The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the

2016 United States presidential election United States presidential election, Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 8, 2016. The Republican Party (United States), Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor, Indiana governor Mike P ...

in which all 50 states plus the

District of Columbia Washington, D.C., formally the District of Columbia and commonly known as Washington or D.C., is the capital city and Federal district of the United States, federal district of the United States. The city is on the Potomac River, across from ...

participated.

Iowa Iowa ( ) is a U.S. state, state in the upper Midwestern United States, Midwestern region of the United States. It borders the Mississippi River to the east and the Missouri River and Big Sioux River to the west; Wisconsin to the northeast, Ill ...

voters chose electors to represent them in the

Electoral College An electoral college is a body whose task is to elect a candidate to a particular office. It is mostly used in the political context for a constitutional body that appoints the head of state or government, and sometimes the upper parliament ...

via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman

Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he served as the 45 ...

, and his running mate Indiana Governor

Mike Pence Michael Richard Pence (born June 7, 1959) is an American politician and lawyer who served as the 48th vice president of the United States from 2017 to 2021 under President Donald Trump. A member of the Republican Party (United States), Repub ...

against the Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State

Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, lawyer and diplomat. She was the 67th United States secretary of state in the administration of Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, a U.S. senator represent ...

, and her running mate Virginia

Senator A senate is a deliberative assembly, often the upper house or Legislative chamber, chamber of a bicameral legislature. The name comes from the Ancient Rome, ancient Roman Senate (Latin: ''Senatus''), so-called as an assembly of the senior ...

Tim Kaine Timothy Michael Kaine ( ; born February 26, 1958) is an American lawyer and politician serving as the Seniority in the United States Senate, junior United States senator from Virginia since 2013. A member of the Democratic Party (United States ...

. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College. Trump won the state with 51.15% of the vote, while Clinton received 41.74% (a margin of 9.41%). Clinton's performance in Iowa was the worst performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since

1980 Events January * January 4 – U.S. President Jimmy Carter proclaims a United States grain embargo against the Soviet Union, grain embargo against the USSR with the support of the European Commission. * January 6 – Global Positioning Sys ...

. Trump, besides being the first Republican to carry the state since

George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician and businessman who was the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Bush family and the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he i ...

2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and Its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 60 ...

, won over a dozen counties that had not voted Republican since

Ronald Reagan Ronald Wilson Reagan (February 6, 1911 – June 5, 2004) was an American politician and actor who served as the 40th president of the United States from 1981 to 1989. He was a member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party a ...

was on the ticket; won two counties that had last voted Republican in

Richard Nixon Richard Milhous Nixon (January 9, 1913April 22, 1994) was the 37th president of the United States, serving from 1969 until Resignation of Richard Nixon, his resignation in 1974. A member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican ...

's landslide victory in

1972 Within the context of Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) it was the longest year ever, as two leap seconds were added during this 366-day year, an event which has not since been repeated. (If its start and end are defined using Solar time, ...

; and also won

Dubuque County Dubuque County is a County (United States), county located in the U.S. state of Iowa. As of the 2020 United States census, 2020 census, the population was 99,266, making it the eighth-most populous county in Iowa. The county seat is Dubuque, Io ...

, which had last voted Republican in

1956 Events January * January 1 – The Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, Anglo-Egyptian Condominium ends in Sudan after 57 years. * January 8 – Operation Auca: Five U.S. evangelical Christian Missionary, missionaries, Nate Saint, Roger Youderian, E ...

. Trump carried Iowa by the largest margin of any Republican candidate since Reagan in 1980, and he was the first Republican to win an outright majority of the state's vote since Reagan's historic 1984 landslide. Trump enjoyed the support of working-class whites in the agricultural industry, as well as the endorsement of Iowa's GOP establishment.

Caucuses

The incumbent

President of the United States The president of the United States (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president directs the Federal government of the United States#Executive branch, executive branch of the Federal government of t ...

Barack Obama Barack Hussein Obama II (born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who was the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the first African American president in American history. O ...

, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected to the presidency in

2008 2008 was designated as: *International Year of Languages *International Year of Planet Earth *International Year of the Potato *International Year of Sanitation The Great Recession, a worldwide recession which began in 2007, continued throu ...

, running with U.S. Senator

Joe Biden Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (born November 20, 1942) is an American politician who was the 46th president of the United States from 2021 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, he served as the 47th vice p ...

of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator

John McCain John Sidney McCain III (August 29, 1936 – August 25, 2018) was an American statesman and United States Navy, naval officer who represented the Arizona, state of Arizona in United States Congress, Congress for over 35 years, first as ...

of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote, Obama succeeded two-term Republican President

, the former

Governor of Texas The governor of Texas is the head of state of the U.S. state of Texas. The governor is the head of the executive branch of the government of Texas and is the commander-in-chief of the Texas Military Forces. Established in the Constit ...

. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor

Mitt Romney Willard Mitt Romney (born March 12, 1947) is an American businessman and retired politician. He served as a United States Senate, United States senator from Utah from 2019 to 2025 and as the 70th governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007 ...

with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes. Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the

RealClearPolitics RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an American political news website and polling data aggregator. It was founded in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan. It features selected polit ...

poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year. Analyst Nate Cohn noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa. President Obama was not eligible to be re-elected after having served two terms. Obama's running-mate and two-term

Vice President A vice president or vice-president, also director in British English, is an officer in government or business who is below the president (chief executive officer) in rank. It can also refer to executive vice presidents, signifying that the vi ...

Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.

Democratic caucuses

Procedure

There is no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to

county A county () is a geographic region of a country used for administrative or other purposesL. Brookes (ed.) '' Chambers Dictionary''. Edinburgh: Chambers Harrap Publishers Ltd, 2005. in some nations. The term is derived from the Old French denoti ...

conventions supporting

Martin O'Malley Martin Joseph O'Malley (born January 18, 1963) is an American politician who served as the 17th commissioner of the Social Security Administration from 2023 to 2024. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, he was th ...

, and

Bernie Sanders Bernard Sanders (born September8, 1941) is an American politician and activist who is the Seniority in the United States Senate, senior United States Senate, United States senator from the state of Vermont. He is the longest-serving independ ...

. The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates.

County Conventions

In early March, the delegates chosen in the Caucuses met chose delegates to the Congressional District Conventions.

Republican caucuses

General election

Polling

Up until late August 2016, the election was close, with both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton winning polls but neither taking a serious lead. In September 2016, Trump gained momentum, by winning a poll 44% to 39% in early September and then winning 3 more polls in a row by margins larger than 5%. From late September 2016 until election day, Trump won every poll but one. The final poll average showed Donald Trump ahead 44% to 41%, with many undecided voters that mostly swung to Donald Trump on election night. The latest poll also showed Trump ahead by 46% to 39%.

Predictions

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican * Allamakee (largest city: Waukon) * Boone (largest city: Boone) * Bremer (largest city: Waverly) * Buchanan (largest city:

Independence Independence is a condition of a nation, country, or state, in which residents and population, or some portion thereof, exercise self-government, and usually sovereignty, over its territory. The opposite of independence is the status of ...

) * Cedar (largest city:

Tipton Tipton is an industrial town in the metropolitan borough of Sandwell, in the county of the West Midlands (county), West Midlands, England. It had a population of 38,777 at the 2011 UK Census. It is located northwest of Birmingham and southeas ...

) * Cerro Gordo (largest city: Mason City) *

Chickasaw The Chickasaw ( ) are an Indigenous people of the Southeastern Woodlands, United States. Their traditional territory was in northern Mississippi, northwestern and northern Alabama, western Tennessee and southwestern Kentucky. Their language is ...

(largest city: New Hampton) * Clarke (largest city:

Osceola Osceola (1804 – January 30, 1838, Vsse Yvholv in Muscogee language, Creek, also spelled Asi-yahola), named Billy Powell at birth, was an influential leader of the Seminole people in Florida. His mother was Muscogee, and his great-grandfa ...

) * Clayton (largest city: Guttenberg) * Clinton (largest city: Clinton) *

Des Moines Des Moines is the List of capitals in the United States, capital and List of cities in Iowa, most populous city in the U.S. state of Iowa. It is the county seat of Polk County, Iowa, Polk County with parts extending into Warren County, Iowa, Wa ...

(largest city: Burlington) *

Dubuque Dubuque (, ) is a city in Dubuque County, Iowa, United States, and its county seat. The population was 59,667 at the 2020 United States census. The city lies along the Mississippi River at the junction of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, a region ...

(largest city:

) * Fayette (largest city:

Oelwein Oelwein is a city in Fayette County, Iowa, United States. The population was 5,920 at the time of the 2020 census, a decrease of 11.5% from the 2000 census. The largest community in Fayette County, it is located at the junction of State Highways ...

) * Floyd (largest city: Charles City) *

Howard Howard is a masculine given name derived from the English surname Howard. ''The Oxford Dictionary of English Christian Names'' notes that "the use of this surname as a christian name is quite recent and there seems to be no particular reason for ...

(largest city: Cresco) *

Jackson Jackson may refer to: Places Australia * Jackson, Queensland, a town in the Maranoa Region * Jackson North, Queensland, a locality in the Maranoa Region * Jackson South, Queensland, a locality in the Maranoa Region * Jackson oil field in Durham, ...

(largest city: Maquoketa) *

Jasper Jasper, an aggregate of microgranular quartz and/or cryptocrystalline chalcedony and other mineral phases, is an opaque, impure variety of silica, usually red, yellow, brown or green in color; and rarely blue. The common red color is due to ...

(largest city: Newton) * Jefferson (largest city: Fairfield) * Jones (largest city: Anamosa) *

Lee Lee may refer to: Arts and entertainment * ''Lee'' (2007 film), Tamil-language sports action film * ''Lee'' (2017 film), Kannada-language action film * ''Lee'' (2023 film), biographical drama about Lee Miller, American photojournalist * ''L ...

(largest city:

Fort Madison Fort Madison is a city in and a county seat of Lee County, Iowa, Lee County, Iowa, United States along with Keokuk, Iowa, Keokuk. Of Iowa's 99 counties, Lee County is the only one with two county seats. The population was 10,270 at the time of ...

) * Louisa (largest city: Wapello) *

Marshall Marshall may refer to: Places Australia *Marshall, Victoria, a suburb of Geelong, Victoria ** Marshall railway station Canada * Marshall, Saskatchewan * The Marshall, a mountain in British Columbia Liberia * Marshall, Liberia Marshall Is ...

(largest city: Marshalltown) * Mitchell (largest city: Osage) * Muscatine (largest city: Muscatine) * Poweshiek (largest city: Grinnell) * Tama (largest city: Tama) * Union (largest city: Creston) * Wapello (largest city: Ottumwa) * Webster (largest city: Fort Dodge) * Winneshiek (largest city: Decorah) * Woodbury (largest city:

Sioux City Sioux City () is a city in Woodbury and Plymouth counties in the U.S. state of Iowa. The population was 85,797 in the 2020 census, making it the fourth-most populous city in Iowa. The county seat of Woodbury County, Sioux City is the primar ...

) * Worth (largest city: Northwood)

By congressional district

Trump won all four of the congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2d801234-32b3-4a96-a64c-82e27c460716

Analysis

The difference of 9.4% points was the largest winning margin for Trump in a state that had voted for

2012 2012 was designated as: *International Year of Cooperatives *International Year of Sustainable Energy for All Events January *January 4 – The Cicada 3301 internet hunt begins. * January 12 – Peaceful protests begin in the R ...

. This was also the first time since

1976 Events January * January 2 – The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights enters into force. * January 5 – The Pol Pot regime proclaims a new constitution for Democratic Kampuchea. * January 18 – Full diplomatic ...

that Iowa voted to the right of Texas, which Trump won in this election by 8.99 points. Trump carried 93 out of 99 counties, the most for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since 1980, and he flipped 32 counties won by Obama in 2012, the most out of any state. This was the first time since 1988 in which Iowa did not go for the winner of the popular vote. It was also the first time since

(and only the second since

1984 Events January * January 1 – The Bornean Sultanate of Brunei gains full independence from the United Kingdom, having become a British protectorate in 1888. * January 7 – Brunei becomes the sixth member of the Association of Southeas ...

) that Iowa would vote for a Republican candidate. This is also the first election since 1980 in which a non-incumbent Republican won the state.

References

External links

RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process

Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
{{U.S. presidential primaries

2016 2016 was designated as: * International Year of Pulses by the sixty-eighth session of the United Nations General Assembly. * International Year of Global Understanding (IYGU) by the International Council for Science (ICSU), the Internationa ...

Presidential