Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online
prediction market
Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded mar ...
platform.
Users engage in competitive forecasting using
play money called 'Mana'. Topics on Manifold have included the
2024 United States presidential election
United States presidential election, Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 5, 2024. The Republican Party (United States), Republican Party's Ticket (election), ticket—Donald Trump, who was the 45th president of ...
and the Oscars.
Manifold used to support real money betting using 'sweepcash', but this was sunset on March 28 2025.
History
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization.
Manifold received seed funding from the
Astral Codex Ten grant program.
It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the
FTX Future Fund, and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.
In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in
Berkeley, California
Berkeley ( ) is a city on the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay in northern Alameda County, California, United States. It is named after the 18th-century Anglo-Irish bishop and philosopher George Berkeley. It borders the cities of Oakland, Cali ...
. Attendees included
Nate Silver
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, political analyst, author, sports gambler, and poker player who Sabermetrics, analyzes baseball, basketball and Psephology, elections. He is the founder of ''FiveThirty ...
,
Robin Hanson
Robin Dale Hanson (born August 28, 1959) is an American economist and author. He is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a former research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. Hanson is k ...
,
Richard Hanania,
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky ( ; born September 11, 1979) is an American artificial intelligence researcher and writer on decision theory and ethics, best known for popularizing ideas related to friendly artificial intelligence. He is the founder of and ...
, Robert Miles, and
Destiny
Destiny, sometimes also called fate (), is a predetermined course of events. It may be conceived as a predetermined future, whether in general or of an individual.
Fate
Although often used interchangeably, the words ''fate'' and ''destiny'' ...
.
The conference was hosted again in 2024.
Market structure
The website uses a play money currency called Mana. Markets use a version of the
Uniswap
Uniswap is a Decentralization, decentralized cryptocurrency exchange that uses a set of automated smart contracts to create liquidity pools for the execution of trades. It is an open source project and falls into the category of a DeFi product ( ...
automated market maker, known as "maniswap". Formerly, Manifold supported Sweepcash which could be redeemed for real world money for a 5% fee, or cashed out to a charity of the user's choice for no fee.
[https://docs.manifold.markets/sweepstakes] One unit of Sweepcash was equivalent to $1 USD.
See also
*
Polymarket
Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where investors can place bets on various future events, including economic indicators, weathe ...
*
Kalshi
Kalshi Inc. is an American financial exchange and prediction market based in Lower Manhattan, New York City, offering event contracts. Launched in July 2021, it offers a platform where both retail and institutional traders can place trades on va ...
*
Metaculus
*
PredictIt
PredictIt is a New Zealand-based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington with support from Aristotle, Inc. The company's office is lo ...
References
{{Reflist, 30em
External links
Manifold websiteManifold GitHub organization
(source code)
Prediction markets