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Manifold (prediction Market)
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform. Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'Mana'. Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars. Manifold used to support real money betting using 'sweepcash', but this was sunset on March 28 2025. History Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization. Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program. It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund, and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund. In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny. The conference was hosted again in 2024. Market structure The website u ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Prediction Market
Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A typical prediction market contract is set up to trade between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Robin Hanson
Robin Dale Hanson (born August 28, 1959) is an American economist and author. He is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a former research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. Hanson is known for his work on idea futures and markets, and he was involved in the creation of the Foresight Institute's Foresight Exchange and DARPA's FutureMAP project. He invented market scoring rules like LMSR ( Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) used by prediction markets such as Consensus Point (where Hanson is Chief Scientist), and has conducted research on signalling. He also proposed the Great Filter hypothesis. Background Hanson received a BS in physics from the University of California, Irvine in 1981, an MS in physics and an MA in Conceptual Foundations of Science from the University of Chicago in 1984, and a PhD in social science from Caltech in 1997 for his thesis titled ''Four puzzles in information and politics: Product bans, i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Metaculus
Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. Reward system Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users. Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community. Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress. The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community. In January 2020, Metaculus introduced the Bentham Prize, which awards bi-weekly monetary prizes of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Kalshi
Kalshi Inc. is an American financial exchange and prediction market based in Lower Manhattan, New York City, offering event contracts. Launched in July 2021, it offers a platform where both retail and institutional traders can place trades on various future events, including economic indicators, weather patterns, awards, as well as political and legislative outcomes. The platform enables users to trade on yes-or-no questions, with contracts priced based on the market's estimated probability of an event occurring. The exchange provides contracts that pay out $1 for correct selections. In October 2024, Kalshi received approval to reintroduce election markets, allowing users to wager on political outcomes, such as congressional control and presidential elections. History Founded in 2018, Kalshi was established by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. The idea for the company emerged during their tenure as financial analysts, where they identified challenges faced by investors a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Polymarket
Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where investors can place bets on various future events, including economic indicators, weather patterns, awards, as well as political and legislative outcomes. Participants can deposit USDC cryptocurrency through the Polygon blockchain network and trade shares that represent the likelihood of specific outcomes occurring in the future. Polymarket has blocked access to US customers since 2022, following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused the company of running an unregistered derivatives-trading platform. History Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket is a prediction market that allows users to gain/lose on the outcome of world events. In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and received a cease and desist order for re ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Uniswap
Uniswap is a Decentralization, decentralized cryptocurrency exchange that uses a set of automated smart contracts to create liquidity pools for the execution of trades. It is an open source project and falls into the category of a DeFi product (Decentralized finance) because it uses smart contracts to facilitate trades instead of a Centralisation, centralized exchange. The protocol facilitates automated transactions between Cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency tokens on the Ethereum blockchain through the use of smart contracts. , Uniswap is estimated to be the second largest decentralized exchange and the seventh-largest cryptocurrency exchange overall by daily Volume (finance), trading volume. History Uniswap was created on November 2, 2018 by Hayden Adams, a former mechanical engineer at Siemens. Adams is the Founder CEO, founder and Chief executive officer, CEO of Uniswap Labs, the company responsible for the development of the Uniswap Protocol, a Decentralization, decentralized ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Destiny (streamer)
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (born December 12, 1988), known online as Destiny, is an American live streamer and political commentator. He was among the first people to stream video games online full-time. Since 2016, he has streamed political debates with other online personalities, in which he advocates for liberal and social democratic policies. Early life and education Steven Kenneth Bonnell II was born in Omaha, Nebraska. He was raised in a conservative Catholic home, and he attended Creighton Preparatory School, a private Jesuit high school for boys. When he was a pre-teen, his mother's home daycare business collapsed, and his family's home was foreclosed. A few years later his parents moved to take care of an aging relative, after which he lived with his grandmother until he was 18. In 2007, Bonnell enrolled at the University of Nebraska Omaha, where he studied music while working as a restaurant manager at a casino, mostly at night. Struggling to juggle both his educa ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky ( ; born September 11, 1979) is an American artificial intelligence researcher and writer on decision theory and ethics, best known for popularizing ideas related to friendly artificial intelligence. He is the founder of and a research fellow at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), a private research nonprofit based in Berkeley, California. His work on the prospect of a runaway intelligence explosion influenced philosopher Nick Bostrom's 2014 book '' Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies''. Work in artificial intelligence safety Goal learning and incentives in software systems Yudkowsky's views on the safety challenges future generations of AI systems pose are discussed in Stuart Russell's and Peter Norvig's undergraduate textbook '' Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach''. Noting the difficulty of formally specifying general-purpose goals by hand, Russell and Norvig cite Yudkowsky's proposal that autonomous and adaptive systems ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Nate Silver
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, political analyst, author, sports gambler, and poker player who Sabermetrics, analyzes baseball, basketball and Psephology, elections. He is the founder of ''FiveThirtyEight'' and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News (United States), ABC News until May 2023. Since departing ''FiveThirtyEight'', Silver has been publishing in his online newsletter ''Silver Bulletin'' and serves as an advisor to Polymarket. Silver was named one of Time 100, the world's 100 most influential people by ''Time (magazine), Time'' in 2009 after his election forecasting model correctly predicted the outcomes in 49 of 50 states in the 2008 United States presidential election, 2008 U.S. presidential election. His subsequent models predicted the outcome of the 2012 United States presidential election, 2012 and 2020 United States presidential election, 2020 presidential elec ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Vox (website)
''Vox'' () is an American news and opinion website owned by Vox Media. The website was founded in April 2014 by Ezra Klein, Matt Yglesias, and Melissa Bell (journalist), Melissa Bell, and is noted for its concept of explanatory journalism. Vox's media presence also includes a YouTube channel, several podcasts, and a show presented on Netflix. ''Vox'' has been described as left-leaning and Liberalism in the United States, liberal. History Prior to founding ''Vox'', Ezra Klein worked for ''The Washington Post'' as the head of Wonkblog, a public policy blog. When Klein attempted to launch a new site using funding from the newspaper's editors, his proposal was turned down and Klein subsequently left ''The Washington Post'' for a position with Vox Media, another communications company, in January 2014. ''The New York Times'' David Carr (journalist), David Carr associated Klein's exit for ''Vox'' with other "big-name journalists" leaving newspapers for digital start-ups, such as ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Berkeley, California
Berkeley ( ) is a city on the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay in northern Alameda County, California, United States. It is named after the 18th-century Anglo-Irish bishop and philosopher George Berkeley. It borders the cities of Oakland, California, Oakland and Emeryville, California, Emeryville to the south and the city of Albany, California, Albany and the Unincorporated area, unincorporated community of Kensington, California, Kensington to the north. Its eastern border with Contra Costa County, California, Contra Costa County generally follows the ridge of the Berkeley Hills. The 2020 United States census, 2020 census recorded a population of 124,321. Berkeley is home to the oldest campus in the University of California, the University of California, Berkeley, and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which is managed and operated by the university. It also has the Graduate Theological Union, one of the largest religious studies institutions in the world. Berkeley is ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Slate Star Codex
''Astral Codex Ten'' (ACX), formerly ''Slate Star Codex'' (SSC), is a blog focused on science, medicine (especially psychiatry), philosophy, politics, and futurism. The blog is written by Scott Alexander Siskind, a San Francisco Bay Area psychiatrist, under the pen name Scott Alexander. ''Slate Star Codex'' was launched in 2013 and was discontinued on June 23, 2020. , the blog is partially back online, with the content restored but commenting disabled. The successor blog, ''Astral Codex Ten'', was launched on January 21, 2021. Alexander also blogged at the rationalist community blog ''LessWrong'', and wrote a fiction book in blog format named ''Unsong''. A revised version of ''Unsong'' was published on May 24, 2024. Content The site was a primary venue of the rationalist community and also attracted wider audiences. The ''New Statesman'' characterizes it as "a nexus for the rationalist community and others who seek to apply reason to debates about situations, ideas, and mor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
