
In
statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a s ...
and
control theory
Control theory is a field of control engineering and applied mathematics that deals with the control system, control of dynamical systems in engineered processes and machines. The objective is to develop a model or algorithm governing the applic ...
, Kalman filtering (also known as linear quadratic estimation) is an
algorithm
In mathematics and computer science, an algorithm () is a finite sequence of Rigour#Mathematics, mathematically rigorous instructions, typically used to solve a class of specific Computational problem, problems or to perform a computation. Algo ...
that uses a series of measurements observed over time, including
statistical noise
In statistics, the fraction of variance unexplained (FVU) in the context of a regression task is the fraction of variance of the regressand (dependent variable) ''Y'' which cannot be explained, i.e., which is not correctly predicted, by the ex ...
and other inaccuracies, to produce estimates of unknown variables that tend to be more accurate than those based on a single measurement, by estimating a
joint probability distribution
A joint or articulation (or articular surface) is the connection made between bones, ossicles, or other hard structures in the body which link an animal's skeletal system into a functional whole.Saladin, Ken. Anatomy & Physiology. 7th ed. McGraw- ...
over the variables for each time-step. The filter is constructed as a mean squared error minimiser, but an alternative derivation of the filter is also provided showing how the filter relates to maximum likelihood statistics. The filter is named after
Rudolf E. Kálmán.
Kalman filtering has numerous technological applications. A common application is for
guidance, navigation, and control of vehicles, particularly aircraft, spacecraft and ships
positioned dynamically.
Furthermore, Kalman filtering is much applied in
time series
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. ...
analysis tasks such as
signal processing
Signal processing is an electrical engineering subfield that focuses on analyzing, modifying and synthesizing ''signals'', such as audio signal processing, sound, image processing, images, Scalar potential, potential fields, Seismic tomograph ...
and
econometrics
Econometrics is an application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. M. Hashem Pesaran (1987). "Econometrics", '' The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics'', v. 2, p. 8 p. 8 ...
. Kalman filtering is also important for robotic
motion planning
Motion planning, also path planning (also known as the navigation problem or the piano mover's problem) is a computational problem to find a sequence of valid configurations that moves the object from the source to destination. The term is used ...
and control, and can be used for
trajectory optimization
Trajectory optimization is the process of designing a trajectory that minimizes (or maximizes) some measure of performance while satisfying a set of constraints. Generally speaking, trajectory optimization is a technique for computing an open-loop ...
. Kalman filtering also works for modeling the
central nervous system
The central nervous system (CNS) is the part of the nervous system consisting primarily of the brain, spinal cord and retina. The CNS is so named because the brain integrates the received information and coordinates and influences the activity o ...
's control of movement. Due to the time delay between issuing motor commands and receiving
sensory feedback
Feedback occurs when outputs of a system are routed back as inputs as part of a Signal chain (signal processing chain), chain of Causality, cause and effect that forms a circuit or loop. The system can then be said to ''feed back'' into itself ...
, the use of Kalman filters provides a realistic model for making estimates of the current state of a motor system and issuing updated commands.
The algorithm works via a two-phase process: a prediction phase and an update phase. In the prediction phase, the Kalman filter produces estimates of the current
state variable
A state variable is one of the set of Variable (mathematics), variables that are used to describe the mathematical "state" of a dynamical system. Intuitively, the state of a system describes enough about the system to determine its future behavi ...
s, including their uncertainties. Once the outcome of the next measurement (necessarily corrupted with some error, including random noise) is observed, these estimates are updated using a
weighted average
The weighted arithmetic mean is similar to an ordinary arithmetic mean (the most common type of average), except that instead of each of the data points contributing equally to the final average, some data points contribute more than others. The ...
, with more weight given to estimates with greater certainty. The algorithm is
recursive
Recursion occurs when the definition of a concept or process depends on a simpler or previous version of itself. Recursion is used in a variety of disciplines ranging from linguistics to logic. The most common application of recursion is in m ...
. It can operate in
real time, using only the present input measurements and the state calculated previously and its uncertainty matrix; no additional past information is required.
Optimality of Kalman filtering assumes that errors have a
normal (Gaussian) distribution. In the words of
Rudolf E. Kálmán: "The following assumptions are made about random processes: Physical random phenomena may be thought of as due to primary random sources exciting dynamic systems. The primary sources are assumed to be independent gaussian random processes with zero mean; the dynamic systems will be linear." Regardless of Gaussianity, however, if the process and measurement covariances are known, then the Kalman filter is the best possible ''
linear
In mathematics, the term ''linear'' is used in two distinct senses for two different properties:
* linearity of a '' function'' (or '' mapping'');
* linearity of a '' polynomial''.
An example of a linear function is the function defined by f(x) ...
'' estimator in the
minimum mean-square-error sense, although there may be better nonlinear estimators. It is a common misconception (perpetuated in the literature) that the Kalman filter cannot be rigorously applied unless all noise processes are assumed to be Gaussian.
Extensions and
generalization
A generalization is a form of abstraction whereby common properties of specific instances are formulated as general concepts or claims. Generalizations posit the existence of a domain or set of elements, as well as one or more common characteri ...
s of the method have also been developed, such as the
extended Kalman filter
In estimation theory, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) is the nonlinear version of the Kalman filter which linearizes about an estimate of the current mean and covariance. In the case of well defined transition models, the EKF has been considered t ...
and the
unscented Kalman filter
In statistics and control theory, Kalman filtering (also known as linear quadratic estimation) is an algorithm that uses a series of measurements observed over time, including statistical noise and other inaccuracies, to produce estimates of un ...
which work on
nonlinear system
In mathematics and science, a nonlinear system (or a non-linear system) is a system in which the change of the output is not proportional to the change of the input. Nonlinear problems are of interest to engineers, biologists, physicists, mathem ...
s. The basis is a
hidden Markov model
A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a Markov model in which the observations are dependent on a latent (or ''hidden'') Markov process (referred to as X). An HMM requires that there be an observable process Y whose outcomes depend on the outcomes of X ...
such that the
state space
In computer science, a state space is a discrete space representing the set of all possible configurations of a system. It is a useful abstraction for reasoning about the behavior of a given system and is widely used in the fields of artificial ...
of the
latent variable
In statistics, latent variables (from Latin: present participle of ) are variables that can only be inferred indirectly through a mathematical model from other observable variables that can be directly observed or measured. Such '' latent va ...
s is
continuous
Continuity or continuous may refer to:
Mathematics
* Continuity (mathematics), the opposing concept to discreteness; common examples include
** Continuous probability distribution or random variable in probability and statistics
** Continuous ...
and all latent and observed variables have Gaussian distributions. Kalman filtering has been used successfully in
multi-sensor fusion, and distributed
sensor networks
Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) refer to networks of spatially dispersed and dedicated sensors that monitor and record the physical conditions of the environment and forward the collected data to a central location. WSNs can measure environmental ...
to develop distributed or
consensus Kalman filtering.
History
The filtering method is named for Hungarian
émigré
An ''émigré'' () is a person who has emigrated, often with a connotation of political or social exile or self-exile. The word is the past participle of the French verb ''émigrer'' meaning "to emigrate".
French Huguenots
Many French Hugueno ...
Rudolf E. Kálmán, although
Thorvald Nicolai Thiele and
Peter Swerling developed a similar algorithm earlier. Richard S. Bucy of the
Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory
The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (or simply Applied Physics Laboratory, or APL) is a not-for-profit university-affiliated research center (UARC) in Howard County, Maryland. It is affiliated with Johns Hopkins University ...
contributed to the theory, causing it to be known sometimes as Kalman–Bucy filtering. Kalman was inspired to derive the Kalman filter by applying state variables to the
Wiener filtering problem.
Stanley F. Schmidt is generally credited with developing the first implementation of a Kalman filter. He realized that the filter could be divided into two distinct parts, with one part for time periods between sensor outputs and another part for incorporating measurements. It was during a visit by Kálmán to the
NASA Ames Research Center
The Ames Research Center (ARC), also known as NASA Ames, is a major NASA research center at Moffett Federal Airfield in California's Silicon Valley. It was founded in 1939 as the second National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA) laborat ...
that Schmidt saw the applicability of Kálmán's ideas to the nonlinear problem of trajectory estimation for the
Apollo program
The Apollo program, also known as Project Apollo, was the United States human spaceflight program led by NASA, which Moon landing, landed the first humans on the Moon in 1969. Apollo followed Project Mercury that put the first Americans in sp ...
resulting in its incorporation in the
Apollo navigation computer.
This digital filter is sometimes termed the ''Stratonovich–Kalman–Bucy filter'' because it is a special case of a more general, nonlinear filter developed by the
Soviet
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (USSR), commonly known as the Soviet Union, was a List of former transcontinental countries#Since 1700, transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 until Dissolution of the Soviet ...
mathematician
A mathematician is someone who uses an extensive knowledge of mathematics in their work, typically to solve mathematical problems. Mathematicians are concerned with numbers, data, quantity, mathematical structure, structure, space, Mathematica ...
Ruslan Stratonovich
Ruslan Leont'evich Stratonovich () was a Russian physicist, engineer, and probabilist and one of the founders of the theory of stochastic differential equations.
Biography
Ruslan Stratonovich was born on 31 May 1930 in Moscow. He studied from 1 ...
. In fact, some of the special case linear filter's equations appeared in papers by Stratonovich that were published before the summer of 1961, when Kalman met with Stratonovich during a conference in Moscow.
This Kalman filtering was first described and developed partially in technical papers by Swerling (1958), Kalman (1960) and Kalman and Bucy (1961).
Kalman filters have been vital in the implementation of the navigation systems of
U.S. Navy
The United States Navy (USN) is the maritime service branch of the United States Department of Defense. It is the world's most powerful navy with the largest displacement, at 4.5 million tons in 2021. It has the world's largest aircraft ...
nuclear
ballistic missile submarine
A ballistic missile submarine is a submarine capable of deploying submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) with nuclear warheads. These submarines became a major weapon system in the Cold War because of their nuclear deterrence capabi ...
s, and in the guidance and navigation systems of cruise missiles such as the U.S. Navy's
Tomahawk missile and the
U.S. Air Force
The United States Air Force (USAF) is the air service branch of the United States Department of Defense. It is one of the six United States Armed Forces and one of the eight uniformed services of the United States. Tracing its origins to 1 ...
's
Air Launched Cruise Missile. They are also used in the guidance and navigation systems of
reusable launch vehicle
A reusable launch vehicle has parts that can be recovered and reflown, while carrying payloads from the surface to outer space. Rocket stages are the most common launch vehicle parts aimed for reuse. Smaller parts such as fairings, booster ...
s and the
attitude control
Spacecraft attitude control is the process of controlling the orientation of a spacecraft (vehicle or satellite) with respect to an inertial frame of reference or another entity such as the celestial sphere, certain fields, and nearby objects, ...
and navigation systems of spacecraft which dock at the
International Space Station
The International Space Station (ISS) is a large space station that was Assembly of the International Space Station, assembled and is maintained in low Earth orbit by a collaboration of five space agencies and their contractors: NASA (United ...
.
Overview of the calculation
Kalman filtering uses a system's dynamic model (e.g., physical laws of motion), known control inputs to that system, and multiple sequential measurements (such as from sensors) to form an estimate of the system's varying quantities (its
state
State most commonly refers to:
* State (polity), a centralized political organization that regulates law and society within a territory
**Sovereign state, a sovereign polity in international law, commonly referred to as a country
**Nation state, a ...
) that is better than the estimate obtained by using only one measurement alone. As such, it is a common
sensor fusion
Sensor fusion is a process of combining sensor data or data derived from disparate sources so that the resulting information has less uncertainty than would be possible if these sources were used individually. For instance, one could potentially o ...
and
data fusion algorithm.
Noisy sensor data, approximations in the equations that describe the system evolution, and external factors that are not accounted for, all limit how well it is possible to determine the system's state. The Kalman filter deals effectively with the uncertainty due to noisy sensor data and, to some extent, with random external factors. The Kalman filter produces an estimate of the state of the system as an average of the system's predicted state and of the new measurement using a
weighted average
The weighted arithmetic mean is similar to an ordinary arithmetic mean (the most common type of average), except that instead of each of the data points contributing equally to the final average, some data points contribute more than others. The ...
. The purpose of the weights is that values with better (i.e., smaller) estimated uncertainty are "trusted" more. The weights are calculated from the
covariance
In probability theory and statistics, covariance is a measure of the joint variability of two random variables.
The sign of the covariance, therefore, shows the tendency in the linear relationship between the variables. If greater values of one ...
, a measure of the estimated uncertainty of the prediction of the system's state. The result of the weighted average is a new state estimate that lies between the predicted and measured state, and has a better estimated uncertainty than either alone. This process is repeated at every time step, with the new estimate and its covariance informing the prediction used in the following iteration. This means that Kalman filter works
recursively and requires only the last "best guess", rather than the entire history, of a system's state to calculate a new state.
The measurements' certainty-grading and current-state estimate are important considerations. It is common to discuss the filter's response in terms of the Kalman filter's ''
gain''. The Kalman gain is the weight given to the measurements and current-state estimate, and can be "tuned" to achieve a particular performance. With a high gain, the filter places more weight on the most recent measurements, and thus conforms to them more responsively. With a low gain, the filter conforms to the model predictions more closely. At the extremes, a high gain (close to one) will result in a more jumpy estimated trajectory, while a low gain (close to zero) will smooth out noise but decrease the responsiveness.
When performing the actual calculations for the filter (as discussed below), the state estimate and covariances are coded into
matrices
Matrix (: matrices or matrixes) or MATRIX may refer to:
Science and mathematics
* Matrix (mathematics), a rectangular array of numbers, symbols or expressions
* Matrix (logic), part of a formula in prenex normal form
* Matrix (biology), the ...
because of the multiple dimensions involved in a single set of calculations. This allows for a representation of linear relationships between different state variables (such as position, velocity, and acceleration) in any of the transition models or covariances.
Example application
As an example application, consider the problem of determining the precise location of a truck. The truck can be equipped with a
GPS
The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a satellite-based hyperbolic navigation system owned by the United States Space Force and operated by Mission Delta 31. It is one of the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) that provide geol ...
unit that provides an estimate of the position within a few meters. The GPS estimate is likely to be noisy; readings 'jump around' rapidly, though remaining within a few meters of the real position. In addition, since the truck is expected to follow the laws of physics, its position can also be estimated by integrating its velocity over time, determined by keeping track of wheel revolutions and the angle of the steering wheel. This is a technique known as
dead reckoning
In navigation, dead reckoning is the process of calculating the current position of a moving object by using a previously determined position, or fix, and incorporating estimates of speed, heading (or direction or course), and elapsed time. T ...
. Typically, the dead reckoning will provide a very smooth estimate of the truck's position, but it will
drift over time as small errors accumulate.
For this example, the Kalman filter can be thought of as operating in two distinct phases: predict and update. In the prediction phase, the truck's old position will be modified according to the physical
laws of motion (the dynamic or "state transition" model). Not only will a new position estimate be calculated, but also a new covariance will be calculated as well. Perhaps the covariance is proportional to the speed of the truck because we are more uncertain about the accuracy of the dead reckoning position estimate at high speeds but very certain about the position estimate at low speeds. Next, in the update phase, a measurement of the truck's position is taken from the GPS unit. Along with this measurement comes some amount of uncertainty, and its covariance relative to that of the prediction from the previous phase determines how much the new measurement will affect the updated prediction. Ideally, as the dead reckoning estimates tend to drift away from the real position, the GPS measurement should pull the position estimate back toward the real position but not disturb it to the point of becoming noisy and rapidly jumping.
Technical description and context
The Kalman filter is an efficient
recursive filter estimating the internal state of a
linear dynamic system from a series of
noisy measurements. It is used in a wide range of
engineering
Engineering is the practice of using natural science, mathematics, and the engineering design process to Problem solving#Engineering, solve problems within technology, increase efficiency and productivity, and improve Systems engineering, s ...
and
econometric
Econometrics is an application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. M. Hashem Pesaran (1987). "Econometrics", '' The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics'', v. 2, p. 8 p. 8� ...
applications from
radar
Radar is a system that uses radio waves to determine the distance ('' ranging''), direction ( azimuth and elevation angles), and radial velocity of objects relative to the site. It is a radiodetermination method used to detect and track ...
and
computer vision
Computer vision tasks include methods for image sensor, acquiring, Image processing, processing, Image analysis, analyzing, and understanding digital images, and extraction of high-dimensional data from the real world in order to produce numerical ...
to estimation of structural macroeconomic models, and is an important topic in
control theory
Control theory is a field of control engineering and applied mathematics that deals with the control system, control of dynamical systems in engineered processes and machines. The objective is to develop a model or algorithm governing the applic ...
and
control system
A control system manages, commands, directs, or regulates the behavior of other devices or systems using control loops. It can range from a single home heating controller using a thermostat controlling a domestic boiler to large industrial ...
s engineering. Together with the
linear-quadratic regulator (LQR), the Kalman filter solves the
linear–quadratic–Gaussian control problem (LQG). The Kalman filter, the linear-quadratic regulator, and the linear–quadratic–Gaussian controller are solutions to what arguably are the most fundamental problems of control theory.
In most applications, the internal state is much larger (has more
degrees of freedom
In many scientific fields, the degrees of freedom of a system is the number of parameters of the system that may vary independently. For example, a point in the plane has two degrees of freedom for translation: its two coordinates; a non-infinite ...
) than the few "observable" parameters which are measured. However, by combining a series of measurements, the Kalman filter can estimate the entire internal state.
For the
Dempster–Shafer theory
The theory of belief functions, also referred to as evidence theory or Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), is a general framework for reasoning with uncertainty, with understood connections to other frameworks such as probability, possibility and ...
, each state equation or observation is considered a special case of a
linear belief function and the Kalman filtering is a special case of combining linear belief functions on a join-tree or
Markov tree. Additional methods include
belief filter
In probability theory, statistics, and machine learning, recursive Bayesian estimation, also known as a Bayes filter, is a general probabilistic approach for estimating an unknown probability density function (PDF) recursively over time using in ...
ing which use Bayes or evidential updates to the state equations.
A wide variety of Kalman filters exists by now: Kalman's original formulation - now termed the "simple" Kalman filter, the
Kalman–Bucy filter
In statistics and control theory, Kalman filtering (also known as linear quadratic estimation) is an algorithm that uses a series of measurements observed over time, including statistical noise and other inaccuracies, to produce estimates of unk ...
, Schmidt's "extended" filter, the
information filter, and a variety of "square-root" filters that were developed by Bierman, Thornton, and many others. Perhaps the most commonly used type of very simple Kalman filter is the
phase-locked loop
A phase-locked loop or phase lock loop (PLL) is a control system that generates an output signal whose phase is fixed relative to the phase of an input signal. Keeping the input and output phase in lockstep also implies keeping the input and ou ...
, which is now ubiquitous in radios, especially
frequency modulation
Frequency modulation (FM) is a signal modulation technique used in electronic communication, originally for transmitting messages with a radio wave. In frequency modulation a carrier wave is varied in its instantaneous frequency in proporti ...
(FM) radios, television sets,
satellite communications
A communications satellite is an artificial satellite that relays and amplifies radio telecommunication signals via a transponder; it creates a communication channel between a source transmitter and a receiver at different locations on Earth. ...
receivers, outer space communications systems, and nearly any other
electronic communications equipment.
Underlying dynamic system model
Kalman filtering is based on
linear dynamic systems discretized in the time domain. They are modeled on a
Markov chain
In probability theory and statistics, a Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic process describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event. Informally ...
built on
linear operator
In mathematics, and more specifically in linear algebra, a linear map (also called a linear mapping, linear transformation, vector space homomorphism, or in some contexts linear function) is a mapping V \to W between two vector spaces that pr ...
s perturbed by errors that may include
Gaussian
Carl Friedrich Gauss (1777–1855) is the eponym of all of the topics listed below.
There are over 100 topics all named after this German mathematician and scientist, all in the fields of mathematics, physics, and astronomy. The English eponymo ...
noise
Noise is sound, chiefly unwanted, unintentional, or harmful sound considered unpleasant, loud, or disruptive to mental or hearing faculties. From a physics standpoint, there is no distinction between noise and desired sound, as both are vibrat ...
. The
state
State most commonly refers to:
* State (polity), a centralized political organization that regulates law and society within a territory
**Sovereign state, a sovereign polity in international law, commonly referred to as a country
**Nation state, a ...
of the target system refers to the ground truth (yet hidden) system configuration of interest, which is represented as a
vector
Vector most often refers to:
* Euclidean vector, a quantity with a magnitude and a direction
* Disease vector, an agent that carries and transmits an infectious pathogen into another living organism
Vector may also refer to:
Mathematics a ...
of
real number
In mathematics, a real number is a number that can be used to measure a continuous one- dimensional quantity such as a duration or temperature. Here, ''continuous'' means that pairs of values can have arbitrarily small differences. Every re ...
s. At each
discrete time
In mathematical dynamics, discrete time and continuous time are two alternative frameworks within which variables that evolve over time are modeled.
Discrete time
Discrete time views values of variables as occurring at distinct, separate "poi ...
increment, a linear operator is applied to the state to generate the new state, with some noise mixed in, and optionally some information from the controls on the system if they are known. Then, another linear operator mixed with more noise generates the measurable outputs (i.e., observation) from the true ("hidden") state. The Kalman filter may be regarded as analogous to the hidden Markov model, with the difference that the hidden state variables have values in a continuous space as opposed to a discrete state space as for the hidden Markov model. There is a strong analogy between the equations of a Kalman Filter and those of the hidden Markov model. A review of this and other models is given in Roweis and
Ghahramani (1999)
and Hamilton (1994), Chapter 13.
[Hamilton, J. (1994), ''Time Series Analysis'', Princeton University Press. Chapter 13, 'The Kalman Filter']
In order to use the Kalman filter to estimate the internal state of a process given only a sequence of noisy observations, one must model the process in accordance with the following framework. This means specifying the matrices, for each time-step ''
'', following:
*
, the state-transition model;
*
, the observation model;
*
, the
covariance
In probability theory and statistics, covariance is a measure of the joint variability of two random variables.
The sign of the covariance, therefore, shows the tendency in the linear relationship between the variables. If greater values of one ...
of the process noise;
*
, the
covariance
In probability theory and statistics, covariance is a measure of the joint variability of two random variables.
The sign of the covariance, therefore, shows the tendency in the linear relationship between the variables. If greater values of one ...
of the observation noise;
* and sometimes
, the control-input model as described below; if
is included, then there is also
*
, the control vector, representing the controlling input into control-input model.
As seen below, it is common in many applications that the matrices
,
,
,
, and
are constant across time, in which case their
index may be dropped.

The Kalman filter model assumes the true state at time
is evolved from the state at
according to
:
where
*
is the state transition model which is applied to the previous state x
''k''−1;
*
is the control-input model which is applied to the control vector
;
*
is the process noise, which is assumed to be drawn from a zero mean
multivariate normal distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the multivariate normal distribution, multivariate Gaussian distribution, or joint normal distribution is a generalization of the one-dimensional ( univariate) normal distribution to higher dimensions. One d ...
,
, with
covariance
In probability theory and statistics, covariance is a measure of the joint variability of two random variables.
The sign of the covariance, therefore, shows the tendency in the linear relationship between the variables. If greater values of one ...
,
:
.
If
is independent of time, one may, following Roweis and Ghahramani,
write
instead of
to emphasize that the noise has no explicit knowledge of time.
At time
an observation (or measurement)
of the true state
is made according to
:
where
*
is the observation model, which maps the true state space into the observed space and
*
is the observation noise, which is assumed to be zero mean Gaussian
white noise
In signal processing, white noise is a random signal having equal intensity at different frequencies, giving it a constant power spectral density. The term is used with this or similar meanings in many scientific and technical disciplines, i ...
with covariance
:
.
Analogously to the situation for
, one may write
instead of
if
is independent of time.
The initial state, and the noise vectors at each step
are all assumed to be mutually
independent
Independent or Independents may refer to:
Arts, entertainment, and media Artist groups
* Independents (artist group), a group of modernist painters based in Pennsylvania, United States
* Independentes (English: Independents), a Portuguese artist ...
.
Many real-time dynamic systems do not exactly conform to this model. In fact, unmodeled dynamics can seriously degrade the filter performance, even when it was supposed to work with unknown stochastic signals as inputs. The reason for this is that the effect of unmodeled dynamics depends on the input, and, therefore, can bring the estimation algorithm to instability (it diverges). On the other hand, independent white noise signals will not make the algorithm diverge. The problem of distinguishing between measurement noise and unmodeled dynamics is a difficult one and is treated as a problem of control theory using
robust control
In control theory, robust control is an approach to controller design that explicitly deals with uncertainty. Robust control methods are designed to function properly provided that uncertain parameters or disturbances are found within some (typical ...
.
Details
The Kalman filter is a
recursive
Recursion occurs when the definition of a concept or process depends on a simpler or previous version of itself. Recursion is used in a variety of disciplines ranging from linguistics to logic. The most common application of recursion is in m ...
estimator. This means that only the estimated state from the previous time step and the current measurement are needed to compute the estimate for the current state. In contrast to batch estimation techniques, no history of observations and/or estimates is required. In what follows, the notation
represents the estimate of
at time ''n'' given observations up to and including at time .
The state of the filter is represented by two variables:
*
, the ''
a posteriori
('from the earlier') and ('from the later') are Latin phrases used in philosophy to distinguish types of knowledge, justification, or argument by their reliance on experience. knowledge is independent from any experience. Examples include ...
'' state estimate mean at time ''k'' given observations up to and including at time ''k'';
*
, the ''a posteriori'' estimate covariance matrix (a measure of the estimated
accuracy
Accuracy and precision are two measures of ''observational error''.
''Accuracy'' is how close a given set of measurements (observations or readings) are to their ''true value''.
''Precision'' is how close the measurements are to each other.
The ...
of the state estimate).
The algorithm structure of the Kalman filter resembles that of
Alpha beta filter
An alpha beta filter (also called alpha-beta filter, f-g filter or g-h filterEli Brookner: Tracking and Kalman Filtering Made Easy. Wiley-Interscience, 1st edition, 4 1998.) is a simplified form of State observer, observer for estimation, data smo ...
. The Kalman filter can be written as a single equation; however, it is most often conceptualized as two distinct phases: "Predict" and "Update". The predict phase uses the state estimate from the previous timestep to produce an estimate of the state at the current timestep. This predicted state estimate is also known as the ''a priori'' state estimate because, although it is an estimate of the state at the current timestep, it does not include observation information from the current timestep. In the update phase, the
innovation
Innovation is the practical implementation of ideas that result in the introduction of new goods or service (economics), services or improvement in offering goods or services. ISO TC 279 in the standard ISO 56000:2020 defines innovation as "a n ...
(the pre-fit residual), i.e. the difference between the current ''a priori'' prediction and the current observation information, is multiplied by the optimal Kalman gain and combined with the previous state estimate to refine the state estimate. This improved estimate based on the current observation is termed the ''a posteriori'' state estimate.
Typically, the two phases alternate, with the prediction advancing the state until the next scheduled observation, and the update incorporating the observation. However, this is not necessary; if an observation is unavailable for some reason, the update may be skipped and multiple prediction procedures performed. Likewise, if multiple independent observations are available at the same time, multiple update procedures may be performed (typically with different observation matrices H
''k'').
Predict
Update
The formula for the updated (''a posteriori'') estimate covariance above is valid for the optimal K
k gain that minimizes the residual error, in which form it is most widely used in applications. Proof of the formulae is found in the ''
derivations'' section, where the formula valid for any K
k is also shown.
A more intuitive way to express the updated state estimate (
) is:
:
This expression reminds us of a linear interpolation,
for
between
,1
In our case:
*
is the matrix
that takes values from
(high error in the sensor) to
or a projection (low error).
*
is the internal state
estimated from the model.
*
is the internal state
estimated from the measurement, assuming
is nonsingular.
This expression also resembles the
alpha beta filter
An alpha beta filter (also called alpha-beta filter, f-g filter or g-h filterEli Brookner: Tracking and Kalman Filtering Made Easy. Wiley-Interscience, 1st edition, 4 1998.) is a simplified form of State observer, observer for estimation, data smo ...
update step.
Invariants
If the model is accurate, and the values for
and
accurately reflect the distribution of the initial state values, then the following invariants are preserved:
:
where