Metaculus is an American
reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.
[The power of prediction markets](_blank)
in ''Nature
Nature, in the broadest sense, is the physics, physical world or universe. "Nature" can refer to the phenomenon, phenomena of the physical world, and also to life in general. The study of nature is a large, if not the only, part of science. ...
'', published December 17th, 2018 retrieved March 16, 2019
Reward system
Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions.
Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users.
[Metaculus: a prediction website with an eye on science and technology](_blank)
in ''YaleNews
Yale University is a private research university in New Haven, Connecticut. Established in 1701 as the Collegiate School, it is the third-oldest institution of higher education in the United States and among the most prestigious in the worl ...
'' published November 2, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019 Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community.
Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress.
The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community.
In January 2020, Metaculus introduced the Bentham Prize, which awards bi-weekly monetary prizes of $300, $200 and $100 to the first, second and third most valuable user contributions. The following month, Metaculus introduced the
Li Wenliang prize, which awards a number of different monetary prizes to questions, forecasts and analyses related to the
COVID-19 outbreak
The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identified ...
.
History
Data scientist Max Wainwright and physicists Greg Laughlin and Anthony Aguirre launched the site in 2015.
In June 2017, the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user's predictions.
[
]
The Metaculus Prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the
Brier
Briar, Briars, Brier, or Briers may refer to:
* Briar, or brier, common name for a number of unrelated thorny plants that form thicket
People
* Brier (surname)
* Briers, a surname
* Briars (surname)
Places
* Briar, Missouri, U.S.
* Bri ...
or
Log
Log most often refers to:
* Trunk (botany), the stem and main wooden axis of a tree, called logs when cut
** Logging, cutting down trees for logs
** Firewood, logs used for fuel
** Lumber or timber, converted from wood logs
* Logarithm, in mathe ...
scoring rules.
In 2021, Metaculus received a
Effective altruism
Effective altruism is a philosophical and social movement that advocates "using evidence and reason to figure out how to benefit others as much as possible, and taking action on that basis". People who pursue the goals of effective altruism, c ...
infrastructure fund grant worth $300k. In 2022, Metaculus received a $5.5m grant from
Open Philanthropy
Open Philanthropy is a research and grantmaking foundation that makes grants based on the doctrine of effective altruism. It was founded as a partnership between GiveWell and Good Ventures. Its current co-chief executive officers are Holden ...
. In October 2022, Metaculus received $20k funding from the
FTX
FTX Trading Ltd., commonly known as FTX (short for "Futures Exchange") is a bankrupt company that formerly operated a cryptocurrency exchange and crypto hedge fund. The exchange was founded in 2019 and, at its peak in July 2021, had over one mi ...
future fund, 3 weeks before the
bankruptcy of FTX
The bankruptcy of FTX is the ongoing liquidation of Bahamas-based cryptocurrency exchange FTX, beginning in November 2022. The collapse of FTX, caused by a liquidity crisis of the company's token, FTT, served as the impetus for its bankruptcy. P ...
.
See also
*
PredictIt
PredictIt is a New Zealand-based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington with support from Aristotle, Inc. The company's office is loc ...
*
Prediction market
*
Futarchy
Futarchy is a form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which elected officials define measures of national wellbeing, and prediction markets are used to determine which policies will have the most positive effect.
It was named b ...
References
{{Reflist, 30em
External links
Metaculus website
Predictive analytics
Prediction markets
Organizations associated with effective altruism