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Moore's law is the observation that the number of
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transistor
s in a dense
integrated circuit An integrated circuit or monolithic integrated circuit (also referred to as an IC, a chip, or a microchip) is a set of electronic circuit 200px, A circuit built on a printed circuit board (PCB). An electronic circuit is composed of indiv ...

integrated circuit
(IC) doubles about every two years. Moore's law is an
observation Observation is the active acquisition of information Information can be thought of as the resolution of uncertainty; it answers the question of "What an entity is" and thus defines both its essence and the nature of its characteristics. Th ...

observation
and projection of a historical trend. Rather than a
law of physics Scientific laws or laws of science are statements, based on repeated experiment An experiment is a procedure carried out to support, refute, or validate a hypothesis. Experiments provide insight into Causality, cause-and-effect by demonstrat ...
, it is an
empirical relationship In science, an empirical relationship or phenomenological relationship is a relationship or correlation that is supported by experiment and observation but not necessarily supported by theory. Analytical solutions without a theory An empirical rela ...
linked to gains from experience in production. The observation is named after
Gordon Moore Gordon Earle Moore (born January 3, 1929) is an American businessman, , and the and chairman emeritus of . He is also the author of . As of March 2021, Moore's is reported to be $12.6 billion. Education Moore was born in , , and ...

Gordon Moore
, the co-founder of
Fairchild Semiconductor Fairchild Semiconductor International, Inc. was an American semiconductor A semiconductor material has an electrical conductivity Electrical resistivity (also called specific electrical resistance or volume resistivity) is a fundamental pr ...
and
Intel Intel Corporation is an American multinational corporation A multinational company (MNC) is a corporate A corporation is an organization—usually a group of people or a company A company, abbreviated as co., is a Legal personalit ...

Intel
(and former CEO of the latter), who in 1965 posited a
doubling every year
doubling every year
in the number of components per integrated circuit, and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade. In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years, a
compound annual growth rateCompound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some elem ...
(CAGR) of 41%. While Moore did not use empirical evidence in forecasting that the historical trend would continue, his prediction held since 1975 and has since become known as a "law". Moore's prediction has been used in the
semiconductor industry The semiconductor industry is the aggregate of companies engaged in the design A design is a plan or specification for the construction of an object or system or for the implementation of an activity or process, or the result of that plan or ...
to guide long-term planning and to set targets for
research and development Research and development (R&D, R+D), known in Europe Europe is a continent A continent is any of several large landmasses. Generally identified by convention (norm), convention rather than any strict criteria, up to seven geogra ...
, thus functioning to some extent as a
self-fulfilling prophecy A self-fulfilling prophecy is the sociopsychological phenomenon of someone "predicting" or expecting something, and this "prediction" or Expectation (epistemic), expectation coming true simply because the person ''believes'' or Anticipation, antic ...
. Advancements in
digital electronics Digital electronics is a field of electronics The field of electronics is a branch of physics and electrical engineering that deals with the emission, behaviour and effects of electrons The electron is a subatomic particle In physica ...
, such as the reduction in quality-adjusted
microprocessor A microprocessor is a computer processor where the data processing logic and control is included on a single integrated circuit An integrated circuit or monolithic integrated circuit (also referred to as an IC, a chip, or a microchip ...

microprocessor
prices, the increase in memory capacity (
RAM Random-access memory (RAM; ) is a form of computer memory In computing Computing is any goal-oriented activity requiring, benefiting from, or creating computing machinery. It includes the study and experimentation of algorithmic proces ...
and
flash FLASH, acronym of ''Free Electron LASer in Hamburg'', a particle accelerator , a synchrotron collider type particle accelerator at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), Batavia, Illinois, USA. Shut down in 2011, until 2007 it was the ...
), the improvement of
sensors A sensor is a device that produces an output signal for the purpose of sensing of a physical phenomenon. In the broadest definition, a sensor is a device, module, machine, or subsystem that detects events or changes in its environment and se ...
, and even the number and size of
pixel In digital imaging Digital imaging or digital image acquisition is the creation of a representation of the visual characteristics of an object, such as a physical scene or the interior structure of an object. The term is often assumed to imp ...

pixel
s in
digital camera A digital camera is a camera A camera is an optical Optics is the branch of physics Physics is the natural science that studies matter, its Elementary particle, fundamental constituents, its Motion (physics), motion and behav ...

digital camera
s, are strongly linked to Moore's law. These step changes in digital electronics have been a driving force of technological and social change,
productivity Productivity is the efficiency Efficiency is the (often measurable) ability to avoid wasting materials, energy, efforts, money, and time in doing something or in producing a desired result. In a more general sense, it is the ability to do thin ...
, and economic growth. Industry experts have not reached a consensus on exactly when Moore's law will cease to apply. Microprocessor architects report that semiconductor advancement has slowed industry-wide since around 2010, below the pace predicted by Moore's law. However, , leading semiconductor manufacturers have developed IC fabrication processes in mass production which are claimed to keep pace with Moore's law.


History

In 1959,
Douglas Engelbart Douglas Carl Engelbart (January 30, 1925 – July 2, 2013) was an engineer Engineers, as practitioners of engineering, are Professional, professionals who Invention, invent, design, analyze, build and test Machine, machines, complex sys ...
discussed the projected downscaling of
integrated circuit An integrated circuit or monolithic integrated circuit (also referred to as an IC, a chip, or a microchip) is a set of electronic circuit 200px, A circuit built on a printed circuit board (PCB). An electronic circuit is composed of indiv ...

integrated circuit
(IC) size in the article "Microelectronics, and the Art of Similitude". Engelbart presented his ideas at the 1960
International Solid-State Circuits Conference International Solid-State Circuits Conference is a global forum for presentation of advances in solid-state electrical network, circuits and System-on-a-chip, Systems-on-a-Chip. The Conference offers a unique opportunity for engineers working at ...
, where Moore was present in the audience. That same year,
Mohamed Atalla Mohamed M. Atalla ( ar, محمد عطاالله; August 4, 1924 – December 30, 2009) was an Egyptian-American engineer, physical chemist Physical chemistry is the study of macroscopic The macroscopic scale is the length scale on which ...
and
Dawon Kahng Dawon Kahng ( ko, 강대원; May 4, 1931 – May 13, 1992) was a Korean-American electrical engineer and inventor, known for his work in solid-state electronics Solid-state electronics means semiconductor A semiconductor material has an el ...

Dawon Kahng
invented the
MOSFET The metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET, MOS-FET, or MOS FET), also known as the metal–oxide–silicon transistor (MOS transistor, or MOS), is a type of insulated-gate field-effect transistor that is fabricated by th ...

MOSFET
(metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor), also known as the MOS transistor, at
Bell Labs Nokia Bell Labs (formerly named Bell Labs Innovations (1996–2007), AT&T Bell Laboratories (1984–1996) and Bell Telephone Laboratories (1925–1984)) is an American industrial research and scientific development company A company, abbrev ...
. The MOSFET was the first truly compact
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transistor
that could be miniaturized and mass-produced for a wide range of uses, with its high scalability and low
power consumption Electric energy consumption is the form of energy consumption Energy consumption is the amount of energy or power used. Biology In the body, energy consumption is part of energy homeostasis. It derived from food energy. Energy consumption in ...
resulting in a higher
transistor density upright=1.4, gate File:Kebun Raya Bali Candi Bentar IMG 8794.jpg, Candi bentar, a typical Indonesian gate that is often found on the islands of Java and Bali A gate or gateway is a point of entry to or from a space enclosed by walls. The w ...
and making it possible to build high-density IC chips. In the early 1960s, Gordon E. Moore recognized that the ideal electrical and scaling characteristics of MOSFET devices would lead to rapidly increasing integration levels and unparalleled growth in
electronic Electronic may refer to: *Electronics Electronics comprises the physics, engineering, technology and applications that deal with the emission, flow and control of electrons in vacuum and matter. It uses active devices to control electron flow b ...
applications. In 1965, Gordon Moore, who at the time was working as the director of research and development at
Fairchild Semiconductor Fairchild Semiconductor International, Inc. was an American semiconductor A semiconductor material has an electrical conductivity Electrical resistivity (also called specific electrical resistance or volume resistivity) is a fundamental pr ...
, was asked to contribute to the thirty-fifth anniversary issue of ''
Electronics The field of electronics is a branch of physics and electrical engineering that deals with the emission, behaviour and effects of electrons The electron is a subatomic particle In physical sciences, subatomic particles are smaller than ...
'' magazine with a prediction on the future of the semiconductor components industry over the next ten years. His response was a brief article entitled "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits". Within his editorial, he speculated that by 1975 it would be possible to contain as many as 65,000 components on a single quarter-square-inch semiconductor.
The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years.
Moore posited a log-linear relationship between device complexity (higher circuit density at reduced cost) and time. In a 2015 interview, Moore noted of the 1965 article: "...I just did a wild extrapolation saying it’s going to continue to double every year for the next 10 years." In 1974,
Robert H. Dennard Robert Dennard (born September 5, 1932) is an American American(s) may refer to: * American, something of, from, or related to the United States of America, commonly known as the United States The United States of America (USA), commonly k ...
at
IBM International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Armonk, New York, with operations in over 170 countries. The company began in 1911, founded in Endicott, New York, as the C ...

IBM
recognized the rapid MOSFET scaling technology and formulated what became known as
Dennard scalingDennard may refer to: People with the surname * Alfonzo Dennard, a professional American football cornerback, cousin to Darqueze * Amery Dennard, known as Big Herk, an American rapper * Brazeal Dennard, an American singer and educator * Darqueze ...
, which describes that as MOS transistors get smaller, their
power density Power density is the amount of power Power typically refers to: * Power (physics) In physics, power is the amount of energy transferred or converted per unit time. In the International System of Units, the unit of power is the watt, equal to ...
stays constant such that the power use remains in proportion with area. MOSFET scaling and miniaturization have been the key driving forces behind Moore's law. Evidence from the semiconductor industry shows that this inverse relationship between power density and areal density broke down in the mid-2000s. At the 1975 IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting, Moore revised his forecast rate, predicting semiconductor complexity would continue to double annually until about 1980, after which it would decrease to a rate of doubling approximately every two years. He outlined several contributing factors for this exponential behavior: * The advent of
metal–oxide–semiconductor The metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET, MOS-FET, or MOS FET), also known as the metal–oxide–silicon transistor (MOS transistor, or MOS), is a type of insulated-gate field-effect transistor The field-effect tran ...
(MOS) technology * The exponential rate of increase in die sizes, coupled with a decrease in defective densities, with the result that semiconductor manufacturers could work with larger areas without losing reduction yields * Finer minimum dimensions * What Moore called "circuit and device cleverness" Shortly after 1975,
Caltech The California Institute of Technology (Caltech)The university itself only spells its short form as "Caltech"; other spellings such a"Cal Tech" and "CalTech" are incorrect. The Institute is also occasionally referred to as "CIT", most notably i ...
professor
Carver Mead Carver Andress Mead (born 1 May 1934) is an American scientist and engineer. He currently holds the position of Gordon and Betty Moore Professor Emeritus of Engineering and Applied Science at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), ha ...
popularized the term "Moore's law".in reference to Gordon E. Moore's statements at the IEEE. Moore's law eventually came to be widely accepted as a goal for the semiconductor industry, and it was cited by competitive semiconductor manufacturers as they strove to increase processing power. Moore viewed his eponymous law as surprising and optimistic: "Moore's law is a violation of
Murphy's law Murphy's law is an adage or epigram that is typically stated as: "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong". History The perceived perversity of the universe The universe ( la, universus) is all of space and time and their contents, i ...
. Everything gets better and better." The observation was even seen as a
self-fulfilling prophecy A self-fulfilling prophecy is the sociopsychological phenomenon of someone "predicting" or expecting something, and this "prediction" or Expectation (epistemic), expectation coming true simply because the person ''believes'' or Anticipation, antic ...
. The doubling period is often misquoted as 18 months because of a prediction by Moore's colleague, Intel executive David House. In 1975, House noted that Moore's revised law of doubling transistor count every 2 years in turn implied that computer chip performance would roughly double every 18 months (with no increase in power consumption). Moore's law is closely related to MOSFET scaling, as the rapid scaling and miniaturization of MOSFETs is the key driving force behind Moore's law. Mathematically, Moore's Law predicted that transistor count would double every 2 years due to shrinking transistor dimensions and other improvements. As a consequence of shrinking dimensions, Dennard scaling predicted that power consumption per unit area would remain constant. Combining these effects, David House deduced that computer chip performance would roughly double every 18 months. Also due to Dennard scaling, this increased performance would not be accompanied by increased power, i.e., the energy-efficiency of
silicon Silicon is a chemical element with the Symbol (chemistry), symbol Si and atomic number 14. It is a hard, brittle crystalline solid with a blue-grey metallic lustre, and is a Tetravalence, tetravalent metalloid and semiconductor. It is a member ...

silicon
-based computer chips roughly doubles every 18 months. Dennard scaling ended in the 2000s. Koomey later showed that a similar rate of efficiency improvement predated silicon chips and Moore's Law, for technologies such as vacuum tubes. Microprocessor architects report that since around 2010, semiconductor advancement has slowed industry-wide below the pace predicted by Moore's law.
Brian Krzanich Brian Matthew Krzanich (born May 9, 1960) is an American engineer and businessman currently serving as the chief executive officer A chief executive officer (CEO), chief administrator, or just chief executive (CE), is one of a number of corpo ...

Brian Krzanich
, the former CEO of Intel, cited Moore's 1975 revision as a precedent for the current deceleration, which results from technical challenges and is "a natural part of the history of Moore's law". The rate of improvement in physical dimensions known as Dennard scaling also ended in the mid-2000s. As a result, much of the semiconductor industry has shifted its focus to the needs of major computing applications rather than semiconductor scaling. Nevertheless, leading semiconductor manufacturers
TSMC Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited (TSMC; zh, t=台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司, c=, s=, p=Táiwān jī tǐ diànlù zhìzào gǔfèn yǒuxiàn gōngsī, also called Taiwan Semiconductor) is a Taiwan Taiwan () ...
and
Samsung Electronics Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (; lit. "tristar electronics", sometimes shortened to SEC and stylized as SΛMSUNG) is a South Korean multinational Multinational may refer to: * Multinational corporation, a corporate organization operating in ...
have claimed to keep pace with Moore's law with 10 nm and
7 nm In semiconductor manufacturing, the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors defines the 7 Nanometre, nm process as the MOSFET technology node following the 10 nm process, 10 nm node. It is based on FinFET (fin field-effect ...
nodes in mass production and 5 nm nodes in risk production.


Moore's second law

As the cost of computer power to the
consumer A consumer is a person or a group who intends to order, orders, or uses purchased goods, products, or services Service may refer to: Activities :''(See the Religion section for religious activities)'' * Administrative service, a required part o ...
falls, the cost for producers to fulfill Moore's law follows an opposite trend: R&D, manufacturing, and test costs have increased steadily with each new generation of chips. Rising manufacturing costs are an important consideration for the sustaining of Moore's law. This had led to the formulation of Moore's second law, also called Rock's law, which is that the
capital Capital most commonly refers to: * Capital letter Letter case (or just case) is the distinction between the letters that are in larger uppercase or capitals (or more formally ''majuscule'') and smaller lowercase (or more formally ''minusc ...
cost of a semiconductor fab also increases exponentially over time.


Major enabling factors

Numerous innovations by scientists and engineers have sustained Moore's law since the beginning of the IC era. Some of the key innovations are listed below, as examples of breakthroughs that have advanced integrated circuit and
semiconductor device fabrication Semiconductor device fabrication is the process used to manufacture semiconductor devices, typically the metal–oxide–semiconductor (MOS) devices used in the integrated circuit (IC) chips such as modern computer processors, microcontrollers ...
technology, allowing
transistor count upright=1.4, gate File:Kebun Raya Bali Candi Bentar IMG 8794.jpg, Candi bentar, a typical Indonesian gate that is often found on the islands of Java and Bali A gate or gateway is a point of entry to or from a space enclosed by walls. The w ...
s to grow by more than seven orders of magnitude in less than five decades. *
Integrated circuit An integrated circuit or monolithic integrated circuit (also referred to as an IC, a chip, or a microchip) is a set of electronic circuit 200px, A circuit built on a printed circuit board (PCB). An electronic circuit is composed of indiv ...

Integrated circuit
(IC) The ''raison d'être'' for Moore's law. The
germanium Germanium is a chemical element with the Symbol (chemistry), symbol Ge and atomic number 32. It is a lustrous, hard-brittle, grayish-white metalloid in the carbon group, chemically similar to its group neighbors silicon and tin. Pure germanium i ...

germanium
hybrid IC was invented by
Jack Kilby Jack St. Clair Kilby (November 8, 1923 – June 20, 2005) was an American electrical engineer who took part (along with Robert Noyce of Fairchild) in the realization of the first integrated circuit while working at Texas Instruments (TI) in 1 ...
at
Texas Instruments Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) is an America The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America North America is a ...
in 1958, followed by the invention of the
silicon Silicon is a chemical element with the Symbol (chemistry), symbol Si and atomic number 14. It is a hard, brittle crystalline solid with a blue-grey metallic lustre, and is a Tetravalence, tetravalent metalloid and semiconductor. It is a member ...

silicon
monolithic IC chip by
Robert Noyce Robert Norton Noyce (December 12, 1927 – June 3, 1990), nicknamed "the Mayor of Silicon Valley", was an American physicist and entrepreneur who co-founded Fairchild Semiconductor Fairchild Semiconductor International, Inc. was an American s ...
at
Fairchild Semiconductor Fairchild Semiconductor International, Inc. was an American semiconductor A semiconductor material has an electrical conductivity Electrical resistivity (also called specific electrical resistance or volume resistivity) is a fundamental pr ...
in 1959. *
Metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor The metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET, MOS-FET, or MOS FET), also known as the metal–oxide–silicon transistor (MOS transistor, or MOS), is a type of insulated-gate field-effect transistor that is fabricated by th ...
(MOSFET) Invented by
Mohamed M. Atalla Mohamed M. Atalla ( ar, محمد عطاالله; August 4, 1924 – December 30, 2009) was an Egyptian-American engineer, physical chemist Physical chemistry is the study of macroscopic The macroscopic scale is the length scale on which ...

Mohamed M. Atalla
and
Dawon Kahng Dawon Kahng ( ko, 강대원; May 4, 1931 – May 13, 1992) was a Korean-American electrical engineer and inventor, known for his work in solid-state electronics Solid-state electronics means semiconductor A semiconductor material has an el ...

Dawon Kahng
at
Bell Labs Nokia Bell Labs (formerly named Bell Labs Innovations (1996–2007), AT&T Bell Laboratories (1984–1996) and Bell Telephone Laboratories (1925–1984)) is an American industrial research and scientific development company A company, abbrev ...
in 1959, it was the first transistor that could be miniaturized and mass produced, due to its high scalability. ** Complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor (CMOS) The CMOS process was invented by
Chih-Tang Sah Chih-Tang "Tom" Sah (; born in November 1932 in Beijing Beijing ( ), Chinese postal romanization, alternatively romanized as Peking ( ), is the Capital city, capital of the People's Republic of China. It is the world's List of national ca ...
and
Frank WanlassDr. Frank Marion Wanlass (May 17, 1933 in Thatcher, AZ – September 9, 2010 in Santa Clara, California California is a U.S. state, state in the Western United States. With over 39.3million residents across a total area of approximately ...
at Fairchild Semiconductor in 1963. ** Dynamic
random-access memory Random-access memory (RAM; ) is a form of computer memory In computing Computing is any goal-oriented activity requiring, benefiting from, or creating computing machinery. It includes the study and experimentation of algorithmic proces ...
(
DRAM Dynamic random-access memory (dynamic RAM or DRAM) is a type of random-access Random access (more precisely and more generally called direct access) is the ability to access an arbitrary element of a sequence in equal time or any datum fr ...
) DRAM was developed by
Toshiba is a Japanese multinational Multinational may refer to: * Multinational corporation, a corporate organization operating in multiple countries * Multinational force, a military body from multiple countries * Multinational state, a sovereign st ...
in 1965,Toshiba "Toscal" BC-1411 Desktop Calculator
and then MOS DRAM was independently developed by
Robert H. Dennard Robert Dennard (born September 5, 1932) is an American American(s) may refer to: * American, something of, from, or related to the United States of America, commonly known as the United States The United States of America (USA), commonly k ...
at
IBM International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Armonk, New York, with operations in over 170 countries. The company began in 1911, founded in Endicott, New York, as the C ...

IBM
in 1967. MOS DRAM made it possible to fabricate single-transistor memory cells on IC chips. * Chemically-amplified photoresist Invented by Hiroshi Ito, C. Grant Willson and J. M. J. Fréchet at IBM ''circa'' 1980, which was 5-10 times more sensitive to ultraviolet light. IBM introduced chemically amplified photoresist for DRAM production in the mid-1980s. * Deep UV excimer laser
photolithography In manufacturing, photolithography or optical lithography is a general term for techniques that use to produce minutely patterned s of suitable materials over a substrate, such as a , to protect selected areas of it during subsequent , , or op ...
Invented by Kanti Jain at IBM ''circa'' 1980.Jain, K. "Excimer Laser Lithography", SPIE Press, Bellingham, WA, 1990. Prior to this,
excimer laser An excimer laser, sometimes more correctly called an exciplex laser, is a form of ultraviolet laser which is commonly used in the production of microelectronic devices, semiconductor based integrated circuits or "chips", eye surgery, and microelectr ...
s had been mainly used as research devices since their development in the 1970s. From a broader scientific perspective, the invention of excimer laser lithography has been highlighted as one of the major milestones in the 50-year history of the laser. *
Interconnect In telecommunications, interconnection is the physical linking of a common carrier, carrier's telecommunications network, network with equipment or facilities not belonging to that network. The term may refer to a connection between a carrier's ...
innovations Interconnect innovations of the late 1990s, including chemical-mechanical polishing or chemical mechanical planarization (CMP), trench isolation, and copper interconnects—although not directly a factor in creating smaller transistors—have enabled improved
wafer A wafer is a crisp, often sweet, very thin, flat, light and dry cookie A cookie is a baked Baking is a method of preparing food that uses dry heat, typically in an oven, but can also be done in hot ashes, or on hot stones. The most comm ...
yield, additional layers of metal wires, closer spacing of devices, and lower electrical resistance. "Table1: 1990 enabling multilevel metallization; 1995 enabling STI compact isolation, polysilicon patterning and yield / defect reduction" Computer industry technology road maps predicted in 2001 that Moore's law would continue for several generations of semiconductor chips.


Recent trends

One of the key challenges of engineering future
nanoscale Image:Protein translation.gif, 300px, A ribosome is a biological machine that utilizes nanoscale protein dynamics The nanoscopic scale (or nanoscale) usually refers to structures with a length scale applicable to nanotechnology, usually cited ...
transistors is the design of gates. As device dimension shrinks, controlling the current flow in the thin channel becomes more difficult. Modern nanoscale transistors typically take the form of
multi-gate MOSFET A multigate device, multi-gate MOSFET or multi-gate field-effect transistor (MuGFET) refers to a metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) that incorporates more than one gate (transistor), gate into a single device. The multip ...
s, with the
FinFET A fin field-effect transistor (FinFET) is a multigate device, a MOSFET (metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor) built on a Wafer (electronics), substrate where the gate is placed on two, three, or four sides of the channel or wrapped ar ...
being the most common nanoscale transistor. The FinFET has gate dielectric on three sides of the channel. In comparison, the
gate-all-around A multigate device, multi-gate MOSFET or multi-gate field-effect transistor (MuGFET) refers to a metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) that incorporates more than one gate (transistor), gate into a single device. The multip ...
MOSFET (
GAAFET A multigate device, multi-gate MOSFET or multi-gate field-effect transistor (MuGFET) refers to a metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) that has more than one gate (transistor), gate into a single device. The multiple gat ...
) structure has even better gate control. * A
gate-all-around A multigate device, multi-gate MOSFET or multi-gate field-effect transistor (MuGFET) refers to a metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) that incorporates more than one gate (transistor), gate into a single device. The multip ...
MOSFET (GAAFET) was first demonstrated in 1988, by a
Toshiba is a Japanese multinational Multinational may refer to: * Multinational corporation, a corporate organization operating in multiple countries * Multinational force, a military body from multiple countries * Multinational state, a sovereign st ...
research team led by
Fujio Masuoka is a Japanese engineer, who has worked for Toshiba is a Japanese headquartered in , . Its diversified products and services include power, industrial and social infrastructure systems, elevators and escalators, electronic components, s, s ...
, who demonstrated a vertical nanowire GAAFET which he called a "surrounding gate transistor" (SGT). Masuoka, best known as the inventor of
flash memory Flash memory is an electronic Electronic may refer to: *Electronics Electronics comprises the physics, engineering, technology and applications that deal with the emission, flow and control of electrons in vacuum and matter. It uses act ...
, later left Toshiba and founded Unisantis Electronics in 2004 to research surrounding-gate technology along with
Tohoku University , or is a Japanese national university As of 2010, there were 86 , 95 public universities and 597 private universities in Japan , image_flag = Flag of Japan.svg , alt_flag = Centered deep red circl ...
. * In 2006, a team of Korean researchers from the
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology KAIST (formally the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology) is a national National may refer to: Common uses * Nation A nation is a community of people formed on the basis of a common language, history, ethnicity, or a commo ...
(KAIST) and the National Nano Fab Center developed a 3 nm transistor, the world's smallest
nanoelectronic Nanoelectronics refers to the use of nanotechnology Nanotechnology, also shortened to nanotech, is the use of matter on an atomic, molecular, and Supramolecular complex, supramolecular scale for industrial purposes. The earliest, widespread de ...
device at time, based on FinFET technology. * In 2010, researchers at the Tyndall National Institute in Cork, Ireland announced a junctionless transistor. A control gate wrapped around a silicon nanowire can control the passage of electrons without the use of junctions or doping. They claim these may be produced at 10-nanometer scale using existing fabrication techniques. * In 2011, researchers at the University of Pittsburgh announced the development of a single-electron transistor, 1.5 nanometers in diameter, made out of oxide-based materials. Three "wires" converge on a central "island" that can house one or two electrons. Electrons tunnel from one wire to another through the island. Conditions on the third wire result in distinct conductive properties including the ability of the transistor to act as a solid state memory. Nanowire transistors could spur the creation of microscopic computers. * In 2012, a research team at the
University of New South Wales The University of New South Wales (UNSW), also known as UNSW Sydney, is a public In public relations and communication science, publics are groups of individual people, and the public (a.k.a. the general public) is the totality of such g ...
announced the development of the first working transistor consisting of a single atom placed precisely in a silicon crystal (not just picked from a large sample of random transistors). Moore's law predicted this milestone to be reached for ICs in the lab by 2020. * In 2015, IBM demonstrated
7 nm In semiconductor manufacturing, the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors defines the 7 Nanometre, nm process as the MOSFET technology node following the 10 nm process, 10 nm node. It is based on FinFET (fin field-effect ...
node chips with
silicon-germaniumSiGe ( or ), or silicon-germanium, is an alloy An alloy is an admixture of metal A metal (from Ancient Greek, Greek μέταλλον ''métallon'', "mine, quarry, metal") is a material that, when freshly prepared, polished, or fractured, ...
transistors produced using EUVL. The company believes this transistor density would be four times that of current
14 nm The 14  nm process refers to the MOSFET The metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET, MOS-FET, or MOS FET), also known as the metal–oxide–silicon transistor (MOS transistor, or MOS), is a type of insulated-gate fi ...
chips. * Samsung and TSMC plan to manufacture 3nm GAAFET nodes by 20212022. Note that node names, such as 3nm, have no relation to the physical size of device elements (transistors). * A
Toshiba is a Japanese multinational Multinational may refer to: * Multinational corporation, a corporate organization operating in multiple countries * Multinational force, a military body from multiple countries * Multinational state, a sovereign st ...
research team including T. Imoto, M. Matsui and C. Takubo developed a "System Block Module" wafer bonding process for manufacturing
three-dimensional integrated circuit A three-dimensional integrated circuit (3D IC) is a MOS (metal-oxide semiconductor) integrated circuit An integrated circuit or monolithic integrated circuit (also referred to as an IC, a chip, or a microchip) is a set of electronic circui ...
(3D IC) packages in 2001. In April 2007, Toshiba introduced an eight-layer 3D IC, the 16 THGAM embedded
NAND flash Flash memory is an Integrated circuit, electronic Non-volatile memory, non-volatile computer memory storage medium that can be electrically erased and reprogrammed. The two main types of flash memory, NOR flash and NAND flash, are named for ...
memory chip which was manufactured with eight stacked 2GB NAND flash chips. In September 2007,
Hynix SK hynix Inc. () is a South Korean memory semiconductor supplier of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips and flash memory chips. Hynix is the world's second-largest memory chipmaker (after Samsung Electronics) and the world's 3rd-largest sem ...

Hynix
introduced 24-layer 3D IC, a 16GB flash memory chip that was manufactured with 24 stacked NAND flash chips using a wafer bonding process. *
V-NAND Flash memory is an electronic Electronic may refer to: *Electronics Electronics comprises the physics, engineering, technology and applications that deal with the emission, flow and control of electrons in vacuum and matter. It uses act ...
, also known as 3D NAND, allows flash memory cells to be stacked vertically using charge trap flash technology originally presented by John Szedon in 1967, significantly increasing the number of transistors on a flash memory chip. 3D NAND was first announced by Toshiba in 2007. V-NAND was first commercially manufactured by
Samsung Electronics Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (; lit. "tristar electronics", sometimes shortened to SEC and stylized as SΛMSUNG) is a South Korean multinational Multinational may refer to: * Multinational corporation, a corporate organization operating in ...
in 2013. * In 2008, researchers at HP Labs announced a working
memristor A memristor (; a portmanteau of ''memory resistor'') is a non-linear terminal (electronics), two-terminal electronic component, electrical component relating electric charge and magnetic flux linkage. It was described and named in 1971 by Leon C ...

memristor
, a fourth basic passive circuit element whose existence only had been theorized previously. The memristor's unique properties permit the creation of smaller and better-performing electronic devices. * In 2014, bioengineers at
Stanford University Stanford University, officially Leland Stanford Junior University, is a private Private or privates may refer to: Music * "In Private "In Private" was the third single in a row to be a charting success for United Kingdom, British singer Du ...

Stanford University
developed a circuit modeled on the human brain. Sixteen "Neurocore" chips simulate one million neurons and billions of synaptic connections, claimed to be 9,000 times faster as well as more energy efficient than a typical PC. * In 2015, Intel and
Micron The micrometre ( international spelling as used by the International Bureau of Weights and Measures The International Bureau of Weights and Measures (french: Bureau international des poids et mesures, BIPM) is an intergovernmental organ ...
announced
3D XPoint 3D XPoint (pronounced ''three dee cross point'') is a non-volatile memory (NVM) technology developed jointly by Intel and Micron Technology. It was announced in July 2015 and is available on the open market under the brand name Optane (Intel) sin ...

3D XPoint
, a
non-volatile memory Non-volatile memory (NVM) or non-volatile storage is a type of computer memory that can retain stored information even after power is removed. In contrast, volatile memory needs constant power in order to retain data. Examples of non-volatile ...
claimed to be significantly faster with similar density compared to NAND. Production scheduled to begin in 2016 was delayed until the second half of 2017. * In 2017, Samsung combined its V-NAND technology with eUFS 3D IC stacking to produce a 512GB flash memory chip, with eight stacked 64-layer V-NAND dies. In 2019, Samsung produced a 1 TB flash chip with eight stacked 96-layer V-NAND dies, along with quad-level cell (QLC) technology (
4-bit In , 4-bit s, or other units are those that are 4 s wide. Also, 4-bit and architectures are those that are based on s, or es of that size. es (and thus es) for 4-bit CPUs are generally much larger than 4-bit (since only 16 memory locatio ...
per transistor), equivalent to 2trillion transistors, the highest
transistor count upright=1.4, gate File:Kebun Raya Bali Candi Bentar IMG 8794.jpg, Candi bentar, a typical Indonesian gate that is often found on the islands of Java and Bali A gate or gateway is a point of entry to or from a space enclosed by walls. The w ...
of any IC chip. * In 2020,
Samsung Electronics Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (; lit. "tristar electronics", sometimes shortened to SEC and stylized as SΛMSUNG) is a South Korean multinational Multinational may refer to: * Multinational corporation, a corporate organization operating in ...
plans to produce the 5 nm node, using FinFET and EUV technology. * In May 2021, IBM announces the creation of the first 2 nm computer chip, with parts supposedly being smaller than human DNA. Microprocessor architects report that semiconductor advancement has slowed industry-wide since around 2010, below the pace predicted by Moore's law. Brian Krzanich, the former CEO of Intel, announced, "Our cadence today is closer to two and a half years than two." Intel stated in 2015 that improvements in MOSFET devices have slowed, starting at the 22 nm feature width around 2012, and continuing at
14 nm The 14  nm process refers to the MOSFET The metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET, MOS-FET, or MOS FET), also known as the metal–oxide–silicon transistor (MOS transistor, or MOS), is a type of insulated-gate fi ...
. The physical limits to transistor scaling have been reached due to source-to-drain leakage, limited gate metals and limited options for channel material. Other approaches are being investigated, which do not rely on physical scaling. These include the spin state of electron spintronics, tunnel junctions, and advanced confinement of channel materials via nano-wire geometry. Spin-based logic and memory options are being developed actively in labs.


Alternative materials research

The vast majority of current transistors on ICs are composed principally of Doping (semiconductor), doped silicon and its alloys. As silicon is fabricated into single nanometer transistors, short-channel effects adversely change desired material properties of silicon as a functional transistor. Below are several non-silicon substitutes in the fabrication of small nanometer transistors. One proposed material is Indium gallium arsenide#Applications, indium gallium arsenide, or InGaAs. Compared to their silicon and germanium counterparts, InGaAs transistors are more promising for future high-speed, low-power logic applications. Because of intrinsic characteristics of List of semiconductor materials#Compound semiconductors, III-V compound semiconductors, quantum well and tunnel field-effect transistor, tunnel effect transistors based on InGaAs have been proposed as alternatives to more traditional MOSFET designs. * In the early 2000s, the atomic layer deposition high-κ dielectric, high-κ thin film, film and pitch double patterning, double-patterning processes were invented by Gurtej Sandhu, Gurtej Singh Sandhu at Micron Technology, extending Moore's law for planar CMOS technology to 32 nanometer, 30 nm class and smaller. * In 2009, Intel announced the development of 80-nanometer InGaAs quantum well transistors. Quantum well devices contain a material sandwiched between two layers of material with a wider band gap. Despite being double the size of leading pure silicon transistors at the time, the company reported that they performed equally as well while consuming less power. * In 2011, researchers at Intel demonstrated 3-D Multigate device#Types, tri-gate InGaAs transistors with improved leakage characteristics compared to traditional planar designs. The company claims that their design achieved the best electrostatics of any III-V compound semiconductor transistor. At the 2015
International Solid-State Circuits Conference International Solid-State Circuits Conference is a global forum for presentation of advances in solid-state electrical network, circuits and System-on-a-chip, Systems-on-a-Chip. The Conference offers a unique opportunity for engineers working at ...
, Intel mentioned the use of III-V compounds based on such an architecture for their 7 nanometer node. * In 2011, researchers at the University of Texas at Austin developed an InGaAs tunneling field-effect transistors capable of higher operating currents than previous designs. The first III-V TFET designs were demonstrated in 2009 by a joint team from Cornell University and Pennsylvania State University. * In 2012, a team in MIT's Microsystems Technology Laboratories developed a 22 nm transistor based on InGaAs which, at the time, was the smallest non-silicon transistor ever built. The team used techniques currently used in silicon device fabrication and aims for better electrical performance and a reduction to 10 nanometer, 10-nanometer scale. Biological computing research shows that biological material has superior information density and energy efficiency compared to silicon-based computing. Various forms of graphene are being studied for graphene electronics, e.g. graphene nanoribbon graphene transistor, transistors have shown great promise since its appearance in publications in 2008. (Bulk graphene has a band gap of zero and thus cannot be used in transistors because of its constant conductivity, an inability to turn off. The zigzag edges of the nanoribbons introduce localized energy states in the conduction and valence bands and thus a bandgap that enables switching when fabricated as a transistor. As an example, a typical GNR of width of 10 nm has a desirable bandgap energy of 0.4eV.) More research will need to be performed, however, on sub 50 nm graphene layers, as its resistivity value increases and thus electron mobility decreases.


Forecasts and roadmaps

In April 2005,
Gordon Moore Gordon Earle Moore (born January 3, 1929) is an American businessman, , and the and chairman emeritus of . He is also the author of . As of March 2021, Moore's is reported to be $12.6 billion. Education Moore was born in , , and ...

Gordon Moore
stated in an interview that the projection cannot be sustained indefinitely: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens." He also noted that transistors eventually would reach the limits of miniaturization at atomic levels: In 2016 the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, after using Moore's Law to drive the industry since 1998, produced its final roadmap. It no longer centered its research and development plan on Moore's law. Instead, it outlined what might be called the More than Moore strategy in which the needs of applications drive chip development, rather than a focus on semiconductor scaling. Application drivers range from smartphones to AI to data centers. IEEE began a road-mapping initiative in 2016, "Rebooting Computing", named the International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (IRDS). Most forecasters, including Gordon Moore, expect Moore's law will end by around 2025. Although Moore’s Law will reach a physical limitation, many forecasters are optimistic about the continuation of technological progress in a variety of other areas, including new chip architectures, quantum computing, and AI and machine learning.


Consequences

Digital electronics have contributed to world economic growth in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. The primary driving force of economic growth is the growth of
productivity Productivity is the efficiency Efficiency is the (often measurable) ability to avoid wasting materials, energy, efforts, money, and time in doing something or in producing a desired result. In a more general sense, it is the ability to do thin ...
, and Moore's law factors into productivity. Moore (1995) expected that "the rate of technological progress is going to be controlled from financial realities". The reverse could and did occur around the late-1990s, however, with economists reporting that "Productivity growth is the key economic indicator of innovation." Moore's law describes a driving force of technological and social change, productivity, and economic growth. An acceleration in the rate of semiconductor progress contributed to a surge in U.S. productivity growth, which reached 3.4% per year in 1997–2004, outpacing the 1.6% per year during both 1972–1996 and 2005–2013. As economist Richard G. Anderson notes, "Numerous studies have traced the cause of the productivity acceleration to technological innovations in the production of semiconductors that sharply reduced the prices of such components and of the products that contain them (as well as expanding the capabilities of such products)." The primary negative implication of Moore's law is that obsolescence pushes society up against the Limits to Growth. As technologies continue to rapidly "improve", they render predecessor technologies obsolete. In situations in which security and survivability of hardware or data are paramount, or in which resources are limited, rapid obsolescence often poses obstacles to smooth or continued operations. Because of the intensive resource footprint and toxic materials used in the production of computers, obsolescence leads to serious Limits to Growth, harmful environmental impacts. Americans throw out 400,000 cell phones every day, but this high level of obsolescence appears to companies as an opportunity to generate regular sales of expensive new equipment, instead of retaining one device for a longer period of time, leading to industry using planned obsolescence as a profit centre. An alternative source of improved performance is in microarchitecture techniques exploiting the growth of available transistor count. Out-of-order execution and on-chip CPU cache, caching and Instruction prefetch, prefetching reduce the memory latency bottleneck at the expense of using more transistors and increasing the processor complexity. These increases are described empirically by Pollack's Rule, which states that performance increases due to microarchitecture techniques approximate the square root of the complexity (number of transistors or the area) of a processor. For years, processor makers delivered increases in clock rates and instruction-level parallelism, so that single-threaded code executed faster on newer processors with no modification. Now, to manage CPU power dissipation, processor makers favor multi-core chip designs, and software has to be written in a multi-threaded manner to take full advantage of the hardware. Many multi-threaded development paradigms introduce overhead, and will not see a linear increase in speed vs number of processors. This is particularly true while accessing shared or dependent resources, due to Lock (computer science), lock contention. This effect becomes more noticeable as the number of processors increases. There are cases where a roughly 45% increase in processor transistors has translated to roughly 10–20% increase in processing power. On the other hand, manufacturers are adding specialized processing units to deal with features such as graphics, video, and cryptography. For one example, Intel's Parallel JavaScript extension not only adds support for multiple cores, but also for the other non-general processing features of their chips, as part of the migration in client side scripting toward HTML5. Moore's law has affected the performance of other technologies significantly: Michael S. Malone wrote of a Moore's War following the apparent success of shock and awe in the early days of the Iraq War. Progress in the development of guided weapons depends on electronic technology. Improvements in circuit density and low-power operation associated with Moore's law also have contributed to the development of technologies including mobile phones, mobile telephones and 3D printing, 3-D printing.


Other formulations and similar observations

Several measures of digital technology are improving at exponential rates related to Moore's law, including the size, cost, density, and speed of components. Moore wrote only about the density of components, "a component being a transistor, resistor, diode or capacitor", at minimum cost. Transistors per integrated circuit – The most popular formulation is of the doubling of the number of transistors on ICs every two years. At the end of the 1970s, Moore's law became known as the limit for the number of transistors on the most complex chips. The graph at the top shows this trend holds true today. As of 2017, the commercially available processor possessing the highest number of transistors is the 48 core Qualcomm Centriq, Centriq with over 18 billion transistors.


Density at minimum cost per transistor

This is the formulation given in Moore's 1965 paper. It is not just about the density of transistors that can be achieved, but about the density of transistors at which the cost per transistor is the lowest. As more transistors are put on a chip, the cost to make each transistor decreases, but the chance that the chip will not work due to a defect increases. In 1965, Moore examined the density of transistors at which cost is minimized, and observed that, as transistors were made smaller through advances in
photolithography In manufacturing, photolithography or optical lithography is a general term for techniques that use to produce minutely patterned s of suitable materials over a substrate, such as a , to protect selected areas of it during subsequent , , or op ...
, this number would increase at "a rate of roughly a factor of two per year". Dennard scaling – This posits that power usage would decrease in proportion to area (both voltage and current being proportional to length) of transistors. Combined with Moore's law, performance per watt would grow at roughly the same rate as transistor density, doubling every 1–2 years. According to Dennard scaling transistor dimensions would be scaled by 30% (0.7x) every technology generation, thus reducing their area by 50%. This would reduce the delay by 30% (0.7x) and therefore increase operating frequency by about 40% (1.4x). Finally, to keep electric field constant, voltage would be reduced by 30%, reducing energy by 65% and power (at 1.4x frequency) by 50%. Therefore, in every technology generation transistor density would double, circuit becomes 40% faster, while power consumption (with twice the number of transistors) stays the same. Dennard scaling came to end in 2005–2010, due to leakage currents. The exponential processor transistor growth predicted by Moore does not always translate into exponentially greater practical CPU performance. Since around 2005–2007, Dennard scaling has ended, so even though Moore's law continued for several years after that, it has not yielded dividends in improved performance. The primary reason cited for the breakdown is that at small sizes, current leakage poses greater challenges, and also causes the chip to heat up, which creates a threat of thermal runaway and therefore, further increases energy costs. The breakdown of Dennard scaling prompted a greater focus on multicore processors, but the gains offered by switching to more cores are lower than the gains that would be achieved had Dennard scaling continued. In another departure from Dennard scaling, Intel microprocessors adopted a non-planar tri-gate FinFET at 22 nm in 2012 that is faster and consumes less power than a conventional planar transistor. The rate of performance improvement for single-core microprocessors has slowed significantly. Single-core performance was improving by 52% per year in 1986–2003 and 23% per year in 2003–2011, but slowed to just seven percent per year in 2011–2018. Quality adjusted price of IT equipment – The Price index, price of information technology (IT), computers and peripheral equipment, adjusted for quality and inflation, declined 16% per year on average over the five decades from 1959 to 2009. The pace accelerated, however, to 23% per year in 1995–1999 triggered by faster IT innovation, and later, slowed to 2% per year in 2010–2013. While quality-adjusted microprocessor price improvement continues, the rate of improvement likewise varies, and is not linear on a log scale. Microprocessor price improvement accelerated during the late 1990s, reaching 60% per year (halving every nine months) versus the typical 30% improvement rate (halving every two years) during the years earlier and later. Laptop microprocessors in particular improved 25–35% per year in 2004–2010, and slowed to 15–25% per year in 2010–2013. The number of transistors per chip cannot explain quality-adjusted microprocessor prices fully. Moore's 1995 paper does not limit Moore's law to strict linearity or to transistor count, "The definition of 'Moore's Law' has come to refer to almost anything related to the semiconductor industry that on a semi-log plot approximates a straight line. I hesitate to review its origins and by doing so restrict its definition." Hard disk drive areal density – A similar prediction (sometimes called Mark Kryder, Kryder's law) was made in 2005 for hard disk drive areal density (computer storage), areal density. The prediction was later viewed as over-optimistic. Several decades of rapid progress in areal density slowed around 2010, from 30–100% per year to 10–15% per year, because of noise related to Superparamagnetism#Effect on hard drives, smaller grain size of the disk media, thermal stability, and writability using available magnetic fields. Fiber-optic capacity – The number of bits per second that can be sent down an optical fiber increases exponentially, faster than Moore's law. Keck's law, in honor of Donald Keck. Network capacity – According to Gerry/Gerald Butters, the former head of Lucent's Optical Networking Group at Bell Labs, there is another version, called Butters' Law of Photonics, a formulation that deliberately parallels Moore's law. Butters' law says that the amount of data coming out of an optical fiber is doubling every nine months. Thus, the cost of transmitting a bit over an optical network decreases by half every nine months. The availability of wavelength-division multiplexing (sometimes called WDM) increased the capacity that could be placed on a single fiber by as much as a factor of 100. Optical networking and Dense WDM, dense wavelength-division multiplexing (DWDM) is rapidly bringing down the cost of networking, and further progress seems assured. As a result, the wholesale price of data traffic collapsed in the dot-com bubble. Nielsen's Law says that the bandwidth available to users increases by 50% annually. Pixels per dollar – Similarly, Barry Hendy of Kodak Australia has plotted pixels per dollar as a basic measure of value for a digital camera, demonstrating the historical linearity (on a log scale) of this market and the opportunity to predict the future trend of digital camera price, LCD and LED screens, and resolution. The great Moore's law compensator (TGMLC), also known as Wirth's law – generally is referred to as software bloat and is the principle that successive generations of computer software increase in size and complexity, thereby offsetting the performance gains predicted by Moore's law. In a 2008 article in InfoWorld, Randall C. Kennedy, formerly of Intel, introduces this term using successive versions of Microsoft Office between the year 2000 and 2007 as his premise. Despite the gains in computational performance during this time period according to Moore's law, Office 2007 performed the same task at half the speed on a prototypical year 2007 computer as compared to Office 2000 on a year 2000 computer. Library expansion – was calculated in 1945 by Fremont Rider to double in capacity every 16 years, if sufficient space were made available. He advocated replacing bulky, decaying printed works with miniaturized microform analog photographs, which could be duplicated on-demand for library patrons or other institutions. He did not foresee the digital technology that would follow decades later to replace analog microform with digital imaging, storage, and transmission media. Automated, potentially lossless digital technologies allowed vast increases in the rapidity of information growth in an era that now sometimes is called the Information Age. Carlson curve – is a term coined by ''The Economist'' to describe the biotechnological equivalent of Moore's law, and is named after author Rob Carlson. Carlson accurately predicted that the doubling time of DNA sequencing technologies (measured by cost and performance) would be at least as fast as Moore's law. Carlson Curves illustrate the rapid (in some cases hyperexponential) decreases in cost, and increases in performance, of a variety of technologies, including DNA sequencing, DNA synthesis, and a range of physical and computational tools used in protein expression and in determining protein structures. Eroom's law – is a pharmaceutical drug development observation which was deliberately written as Moore's Law spelled backwards in order to contrast it with the exponential advancements of other forms of technology (such as transistors) over time. It states that the cost of developing a new drug roughly doubles every nine years. Experience curve effects says that each doubling of the cumulative production of virtually any product or service is accompanied by an approximate constant percentage reduction in the unit cost. The acknowledged first documented qualitative description of this dates from 1885. A power curve was used to describe this phenomenon in a 1936 discussion of the cost of airplanes.Wright, T.P., Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes, ''Journal of Aeronautical Sciences'', 3(4) (1936): 122-128. Edholm's law – Phil Edholm observed that the Bandwidth (signal processing), bandwidth of telecommunication networks (including the Internet) is doubling every 18 months. The bandwidths of online communication networks has risen from bits per second to terabit per second, terabits per second. The rapid rise in online bandwidth is largely due to the same MOSFET scaling that enables Moore's law, as telecommunications networks are built from MOSFETs. Haitz's law predicts that the brightness of LEDs increases as their manufacturing cost goes down. Swanson's law is the observation that the price of solar photovoltaic modules tends to drop 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. At present rates, costs go down 75% about every 10 years.


See also

* * * * * * * * * * *


Notes


References


Further reading

* Brock, David C. (ed.) (2006). ''Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation''. Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation. . . * * Thackray, Arnold; David C. Brock, and Rachel Jones (2015). ''Moore's Law: The Life of Gordon Moore, Silicon Valley's Quiet Revolutionary''. New York: Basic Books. * Tuomi, Ilkka (2002). ''The lives and death of Moore's Law''. First Monday, 7(11), November 2002. https://doi.org/10.5210/fm.v7i11.1000


External links


Intel press kit
– released for Moore's Law's 40th anniversary, with
1965 sketch
by Moore
No Technology has been more disruptive...
Slide show of microchip growth
Intel (IA-32) CPU speeds 1994–2005
– speed increases in recent years have seemed to slow down with regard to percentage increase per year (available in PDF or PNG format)
International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)

"Gordon Moore, His Law, and Integrated Circuit"
''Dream 2047'', October 2006 *
ASML's 'Our Stories', Gordon Moore about Moore's Law
ASML Holding {{Authority control 1965 introductions Computer architecture statements Digital Revolution History of computing hardware MOSFETs Rules of thumb Technological change