast forecasting system was developed by Professor William E. Halal and his associates at George Washington University and George Mason University. An earlier version called "The GW Forecast" was conducted by mail, but the online version has been operating since 1998. TechCast researchers and editors scan the literature and media, interview authorities, and draw on various other sources to identify trends and background data on roughly 100 forecasts covering the entire strategic landscape. This data is s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
E-democracy
E-democracy (a combination of the words electronic and democracy), also known as digital democracy or Internet democracy, is the use of information and communication technology (ICT) in political and governance processes. The term is believed to have been coined by digital activist Steven Clift. E-democracy incorporates 21st-century information and communications technology to promote democracy; such technologies include civic technology and government technology. It is a form of government in which all adult citizens are presumed to be eligible to participate equally in the proposal, development and creation of laws. E-democracy encompasses social, economic and cultural conditions that enable the free and equal practice of political self-determination. Goals Expanding democracy The Internet has several attributes that encourage thinking about it as a democratic medium. Electronic voting should be done with a proper purpose and with achieving a common constitution ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Technological Forecasting And Social Change
''Technological Forecasting and Social Change'' (formerly ''Technological Forecasting'') is a peer-reviewed academic journal published by Elsevier which discusses futures studies, technology assessment, and technological forecasting. Articles focus on methodology and actual practice, and have been published since 1969. The editors-in-chief are Scott Cunningham (University of Strathclyde) and Mei-Chih Hu (National Tsing Hua University). According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2021 impact factor of 10.884. See also * ''Futures'' * ''Foresight'' *'' Futures & Foresight Science'' *''Journal of Futures Studies The ''Journal of Futures Studies'' (JFS) is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal in the discipline of futures studies. It is published by Tamkang University Press on behalf of the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies at Tamkang University i ...'' References External links * Futurology journals Elsevier academic journals English-language ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
ELAC Action Plans
eLAC in international relations, is an intergovernmental strategy that conceives of information and communications technologies (ICTs) as instruments for economic development and social inclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean. It is based on a public-private sector partnership"Foresight tools for participative policy-making in inter-governmental processes in developing countries: Lessons learned from the eLAC Policy Priorities Delphi" Martin Hilbert, Ian Miles and Julia Othmer (2009), Technological Forecasting and Social Change [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Economic Trend
*all the economic indicators that are the subject of economic forecasting **see also: econometrics *general trends in the economy, see: economic history. *general trends in the academic field of economics, see: history of economics History (derived ) is the systematic study and the documentation of the human activity. The time period of event before the History of writing#Inventions of writing, invention of writing systems is considered prehistory. "History" is an umbr ... {{disambiguation Economics ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Automation
Automation describes a wide range of technologies that reduce human intervention in processes, namely by predetermining decision criteria, subprocess relationships, and related actions, as well as embodying those predeterminations in machines. Automation has been achieved by various means including mechanical, hydraulic, pneumatic, electrical, electronic devices, and computers, usually in combination. Complicated systems, such as modern factories, airplanes, and ships typically use combinations of all of these techniques. The benefit of automation includes labor savings, reducing waste, savings in electricity costs, savings in material costs, and improvements to quality, accuracy, and precision. Automation includes the use of various equipment and control systems such as machinery, processes in factories, boilers, and heat-treating ovens, switching on telephone networks, steering, and stabilization of ships, aircraft, and other applications and vehicles with reduced hu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Population Control
Population control is the practice of artificially maintaining the size of any population. It simply refers to the act of limiting the size of an animal population so that it remains manageable, as opposed to the act of protecting a species from excessive rates of extinction, which is referred to as conservation biology. While many abiotic and biotic factors influence population control, humans are notably influential against animal populations. Whether humans need to hunt animals for nourishment or simply neuter their pets to prevent reproduction from occurring, these activities actively manage populations. Specifically, population control plays an important role in wildlife populations. Based on the species being dealt with, there are numerous ways populations of the wild are controlled. Wildlife contraception is the act of preventing reproduction in the wild, which subsequently decreases populations. An example of this includes the maintenance of deer populations with the use o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
