Battle Of Avdiivka (2022–present)

The battle of Avdiivka is an ongoing military engagement between the Russian Armed Forces and Russian-controlled Donbas militias on one side and the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the other. It is being fought over the city of Avdiivka, located in the Donbas region. Fighting started when violence erupted in the Donbas again on 21 February 2022, when Russian president Vladimir Putin recognized the Donetsk People's Republic. Days later, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Avdiivka was among the first places to be attacked.

Avdiivka is one of the most fortified settlements in Ukraine and has been described as a "gateway" to nearby Russian-occupied Donetsk city. Ukraine's continued control of Avdiivka has prevented Russia from using Donetsk and its resources as a communications hub and prevented Russian breakthroughs on this axis, despite heavy fighting for over a year."Ukraine war Russia executing own retreating soldiers, US says,"
October 27, 2023, BBC News, retrieved October 27, 2023

Background

Avdiivka is an industrial city in the heart of Donetsk Oblast, located north of Donetsk city, the region's principal city. Avdiivka is home to the Avdiivka Coke Plant, the largest coke producer in Ukraine and currently serving as a fortress for Ukrainian soldiers. The city had a pre-war population of 34,000 people.

Avdiivka has been located along the front lines of the Russo-Ukrainian War since 2014, being a heavily fortified frontline settlement, replete with trench systems, firing positions, and concrete-reinforced bunkers. The 2017 battle of Avdiivka resulted in destruction in the town, though Ukrainian forces maintained control of the city against pro-Russian separatists of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Early battles

Early fighting (21 February – 17 April 2022)

Fighting began on 21 February 2022, when Russian forces alongside separatist militias renewed fighting in Avdiivka. When Russia officially started its invasion of Ukraine, Avdiivka was one of its main targets. On 13 March, Russian forces bombed the Avdiivka Coke Plant although the Russians accused Ukraine of sabotaging it. The National Police of Ukraine said on 22 March that Russia used Tornado-S MLRSs in bombardments of Avdiivka, allegedly causing civilian casualties. It was reported on 25 March that Artem Murakhovskyi, a commander of the Azov Regiment, was killed in Avdiivka.

Escalation (18 April – 27 July 2022)

On 18 April, Russia renewed its invasion on Eastern Ukraine, with both sides proclaiming the beginning of the " battle of Donbas" and Russia beginning to heavily shell and attack Avdiivka. Around 2,000 of Avdiivka's residents were forced to flee underground. Ukraine claimed to have repelled Russian advances in Avdiivka on 19 April.

During the battle, use of white phosphorus munitions by Russian forces was reported several times. Governor of Donetsk Oblast Pavlo Kyrylenko reported a phosphorus attack on the city industrial zone on 26 March, on the area of the coking plant on 26 April, and on the city center, causing several fires, the next day. On 29 April, videos of the Russian army shelling Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka with a thermobaric weapon were published. On 18 May, Avdiivka 1st school was destroyed by a Russian attack with phosphorus munitions. On May 26, Ukraine's General Staff reported that Russian forces were advancing through Avdiivka, capturing many areas in the city.

On 1 June, the DPR took control of a major highway. On 6 June, the DPR took territory near Kamianka. On 12 June, Russia again bombed the Avdiivka Coke Plant. School No. 6 was destroyed on 21 June, being the third school destroyed in Avdiivka. On 24 June, Russian forces fired on Avdiivka. Russian forces later captured Novoselivka Druha on 4 July, which is 10 km northeast of Avdiivka, in an attempt to encircle the city. On 7 July, Russian forces shelled Avdiivka for 24 hours. They hit infrastructure, a hospital, residential buildings, a bus depot, and the Avdiivka Coke Plant.

On 18 July, the DPR claimed it had "half-surrounded" Avdiivka, having blocked two of the roads leading into the town. The ''Institute for the Study of War'' (ISW) an American based non-profit think-tank, also stated that fighting north of Avdiivka had intensified on July 18. However, Igor Girkin, a Russian nationalist and regular critic of Russia's war effort in Ukraine, said that the DPR's forces were unable to make many gains due to Ukrainian artillery.

Renewed assaults and capture of Pisky (28 July 2022 – March 2023)

On 28 July, DPR and Russian forces launched an offensive to surround Avdiivka. Russian and separatist forces assaulted the towns of Krasnohorivka, Pisky, and other towns north of Avdiivka. On 31 July, the Head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration Vitalii Barabash said that only 10% of the pre-war population of Avdiivka remained, or about 2,500 people.

Ukraine said on 5 August that it lost the Butivka coal mine to Russia that was pushed to the outskirts of Avdiivka. On August 7, combat footage showed that Russian forces had reached the centre of Pisky, and they fully captured the entirety of Pisky by 24 August. In early September, several separatist units, including the Sparta Battalion and Somalia Battalion, launched an attack in the wider Avdiivka area, most importantly near Pisky. As of late September, the ''Wall Street Journal'' reported that Ukrainian forces "remain don the defensive" in Avdiivka. On 10 October, Ukraine said Russia was continuing its offensive in Avdiivka and was trying to encircle the city. In mid-January 2023, Russian and DPR forces made an attempt to capture the village of Vodyane, the action was described by a British military blogger as "calamitous".

Later encirclement attempts (March 2023 – October 2023)

In March 2023 Ukrainian commander at Avdiivka said that Russian forces were trying to fully encircle the city. On 24 April, the Ukrainians claimed to have repulsed a Russian attack, and to have killed or wounded 200 Russian soldiers and destroyed 20 pieces of equipment. On 21 May, the Ukrainians claimed to have defeated a mechanized Russian assault near Avdiivka. During the engagement, they claimed to have killed 40 Russian soldiers and to have destroyed 5 armored vehicles, including at least two tanks.

Fighting in the battle intensified during the beginning of the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive, with Russian forces putting pressure on the outskirts of the town and Ukrainians digging in. On 10 September 2023, Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash reported that Ukrainian forces had gained a foothold in the urban portion of the village of Opytne 3km southwest of Avdiivka and 2km north of the Donetsk International Airport claiming to secured the southern border of the city, ending a threat of near encirclement.

Main effort (10 October 2023 – present)

Starting on 10 October, Russian forces attacked the north, west and south of Avdiivka with armoured assault groups and helicopters, supported by artillery. Three motorized rifle brigades of the Russian 8th Combined Arms Army began a concerted offensive action around Avdiivka southwest near Sieverne and northwest near Krasnohorivka and the village of Stepove, near the Avdiivka Coke Plant. Reportedly, all observed Russian units involved in the renewed offensive at the time were members of the Donetsk people's militias, which the 8th CAA absorbed at the start of the invasion.

On 11 October, Ukraine's General Staff reported that Russia initiated 18 combat engagements against the city during the previous 24 hours and that Russian forces launched one missile strike and 36 air strikes, while the Ukrainian air force launched 12 strikes. Andrii Kovaliov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian General Staff, reported separately in an interview with ''Radio Svoboda'' that Ukrainian forces had prior knowledge of this attempted assault and were prepared beforehand. On 12 October, the ISW assessed that Russian forces "have not secured any major breakthrough" and were unlikely to cut off Ukrainian forces due to heavy losses, equivalent to a battalion tactical group in armoured vehicles.

Russian forces maintained days-long assaults, only showing signs of letting up by 16 October when Avdiivka mayor Vitalii Barabash reported that Russian forces only attempted to storm the city 15 times, compared to the 60 time average during the middle of the week. Andriy Serhan, the commander of the 59th Motorized Brigade's drone platoon, said that the Russian assault had failed, but that the Russians were regrouping for another attempt. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian positions were reinforced with three units based on the DPR militias, the 114th, 15th, and 21st Motor Rifle Brigades while the 30th Motor Rifle Brigade was being kept in reserve.

On 18 October, the 21st Motor Rifle Brigade advanced towards an elevated mound of coke slack (formed from the adjacent Avdiivka Coke Plant) overlooking Avdiikva from the north, capturing some forward positions. The Ukrainians claimed to have destroyed 97 Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers while another Ukrainian source claimed that 620 Russian soldiers and 34 units of military equipment were lost on the 18th.

On 19 October, the DPR's "Kluny" Sabotage, Assault and Reconnaissance group made gains north of Spartak and also attempted a frontal assault on Avdiivka with the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade attacking a fortified restaurant, the "Tsarska Okhota", on the city's south-eastern outskirts. The 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade reported to have advanced "a few hundred" meters in the Vodyane-Netaylove direction. The 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade and 277th Infantry Battalion attacked near Stepove village, north of Avdiivka. The 1454th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 21st Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked near Kamianka. Lastly, the "Pyatnashka" and "Yugra" volunteer battalions attempted to advance to the N20 highway east of Avdiivka.

On 22 October, the ISW reported that Russian forces were pausing their efforts to regroup and rearm after the "failed" 19 October assaults. A Ukrainian spokesperson, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, stated that Russian command was shifting more units from the Zaporizhia front to Avdiivka, namely the 6th Motor Rifle Division. Russian and Ukrainian sources also reported that Russia had committed elements of the Redut PMC to Avdiivka, alongside the 106th Airborne. It was also reported on 24 October that Russia had moved elements of its 41st Combined Arms Army to reserve positions near Avdiivka.

On 25 October, a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian defenders had pushed Russian forces out of the village of Berdychi, located 10km northeast of Avdiivka and west of Stepove. On 26 October Russian milbloggers attributed rain and poor weather for the decrease in intensity of clashes around Avdiivka.

On 28 October, Russian forces captured the slag dump west of the railroad and Avdiivka Coke Plant, considered a tactically important elevation that oversees Avdiivka. Meanwhile, the commander of the Arbat Battalion confirmed Russia's objective was to capture Avdiivka and also claimed that elements of the Wagner Group PMC had joined the Battalion—which is part of the DPR's "Dikaya Division of Donbas" and the "Pyatnashka Brigade". Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets assessed that Russia had committed the "main force" of the 8th Combined Arms Army, consisting of the DPR's entire 1st Army Corps as well as the Luhansk People's Republic's (LPR) 2nd Army Corps, 20th Motorized Rifle Division, and the 150th Motorized Rifle Division to the Avdiivka front.

On 31 October, Ukrainian Col. Oleksandr Shtupun claimed that Russia had launched a new assault on Avdiivka consisting of Storm-Z penal units.

In early November 2023, the pace of Russian assaults also reportedly decreased to a "creeping offensive" as weather conditions deteriorated and heavy rains and mud complicated reconnaissance and logistics for both armies. The British Ministry of Defence assessed that Russian forces in Avdiivka had likely changed tactics, conducting dismounted infantry-led assaults due to the reportedly heavy vehicle losses in the October assaults. Meanwhile, Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops were conducting tunnel warfare against Ukrainian positions.

On 2 November, a prominent Russian source claimed that Russian troops advanced closer to the southwestern outskirts of Avdiivka, towards the Khimik microdistrict, and up to 1 km from Sieverne. The next day, Russian forces expanded their zone of control northwest of Krasnohorivka, past the railway line, towards Novokalynove and also pushed back Ukrainian defenders near Vesele.

On 3 November, Ukraine's General Staff said it repelled 17 attacks on and near Avdiivka, while Avdiivka mayor Vitalii Barabash, citing audio transmission intercepts, said the Russians were aiming to capture the fortified coke plant during the battle, as it controls Avdiivka's northern flank. The ISW assessed that between 3-4 November Russian troops had reached the railway tracks north of the plant, consolidating positions as they further approached Stepove village from the east. Russian sources also claimed that an irregular Russian formation named "Dikiya Divisiya" dug a 160-meter-long tunnel underneath an unspecified Ukrainian position and detonated explosives.

On 7-8 November, Russian forces reportedly advanced along the Stepove railway and along Avdiivka's southern flank. Meanwhile, Mayor Barabash said Ukrainian defenders were bracing for a "third wave" of Russian assaults along the eastern axis once the ground dries. On 9 November, a spokesman for Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade said the Russians were conducting infantry-led combined arms assaults supported by "artillery, drones, aviation, the same air bombing and more" while preserving their equipment by using them "mainly from a distance". Ukraine's General Staff claimed 11 Russian attacks were repelled near Avdiivka on this day.

On 10 November, geolocated footage showed that Russian forces had entered eastern Stepove amid heavy Ukrainian resistance. Russian assaults toward Stepove were reportedly costly, as the open field between the village outskirts and the railway was a virtual "no man's land" well within firing range from several Ukrainian brigades supported by artillery, drones and IFVS, resulting in tough clashes on this exposed salient. On 12 November, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who is commanding Ukrainian troops on the Avdiivka front, reported 30 engagements with Russians troops on and near Avdiivka and said the Russians were increasing airstrikes with guided bombs, conducting 30 airstrikes and 712 artillery barrages over the previous day.

Capture of the southern industrial zone (13 November – 4 December 2023)

On 13 November, Russian troops advanced in the so-called Promka industrial zone near Yasnynuvata Lane on Avdiivka's southern flank, an important fortified frontline area located on a hill and held by Ukraine since 2014. By 16-17 November, the Russians had reportedly captured at least 60% of the southeastern industrial zone while expanding the "gray zone" on the Stepove-Krasnohorivka axis north of Avdiivka. The British Ministry of Defence assessed that Russian forces were "almost certainly attempting a pincer movement" of Avdiivka, but insisted capturing the coke plant on the northern axis would be costly as it "provides Ukraine with a localized defensive advantage".

In mid-November 2023, Ukrainian troops told Agence France-Presse they were using drones, grenades, mortars, artillery, and 25mm cannon fire from M2 Bradleys to defend against Russian infantry assaults, which they said were intended to "exhaust our lines with constant waves of attacks." One Ukrainian drone operator alleged that Russian troops typically advanced at night in groups of five to seven soldiers then attacked at sunrise. The Ukrainians recaptured some positions in a counterattack near Stepove and the coke plant on 19 November as fighting continued south of Novokalynove, located 10km northwest of Avdiivka. Russian troops purportedly broke through Ukrainian defenses near the Yasynuvata-2 station in the industrial zone on 20 November, as a spokesman for Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade said the Russians continued small infantry assaults despite increasing snowfall. A Ukrainian counterattack on the Yasynuvata-2 station failed on 21 November, according to Russian sources. Meanwhile, Mayor Barabash observed that the Russians were using more vehicles as they advanced further along the streets of the industrial zone, but continued infantry-based assaults on the open fields. On 22 November, Russian sources reported the capture of Ukrainian defensive fortifications southwest of the industrial zone, while Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun reported the destruction of two Russian tanks and five or seven AFVs during a mechanized assault. Ukrainian military observer Konstyantyn Mashovets reported that the Russians committed the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment—part of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division—to Avdiivka.

General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said Russia's "third wave" of assaults on Avdiivka began on 23 November and claimed to have repelled several Russian mechanized assault columns over the next two days. The Ukrainians claimed to have killed 700 Russian soldiers and destroyed 51 items of military equipment, 44 vehicles, and eight tanks. Mayor Barabash claimed weather conditions such as snow and heavy winds were hindering Russian logistics, meanwhile the Russians reportedly controlled 95% of the industrial zone by 24 November. On 25-26 November, Russian sources reported advances near the Yasynuvata-2 railway station and claimed most or all of the southern industrial zone had been captured. Geolocated footage showed Russian armored vehicles operating freely and bombarding Ukrainian positions in the northern part of the industrial zone as Ukrainian infantry retreated north towards the nearby suburbs. A Ukrainian soldier interviewed by ''Radio Svoboda'' on 27 November acknowledged recent Russian gains, but disputed that the entire industrial zone had been captured while DeepState open-source intelligence war mapping reported the Ukrainians still retained some fortified positions in the district.

The Promka industrial zone was reportedly under full Russian control by 4 December, while Roman Pohorilyi of DeepState mapping said the Russians had consolidated their positions in the district by 21 December and were bringing in infantry and equipment.

Continued encirclement and advance on the northern outskirts (5 December 2023 – 19 January 2024)

By late November, Ukrainian forces were maintaining supply lines into Avdiivka amid harsh weather conditions and continuous Russian pressure from the north, east and south. On 28 November, Russian forces were reportedly advancing from "all sides" as ongoing heavy fighting near the coke plant was reported. Mayor Barabash said the coke plant was "almost completely destroyed" amid seemingly constant Russian artillery and airstrikes that were gradually weakening Ukrainian defenses. Russian troops reportedly outnumbered Ukrainian defenders five-to-one and held the air and artillery advantage, as Ukrainian sources reported shortages of 155mm howitzer ammunition and insufficient supplies of anti-armor and anti-air munitions, according to DeepState and the ISW.

Ukrainian defenders continued to clash with Russian troops around Stepove; in early December video emerged online of militants in Russian uniforms apparently executing two surrendering Ukrainian soldiers while clearing a dugout near Stepove, prompting an investigation by Ukraine's Donetsk public prosecutor's office and prompting Ukrainian authorities to accuse Russia of a war crime.

On 18 December, the Ukrainians again claimed to have inflicted heavy equipment losses on Russia, with 44 tanks, 60 APCs and 38 artillery systems in the past 24 hours around Avdiivka.

On 25 December, the Ukrainians claimed that they were currently bringing up reserves to counter Russian forces, and that "every day they lose 300-400 people killed and wounded and a lot of military equipment". However, the Russians were reportedly pulling up their own reserves, and that "one column can contain both the latest and very old Soviet models of equipment". The next day, the Ukrainian MoD said that reports that one of their brigades lost 108 men killed on Christmas Eve were "fake".

On 20 January 2024, Col. Shtupun stated that after a week of "rather intense air raids involving a large number of guided aerial bombs" the Russians had temporarily postponed their airstrikes but were continuing their missile and artillery strikes on the city, speculating that potential causes ranged from routine maintenance, ammunition shortages or adverse weather conditions.
The previous day, the Ukrainians claimed that the Russians were continuing to launch armored assaults against their positions, and had lost 41 armored vehicles over the past three days, including 17 tanks.

Breakthrough in the southern suburbs (20 January 2024 – present)

On 20 January 2024, Russian forces achieved an important breakthrough in southern Avdiivka. The notorious fortified "Tsarska Okhota" restaurant (located at the southmost turn of Soborna Street) area was captured. Russian troops were then able to continue advancing up to 1.2 km along Soborna Street. Along the way, they also managed to break through to Chernyshevskoho and Sportyva Streets, advancing up to 1 km along them and the tree line just south. Russian sources also reported that the Skotovata dacha area and Sand quarry, both east of "Tsarska Okhota" and southwest of the previously captured southern industrial zone, were taken. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets further said that the Russians progressed along Kolosova and Lermentova streets, both northwest of the Sand quarry.

On 22 January, the Ukrainians reported fighting in the northern and western parts of the city, including for the Avdiivka Chemical Plant. By 23 January, Russian forces had reached western Stepove and, by 25 January, they had partially leveled the front southwest of the village. These recent marginal gains show a "tempo far below the scale of the initial waves of Russian mechanized assaults" in the area.

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have been counterattacking to regain previously lost positions near the "Tsarska Okhota" area as of 25 January. Russian forces appear to have switched tactics to prioritize "fighting through Avdiivka block-by-block from the town's southern residential area instead of trying to further encircle the settlement from further southwest or to the north", similar to what happened in the battle of Bakhmut.

Military casualties

In October 2023, ''The Washington Post'' reported that Russian and Ukrainian losses were heavy, with the battle being compared to the battle of Bakhmut that reportedly left tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed.

Ukrainian claims of Russian casualties

Since Russia's renewed assault on Avdiivka in October 2023, the Ukrainians and Western observers both reported disproportionate Russian losses, claiming that Russia was using " human wave tactics" during the battle. One Ukrainian artillery officer alleged Russian commanders were sending their soldiers on near-suicidal assaults.
The losses for the Russian 90th Tank Division alone that day were claimed to be 820 killed or wounded, about 80 armoured vehicles (including at least one BMPT Terminator), 18 artillery pieces, more than a dozen multiple rocket launchers, and about 30 other vehicles. By 12 November, the Ukrainians claimed that the division had lost between 2,500 and 3,000 soldiers, and 250 tanks and other armored vehicles, thus "losing combat effectiveness".

On 10 October, geolocated footage collated by military analyst Andrew Perpetua, showed 70 Russian and 15 Ukrainian destroyed vehicles. However, Ukrainian sources claimed even higher losses. Total Russian casualties in just one day were claimed by Ukraine high as 34 tanks and 91 other armored vehicles destroyed, with human losses reportedly being 820 killed and 2,400 wounded.

According to an analysis by the ''Kyiv Post'', the Russian 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army has been rendered "combat ineffective" as a result of heavy losses suffered during the offensive in this area. Its worst-hit unit, the 114th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, lost 190 dead and 160 wounded in October, from an initial strength of 1,800 to 2,000 men, of which just 600 to 800 were assigned to "combat duties". The Ukrainians listed eleven brigades or equivalents under the 2nd CAA's command which have suffered similar losses, with a total 1,500 front-line soldiers dead and 2,000 seriously wounded out of a total strength (including non-combat troops) of 20,000 to 25,000 men.

On 13 October, according to the ''Kyiv Post'', independent analysts estimates that the Russians suffered losses of 1,000 to 2,000 troops killed or wounded in the first 96 hours of the offensive, along with 30 to 40 tanks and 90 to 100 armored personnel carriers. Meanwhile Ukrainian drone operators reported losses of 100 Russian soldiers and two tanks within the first ten minutes of the fighting with no losses of their own.

On 14 October, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military, claimed that the Russians had lost 3,000 soldiers and 300 pieces of equipment in the past five days since the beginning of the Russian's offensive.

On 20 October, a report by David Axe of ''Forbes'' stated that Ukraine's claim of destroying 175 Russian armored vehicles in the previous two days (including 55 tanks) is nearly 20 times higher than the daily average of three Russian tanks destroyed since February 2022. Meanwhile, according to a report from the Euromaidan Press, 65% of the nearly 1,400 Russian soldiers claimed to have been killed on 19 October occurred on just two 5 kilometer segments of the front near Avdiivka. They also stated that these losses are almost 50% higher than the first day of the offensive, although this attack was reportedly not as intense as the first one. Also on 20 October, according to Ukrainian sources, the Russians lost 900 soldiers killed and wounded, as well as 50 tanks and 100 armored vehicles damaged or destroyed. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers operating there also claimed that they had destroyed 200 armored vehicles over the last four days alone.

On 22 October, the fighting had become so intense that Ukrainian military historian Vasyl Pavlov compared the situation around Avdiivka to the Battles of Rzhev during World War II. "What's happening around Avdiivka can be compared to a series of events that took place on the Eastern Front during World War II, or let's say such a well-known event as the Battle of Rzhev," he claimed in an interview with ''Espreso TV''. In addition, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential administration, told ''TV Rain'' that Russia had lost between 5,000 and 6,000 troops in just over a week of their offensive in Avdiivka, as well as 400 armored vehicles. Indeed, according to the Ukrainian military, by 23 October the Russians had been losing as many as 1,000 men killed in action each day during its attempt to take the town, as well as "tens of tanks and armored vehicles". The recent Russian attacks on Avdiivka "have contributed to a 90% increase in Russian casualties recorded by the Ukrainian MoD (Ministry of Defense)," according to British military intelligence.Russian battle for Avdiivka threatens to become another "meat grinder"
www.laprensalatina.com

On 28 October, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov claimed that Ukrainian troops had killed 4,000 Russian soldiers in the battle so far, which roughly lines up with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's claim the previous day, that Russia had lost "at least a brigade" (between 2,000 and 8,000 personnel) near Avdiivka.

On 29 October, Ukrainian spokesman, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, claimed that they had killed 6,500 Russian soldiers and destroyed 100 tanks (including T-90s) and 250 armored vehicles since 10 October. "If we talk about losses in such a short period on a relatively small part of the front line, Avdiivka is already the largest defeat on the part of the Russians," he also stated.

On 10 November, Ukrainian C-in-C Valerii Zaluzhnyi claimed that his troops had killed 10,000 Russians and destroyed 100 tanks, 250 armored vehicles, 50-100 artillery pieces and seven Su-25 planes. Colonel Shuptun, meanwhile, claimed that Russian casualties average between 400 and 600 casualties per day.

On 11 November, in a renewed Russian assault on the town, the Ukrainians claimed that the Russians lost 800 men killed or wounded in the last day.

On 13 November, British intelligence as well as Russian military bloggers claimed that Storm-Z in Avdiivka had been sustaining between 40-70% losses attempting to take the city.
A report from the previous spring claimed that one Storm-Z unit lost 100 men out of 161 troops fighting in Vodyane around the city, while another by Forbes claimed that "it's possible that... the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies are losing 10 troops for every one Ukrainian casualty."

Meanwhile, on 28 November, a Russian Army volunteer reported that his regiment had lost 1,000 men killed in just 10 days, or about half it's strength.

On 13 December, an officer in the Freedom of Russia Legion, based on data from the Ukrainian MoD, claimed that the Russians had lost 30,000 dead in their attempts to take the city, with half of these occurring before October 2023.

On 20 December, the Ukrainians, whilst admitting that the Russians had advanced between 1.5 and 2 kilometers in two months (from 10 October), claimed that the Russians had suffered 25,000 men killed and wounded in the Donetsk Region, 80% of which "concerned the Avdiivka direction". 200 tanks and 400 other armored vehicles were also claimed to have been lost. 3,010 Russian soldiers and 32 tanks were claimed to have been "eliminated" in one three-day period, with 1,120 casualties on 7 December, 990 on 8 December, and 900 on 9 December.

Western estimates of Russian and Ukrainian casualties

According to Ragnar Gudmundsson, an Iceland-based analyst, "Russia hit a probable wartime record of more than 1,400 killed in combat in a single day on Oct. 20 and averaged 900 men a day killed in combat from 10-20 October, coinciding with its push toward Avdiivka, a key city on the eastern front north of Donetsk city".

U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, in an October 26, 2023 briefing, reported that fresh Russian troops were being thrown into the battle "under-trained, under-equipped, and unprepared for combat," in "human wave" attacks. Retreating Russian soldiers, the U.S. reported, were apparently being shot by orders of their own commanders. By the end of October, the U.S. was estimating that losses in the fight had cost Russia a battalion's worth of equipment, including "at least" 125 armoured vehicles.

On 26 October, the Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's reported losses around Avdiivka in late October had surpassed the infamous losses in armored vehicles during the battle of Vuhledar.

In November 2023, Russian casualties were reportedly so high that they were comparable to those of Imperial Russia during World War I. The British MoD reported that the Russians had suffered a daily average of 931 casualties, while on 1 December military analyst Ragnar Gudmundsson estimated that they had risen to 1,020 per day over the previous seven days. Both claimed that most of these losses had "occurred in the relentless assaults on Avdiivka, a town in Donbas region". This surpassed March 2023 as the deadliest month for Russian forces, during the peak of the Battle of Bakhmut, which saw a daily average of 776 losses per day.

By December 2023, the U.S. claimed that Russia had suffered over 13,000 casualties and 220 vehicles in the previous two months near Avdiivka, or 3,000 killed or wounded for every square mile captured. Five battalions were claimed to have been "completely annihilated" by U.S. Intelligence up to that point. Ukrainian losses were claimed to be much lower, at "a few thousand". By 30 January 2024, Forbes estimated that Russian losses had doubled, with "the battle over Avdiivka costing Russia perhaps 10,000 casualties this year".

By 27 January 2024, the Russians had lost an estimated 574 vehicles, allegedly including 183 tanks, 317 AFVs and 15 trucks, while the Ukrainians had lost just 44.

According to Andrew Perpetua during an engagement fought on 27 December for the town of Stepove, just north of the city, a reinforced battalion of 500 Russians attacked the Ukrainians, with half of them not returning to their lines. 21 tanks and 14 IFVs were reported to have been destroyed, against two Ukrainian Leopard 2s being abandoned.

On 30 December 2023, American analyst and former Seal Team Six commander Chuck Pfarrer gave a much higher estimate of 40,000 Russians killed in the battle for an advance of 1-2 kilometres, which is eight times more soldiers than the Battle of Vuhledar (which he said cost Russia 5,000 dead, 46 tanks and 100 armored vehicles). On 11 December alone, he claimed that Russia had lost 430 men killed and eight tanks, 14 APCs, and two artillery systems destroyed.

Civilian casualties

As of 11 November 2023, 154 civilians have been killed in the city with six more reported missing since the start of the invasion.

On 8 April, one person was killed and another injured by Russian shelling. On 13 April, one civilian was killed and 12 were wounded in Avdiivka. On 2 May, three civilians were killed due to Russian bombardment. On 3 May 2022, according to a news article on Dutch outlet ''Nederlandse Omroep Stichting'', at least 10 people died and 15 more were injured during an attack on a coking plant. Allegedly, the attack took place after the workers had finished work and were waiting for the bus. On 23 May, Russian shelling and artillery bombarded Avdiivka all night long. Three civilians were injured and 20 houses as well as a kindergarten were damaged severely. On 30 May, one civilian was killed during a street fight in Avdiivka. 2 civilians were killed on June 12. On 5 July, 2 civilians were killed in Avdiivka. One civilian was killed and two wounded on 7 July. One civilian was killed on 6 August. On 12 October 7 civilians were killed and 12 more were injured after a Russian shelling of the city market.

By October 2023, 1,000 civilians remained in Avdiivka despite the battle and renewed Russian offensive. On 12 October 2023, an 85 year-old civilian was killed by indiscriminate Russian artillery bombardment of the city, two other civilians would also be injured. Ukraine opened a pre-trial investigation into the attack to determine if it was a war crime as per Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.

Analysis

Personnel and tactics

Western media and observers compared the battle of Avdiivka to the battle of Bakhmut, drawing parallels in regards to battlefield conditions, Russian tactics, and reported casualty rates.

After Russia renewed its assault on Avdiivka in October 2023, their spearheading assault force reportedly sustained substantial losses in personnel and equipment on the northern flank near Krasnohorivka. On 26 October 2023, reports of high Russian losses in Avdiivka prompted Igor Girkin, a jailed pro-war Russian nationalist and frequent critic of the Russian war effort, to harshly criticize the offensive capabilities of Russian forces in the battle, arguing they were not able to achieve even limited objectives in favorable conditions without suffering significant casualties.

Ivan Smaga, the deputy commander of the 25th storm battalion of the 47th Mechanized Brigade, also emphasized Russian casualties in a report by ''The Guardian'' in December 2023. He claimed Russian assaults started with "...groups of 10 men. Now it's one or two or three without support". He also remarked on the tenacity of Russian soldiers to survive amid Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks, alleging they would dig holes, crawl over frozen ground, and play dead amid the corpses of their comrades. Smaga demanded more Western-supplied equipment such as heavy artillery to resist Russia's strength in numbers and more airpower to challenge Russian tactical air superiority.

Strategic value

Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a Kyiv-based think tank, assessed in late 2023 that the Russian capture of Avdiivka would not have a strategic impact on the overall war, but "would make the situation more tenable for occupied Donetsk as a major Russian logistics hub." The capture of Avdiivka would serve as a morale boost for Russian forces and deal a psychological blow to the Ukrainians, Bielieskov added.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, several Russian milbloggers proclaimed in early November 2023 that the ongoing battle was already an operational success because it reduced the intensity of Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk city.

See also

* List of military engagements during the Russian invasion of Ukraine
* Outline of the Russo-Ukrainian War

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Avdiivka, Battle of 2022
Avdiivka
Avdiivka
February 2022 events in Ukraine
March 2022 events in Ukraine
April 2022 events in Ukraine
May 2022 events in Ukraine
June 2022 events in Ukraine
July 2022 events in Ukraine
August 2022 events in Ukraine
Avdiivka
History of Donetsk Oblast
Avdiivka
Avdiivka_(2022–2023)
September 2022 events in Ukraine
October 2022 events in Ukraine
November 2022 events in Ukraine
December 2022 events in Ukraine
January 2023 events in Ukraine
Avdiivka
February 2023 events in Ukraine
March 2023 events in Ukraine
Avdiivka
Avdiivka