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Wild Card (Foresight Research)
In a view of the future, a wild card is a low-probability, high-impact event. This concept may be introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of organizations and governments to adapt to surprises arising in turbulent (business) environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which foresight information might be inferred. Description Arguably the best known work in wild cards comes from John Petersen, the author of ''Out of The Blue – How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises''. Petersen's book articulates a series of events that due to their likelihood to surprise and potential for impact might be considered 'Wildcards'. He defines wild cards as "Low Probability, High Impact events that, were they to occur, would severely impact the human condition". Building ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Foresight (management)
Foresight is the ability to predict, or the action of predicting, what will happen or what is needed in the future. Studies suggest that much of human daily thought is directed towards potential future events. Because of this and its role in human control on the planet, the nature and evolution of foresight is an important topic in psychology. Thinking about the future is also studied under the label prospection. Recent neuroscientific, developmental, and cognitive studies have identified many commonalities to the human ability to recall past episodes. ''Science'' magazine selected new evidence for such commonalities one of the top ten scientific breakthroughs of 2007. However, there are fundamental differences between mentally travelling through time into the future (i.e., foresight) versus mentally travelling through time into the past (i.e., episodic memory).Suddendorf T. "Episodic Memory Versus Episodic Foresight: Similarities and Differences". ''Wiley Interdisciplinary Revie ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Tamkang University
Tamkang University (TKU; ) is a private university in Tamsui District, New Taipei City, Taiwan. It was founded in 1950 as a junior college of English literature. Today it is a comprehensive university with 11 colleges that serves nearly 25,000 students on four campuses (three traditional, one online). Tamkang University is Taiwan's oldest private institution of higher learning and ranked among the top 1,500 universities worldwide in the 2021 Best Global Universities Rankings by U.S. News & World Report. Over 28,000 students of 50 nationalities form a diverse student body. Tamkang has partnerships with over 100 sister universities in 28 countries. The university's main campus in historic Tamsui is noted for its scenery. Casually, members of the university community call themselves 'Tamkangians.' Tamkang University is ranked 251–300 in English Language and Literature by QS World University Rankings in 2015. History Established in 1950 as a junior college of English, Tamkang ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cascading Discontinuity Set
A cascading discontinuity set is a term related to Wild Cards ''Wild Cards'' is a series of science fiction superhero shared universe anthologies, mosaic novels, and solo novels. They are written by a collection of more than forty authors (referred to as the "Wild Cards Trust") and are edited by George ... and applied in foresight and risk management areas. It attempts to define a series of smaller, seemingly disconnected events that merge over time leading to a Wild Card-like result. References * Barber MP (2004, 2006) 'Wildcards – Signals from a Future near You'; Journal of future Studies Vol 11 No1; Tamkang University Risk management {{Economy-stub ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Black Swan Theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after they were discovered in Australia. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain: # The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology. # The non-computability of the probability of consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities). # The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. Taleb's "black swan theory" ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (; alternatively ''Nessim ''or'' Nissim''; born 12 September 1960) is a Lebanese-American essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. ''The Sunday Times'' called his 2007 book '' The Black Swan'' one of the 12 most influential books since World War II. Taleb is the author of the ''Incerto'', a five-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty published between 2001 and 2018 (of which the best-known books are ''The Black Swan'' and ''Antifragile''). He has been a professor at several universities, serving as a Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at the New York University Tandon School of Engineering since September 2008. He has been co-editor-in-chief of the academic journal ''Risk and Decision Analysis'' since September 2014. He has also been a practitioner of mathematical finance, a hedge fund manager, and a derivatives trader, and i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Black Swan (Taleb Book)
''The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable'' is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory. The book covers subjects relating to knowledge, aesthetics, as well as ways of life, and uses elements of fiction and anecdotes from the author's life to elaborate his theories. It spent 36 weeks on the ''New York Times'' best-seller list. The book is part of Taleb's five-volume series, titled the ''Incerto'', including ''Fooled by Randomness'' (2001), ''The Black Swan'' (2007–2010), ''The Bed of Procrustes'' (2010–2016), '' Antifragile'' (2012), and ''Skin in the Game'' (2018). Coping with Black Swan events A central idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict Black Swan events, but to build robustness to negative events and ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Tipping Point (sociology)
In sociology, a tipping point is a point in time when a group—or many group members—rapidly and dramatically changes its behavior by widely adopting a previously rare practice. History The phrase was first used in sociology by Morton Grodzins when he adopted the phrase from physics where it referred to the adding a small amount of weight to a balanced object until the additional weight caused the object to suddenly and completely topple, or tip. Grodzins studied integrating American neighborhoods in the early 1960s. He discovered that most of the white families remained in the neighborhood as long as the comparative number of black families remained very small. But, at a certain point, when "one too many" black families arrived, the remaining white families would move out ''en masse'' in a process known as white flight. He called that moment the "tipping point". The idea was expanded and built upon by Nobel Prize-winner Thomas Schelling in 1971. A similar idea underlies Mar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Malcolm Gladwell
Malcolm Timothy Gladwell (born 3 September 1963) is an English-born Canadian journalist, author, and public speaker. He has been a staff writer for ''The New Yorker'' since 1996. He has published seven books: '' The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference'' (2000); '' Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking'' (2005); '' Outliers: The Story of Success'' (2008); '' What the Dog Saw: And Other Adventures'' (2009), a collection of his journalism; '' David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling Giants'' (2013); '' Talking To Strangers: What We Should Know about the People We Don't Know'' (2019) and '' The Bomber Mafia: A Dream, a Temptation, and the Longest Night of the Second World War'' (2021). His first five books were on ''The New York Times'' Best Seller list. He is also the host of the podcast '' Revisionist History'' and co-founder of the podcast company Pushkin Industries. Gladwell's writings often deal with the unexpected implicat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Tipping Point
''The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference'' is the debut book by Malcolm Gladwell, first published by Little, Brown in 2000. Gladwell defines a tipping point as "the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point." The book seeks to explain and describe the "mysterious" sociological changes that mark everyday life. As Gladwell states: "Ideas and products and messages and behaviors spread like viruses do." The examples of such changes in his book include the rise in popularity and sales of Hush Puppies shoes in the mid-1990s and the steep drop in New York City's crime rate after 1990. The three rules Gladwell describes the "three rules of epidemics" (or the three "agents of change") in the tipping points of epidemics. The Law of the Few "The Law of the Few" is, as Gladwell states: "The success of any kind of social epidemic is heavily dependent on the involvement of people with a particular and rare set of social gifts." According to Gladwell, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
How Little Things Can Make A Big Difference
How may refer to: * How (greeting), a word used in some misrepresentations of Native American/First Nations speech * How, an interrogative word in English grammar Art and entertainment Literature * ''How'' (book), a 2007 book by Dov Seidman * ''HOW'' (magazine), a magazine for graphic designers * H.O.W. Journal, an American art and literary journal Music * "How", a song by The Cranberries from '' Everybody Else Is Doing It, So Why Can't We?'' * "How", a song by Maroon 5 from ''Hands All Over'' * "How", a song by Regina Spektor from ''What We Saw from the Cheap Seats'' * "How", a song by Daughter from '' Not to Disappear'' * "How?" (song), by John Lennon Other media * HOW (graffiti artist), Raoul Perre, New York graffiti muralist * ''How'' (TV series), a British children's television show * ''How'' (video game), a platform game People * How (surname) * HOW (graffiti artist), Raoul Perre, New York graffiti muralist Places * How, Cumbria, England * How, Wisconsin, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Little Brown
Little, Brown and Company is an American publishing company founded in 1837 by Charles Coffin Little and James Brown in Boston. For close to two centuries it has published fiction and nonfiction by American authors. Early lists featured Emily Dickinson's poetry and ''Bartlett's Familiar Quotations''. Since 2006 Little, Brown and Company is a division of the Hachette Book Group. 19th century Little, Brown and Company had its roots in the book selling trade. It was founded in 1837 in Boston by Charles Little and James Brown. They formed the partnership "for the purpose of Publishing, Importing, and Selling Books". It can trace its roots before that to 1784 to a bookshop owned by Ebenezer Battelle on Marlborough Street. They published works of Benjamin Franklin and George Washington and they were specialized in legal publishing and importing titles. For many years, it was the most extensive law publisher in the United States, and also the largest importer of standard English law an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Black Swan Theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after they were discovered in Australia. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain: # The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology. # The non-computability of the probability of consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities). # The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. Taleb's "black swan theory" ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
