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Statistical Noise
In statistics, the fraction of variance unexplained (FVU) in the context of a regression task is the fraction of variance of the regressand (dependent variable) ''Y'' which cannot be explained, i.e., which is not correctly predicted, by the explanatory variables ''X''. Formal definition Suppose we are given a regression function f yielding for each y_i an estimate \widehat_i = f(x_i) where x_i is the vector of the ''i''th observations on all the explanatory variables. We define the fraction of variance unexplained (FVU) as: :\begin \text & = = = \left( = 1- , \text\right) \\ pt & = 1 - R^2 \end where ''R''2 is the coefficient of determination and ''VAR''err and ''VAR''tot are the variance of the residuals and the sample variance of the dependent variable. ''SS''''err'' (the sum of squared predictions errors, equivalently the residual sum of squares), ''SS''''tot'' (the total sum of squares), and ''SS''''reg'' (the sum of squares of the regression, equivalently the expla ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of statistical survey, surveys and experimental design, experiments. When census data (comprising every member of the target population) cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey sample (statistics), samples. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can reasonably extend from the sample ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Coefficient Of Determination
In statistics, the coefficient of determination, denoted ''R''2 or ''r''2 and pronounced "R squared", is the proportion of the variation in the dependent variable that is predictable from the independent variable(s). It is a statistic used in the context of statistical models whose main purpose is either the prediction of future outcomes or the testing of hypotheses, on the basis of other related information. It provides a measure of how well observed outcomes are replicated by the model, based on the proportion of total variation of outcomes explained by the model. There are several definitions of ''R''2 that are only sometimes equivalent. In simple linear regression (which includes an intercept), ''r''2 is simply the square of the sample ''correlation coefficient'' (''r''), between the observed outcomes and the observed predictor values. If additional regressors are included, ''R''2 is the square of the '' coefficient of multiple correlation''. In both such cases, the coeffi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Parametric Statistics
Parametric statistics is a branch of statistics which leverages models based on a fixed (finite) set of parameters. Conversely nonparametric statistics does not assume explicit (finite-parametric) mathematical forms for distributions when modeling data. However, it may make some assumptions about that distribution, such as continuity or symmetry, or even an explicit mathematical shape but have a model for a distributional parameter that is not itself finite-parametric. Most well-known statistical methods are parametric. Regarding nonparametric (and semiparametric) models, Sir David Cox has said, "These typically involve fewer assumptions of structure and distributional form but usually contain strong assumptions about independencies". Example The normal family of distributions all have the same general shape and are ''parameterized'' by mean and standard deviation. That means that if the mean and standard deviation are known and if the distribution is normal, the probability o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mean Absolute Scaled Error
In statistics, the mean absolute scaled error (MASE) is a measure of the accuracy of forecasts. It is the mean absolute error of the forecast values, divided by the mean absolute error of the in-sample one-step naive forecast. It was proposed in 2005 by statistician Rob J. Hyndman and decision scientist Anne B. Koehler, who described it as a "generally applicable measurement of forecast accuracy without the problems seen in the other measurements." The mean absolute scaled error has favorable properties when compared to other methods for calculating forecast errors, such as root-mean-square-deviation, and is therefore recommended for determining comparative accuracy of forecasts. Rationale The mean absolute scaled error has the following desirable properties: # Scale invariance: The mean absolute scaled error is independent of the scale of the data, so can be used to compare forecasts across data sets with different scales. # Predictable behavior as y_ \rightarrow 0 : Perce ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Linear Regression
In statistics, linear regression is a statistical model, model that estimates the relationship between a Scalar (mathematics), scalar response (dependent variable) and one or more explanatory variables (regressor or independent variable). A model with exactly one explanatory variable is a ''simple linear regression''; a model with two or more explanatory variables is a multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, which predicts multiple correlated dependent variables rather than a single dependent variable. In linear regression, the relationships are modeled using linear predictor functions whose unknown model parameters are estimation theory, estimated from the data. Most commonly, the conditional mean of the response given the values of the explanatory variables (or predictors) is assumed to be an affine function of those values; less commonly, the conditional median or some other quantile is used. Like all forms of regression analysis, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Lack-of-fit Sum Of Squares
In statistics, a sum of squares due to lack of fit, or more tersely a lack-of-fit sum of squares, is one of the components of a partition of the sum of squares of residuals in an analysis of variance, used in the numerator in an F-test of the null hypothesis that says that a proposed model fits well. The other component is the pure-error sum of squares. The pure-error sum of squares is the sum of squared deviations of each value of the dependent variable from the average value over all observations sharing its independent variable value(s). These are errors that could never be avoided by any predictive equation that assigned a predicted value for the dependent variable as a function of the value(s) of the independent variable(s). The remainder of the residual sum of squares is attributed to lack of fit of the model since it would be mathematically possible to eliminate these errors entirely. Principle In order for the lack-of-fit sum of squares to differ from the sum of squares ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Explained Sum Of Squares
In statistics, the explained sum of squares (ESS), alternatively known as the model sum of squares or sum of squares due to regression (SSR – not to be confused with the residual sum of squares (RSS) or sum of squares of errors), is a quantity used in describing how well a model, often a regression model, represents the data being modelled. In particular, the explained sum of squares measures how much variation there is in the modelled values and this is compared to the total sum of squares (TSS), which measures how much variation there is in the observed data, and to the residual sum of squares, which measures the variation in the error between the observed data and modelled values. Definition The explained sum of squares (ESS) is the sum of the squares of the deviations of the predicted values from the mean value of a response variable, in a standard regression model — for example, , where ''y''''i'' is the ''i'' th observation of the response variable, ''x''''ji'' is th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Correlation
In statistics, correlation or dependence is any statistical relationship, whether causal or not, between two random variables or bivariate data. Although in the broadest sense, "correlation" may indicate any type of association, in statistics it usually refers to the degree to which a pair of variables are '' linearly'' related. Familiar examples of dependent phenomena include the correlation between the height of parents and their offspring, and the correlation between the price of a good and the quantity the consumers are willing to purchase, as it is depicted in the demand curve. Correlations are useful because they can indicate a predictive relationship that can be exploited in practice. For example, an electrical utility may produce less power on a mild day based on the correlation between electricity demand and weather. In this example, there is a causal relationship, because extreme weather causes people to use more electricity for heating or cooling. However, in g ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Covariance
In probability theory and statistics, covariance is a measure of the joint variability of two random variables. The sign of the covariance, therefore, shows the tendency in the linear relationship between the variables. If greater values of one variable mainly correspond with greater values of the other variable, and the same holds for lesser values (that is, the variables tend to show similar behavior), the covariance is positive. In the opposite case, when greater values of one variable mainly correspond to lesser values of the other (that is, the variables tend to show opposite behavior), the covariance is negative. The magnitude of the covariance is the geometric mean of the variances that are in common for the two random variables. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient, correlation coefficient normalizes the covariance by dividing by the geometric mean of the total variances for the two random variables. A distinction must be made between (1) the covariance of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mean Squared Error
In statistics, the mean squared error (MSE) or mean squared deviation (MSD) of an estimator (of a procedure for estimating an unobserved quantity) measures the average of the squares of the errors—that is, the average squared difference between the estimated values and the true value. MSE is a risk function, corresponding to the expected value of the squared error loss. The fact that MSE is almost always strictly positive (and not zero) is because of randomness or because the estimator does not account for information that could produce a more accurate estimate. In machine learning, specifically empirical risk minimization, MSE may refer to the ''empirical'' risk (the average loss on an observed data set), as an estimate of the true MSE (the true risk: the average loss on the actual population distribution). The MSE is a measure of the quality of an estimator. As it is derived from the square of Euclidean distance, it is always a positive value that decreases as the erro ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Explained Sum Of Squares
In statistics, the explained sum of squares (ESS), alternatively known as the model sum of squares or sum of squares due to regression (SSR – not to be confused with the residual sum of squares (RSS) or sum of squares of errors), is a quantity used in describing how well a model, often a regression model, represents the data being modelled. In particular, the explained sum of squares measures how much variation there is in the modelled values and this is compared to the total sum of squares (TSS), which measures how much variation there is in the observed data, and to the residual sum of squares, which measures the variation in the error between the observed data and modelled values. Definition The explained sum of squares (ESS) is the sum of the squares of the deviations of the predicted values from the mean value of a response variable, in a standard regression model — for example, , where ''y''''i'' is the ''i'' th observation of the response variable, ''x''''ji'' is th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
