Russian Military Intervention In Ukraine (2014–present)

The Russo-Ukrainian War began in February 2014 and is ongoing. Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia occupied and annexed Crimea from Ukraine. It then supported Russian paramilitaries who began a war in the eastern Donbas region against Ukraine's military. In 2018, Ukraine declared the region to be occupied by Russia. These first eight years of conflict also included naval incidents and cyberwarfare. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and began occupying more of the country, starting the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II. The war has resulted in a refugee crisis and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

In early 2014, the Euromaidan protests led to the Revolution of Dignity and the ousting of Ukraine's pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych. Shortly after, pro-Russian protests began in parts of southeastern Ukraine, while unmarked Russian troops occupied Crimea. Russia soon annexed Crimea after a highly disputed referendum. In April 2014, Russian-backed militants seized towns and cities in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region and proclaimed the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) as independent states, starting the Donbas war. Russia covertly supported the separatists with its own troops, tanks and artillery, preventing Ukraine from fully retaking the territory. The International Criminal Court judged that the war was both a national and international armed conflict involving Russia, and the European Court of Human Rights judged that Russia controlled the DPR and LPR from 2014 onward. In February 2015, Russia and Ukraine signed the Minsk II agreements, but they were never fully implemented in the following years. The Donbas war became a static conflict likened to trench warfare; ceasefires were repeatedly broken but the frontlines did not move.

Beginning in 2021, there was a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine's borders, including within neighbouring Belarus. Russian officials repeatedly denied plans to attack Ukraine. Russia's president Vladimir Putin voiced expansionist views and challenged Ukraine's right to exist. He demanded that Ukraine be barred from ever joining the NATO military alliance. In early 2022, Russia recognized the DPR and LPR as independent states. While Russian troops surrounded Ukraine, its proxies stepped up attacks on Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.

On 24 February 2022, Putin announced a " special military operation" to "demilitarize and denazify" Ukraine, claiming Russia had no plans to occupy the country. The Russian invasion that followed was internationally condemned; many countries imposed sanctions against Russia, and sent humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine. In the face of fierce resistance, Russia abandoned an attempt to take Kyiv in early April. In August, Ukrainian forces began liberating territories in the north-east and south. In September, Russia declared the annexation of four partially-occupied provinces, which was internationally condemned. Since then, Russian offensives and Ukrainian counteroffensives have gained only small amounts of territory. The invasion has also led to attacks in Russia by Ukrainian and Ukrainian-backed forces, among them a cross-border offensive into Russia's Kursk region in August 2024. Russia has repeatedly carried out deliberate and indiscriminate attacks on civilians far from the frontline. The International Criminal Court (ICC) opened an investigation into war crimes and issued arrest warrants for Putin and several other Russian officials.

Background

Independent Ukraine and the Orange Revolution

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1991, Ukraine and Russia maintained close ties. In 1994, Ukraine signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and agreed to give up the former Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine. In return, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States agreed to uphold the territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine through the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. In 1999, Russia was one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security, which guaranteed the right of each state "to choose or change its security arrangements" and to join alliances if they wish. In the years after the dissolution of the USSR, several former Eastern Bloc countries joined NATO, partly in response to regional security threats involving Russia such as the 1993 Russian constitutional crisis, the War in Abkhazia (1992–1993) and the First Chechen War (1994–1996). Putin said Western powers broke promises not to let any Eastern European countries join.

The 2004 Ukrainian presidential election was controversial. During the election campaign, opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned by TCDD dioxin; he later accused Russia of involvement. Viktor Yanukovych was declared the winner, despite allegations of vote-rigging by election observers. During a two-month period which became known as the Orange Revolution, large peaceful protests successfully challenged the outcome, and the Supreme Court of Ukraine. A re-run election was won by Yushchenko, leaving Yanukovych in opposition. The Orange Revolution is often grouped with other early-21st century protest movements within the former USSR, known as colour revolutions. According to Anthony Cordesman, Russian military officers viewed such colour revolutions as attempts by the US and European states to undermine Russia.

Russo-Georgian War

At the 2008 Bucharest summit, Ukraine and Georgia sought to join NATO, but NATO members were split. Western European countries opposed offering Membership Action Plans (MAP) to Ukraine and Georgia, fearing it would unsettle Russia. NATO refused to offer Ukraine and Georgia MAPs, but also issued a statement agreeing that "these countries will become members of NATO" at some point. Putin strongly opposed their NATO membership bids.

Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008 and took control of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, demonstrating Russia's willingness to use military force to attain its political objectives. Political scientist Paul D'Anieri says the United States "was accused of appeasement and naivete" over its reaction to the invasion. The West's weak response in 2008—and later in 2014—contributed to Russia's assessment of Western warnings against 2022 invasion as not serious, and, according to political scientist Samuel Ramani, encouraged further Russian aggression.

Yanukovych won the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election.

Euromaidan and Revolution of Dignity

In early 2013, the Ukrainian parliament overwhelmingly approved of finalizing a free trade and association agreement with the European Union (EU). The Kremlin pressured Ukraine to reject this agreement; Russia imposed embargoes on Ukrainian goods and threatened further sanctions. Kremlin adviser Sergei Glazyev warned that Russia might no longer acknowledge Ukraine's borders if the agreement was signed.

Under pressure from Russia, in November 2013, Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych suddenly withdrew from signing the agreement. This sparked a wave of massive protests, known as the "Euromaidan". The protesters opposed Russian interference, government corruption, abuse of power, and human rights violations, including new anti-protest laws.

The protests would lead to the Revolution of Dignity. On 18–20 February 2014, more than 100 protesters were killed in clashes with Berkut special riot police; most of them were shot by snipers. On 21 February, Yanukovych and the leaders of the opposition signed an agreement to bring about an interim unity government, urgent constitutional changes (which needed signed by the president), and early elections. However, Yanukovych fled the capital that evening and did not inform parliament of his whereabouts. The next day, Ukraine's parliament unanimously voted to remove Yanukovych from office (about 73% of the parliament's 450 members voted).

On 27 February, an interim government was established and early presidential elections were scheduled. The following day, Yanukovych resurfaced in Russia and declared that he remained the president of Ukraine. Some political leaders in the mainly Russian-speaking eastern regions declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych.

Pro-Russian protests

From late February 2014, demonstrations by pro-Russian, separatist and counter-revolutionary groups took place in several cities in eastern and southern Ukraine. The first protests were largely native expressions of discontent with the new Ukrainian government. On 23 February, Ukraine's parliament adopted a bill to revoke the status of Russian as an official state language. The bill was not enacted, but the proposal caused anger in the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine. These regions mostly consumed Russian-based media, which promoted the narrative that Ukraine's new government was an illegitimate "fascist junta" and that ethnic Russians were in imminent danger.

Most of the protests were in the Donbas region. A national survey held in March–April 2014 found that 54% of respondents in the Donbas expressed various degrees of separatism, including 31% who wanted the region to completely separate from Ukraine.

Russia used the protests to launch a campaign of political warfare, information warfare, and irregular warfare against Ukraine. Leaked e-mails and telephone calls later revealed that the Russian state had funded the separatists and had organized separatist protests, mainly through Kremlin advisers Vladislav Surkov and Sergey Glazyev. Ukrainian authorities arrested local separatist leaders in early March. Those leaders were replaced by men with ties to the Russian security services and interests in Russian businesses.

On 6 April 2014, hundreds of masked men stormed and seized weapons from the Security Service buildings in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Protesters then stormed and occupied the Donetsk regional government headquarters, raising the Russian flag and demanding a referendum on joining Russia. The next day, the activists held a meeting in the building and proclaimed the " Donetsk People's Republic" an independent state. On 29 April, armed pro-Russian activists stormed and occupied the Luhansk regional government headquarters, proclaiming the "Luhansk People's Republic".

Causes

According to political scientist Paul D'Anieri, Russia had the following four causes to start its war with Ukraine in 2014, as well as for the 2022 war:
* Russia’s desire to regain control of Ukraine and turn it into a puppet regime.
*Russia's conception of itself as a great power entitled to a sphere of influence over the former Soviet Republics.
* The security dilemma in Europe, with Russia perceiving the expansion of NATO as a threat, and other Eastern states desiring guarantees against Russian expansionism.
* Democratic Ukraine being a threat to authoritarian regime in Russia.

History

Historiography

Different start-dates for the conflict have been identified. According to a number of scholars, the war began with the February 2014 Russian occupation of Crimea, in particular the 27 February storming of the Crimean parliament. In contrast the Ukrainian government has declared 26 February the " Day of Resistance to the Occupation of Crimea", as on that day in 2014 a Crimean Tatar rally against Russian occupation was held. Some, including political scientist Andreas Umland, prefer 20 February – the day Russia supposedly issued orders to prepare for invasion, which is also engraved on the Russian Crimea campaign medal. Some analysts place the start of the conflict even earlier, including Dutch Professor of Military History Floribert Baudet who has stated that "Russia’s war against Ukraine did not start in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the secession of Donetsk and Luhansk, much less so with the invasion of February, 2022."

Analysts also differ over the nature of the conflict. Paul D'Anieri describes the events of the period as "a limited war in 2014, and then much less limited war in 2022". In contrast Ukrainian-American historian Serhii Plokhy stated in 2023 of the then-ongoing war that "I decline the temptation to identify the date of February 24, 2022, as its beginning, no matter the shock and drama of the all- out Russian assault on Ukraine, for the simple reason that the war began eight years earlier, on February 27, 2014".

Russian annexation of Crimea (2014)

On 27 February 2014, Russian soldiers without insignia began to occupy Crimea. At first, Russia denied that the soldiers were theirs, instead claiming they were local "self-defense" units. Later, Putin admitted that they were Russian special forces, and said that he decided to "return" Crimea to Russia when the revolution happened. Russia took advantage of the uncertainty in Ukraine immediately after the ousting of Yanukovych.

The unmarked Russian soldiers seized the Crimean parliament and government buildings, as well as setting up checkpoints to restrict movement and cut off the Crimean peninsula from the rest of Ukraine. While the armed men occupied Crimea's parliament, it dismissed the Crimean government and installed a pro-Russian government under Sergey Aksyonov, whose party won only 4% of votes in the last election. Historian Andrew Wilson and journalist Luke Harding called this the "Crimean coup". The parliament then announced a referendum on Crimea's status. Russian rebel commander Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin later admitted:

"Rebels assembled lawmakers to corral them into the hall so that they could vote. I was one of the commanders of those rebels. I saw that from the inside".

On 1 March, the Federation Council of Russia approved the use of armed force in Ukraine. Ukraine's prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, said that Russian military intervention would be the beginning of war, and Ukraine's representative told the UN Security Council that Russia was committing "an act of aggression against the state of Ukraine". Unmarked Russian special forces occupied airports and communications centers, and blockaded Ukrainian military bases, such as the Southern Naval Base. Russian commander Strelkov admitted that most Crimean authorities, police and army units remained loyal to Ukraine, even if some were reluctant to carry out Ukrainian authorities' orders. Russian cyberattacks shut down websites of the Ukrainian government, news media, and social media. Cyberattacks also enabled Russian access to the mobile phones of Ukrainian officials and members of parliament, further disrupting communications.

The referendum was held under Russian occupation on 16 March 2014. According to the Russian-installed authorities, the result was in favor of joining Russia. It annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014. Following this, Russian forces seized Ukrainian military bases in Crimea and captured their personnel. On 24 March, Ukraine ordered its remaining troops to withdraw.

On 15 April, Ukraine's parliament declared Crimea temporarily occupied by Russia. Russia militarized the peninsula and made nuclear threats. In response to the annexation, some NATO members began training the Ukrainian army.

War in the Donbas (2014–2021)

In April 2014, the anti-government protests in the Donbas developed into armed conflict between Russian-backed separatists and Ukraine. Russian citizens with links to its security forces had taken control of the separatist movement by this stage. Russia deployed its military near Ukraine's eastern border in late March, reaching 30,000–40,000 troops in early April. This buildup was used to threaten escalation and hinder Ukraine's response, forcing Ukraine to divert its military to its borders instead of the Donbas.

First months of the war

On 12 April 2014, a fifty-man unit of pro-Russian militants seized the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. They had been sent from Russian-occupied Crimea and wore no insignia. The heavily armed men were Russian Armed Forces "volunteers" under the command of former GRU colonel Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. He said that this action sparked the war in eastern Ukraine:

I'm the one who pulled the trigger of this war. If our unit hadn't crossed the border, everything would have fizzled out, like in Kharkiv or Odesa.

The separatists were supported with weaponry, artillery, armored vehicles and volunteers from Russia, including Chechen and Cossack fighters. Putin gave legitimacy to the separatists when he described the Donbas as part of the historical imperial territory of " New Russia" (''Novorossiya''), and suggested it should never have become part of Ukraine. The separatists then began attempting to create a new entity called "Novorossiya".

In response, on 15 April the interim Ukrainian government launched an " Anti-Terrorist Operation" (ATO); however, Ukrainian forces were poorly prepared, and the operation soon stalled. Russian separatist commander Strelkov said that Ukrainian forces were "extremely cautious" at first, as they did not know how Russia would respond. By the end of April, Ukraine announced it had lost control of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. It claimed to be on "full combat alert" against a possible Russian invasion and reinstated conscription to its armed forces. During May, the Ukrainian campaign focused on containing the separatists and positioning the military for a decisive offensive once Ukraine's mobilization had completed.

As conflict between the separatists and Ukraine escalated in May, Russia began to employ a " hybrid approach", combining disinformation tactics, irregular fighters, regular Russian troops, and conventional military support. The First Battle of Donetsk Airport was the first between Ukrainian and separatist forces that involved large numbers of Russian "volunteers".

Petro Poroshenko won the Ukrainian presidential elections in May. The separatist groups held disputed referendums that month, which were not recognized by Ukraine or any other UN member state.

On 5 July 2014, Ukrainian forces re-took Sloviansk and the pro-Russian forces retreated to Donetsk city. Russian commander Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin said that Donetsk was still relatively peaceful until then. He admitted responsibility for the shelling of the city by Ukrainian forces.

On 17 July 2014, Russian-controlled forces killed 298 civilians when they shot down a passenger aircraft, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, as it was flying over eastern Ukraine. Investigations and the recovery of bodies began in the conflict zone as fighting continued.

By the end of July, Ukrainian forces were pushing into cities, isolating Donetsk and attempting to restore control of the border. By 28 July, the strategic heights of Savur-Mohyla were under Ukrainian control, along with the city of Debaltseve, an important railroad hub. These Ukrainian successes threatened the existence of the DPR and LPR statelets, prompting Russian cross-border shelling targeting Ukrainian troops on their own soil, from mid-July onwards.

August 2014 Russian invasion

By August 2014, Ukrainian forces had regained a lot of the territory seized by the separatists. Igor Girkin ('Strelkov') urged direct Russian military intervention, and said that the combat inexperience of his irregular forces, along with recruitment difficulties amongst the local population, had caused the setbacks. He stated, "Losing this war on the territory that President Vladimir Putin personally named New Russia would threaten the Kremlin's power and, personally, the power of the president". Strelkov said that in early August, Russian soldiers, supposedly on "vacation" from the army, began to arrive in Donbas. According to Nikolai Mitrokhin's estimates, by mid-August 2014 during the Battle of Ilovaisk, between 20,000 and 25,000 troops were fighting in the Donbas on the separatist side, and only 40–45% were "locals".

Russia dispatched what it called a "humanitarian convoy" of trucks across the border on 22 August 2014. Ukraine's security service called this a "direct invasion" and said the trucks were being used to move weapons and bring the bodies of Russian soldiers out of Ukraine.

Russia then began a more direct invasion of the Donbas. On 24 August 2014, Amvrosiivka was occupied by Russian paratroopers, supported by 250 armoured vehicles and artillery pieces. On 25 August, a column of Russian military vehicles was reported to have crossed into Ukraine near Novoazovsk on the Azov sea coast. It appeared headed towards Ukrainian-held Mariupol, in an area that had not seen pro-Russian presence for weeks. The following day, the Russian Defence Ministry said these soldiers had crossed the border "by accident". Russian troops captured Novoazovsk and began deporting Ukrainians who did not have an address registered within the city. Pro-Ukrainian anti-war protests took place in Mariupol. The UN Security Council called an emergency meeting.

The Pskov-based 76th Guards Air Assault Division of the Russian Airborne Forces allegedly entered Ukrainian territory in August and engaged in a skirmish near Luhansk, suffering 70–80 dead. The Ukrainian Defence Ministry said that they had seized two of the unit's armoured vehicles near Luhansk, and reported destroying another three tanks and two armoured vehicles in other regions.

The speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament and Russian state television channels acknowledged that Russian soldiers were in Ukraine, but referred to them as "volunteers" fighting for the " Russian world". A reporter for '' Novaya Gazeta'', an opposition newspaper in Russia, stated that the Russian military leadership paid soldiers to resign their commissions and fight in Ukraine in the early summer of 2014, and then began ordering soldiers into Ukraine. Russian opposition MP Lev Shlosberg made similar statements, although he said they were "regular Russian troops", disguised as units of the DPR and LPR.

Minsk agreement and continued fighting

On 3 September 2014, Poroshenko said he and Putin had reached a "permanent ceasefire" agreement. Russia denied this, denying that it was a party to the conflict, adding that "they only discussed how to settle the conflict". Poroshenko then recanted. On 5 September Russia's Permanent OSCE Representative Andrey Kelin, said that it was natural that pro-Russian separatists "are going to liberate" Mariupol. Ukrainian forces stated that Russian intelligence groups had been spotted in the area. Kelin said 'there might be volunteers over there.' On 4 September 2014, a NATO officer said that several thousand regular Russian forces were operating in Ukraine.

On 5 September 2014, the Minsk Protocol ceasefire agreement drew a line of demarcation between Ukraine and separatist-controlled portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

Despite the Minsk ceasefire, sporadic clashes continued around Donetsk International Airport, the last part of Donetsk city held by Ukrainian troops. On 28 September, Russian-backed forces began an offensive to capture the airport. Ukrainian troops were besieged in the terminal and control tower. They were given the nickname " Cyborgs", as they withstood repeated Russian attacks in grim battlefield conditions. The siege lasted throughout winter and most of the airport was destroyed by shelling. Eventually, on 21 January 2015, rebels took the airport with help from Russian special forces.

On 7 and 12 November, NATO officials reconfirmed the Russian presence, citing 32 tanks, 16 howitzer cannons and 30 trucks of troops entering the country. NATO said it had seen an increase in Russian tanks, artillery pieces and other heavy military equipment in Ukraine and renewed its call for Moscow to withdraw its forces. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs stated that Russian separatists enjoyed technical advantages over the Ukrainian army since the large inflow of advanced military systems in mid-2014: effective anti-aircraft weapons (" Buk", MANPADS) suppressed Ukrainian air strikes, Russian drones provided intelligence, and Russian secure communications system disrupted Ukrainian communications intelligence. The Russian side employed electronic warfare systems that Ukraine lacked. Similar conclusions about the technical advantage of the Russian separatists were voiced by the Conflict Studies Research Centre.

Minsk II agreement and battle of Debaltseve

In January 2015, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mariupol represented the three battle fronts. Poroshenko described a dangerous escalation on 21 January amid reports of more than 2,000 additional Russian troops, 200 tanks and armed personnel carriers crossing the border. He abbreviated his visit to the World Economic Forum because of his concerns.

A new package of measures to end the conflict, known as Minsk II, was agreed on 12 February 2015, with a ceasefire due to begin on 15 February.

Despite the ceasefire, Russian-backed forces launched an offensive on Debaltseve, a strategic town and salient held by Ukrainian forces. By 18 February 2015, the 8,000 Ukrainian troops had been almost surrounded and were forced to retreat from Debaltseve under relentless fire, suffering heavy casualties. Russian-backed rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko had said his forces would not observe the ceasefire in Debaltseve, claiming it rightfully belonged to them. Ukraine, the EU and the US accused Russia and its proxies of breaking the ceasefire, and said that the Russian military itself took part in the offensive.

In September 2015 the United Nations Human Rights Office estimated that 8,000 casualties had resulted from the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Static war

After the Minsk agreements, there were few changes in territorial control, while the war settled into static trench warfare around the agreed line of contact, marked by artillery duels and special forces operations. Hostilities never ceased for a substantial period of time, but continued at a low level despite repeated attempts at ceasefire. Both sides began fortifying their position by building networks of trenches, bunkers and tunnels. The relatively static conflict was labelled " frozen" by some, though fighting never completely stopped. Between 2014 and 2022 there were 29 ceasefires, each agreed to remain in force indefinitely. However, none of them lasted more than two weeks.

US and international officials continued to report the active presence of Russian military in eastern Ukraine, including in the Debaltseve area. In 2015, Russian separatist forces were estimated to number around 36,000 troops (compared to 34,000 Ukrainian), of whom 8,500–10,000 were Russian soldiers. Additionally, around 1,000 GRU troops were operating in the area. Another 2015 estimate held that Ukrainian forces outnumbered Russian forces 40,000 to 20,000. In 2017, on average one Ukrainian soldier died in combat every three days, with an estimated 6,000 Russian and 40,000 separatist troops in the region.

The Battle of Avdiivka erupted on 29 January 2017 and lasted for several days. It saw the biggest and deadliest clashes in over a year, with more than thirty people killed and heavy artillery barrages. It began hours after newly-elected US president Donald Trump spoke by telephone with the Russian president Putin. Some in the Ukrainian government believed the Russian-backed rebels were emboldened by Trump's election. Kostiatyn Yeliseieiv, deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, said it was "a test from the Russian side, of the reaction of the new American administration".

In 2017, Ukraine appealed to a court of arbitration over the use of the Kerch Strait. By 2018 Russia had built a bridge over the strait, limiting the size of ships that could pass through, imposed new regulations, and repeatedly detained Ukrainian vessels. On 25 November 2018, three Ukrainian boats traveling from Odesa to Mariupol were seized by Russian warships; 24 Ukrainian sailors were detained. A day later on 26 November, the Ukrainian parliament overwhelmingly backed the imposition of martial law along Ukraine's coastal regions and those bordering Russia.

More than 110 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the conflict in 2019. In May 2019, newly elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took office promising to end the war in Donbas. In December 2019, Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists began swapping prisoners of war. Around 200 prisoners were exchanged on 29 December 2019. In December 2019 Ukraine and Russia agreed to implement a ceasefire. The two sides agreed to swap prisoners of war and disengage military forces in several regions. Russia and Ukraine could not agree on the issues of the withdrawal of Russian-backed troops and the elections in the separatist-held regions.

According to Ukrainian authorities, 50 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in 2020. Between 2019 and 2021, Russia issued over 650,000 internal Russian passports to Ukrainians. There were 27 conflict-related civilian deaths in 2019, 26 deaths in 2020, and 25 deaths in 2021, over half of them from mines and unexploded ordnance.

Prelude to full-scale invasion

From March to April 2021, Russia began a major military build-up near the Ukrainian border, followed by a second build-up from October 2021 onward, in both Russia and Belarus. Throughout, Russia said it was only holding military exercises, and Russia's government repeatedly denied it had plans to attack Ukraine.

In early December 2021, following Russian denials, the US released intelligence of Russian invasion plans, including satellite photographs showing Russian troops and equipment near the border. The intelligence reported a Russian list of key sites and individuals to be killed or neutralized. The US released multiple reports that accurately predicted the invasion plans.

In the months preceding the invasion, Russian officials accused Ukraine of inciting tensions, Russophobia, and repressing Russian speakers. They made multiple security demands of Ukraine, NATO, and other EU countries. On 9 December 2021 Putin said that "Russophobia is a first step towards genocide". Putin's claims were dismissed by the international community, and Russian claims of genocide were rejected as baseless. In a 21 February speech, Putin questioned the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state, repeating an inaccurate claim that "Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood". He incorrectly stated that Vladimir Lenin had created Ukraine, by carving a separate Soviet Republic out of what Putin said was Russian land, and that Nikita Khrushchev "took Crimea away from Russia for some reason and gave it to Ukraine" in 1954.

During the second build-up, the Russian government demanded NATO end all activity in its Eastern European member states and ban Ukraine or any former Soviet state from ever joining NATO, among other demands. A treaty to prevent Ukraine joining NATO would go against the alliance's " open door" policy and the right of countries to choose their own security, although NATO had made no progress on Ukraine's requests to join. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg replied that "Russia has no say" on whether Ukraine joins, and that "Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors". NATO offered to improve communication with Russia and discuss limits on missile placements and military exercises, as long as Russia withdrew troops from Ukraine's borders, but Russia did not withdraw.

Escalation in the Donbas

While Russian troops massed on Ukraine's borders, Russia's proxy forces launched thousands of attacks on Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. Observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which also includes Ukraine and Russia, reported more than 90,000 ceasefire violations throughout 2021; the vast majority in Russian-controlled territory.

Fighting in Donbas escalated significantly from 17 February 2022 onwards. The Ukrainians and the pro-Russian separatists each accused the other of attacks. There was a sharp increase in artillery shelling by the Russian-led militants in Donbas. Ukraine and its supporters believed this to be an attempt to provoke the Ukrainian army to retaliate, to give Russia a pretext for invading. Ukraine's president Zelenskyy said that his military would not respond to the provocations. Separatist leaders warned that Ukraine was about to launch an offensive, but gave no evidence, and ''The Guardian'' noted that it would be "exceedingly risky" for Ukraine to assault the Donbas while Russian troops were massed on its borders. On 18 February, the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics ordered emergency evacuations of civilians, although observers noted that full evacuations would take months. The Russian government intensified its disinformation campaign, with Russian state media airing videos on a nearly hourly basis purporting to show Ukrainian forces attacking Russia. Evidence showed that Russia was staging false flag attacks.
On 21 February at 22:35 (UTC+3), Putin announced that the Russian government would diplomatically recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics. The same evening, Putin directed that Russian troops deploy into Donbas, in what Russia referred to as a "peacekeeping mission". On 22 February, the Federation Council unanimously authorised Putin to use military force outside Russia. In response, Zelenskyy ordered the conscription of army reservists; The following day, Ukraine's parliament proclaimed a 30-day nationwide state of emergency and ordered the mobilisation of all reservists. Russia began to evacuate its embassy in Kyiv.

On the night of 23 February, Zelenskyy gave a speech in Russian in which he appealed to the citizens of Russia to prevent war. He rejected Russia's claims about neo-Nazis and stated that he had no intention of attacking the Donbas.

Full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022)

The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on the morning of 24 February 2022, when Putin announced a "special military operation" to " demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine. Minutes later, missiles and airstrikes hit across Ukraine, including Kyiv, shortly followed by a large ground invasion along multiple fronts. Zelenskyy declared martial law and a general mobilisation of all male Ukrainian citizens between 18 and 60, who were banned from leaving the country.

Russian attacks were initially launched on a northern front from Belarus towards Kyiv, a southern front from Crimea, and a south-eastern front from Luhansk and Donetsk and towards Kharkiv. In the northern front, amidst heavy losses and strong Ukrainian resistance surrounding Kyiv, Russia's advance stalled in March, and by April its troops retreated. On 8 April, Russia placed its forces in southern and eastern Ukraine under the command of General Aleksandr Dvornikov, and some units withdrawn from the north were redeployed to the Donbas. On 19 April, Russia launched a renewed attack across a long front extending from Kharkiv to Donetsk and Luhansk. By 13 May, a Ukraine counter-offensive had driven back Russian forces near Kharkiv. By 20 May, Mariupol fell to Russian troops following a prolonged siege of the Azovstal steel works. Russian forces continued to bomb both military and civilian targets far from the frontline. The war caused the largest refugee and humanitarian crisis within Europe since the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s; the UN described it as the fastest-growing such crisis since World War II. In the first week of the invasion, the UN reported over a million refugees had fled Ukraine; this subsequently rose to over 7,405,590 by 24 September, a reduction from over eight million due to some refugees' return.

The invasion was internationally condemned as a war of aggression. A United Nations General Assembly resolution demanded a full withdrawal of Russian forces, the International Court of Justice ordered Russia to suspend military operations and the Council of Europe expelled Russia. Many countries imposed new sanctions, which affected the economies of Russia and the world, and provided humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine. In September 2022, Putin signed a law that would punish anyone who resists conscription with a 10-year prison sentence resulting in an international push to allow asylum for Russians fleeing conscription.

Ukrainian counteroffensives and stalemate (2022–2023)

Ukrainian forces launched counteroffensives in the south in August 2022, and in the northeast in September 2022. On 30 September, Russia annexed four oblasts of Ukraine which it had partially conquered during the invasion. This annexation was generally unrecognized and condemned by the countries of the world. After Putin announced that he would begin conscription drawn from the 300,000 citizens with military training and potentially the pool of about 25 million Russians who could be eligible for conscription, one-way tickets out of the country nearly or completely sold out. The Ukrainian offensive in the northeast successfully recaptured the majority of Kharkiv Oblast in September. In the course of the southern counteroffensive, Ukraine retook the city of Kherson in November and Russian forces withdrew to the east bank of the Dnieper River.

As of August 2023, the total number of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded during the Russian invasion of Ukraine was nearly 500,000. In November 2023, the UN said that more than 10,000 civilians had been killed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with about half the deaths in the three months prior to the report taking place far behind the front lines. The UN attributed the deaths far behind the front to Russian use of long-range missiles and explosions of abandoned ordinance. According to a declassified US intelligence assessment, as of December 2023, Russia had lost 315,000 of the 360,000 troops that made up Russia's pre-invasion ground force, and 2,200 of the 3,500 tanks.

Russian campaigns and Ukrainian Kursk offensive (2023–present)

Between December 2023 and May 2024, Russia was assessed to have increased its drone and missile attacks, firing harder-to-hit weapons, such as ballistic missiles. By the same measure, Ukraine forces were seen to be low on ammunition, particularly the Patriot systems that have been "its best defense against such attacks".

In August 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast and, as reported by the Ukrainian side, in a few days captured an area of up to 350 square kilometers. By 19 August, Ukraine had captured hundreds of Russian soldiers during the incursion.

In late October 2024, the US said it had seen evidence that North Korea had sent 3,000 soldiers to Russia for possible deployment to Ukraine. On 28 October, NATO chief Mark Rutte confirmed earlier Ukrainian intelligence that North Korean troops had been deployed to Kursk Oblast, and the Pentagon reported an increased number of 10,000 North Korean soldiers sent to train in Russia and fight in the war. On 13 November, both the US and South Korea confirmed that North Korean troops had begun engaging in combat against Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. On 26 April 2025, Russia officially confirmed the participation of North Korean troops, noting their ″significant assistance″ to the Russian military in Kursk, which on the same day Russia claimed to have retaken.

War crimes and human rights violations

Violations of human rights and atrocity crimes have occurred during the war. From 2014 to 2021, there were more than 3,000 civilian casualties, with most occurring in 2014 and 2015. The right of movement was impeded for the inhabitants of the conflict zone. Arbitrary detention was practiced by both sides in the first years of the conflict. It decreased after 2016 in government-held areas, while in the separatist-held ones it continued. Investigations into the abuses committed by both sides made little progress.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian authorities and armed forces have committed multiple war crimes in the form of deliberate attacks against civilian targets, massacres of civilians, torture and rape of women and children, and many indiscriminate attacks in densely populated areas. After the Russian withdrawal from areas north of Kyiv, overwhelming evidence of war crimes by Russian forces was discovered. In particular, in the city of Bucha, evidence emerged of a massacre of civilians perpetrated by Russian troops, including torture, mutilation, rape, looting and deliberate killings of civilians. the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (OHCHR) has documented the murder of at least 73 civilians—mostly men, but also women and children—in Bucha. More than 1,200 bodies of civilians were found in the Kyiv region after Russian forces withdrew, some of them summarily executed. There were reports of forced deportations of thousands of civilians, including children, to Russia, mainly from Russian-occupied Mariupol, as well as sexual violence, including cases of rape, sexual assault and gang rape, and deliberate killing of Ukrainian civilians by Russian forces. Russia has also systematically attacked Ukrainian medical infrastructure, with the World Health Organization reporting 1,422 attacks as of 21 December 2023. Many Russian soldiers confessed of raping, looting and torturing Ukrainian civilians and soldiers in intercepted phone calls which were regularly published online and showcased in a 2024 documentary film '' Intercepted''.

Ukrainian forces have also been accused of committing various war crimes, including mistreatment of detainees.

In 2024, the UN Human Rights Office reported that Russia is committing severe human rights violations in occupied Ukraine, including arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, torture, crackdown on protests and freedom of speech, enforced Russification, indoctrination of children, and suppression of Ukrainian language and culture. Ukrainians have been coerced into taking Russian passports and becoming Russian citizens. Those who refuse are denied healthcare and other rights, and can be imprisoned as a "foreign citizen". Ukrainian men who take Russian citizenship can be drafted to fight against the Ukrainian army. According to Artem Lysohor, Ukraine's head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, starting from May 2024, mothers who give birth in Russian-occupied Luhansk must prove that one of the newborn's parents have Russian citizenship, otherwise they will not be allowed to leave the hospital with their child. In addition, Russian occupation officials attempt to militarize and indoctrinate Ukrainian youth by developing a new textbook in accordance with Russian educational standards, and children participation in Russian ″military-patriotic games″.

In August 2024, UN official Danielle Bell claimed that 95% of Ukrainian prisoners of war had suffered from Russian torture (e.g. beating, electric shock, or being stripped naked).

Related issues

Spillover

On 19 September 2023, CNN reported that it was "likely" that Ukrainian Special Operations Forces were behind a series of drone strikes and a ground operation directed against the Wagner-backed RSF near Khartoum on 8 September. Kyrylo Budanov, chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, stated in an interview on 22 September that he could neither deny nor confirm the involvement of Ukraine in the conflict in Sudan, but said that Ukraine would punish Russian war criminals anywhere in the world.

In September and October 2023, a series of fragments were reported found in Romania, a NATO member state, which were suspected to have been the remains of a Russian drone attack near the Romanian border with Ukraine.

War over natural resources

In August 2012, the Ukrainian government of Mykola Azarov, who, like the then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, maintained good relations with the Russian leadership, commissioned a consortium including Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, OMV Romania and the Ukrainian state-owned NAK Nadra Ukrainy to extract oil and natural gas in the Ukrainian part of the Black Sea. In 2013, Italy's largest oil and gas producer, Eni, was granted a license to extract oil and gas on the east coast of Crimea. In 2014, it was reported that if Crimea were annexed, the production licenses could be reassigned and previous license holders would find themselves in a legal grey area.

Economic interests were also a motive for Russia's attack on Ukraine and its annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Lithium deposits in the Donbas and Ukraine's grain wealth would mean a "monopoly on the world market" for Russia if it took over Ukraine. Although the US government estimates that Russia's economic losses from the war and Western sanctions will amount to around $1.3 trillion by 2025, and the direct financial expenditure for conducting the war is estimated at $250 billion (as of autumn 2024) - costs that Russia could not have foreseen. However, according to a study published in summer 2022 by the Canadian think tank SecDev, Russia controlled energy reserves, metals and minerals worth at least $12.4 trillion in the occupied territories in Donbas. The total value of national raw material stocks in Ukraine is estimated at over $26 trillion. The value of lithium and rare earths in Ukraine is estimated at $11.5 trillion. In January 2024, the Russian occupation administration in Donetsk Oblast granted the Russian Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources a "permission" to mine lithium in the Shevchenko deposit near Kurakhovo, where the lithium deposit is estimated to be worth hundreds of billions of US dollars.

The green transformation or energy transition in Europe is threatening Russia's usual business and existence model, the trade in fossil fuels. A few months before the start of the Russian invasion, the European Union (EU) and Ukraine had signed a Green Deal or a transformation program for Ukraine, partly because the Ukrainian economy was at the time the most energy-intensive in the world with the most ineffective and expensive thermal power generation. In addition, 22 of the 30 raw materials that the EU classified as strategically important are available in large quantities in Ukraine. Russia could only benefit from the energy transition in Europe if it acquired the resources and infrastructure on Ukrainian soil. Europe would then be even more dependent on Russia. If Russia were to achieve its war goals, Russia could steal and gain more than it would lose in peace through reduced exports to Europe.

Gas disputes and Nord Stream sabotage

Until 2014 Ukraine was the main transit route for Russian natural gas sold to Europe, which earned Ukraine about US$3 billion a year in transit fees, making it the country's most lucrative export service. Following Russia's launch of the Nord Stream pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine, gas transit volumes steadily decreased. Following the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War in February 2014, severe tensions extended to the gas sector. The subsequent outbreak of war in the Donbas region forced the suspension of a project to develop Ukraine's own shale gas reserves at the Yuzivska gas field, which had been planned as a way to reduce Ukrainian dependence on Russian gas imports. Eventually, the EU commissioner for energy Günther Oettinger was called in to broker a deal securing supplies to Ukraine and transit to the EU.

In 2015, Russian state media reported that Russia planned to completely abandon gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine after 2018. Russia's state-owned energy giant Gazprom had already substantially reduced the volumes of gas transited across Ukraine, and expressed its intention to reduce the level further by means of transit-diversification pipelines (Turkish Stream, Nord Stream, etc.). Gazprom and Ukraine agreed to a five-year deal on Russian gas transit to Europe at the end of 2019.

In 2020, the TurkStream natural gas pipeline running from Russia to Turkey changed the regional gas flows in South-East Europe by diverting the transit through Ukraine and the Trans Balkan Pipeline system.

In May 2021, the Biden administration waived Trump's CAATSA sanctions on the company behind Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said he was "surprised" and "disappointed" by Joe Biden's decision. In July 2021, the U.S. urged Ukraine not to criticise a forthcoming agreement with Germany over the pipeline.

In July 2021, Biden and German Chancellor Angela Merkel concluded a deal that the U.S. might trigger sanctions if Russia used Nord Stream as a "political weapon". The deal aimed to prevent Poland and Ukraine from being cut off from Russian gas supplies. Ukraine will get a $50 million loan for green technology until 2024 and Germany will set up a billion dollar fund to promote Ukraine's transition to green energy to compensate for the loss of the gas-transit fees. The contract for transiting Russian gas through Ukraine will be prolonged until 2034, if the Russian government agrees.

In August 2021, Zelenskyy warned that the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany was "a dangerous weapon, not only for Ukraine but for the whole of Europe." In September 2021, Ukraine's Naftogaz CEO Yuriy Vitrenko accused Russia of using natural gas as a "geopolitical weapon". Vitrenko stated that "A joint statement from the United States and Germany said that if the Kremlin used gas as a weapon, there would be an appropriate response. We are now waiting for the imposition of sanctions on a 100% subsidiary of Gazprom, the operator of Nord Stream 2."

On 7 February 2022, at a joint conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Biden said that if Russia invades Ukraine, the US would ″bring an end″ to Nordstream 2.

On 26 September 2022, a series of underwater explosions and consequent gas leaks occurred on the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) and Nord Stream 2 (NS2) natural gas pipelines. The investigations by Sweden and Denmark described the explosions as sabotage, and were closed without identifying perpetrators in February 2024. The German government refused to publish the preliminary results of its own investigation in July 2024.

Hybrid warfare

The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has also included elements of hybrid warfare using non-traditional means. Cyberwarfare has been used by Russia in operations including successful attacks on the Ukrainian power grid in December 2015 and in December 2016, which was the first successful cyber attack on a power grid, and the Mass hacker supply-chain attack in June 2017, which the US claimed was the largest known cyber attack. In retaliation, Ukrainian operations have included the Surkov Leaks in October 2016 which released 2,337 e-mails in relation to Russian plans for seizing Crimea from Ukraine and fomenting separatist unrest in Donbas. The Russian information war against Ukraine has been another front of hybrid warfare waged by Russia.

A Russian fifth column in Ukraine has also been claimed to exist among the Party of Regions, the Communist Party, the Progressive Socialist Party and the Russian Orthodox Church.

Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns

The Russian state falsely claims that Ukraine's government and society are dominated by neo-Nazism, invoking the history of collaboration in German-occupied Ukraine during World War II. These Nazi allegations are widely rejected as untrue and part of a disinformation campaign to justify the invasion. Some of the world's leading historians of Nazism and the Holocaust put out a statement rejecting the claims, which was signed by hundreds of other historians and scholars of the subject. It says:

Ukraine has a far-right fringe like most countries, including the Azov Movement and Right Sector, but analysts say that Russia's government and mainstream media greatly exaggerate its size and influence. Ukraine's president Zelenskyy is Jewish, his grandfather served in the Soviet army fighting against the Nazis, and three of his ancestors were killed in the Holocaust. In an attempt to drum-up support for the war among its citizens, Russian propaganda has framed it as a continuation of the Soviet Union's "Great Patriotic War" against Nazi Germany. Some commentators point out that Russia claims to be "denazifying" Ukraine despite Russian neo-Nazi groups (such as Rusich) taking part in the war, and despite Putin's Russia being likened to a fascist state (see Ruscism).

Putin called Russians and Ukrainians " one people" and claimed there is "no historical basis" for the "idea of Ukrainian people as a nation separate from the Russians".Düben, B A.
Revising History and 'Gathering the Russian Lands': Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian Nationhood"
'' LSE Public Policy Review'', vol. 3, no. 1, 2023 Putin repeatedly denied Ukraine's right to exist, claiming that it was created by the Russian Bolsheviks and that it never had "real statehood". A poll conducted in April 2022 by " Rating" found that the vast majority (91%) of Ukrainians do not support the thesis that "Russians and Ukrainians are one people". In 2020, Vladislav Surkov, who served as an adviser to Putin on Ukraine, said "There is no Ukraine. There is Ukrainianism ... it is a specific disorder of the mind". Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia and former Russian president, publicly wrote that "Ukraine is NOT a country, but artificially collected territories" and that Ukrainian "is NOT a language" but a "mongrel dialect" of Russian. In 2024, Medvedev called Ukraine part of Russia and said the Russian Army will seize what he called the "Russian cities" of Kyiv and Odesa. Medvedev has also said that Ukraine should not exist in any form and that Russia will continue to wage war against any independent Ukrainian state. Moreover, Medvedev warned that Russia would use a nuclear weapon if the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive succeeded. He said Ukrainians had to choose between joining Russia or "death".

Fake stories have been used to provoke public outrage against Ukraine. In April 2014, a Russian news channel showed a man saying he was attacked by a fascist Ukrainian gang, while another channel showed the same man claiming to be a Ukrainian funding far-right anti-Russia radicals. A third segment portrayed the man as a neo-Nazi surgeon. In July 2014, Channel One Russia broadcast a fake story about a 3-year-old Russian boy who was allegedly crucified by Ukrainian nationalists. Russian state media reported mass graves full of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine. Amnesty International investigated these claims in 2014 and instead found isolated incidents of extrajudicial executions by both sides. Russian state news outlets have sometimes aired stories about alleged Ukrainian atrocities using footage from other unrelated conflicts.

In announcing the 2022 invasion, Putin baselessly claimed that Ukraine had been carrying out genocide in the mainly Russian-speaking Donbas region for eight years. Ukraine brought a case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to challenge Russia's claim. The ICJ said it had not seen any evidence of genocide by Ukraine. Altogether, about 14,300 people were killed by both sides in the Donbas War. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, less than a quarter of them were civilians, and at least half of those were killed by mines and unexploded ordnance.

The Russian censorship apparatus '' Roskomnadzor'' ordered the country's media to use information only from Russian state sources or else face fines and blocks, and ordered media and schools to describe the war as a "special military operation". On 4 March 2022, Putin signed into law a bill introducing prison sentences of up to 15 years for those who publish "fake news" about the Russian military and its operations, leading to some media outlets to stop reporting on Ukraine. Russia's opposition politician Alexei Navalny said the "monstrosity of lies" in the Russian state media "is unimaginable. And, unfortunately, so is its persuasiveness for those who have no access to alternative information." He tweeted that "warmongers" among Russian state media personalities "should be treated as war criminals. From the editors-in-chief to the talk show hosts to the news editors, heyshould be sanctioned now and tried someday."

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the 22 March Crocus City Hall attack, a terrorist attack in a music venue in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, Russia, and published a corroborating video. Putin and the Russian security service, the FSB, blamed Ukraine for the attack, without evidence. On 3 April 2024, Russia's Defense Ministry announced that "around 16,000 citizens" had signed military contracts in the last 10 days to fight as contract soldiers in the war against Ukraine, with most of them saying they were motivated to "avenge those killed" in the Crocus City Hall attack.

NAFO (North Atlantic Fella Organization), a loose cadre of online shitposters vowing to fight Russian disinformation, gained notoriety after June 2022.

Role of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine

The Russian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) and its hierarch Patriarch Kirill of Moscow have shown their full support of the war against Ukraine. The Russian Orthodox Church officially deems the invasion of Ukraine to be a " holy war".
During the World Russian People's Council in March 2024, the Russian Orthodox Church approved a document stating that this "holy war" was to defend " Holy Russia" and to protect the world from globalism and the West, which it said had "fallen into Satanism". The document further stated that all of Ukraine should come under Russia's sphere of influence, and that Ukrainians and Belarusians "should be recognised only as sub-ethnic groups of the Russians". Not one of the approximately 400 Russian Orthodox Church bishops in Russia has spoken out against the war. Patriarch Kirill also issued a prayer for victory in the war.

The role of the Russian Orthodox Church in advancing Putin's war messaging is a vivid illustration of the complex interplay between religion and politics. A Russia expert and fellow of Germany's University of Bremen, told Al Jazeera that the ROC's participation in the war means it "faces the prospect of losing its 'universal character' and clout, and of reducing its borders to those of ussian President VladimirPutin's political empire".

On 27 March 2024 the World Russian People's Council took place in the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour in Moscow where was adopted a "Nakaz" (decree) of the council "The Present and the Future of the Russian World". According to some experts such as the ROC protodeacon Andrei Kurayev it has similarities with the program articles of the German Christians. The decree talks about the so-called "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine, development of the Russian World globally and other issues.

Russia–NATO relations

The conflict has harmed relations between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a defensive alliance of European and North American states. Russia and NATO had co-operated until Russia annexed Crimea 2014. In his February 2022 speeches justifying the invasion of Ukraine, Putin falsely claimed that NATO was building up military infrastructure in Ukraine and threatening Russia, forcing him to order an invasion. Putin warned that NATO would use Ukraine to launch a surprise attack on Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov characterized the conflict as a proxy war started by NATO. He said: "We don't think we're at war with NATO ... Unfortunately, NATO believes it is at war with Russia".

NATO says it is not at war with Russia; its official policy is that it does not seek confrontation, but rather its members support Ukraine in "its right to self-defense, as enshrined in the UN Charter". NATO condemned Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine in "the strongest possible terms", and calls it "the biggest security threat in a generation". It led to the deployment of additional NATO units in its eastern member states. Former CIA director Leon Panetta told the ABC that the U.S. is 'without question' involved in a proxy war with Russia. Lawrence Freedman wrote that calling Ukraine a NATO "proxy" wrongly implied that "Ukrainians are only fighting because NATO put them up to it, rather than because of the more obvious reason that they have been subjected to a vicious invasion".

Steven Pifer argues that Russia's own aggressive actions since 2014 have done the most to push Ukraine towards the West and NATO. Russia's invasion led Finland to join NATO, doubling the length of Russia's border with NATO. Putin said that Finland's membership was not a threat, unlike Ukraine's, "but the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response". An article published by the Institute for the Study of War concluded:

Putin didn't invade Ukraine in 2022 because he feared NATO. He invaded because he believed that NATO was weak, that his efforts to regain control of Ukraine by other means had failed, and that installing a pro-Russian government in Kyiv would be safe and easy. His aim was not to defend Russia against some non-existent threat but rather to expand Russia's power, eradicate Ukraine's statehood, and destroy NATO.

Countering claims that NATO started and is waging a proxy war against Russia, it is pointed out that NATO states only sent Ukraine military aid in response to Russian aggression. NATO states have actually been slow in sending Ukraine offensive weaponry, and they prevented Ukraine from firing those weapons into Russia. It was not until May 2024, more than two years into the invasion, that NATO states allowed Ukraine to fire Western-supplied weapons at military targets inside Russia, and only then in self-defense. NATO has refused Ukrainian calls to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and the US told Ukraine to stop attacking refineries and early-warning radars in Russia.

Russian military bases in Crimea

When the Russian occupation of Crimea began, Russia had roughly 12,000 military personnel from the Black Sea Fleet, in several locations in the Crimean peninsula such as Sevastopol, Kacha, Hvardiiske, Simferopol Raion, Sarych, and others. In 2005 a dispute broke out between Russia and Ukraine over control of the Sarych cape lighthouse near Yalta, and a number of other beacons. Russian presence was allowed by the basing and transit agreement with Ukraine. Under this agreement, the Russian military in Crimea was constrained to a maximum of 25,000 troops. Russia was required to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine, honor its legislation, not interfere in the internal affairs of the country, and show their "military identification cards" when crossing the international border. Early in the conflict, the agreement's generous troop limit allowed Russia to significantly strengthen its military presence, deploy special forces and other required capabilities to conduct the operation in Crimea, under the pretext of addressing security concerns.

According to the original treaty on the division of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet signed in 1997, Russia was allowed to have its military bases in Crimea until 2017, after which it would evacuate all military units including its portion of the Black Sea Fleet from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol. On 21 April 2010, former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych signed a new deal with Russia, known as the Kharkiv Pact, to resolve the 2009 Russia–Ukraine gas dispute. The pact extended Russia's stay in Crimea to 2042, with an option to renew.

Legality and declaration of war

No formal declaration of war has been issued in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. When Putin announced the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he claimed to commence a " special military operation", side-stepping a formal declaration of war. The statement was, however, regarded by the Ukrainian government as a declaration of war and reported as such by many international news sources. While the Ukrainian parliament refers to Russia as a "terrorist state" in regard to its military actions in Ukraine, it has not issued a formal declaration of war on its behalf.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine violated international law (including the Charter of the United Nations). The invasion has also been called a crime of aggression under international criminal law and under some countries' domestic criminal codes—including those of Ukraine and Russia—although procedural obstacles exist to prosecutions under these laws.

Reactions

Reactions to the Russian annexation of Crimea

Ukrainian response

Interim Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov accused Russia of "provoking a conflict" by backing the seizure of the Crimean parliament building and other government offices on the Crimean peninsula. He compared Russia's military actions to the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, when Russian troops occupied parts of the Republic of Georgia and the breakaway enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia were established under the control of Russian-backed administrations. He called on Putin to withdraw Russian troops from Crimea and stated that Ukraine will "preserve its territory" and "defend its independence". On 1 March, he warned, "Military intervention would be the beginning of war and the end of any relations between Ukraine and Russia." On 1 March, Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov placed the Armed Forces of Ukraine on full alert and combat readiness.

The Ministry of Temporarily Occupied Territories and IDPs was established by Ukrainian government on 20 April 2016 to manage occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea regions affected by Russian military intervention of 2014.The Cabinet decided to create the Ministry of temporarily occupied territories and internally displaced persons
Ukrayinska Pravda (20 April 2016)

NATO and United States military response

On 4 March 2014, the United States pledged $1 billion in aid to Ukraine. Russia's actions increased tensions in nearby countries historically within its sphere of influence, particularly the Baltic and Moldova. All have large Russian-speaking populations, and Russian troops are stationed in the breakaway Moldovan territory of Transnistria. Some devoted resources to increasing defensive capabilities, and many requested increased support from the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which they had joined in recent years. The conflict "reinvigorated" NATO, which had been created to face the Soviet Union, but had devoted more resources to "expeditionary missions" in recent years.

In addition to diplomatic support in its conflict with Russia, the U.S. provided Ukraine with US$1.5 billion in military aid during the 2010s. In 2018 the U.S. House of Representatives passed a provision blocking any training of Azov Battalion of the Ukrainian National Guard by American forces. In previous years, between 2014 and 2017, the U.S. House of Representatives passed amendments banning support of Azov, but due to pressure from the Pentagon, the amendments were quietly lifted.

Financial markets

The initial reaction to the escalation of tensions in Crimea caused the Russian and European stock market to tumble.
The intervention caused the Swiss franc to climb to a 2-year high against the dollar and 1-year high against the Euro. The Euro and the US dollar both rose, as did the Australian dollar. The Russian stock market declined by more than 10 percent, while the Russian ruble hit all-time lows against the US dollar and the Euro. The Russian central bank hiked interest rates and intervened in the foreign exchange markets to the tune of $12 billion to try to stabilize its currency. Prices for wheat and grain rose, with Ukraine being a major exporter of both crops.

Later in March 2014, the reaction of the financial markets to the Crimea annexation was surprisingly mellow, with global financial markets rising immediately after the referendum held in Crimea, one explanation being that the sanctions were already priced in following the earlier Russian incursion.
Other observers considered that the positive reaction of the global financial markets on Monday 17 March 2014, after the announcement of sanctions against Russia by the EU and the US, revealed that these sanctions were too weak to hurt Russia.
In early August 2014, the German DAX was down by 6 percent for the year, and 11 percent since June, over concerns Russia, Germany's 13th biggest trade partner, would retaliate against sanctions.

Reactions to the war in Donbas

Ukrainian public opinion

A poll of the Ukrainian public, excluding Russian-annexed Crimea, was taken by the International Republican Institute from 12 to 25 September 2014. 89% of those polled opposed 2014 Russian military intervention in Ukraine. As broken down by region, 78% of those polled from Eastern Ukraine (including Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) opposed said intervention, along with 89% in Southern Ukraine, 93% in Central Ukraine, and 99% in Western Ukraine. As broken down by native language, 79% of Russian speakers and 95% of Ukrainian speakers opposed the intervention. 80% of those polled said the country should remain a unitary country.

A poll of the Crimean public in Russian-annexed Crimea was taken by the Ukrainian branch of Germany's biggest market research organization, GfK, on 16–22 January 2015. According to its results: "Eighty-two percent of those polled said they fully supported Crimea's inclusion in Russia, and another 11 percent expressed partial support. Only 4 percent spoke out against it."

A joint poll conducted by Levada and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology from September to October 2020 found that in the breakaway regions controlled by the DPR/ LPR, just over half of the respondents wanted to join Russia (either with or without some autonomous status) while less than one-tenth wanted independence and 12% wanted reintegration into Ukraine. It contrasted with respondents in Kyiv-controlled Donbas, where a vast majority felt the separatist regions should be returned to Ukraine. According to results from Levada in January 2022, roughly 70% of those in the breakaway regions said their territories should become part of the Russian Federation.

Russian public opinion

An August 2014 survey by the Levada Centre reported that only 13% of those Russians polled would support the Russian government in an open war with Ukraine. Street protests against the war in Ukraine arose in Russia. Notable protests first occurred in March and large protests occurred in September when "tens of thousands" protested the war in Ukraine with a peace march in downtown Moscow on Sunday, 21 September 2014, "under heavy police supervision".

Reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Ukrainian public opinion

In March 2022, a week after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 98% of Ukrainians—including 82% of ethnic Russians living in Ukraine—said they did not believe that any part of Ukraine was rightfully part of Russia, according to Lord Ashcroft's polls which did not include Crimea and the separatist-controlled part of Donbas. 97% of Ukrainians said they had an unfavourable view of Russian President Vladimir Putin, with a further 94% saying they had an unfavourable view of the Russian Armed Forces.

At the end of 2021, 75% of Ukrainians said they had a positive attitude toward ordinary Russians, while in May 2022, 82% of Ukrainians said they had a negative attitude toward ordinary Russians.

A Razumkov Centre poll conducted from 19 to 25 January 2024, found that Russia was the most negatively viewed country in Ukraine, with it being viewed negatively by 95% of Ukrainian respondents. The second, third and fourth most negatively viewed countries were Belarus (87%), Iran (82%) and China (72.5%) respectively. Ukrainian respondents were most positive towards Lithuania (91%), Latvia (90.5%), the UK (90%), Germany (89%), Estonia (89%), Canada (88%) and the US (87%).

Russian public opinion

An April 2022 survey by the Levada Centre reported that approximately 74% of the Russians polled supported the "special military operation" in Ukraine, suggesting that Russian public opinion has shifted considerably since 2014. According to some sources, a reason many Russians supported the "special military operation" has to do with the propaganda and disinformation. In addition, it has been suggested that some respondents did not want to answer pollsters' questions for fear of negative consequences. At the end of March, a poll conducted in Russia by the Levada Center concluded the following: When asked why they think the military operation is taking place, respondents said it was to protect and defend civilians, ethnic Russians or Russian speakers in Ukraine (43%), to prevent an attack on Russia (25%), to get rid of nationalists and "denazify" Ukraine (21%), and to incorporate Ukraine or the Donbas region into Russia (3%)." According to polls, the Russian President's rating rose from 71% on the eve of the invasion to 82% in March 2023.

The Kremlin's analysis concluded that public support for the war was broad but not deep, and that most Russians would accept anything Putin would call a victory. In September 2023, the head of the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, VTsIOM state pollster Valery Fyodorov said in an interview that only 10–15% of Russians actively supported the war, and that "most Russians are not demanding the conquest of Kyiv or Odesa." On the accuracy of public opinion polls, Russian-born political activist Vladimir Kara-Murza said: "I see Russian pollsters say that the average response-rate to polls in Russia average from five to seven per-cent; some 90% of the people refuse to say in polls, and [for] very good reasons. It is impossible to judge the true state of public opinion in a country that imprisons you for expressing it. ...The Putin propaganda machine tries to pretend that Russian society is a monolith, that all Russians support this war, that all Russians support this regime, and this is a lie, needless to say."

In 2023, Oleg Orlov, the chairman of the Board of Human Rights Center "Memorial (society), Memorial", claimed that Russia under Vladimir Putin had descended into fascism and that the army is committing "mass murder".

United States

On 28 April 2022, US President Joe Biden asked United States Congress, Congress for an additional $33 billion to assist Ukraine, including $20 billion to provide weapons to Ukraine. On 5 May, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine had received more than $12 billion worth of weapons and financial aid from Western countries since the start of Russia's invasion on 24 February. On 21 May 2022, the United States passed legislation providing $40 billion in new military and humanitarian foreign aid to Ukraine, marking a historically large commitment of funds. In August 2022, U.S. defense spending to counter the Russian war effort exceeded the first 5 years of war costs in Afghanistan. The Washington Post reported that new U.S. weapons delivered to the Ukrainian war front suggest a closer combat scenario with more casualties."New weapons for Ukraine suggest preparation for closer combat"
''washingtonpost.com.'' Retrieved 22 August 2022. The United States looks to build "enduring strength in Ukraine" with increased arms shipments and a record-breaking $3 billion military aid package.

On 7 March 2024, American President Joe Biden in his 2024 State of the Union Address compared Russia under Vladimir Putin to Adolf Hitler's German-occupied Europe, conquests of Europe.

Following the second inauguration of Donald Trump, the President of the United States, American presidential administration support to Ukraine decreased and in March 2025 the United States even paused military aid to Ukraine after the 2025 Trump–Zelenskyy Oval Office meeting, but it was later resumed. After months of peace negotiations in the Russian invasion of Ukraine without a bilateral agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the United States together with other G7 countries on 22 May 2025 unitedly condemned Russia’s continued brutal war against Ukraine and declared to be remained committed to unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and right to exist, and its freedom, sovereignty and independence toward a just and durable peace.

Russian military suppliers

After expending large amounts of heavy weapons and munitions over months, the Russia, Russian Federation received combat drones, loitering munitions, and large amounts of artillery from Iran, deliveries of tanks and other armoured vehicles from Belarus, and reportedly planned to trade for artillery ammunition from North Korea and ballistic missiles from Iran.

The U.S. has accused China of providing Russia with technology it needs for high-tech weapons, allegations which China has denied. The U.S. sanctioned a Chinese firm for providing satellite imagery to Russian mercenary forces fighting in Ukraine.

In March 2023, Western nations had pressed the United Arab Emirates to halt re-exports of goods to Russia which had military uses, amidst allegations that the Gulf country exported 158 drones to Russia in 2022. In May 2023, the U.S. accused South Africa of supplying arms to Russia in a covert naval operation, allegations which have been denied by South African president Cyril Ramaphosa.

United Nations

On 25 February 2022, the United Nations Security Council, Security Council failed to adopt a draft resolution which would have "deplored, in the strongest terms, the Russian Federation's aggression" on Ukraine. Of the 15 member states on the Security Council, 11 were in support, whilst three abstained from voting. The draft resolution failed due to a Russian veto.

Due to the deadlock, the Security Council passed a resolution to convene the United Nations General Assembly, General Assembly for the Eleventh emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly, eleventh emergency special session. On 2 March 2022, the General Assembly voted to deplore "in the strongest possible terms" Russia's aggression against Ukraine by a vote of 141 to 5, with 35 abstentions. The United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1, resolution also called for the Russian Federation to "immediately cease its use of force against Ukraine" and "immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces." Only Russia, Belarus, Ba'athist Syria, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea voted against the resolution.

On 4 March 2022, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution by a vote of 32 to 2, with 13 abstentions, calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops and Russian-backed armed groups from Ukraine and humanitarian access to people in need. The resolution also established a commission to investigate alleged rights violations committed during Russia's military attack on Ukraine.

In October 2022, the United Nations General Assembly had adopted a resolution condemning the 2022 annexation referendums in Russian-occupied Ukraine with 143 supporting votes, 5 opposing votes (Belarus, North Korea, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria), and 35 abstentions.

See also

* List of invasions in the 21st century
* Outline of the Russo-Ukrainian War
* List of conflicts in Europe
* List of invasions and occupations of Ukraine
* List of ongoing armed conflicts
* List of wars involving Russia
* List of wars involving Ukraine
* Modern history of Ukraine
* New generation warfare
* Fiber optic drone

Notes

References

Further reading

*
* David R. Marples, Marples, David R. ed. ''The War in Ukraine's Donbas: Origins, Contexts, and the Future'' (2022
excerpt

External links

*

International armed conflict in Ukraine
at the Rule of Law in Armed Conflicts Project

Conflict in Ukraine
at the Council on Foreign Relations

Russo-Ukrainian War
at Google News

War in Ukraine
at BBC News Online

Ukraine interactive map
at the Live Universal Awareness Map

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