The Great Replacement (french: links=no, Grand Remplacement), also known as replacement theory or great replacement theory, is a white nationalist
far-right
Far-right politics, also referred to as the extreme right or right-wing extremism, are political beliefs and actions further to the right of the left–right political spectrum than the standard political right, particularly in terms of bein ...
conspiracy theory PT71 disseminated by French author Renaud Camus. The original theory states that, with the complicity or cooperation of "replacist" elites, PT29 the ethnic French and white European populations at large are being demographically and culturally replaced with non-white peoples—especially from Muslim-majority countries—through mass migration, demographic growth and a drop in the birth rate of white Europeans. Since then, similar claims have been advanced in other national contexts, notably in the United States. Mainstream scholars have dismissed these claims as rooted in a misunderstanding of demographic statistics and premised upon an unscientific, racist worldview. According to the ''
Encyclopædia Britannica
The ( Latin for "British Encyclopædia") is a general knowledge English-language encyclopaedia. It is published by Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.; the company has existed since the 18th century, although it has changed ownership various ...
'', the Great Replacement "has been widely ridiculed for its blatant absurdity."
While similar themes have characterized various far-right theories since the late 19th century, the particular term was popularized by Camus in his 2011 book ''Le Grand Remplacement''. The book associates the presence of
Muslims in France
Islam in France is a minority faith. Muslims are estimated to represent around 4 to 8 percent of the nation's population and France is estimated to have the largest number of Muslims in the Western world, primarily due to migration from Maghr ...
with danger and destruction of French culture and civilization. Camus and other conspiracy theorists attribute recent demographic changes in Europe to intentional policies advanced by global and liberal elites (the "replacists") from within the
Government of France
The Government of France (French: ''Gouvernement français''), officially the Government of the French Republic (''Gouvernement de la République française'' ), exercises executive power in France. It is composed of the Prime Minister, who ...
, the
European Union
The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been ...
, or the
United Nations
The United Nations (UN) is an intergovernmental organization whose stated purposes are to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and be a centre for harmonizi ...
; they describe it as a "genocide by substitution".
The conspiracy theory found support in Europe, and has also grown popular among anti-migrant and white nationalist movements from other parts of the
West
West or Occident is one of the four cardinal directions or points of the compass. It is the opposite direction from east and is the direction in which the Sun sets on the Earth.
Etymology
The word "west" is a Germanic word passed into some ...
; many of their adherents maintain that "immigrants reflocking to predominantly white countries for the precise purpose of rendering the white population a minority within their own land or even causing the extinction of the native population". It aligns with (and is a part of) the larger
white genocide conspiracy theory
The white genocide, white extinction, or white replacement conspiracy theory is a White supremacy, white supremacist conspiracy theory which states that there is a deliberate plot, often Antisemitic canard, blamed on Jews, to promote miscegenat ...
except in the strategic replacement of
antisemitic canard
Antisemitic tropes, canards, or myths are "Sensationalism, sensational reports, misrepresentations, or Fabrication (lie), fabrications" that are Defamation, defamatory towards Judaism as a religion or defamatory towards Jews as an Ethnic group, ...
s with
Islamophobia
Islamophobia is the fear of, hatred of, or prejudice against the religion of Islam or Muslims in general, especially when seen as a geopolitical force or a source of terrorism.
The scope and precise definition of the term ''Islamophobia ...
. This replacement, along with a use of simple catch-all slogans, have been cited as reasons for its broader appeal in a pan-European context, although the concept remains rooted in antisemitism in many white nationalist movements, especially (but not exclusively) in the United States.
Although Camus has publicly condemned white nationalist violence, scholars have argued that calls to violence are implicit in his depiction of non-white migrants as an existential threat to white populations., 23m05s. Several far-right terrorists, including the perpetrators of the
2019 Christchurch mosque shootings
On 15 March 2019, two consecutive mass shootings occurred in a terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. The attacks, carried out by a lone gunman who entered both mosques during Friday prayer, began at the Al Noor Mosq ...
2022 Buffalo shooting
On May 14, 2022, a mass shooting occurred in Buffalo, New York, United States, at a Tops Friendly Markets supermarket in the East Side neighborhood. Ten people, all of whom were Black, were murdered and three were injured. The shooter, identi ...
, have made reference to the "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory. American conservative media personalities, including
Tucker Carlson
Tucker Swanson McNear Carlson (born May 16, 1969) is an American television host, Conservatism in the United States, conservative Pundit, political commentator and writer who has hosted the nightly political talk show ''Tucker Carlson Tonight ...
and Laura Ingraham, have espoused ideas of a replacement. Some Republican politicians have endorsed the theory in order to appeal to far-right members of the Republican Party and as a way of signalling their loyalty to
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of ...
.
Background
Renaud Camus developed his conspiracy theory in two books published in 2010 and 2011, in the context of an increase in anti-immigrant rhetoric in public discourse during the previous decade. Europe also experienced an escalation in Islamic terrorist attacks during the 2000s–2010s, and a migrant crisis that began in 2015, which exacerbated tensions and prepared public opinion for the reception of Camus's conspiracy theory. As the latter depicts a population replacement said to occur in a short time lapse of one or two generations, the migrant crisis was particularly conducive to the spread of Camus's ideas while the terrorist attacks accelerated the construction of immigrants as an existential threat among those who shared such a worldview.
Camus's theme of a future demise of European culture and civilization also parallels a " cultural pessimistic" and anti-Islam trend among European intellectuals of the period, illustrated in several best-selling and straightforwardly titled books released during the 2010s: Thilo Sarrazin's ''
Germany Abolishes Itself
''Germany Abolishes Itself: How We're Putting Our Country in Jeopardy'' (German title: ''Deutschland schafft sich ab: Wie wir unser Land aufs Spiel setzen'') is a 2010 book by Thilo Sarrazin.
Themes
According to John Judis, Sarrazin argued for r ...
'' (2010),
Éric Zemmour
Éric Justin Léon Zemmour (; born 31 August 1958) is a French far-right politician, essayist, writer and former political journalist and pundit. He was an editor and panelist on ''Face à l'Info'', a daily show broadcast on CNews, from 2019 to ...
's ''
The French Suicide
''The French Suicide'' (''Le Suicide français'') is a 2014 essay by French far-right journalist Éric Zemmour. It argues that the French nation state has suffered a gradual decline since the 1970s, which Zemmour mainly attributes to the rise o ...
Submission
Deference (also called submission or passivity) is the condition of submitting to the espoused, legitimate influence of one's superior or superiors. Deference implies a yielding or submitting to the judgment of a recognized superior, out of re ...
'' (2015).
Concept of Renaud Camus
The "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory was developed by French author Renaud Camus, initially in a 2010 book titled ''L'Abécédaire de l'in-nocence'' ("Abecedarium of no-harm"), and the following year in an eponymous book, ''Le Grand Remplacement (introduction au remplacisme global)''. Camus has claimed that the name "came to im almost by chance, perhaps in a more or less unconscious reference to the '' Grand Dérangement'' of the
Acadians
The Acadians (french: Acadiens , ) are an ethnic group descended from the French who settled in the New France colony of Acadia during the 17th and 18th centuries. Most Acadians live in the region of Acadia, as it is the region where the ...
in the 18th century.", 4m25s. Commenting on the name, he has also declared that his theory was the "implementation in real life" of
Bertolt Brecht
Eugen Berthold Friedrich Brecht (10 February 1898 – 14 August 1956), known professionally as Bertolt Brecht, was a German theatre practitioner, playwright, and poet. Coming of age during the Weimar Republic, he had his first successes as a ...
's quip from the satirical poem '' Die Lösung'' that the easiest thing to do for a government was to change the people had the people forfeited its confidence.
According to Camus, the "Great Replacement" has been nourished by "
industrialisation
Industrialisation ( alternatively spelled industrialization) is the period of social and economic change that transforms a human group from an agrarian society into an industrial society. This involves an extensive re-organisation of an econ ...
globalism
Globalism refers to various patterns of meaning beyond the merely international. It is used by political scientists, such as Joseph Nye, to describe "attempts to understand all the interconnections of the modern world—and to highlight pattern ...
having created a "replaceable human, without any national, ethnic or cultural specificity", what he labels "global replacism". Camus claims that "the great replacement does not need a definition," as the term is not, in his views, a "concept" but rather a "phenomenon".
In Camus's theory, the indigenous French people ("the replaced") is described as being demographically replaced by non-white populations ("the replacing eoples)—mainly coming from
Africa
Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent, after Asia in both cases. At about 30.3 million km2 (11.7 million square miles) including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of Earth's total surface area ...
or the
Middle East
The Middle East ( ar, الشرق الأوسط, ISO 233: ) is a geopolitical region commonly encompassing Arabia (including the Arabian Peninsula and Bahrain), Asia Minor (Asian part of Turkey except Hatay Province), East Thrace (Europ ...
—in a process of "peopling immigration" encouraged by a "replacist power".
Camus frequently uses terms and concepts related to the period of
Nazi-occupied France
The Military Administration in France (german: Militärverwaltung in Frankreich; french: Occupation de la France par l'Allemagne) was an interim occupation authority established by Nazi Germany during World War II to administer the occupied zo ...
(1940–1945). He for instance labels "colonizers" or "Occupiers" people of non-European descent who reside in Europe, and dismisses what he calls the "replacist elites" as "collaborationist". Camus founded in 2017 an organization named the
National Council of European Resistance
The National Council of European Resistance (french: Conseil national de la résistance européenne, officially abbreviated as CNRE) is a France-based pan-European far-right political organization co-founded by Renaud Camus and Karim Ouchikh ...
, in a self-evident reference to the
World War II
World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a world war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. It involved the World War II by country, vast majority of the world's countries—including all of the great power ...
National Council of the Resistance
The National Council of the Resistance (also, National Resistance Council; in French: ''Conseil National de la Résistance'' (CNR), was the body that directed and coordinated the different movements of the French Resistance: the press, trade uni ...
(1943–1945). This analogy to the
French Resistance
The French Resistance (french: La Résistance) was a collection of organisations that fought the German occupation of France during World War II, Nazi occupation of France and the Collaborationism, collaborationist Vichy France, Vichy régim ...
against Nazism has been described as an implicit call to hatred, direct action or even violence against what Camus labels the "Occupiers; i.e. the immigrants"., 23m05s. Camus has also compared the Great Replacement and the so-called " genocide by substitution" of the European peoples to
the Holocaust
The Holocaust, also known as the Shoah, was the genocide of European Jews during World War II. Between 1941 and 1945, Nazi Germany and its collaborators systematically murdered some six million Jews across German-occupied Europe; ...
.
Claimed influences
Camus cites two influential figures in the epilogue of his 2011 book ''The Great Replacement'': British politician
Enoch Powell
John Enoch Powell, (16 June 1912 – 8 February 1998) was a British politician, classical scholar, author, linguist, soldier, philologist, and poet. He served as a Conservative Member of Parliament (1950–1974) and was Minister of Health (1 ...
's apocalyptic vision of future race relations—expressed in his 1968 "Rivers of Blood" speech—and French author
Jean Raspail
Jean Raspail (, 5 July 1925 – 13 June 2020) was a French author, traveler, and explorer. Many of his books are about historical figures, exploration and indigenous peoples. He was a recipient of the prestigious French literary awards Grand Prix ...
's depiction of the collapse of the West from an overwhelming "tidal wave" of
Third World
The term "Third World" arose during the Cold War to define countries that remained non-aligned with either NATO
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO, ; french: Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique nord, ), also called the Nor ...
immigration, featured in his 1973 novel '' The Camp of the Saints''.
Camus also declared to ''
The Spectator
''The Spectator'' is a weekly British magazine on politics, culture, and current affairs. It was first published in July 1828, making it the oldest surviving weekly magazine in the world.
It is owned by Frederick Barclay, who also owns ''Th ...
'' magazine in 2016 that a key to understanding the "Great Replacement" can be found in his 2002 book ''Du Sens''. In the latter he wrote that the words "France" and "French" equal a natural and physical reality rather than a legal one, in a cratylism similar to Charles Maurras's distinction between the "legal" and the "real country". During the same interview, Camus mentioned that he began to imagine his conspiracy theory back in 1996, during the redaction of a guidebook on the department of
Hérault
Hérault (; oc, Erau, ) is a department of the region of Occitania, Southern France. Named after the Hérault River, its prefecture is Montpellier. It had a population of 1,175,623 in 2019...the population had totally changed too ..this is when I began to write like that."
Similar themes
Despite its own singularities and concepts, the "Great Replacement" is encompassed in a larger and older "white genocide" conspiracy theory, popularized in the US by neo-Nazi David Lane in his 1995 ''White Genocide Manifesto'', where he asserted that governments in
Western countries
The Western world, also known as the West, primarily refers to the various nations and states in the regions of Europe, North America, and Oceania.
were intending to turn white people into "extinct species".
The idea of "replacement" under the guidance of a hostile elite can be further traced back to pre-WWII
antisemitic conspiracy theories
Antisemitic tropes, canards, or myths are "Sensationalism, sensational reports, misrepresentations, or Fabrication (lie), fabrications" that are Defamation, defamatory towards Judaism as a religion or defamatory towards Jews as an Ethnic group, ...
which posited the existence of a Jewish plot to destroy Europe through miscegenation, especially in
Édouard Drumont
Édouard Adolphe Drumont (3 May 1844 – 5 February 1917) was a French antisemitic journalist, author and politician. He initiated the Antisemitic League of France in 1889, and was the founder and editor of the newspaper '' La Libre Parole'' ...
's
antisemitic
Antisemitism (also spelled anti-semitism or anti-Semitism) is hostility to, prejudice towards, or discrimination against Jews. A person who holds such positions is called an antisemite. Antisemitism is considered to be a form of racism.
Ant ...
bestseller '' La France juive'' (1886). Commenting on this resemblance, historian
Nicolas Lebourg
Nicolas Lebourg (born 1974) is a French historian who specializes on far-right movements in Europe.
Biography
Born in 1974, Lebourg studied sociology at Aix-Marseille University and history at the University of Perpignan, from which he graduated ...
and political scientist
Jean-Yves Camus
Jean-Yves Camus (born 1958) is a French political scientist who specializes on nationalist movements in Europe.
Life and career
Born in 1958 to a Catholic and Gaullist family, Camus is an observant Jew and describes himself as part of "the ...
suggest that Camus's contribution was to replace the antisemitic elements with a clash of civilizations between Muslims and Europeans. Also in the late 19th century, imperialist politicians invoked the ''Péril jaune'' (
Yellow Peril
The Yellow Peril (also the Yellow Terror and the Yellow Specter) is a racist, racial color terminology for race, color metaphor that depicts the peoples of East Asia, East and Southeast Asia as an existential danger to the Western world. As a ...
) in their negative comparisons of France's low birth-rate and the high birth-rates of Asian countries. From that claim arose an artificial, cultural fear that immigrant-worker Asians soon would "flood" France. This danger supposedly could be successfully countered only by increased fecundity of French women. Then, France would possess enough soldiers to thwart the eventual flood of immigrants from Asia. Maurice Barrès's nationalist writings of that period have also been noted in the ideological genealogy of the "Great Replacement", Barrès contending both in 1889 and in 1900 that a replacement of the native population under the combined effect of immigration and a decline in the birth rate was happening in France.
Scholars also highlight a modern similarity to European neo-fascist and neo-Nazi thinkers from the immediate post-war, especially Maurice Bardèche, René Binet and
Gaston-Armand Amaudruz
Gaston-Armand "Guy" Amaudruz (21 December 1920 – 7 September 2018) was a Swiss neo-fascist political philosopher and Holocaust denier.
Biography
Initially a supporter of the Swiss fascist movement of Arthur Fonjallaz, he came to wider attent ...
, and to concepts advanced from the 1960s onward by the French Nouvelle Droite.
The associated and more recent conspiracy theory of " Eurabia", published by British author Bat Ye'or in her 2005 eponymous book, is often cited as a probable inspiration for Camus's "Great Replacement". Eurabia theory likewise involves globalist entities, that time led by both French and Arab powers, conspiring to Islamize Europe, with Muslims submerging the continent through immigration and higher birth rates. The conspiracy theory also depicts immigrants as invaders or as a
fifth column
A fifth column is any group of people who undermine a larger group or nation from within, usually in favor of an enemy group or another nation. According to Harris Mylonas and Scott Radnitz, "fifth columns" are “domestic actors who work to un ...
, invited to the continent by a corrupt political elite. Scholars generally agree that, although he did not father the theme, Camus indeed coined the term "Great Replacement" as a slogan and concept, and eventually led it to its fame in the 2010s.
Analysis
Demographic statistics
While the ethnic demography of France has shifted as a result of post-WWII immigration, scholars have generally dismissed the claims of a "great replacement" as being rooted in an exaggeration of immigration statistics and unscientific, racially prejudiced views. Geographer Landis MacKellar criticized Camus's thesis for assuming "that third- and fourth- generation 'immigrants' are somehow not French." Researchers have variously estimated the Muslim population of France at between 8.8% and 12.5% in 2017, making a "replacement" unlikely according to MacKellar.
Racial connotations
In the words of scholar Andrew Fergus Wilson, whereas the islamophobic Great Replacement theory can be distinguished from the parallel antisemitic
white genocide conspiracy theory
The white genocide, white extinction, or white replacement conspiracy theory is a White supremacy, white supremacist conspiracy theory which states that there is a deliberate plot, often Antisemitic canard, blamed on Jews, to promote miscegenat ...
, "they share the same terms of reference and both are ideologically aligned with the so-called '
14 words
Fourteen Words (also abbreviated 14 or 14/ 88) is a reference to two slogans originated by David Eden Lane, one of nine founding members of the defunct white separatist insurrectionary terrorist organization The Order. The slogans have served ...
Anti-Defamation League
The Anti-Defamation League (ADL), formerly known as the Anti-Defamation League of B'nai B'rith, is an international Jewish non-governmental organization based in the United States specializing in civil rights law. It was founded in late Septe ...
wrote that "since many white supremacists, particularly those in the United States, blame Jews for non-white immigration to the U.S.", the Great Replacement theory has been increasingly associated with antisemitism and conflated with the white genocide conspiracy theory. Scholar Kathleen Belew has argued that the Great Replacement theory "allows an opportunism in selecting enemies", but "also follows the central motivating logic, which is to protect the thing on the inside .e. the preservation and birth rate of the white race regardless of the enemy on the outside."
According to Australian historian A. Dirk Moses, the great replacement theory is a form of
psychological projection
Psychological projection is the process of misinterpreting what is "inside" as coming from "outside". It forms the basis of empathy by the projection of personal experiences to understand someone else's subjective world. In its malignant forms, i ...
in which Europeans—who enacted settler-colonial projects entailing the elimination and replacement of native populations by
settler societies
Settler society is a theoretical term in early modern and modern history that describes a common link between modern, predominantly European, attempts to permanently settle in other areas of the world. It is used to distinguish settler colonies fr ...
—fear the reverse may happen to them.
In German discourse, Austrian political scientist Rainer Bauböck questioned the conspiracy theorists' use of the terms "population replacement" or "exchange" ("''Bevölkerungsaustausch''"). Using Ruth Wodak's analysis that the slogan needs to be viewed in its historical context, Bauböck has concluded that the conspiracy theory is a reemergence of the Nazi ideology of ''
Umvolkung
''Umvolkung'' () is a term in Nazi ideology used to describe a process of assimilation of members of the German people (the ''Volk'') as a way for them to forget about their language and their origin. As a neologism, it echoes ''Umpolung'', 'pol ...
'' ("ethnicity inversion").
Popularity
The simplicity and use of catch-all slogans in Camus's formulations—"you have one people, and in the space of a generation you have a different people"—as well as his removal of antisemitism from the original neo-Nazi " white genocide" conspiracy theory, have been cited as conducive to the popularity of the "Great Replacement" in Europe.
In a survey led by Ifop in December 2018, 25% of the French subscribed to the conspiracy theory; as well as 46% of the responders who defined themselves as " Gilets Jaunes" (Yellow Vest protesters). In another survey led by Harris Interactive in October 2021, 61% of the French believed that the "Great Replacement" will happen in France; 67% of the respondents were worried about it.
The theory has also become influential in far-right and white nationalist circles outside of France. The conspiracy theory has been cited by Canadian far-right political activist
Lauren Southern
Lauren Cherie Southern (born 16 June 1995) is a Canadian alt-right YouTuber, political activist and commentator. In 2015, Southern ran as a Libertarian Party candidate in the Canadian federal election. Southern worked for Rebel Media unti ...
in a YouTube video of the same name released in July 2017. Southern's video had attracted in 2020 more than 686,000 viewers and is credited with helping to popularize the conspiracy theory.
Counter-jihad
Counter-jihad, also spelled counterjihad and known as the counter-jihad movement, is a self-titled political current loosely consisting of authors, bloggers, think tanks, street movements and campaign organisations all linked by apocalyptic bel ...
Norwegian blogger Fjordman has also participated in spreading the theory. It has also been promoted by the German edition of '' The Epoch Times'', a far-right Falun Gong-associated newspaper.
Prominent right-wing extremist websites such as Gates of Vienna,
Politically Incorrect
''Political correctness'' (adjectivally: ''politically correct''; commonly abbreviated ''PC'') is a term used to describe language, policies, or measures that are intended to avoid offense or disadvantage to members of particular groups in socie ...
, and have provided a platform for bloggers to diffuse and popularize the theory of the "Great Replacement". Among its main promoters are also a wide-ranging network of loosely connected white nationalist movements, especially the Identitarian movement in
Europe
Europe is a large peninsula conventionally considered a continent in its own right because of its great physical size and the weight of its history and traditions. Europe is also considered a subcontinent of Eurasia and it is located enti ...
Germany
Germany, officially the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG),, is a country in Central Europe. It is the most populous member state of the European Union. Germany lies between the Baltic and North Sea to the north and the Alps to the sou ...
.
Political influence
Europe
France
Much of the European spread of the Great Replacement (french: Grand Remplacement) conspiracy theory rhetoric is due to its prevalence in French national discourse and media.
Nationalist
Nationalism is an idea and movement that holds that the nation should be congruent with the State (polity), state. As a movement, nationalism tends to promote the interests of a particular nation (as in a in-group and out-group, group of peo ...
right-wing
Right-wing politics describes the range of political ideologies that view certain social orders and hierarchies as inevitable, natural, normal, or desirable, typically supporting this position on the basis of natural law, economics, autho ...
groups in France have asserted that there is an ongoing "Islamo-substitution" of the indigenous French population, associating the presence of
Muslims in France
Islam in France is a minority faith. Muslims are estimated to represent around 4 to 8 percent of the nation's population and France is estimated to have the largest number of Muslims in the Western world, primarily due to migration from Maghr ...
Marine Le Pen
Marion Anne Perrine "Marine" Le Pen (; born 5 August 1968) is a French lawyer and politician who ran for the French presidency in 2012, 2017, and 2022. A member of the National Rally (RN; previously the National Front, FN), she served as its p ...
evoked the theory, claiming that France's "adversaries" were waging a moral and economic war on the country, apparently "to deliver it to submersion by an organized replacement of our population". In 2013, historian Dominique Venner's suicide in
Notre-Dame de Paris
Notre-Dame de Paris (; meaning "Our Lady of Paris"), referred to simply as Notre-Dame, is a medieval Catholic cathedral on the Île de la Cité (an island in the Seine River), in the 4th arrondissement of Paris. The cathedral, dedicated to th ...
, in which he left a note outlining the "crime of the replacement of our people" is reported to have inspired the far-right ''Iliade Institutes main ideological tenet of the Great Replacement. Referring to the conspiracy theory, Marine Le Pen publicly praised Venner, claiming that his "last gesture, eminently political, was to try to awaken the
French people
The French people (french: Français) are an ethnic group and nation primarily located in Western Europe that share a common French culture, history, and language, identified with the country of France.
The French people, especially the ...
Swedish Army Museum
The Swedish Army Museum ( sv, Armémuseum) is a museum of military history located in the district of Östermalm in Stockholm. It reopened in 2002 after a long period of closure, and was awarded the title of the best museum of Stockholm in 2005. ...
in Stockholm, in which he claimed there were three societal things being used against Europeans to carry out a supposed Great Replacement: abortion, homosexuality and immigration. He asserted that Muslims were replacing white people by using birthrates as a demographic weapon.
In June 2017, a
BuzzFeed
BuzzFeed, Inc. is an American Internet media, news and entertainment company with a focus on digital media. Based in New York City, BuzzFeed was founded in 2006 by Jonah Peretti and John S. Johnson III to focus on tracking viral content. ...
investigation revealed three National Front candidates subscribing to the conspiracy theory ahead of the
legislative elections
A general election is a political voting election where generally all or most members of a given political body are chosen. These are usually held for a nation, state, or territory's primary legislative body, and are different from by-elections ...
. These included Senator
Stéphane Ravier
Stéphane Ravier (; born 4 August 1969) is a French politician and former civil servant who has represented the Bouches-du-Rhône department in the Senate since 2014. A former member of the National Rally who joined Reconquête in 2022, he pre ...
's personal assistant, who claimed the Great Replacement had already started in France. Publishing an image of blonde girl next to the caption "Say no to white genocide", Ravier's aide politically charged the concept further, writing "the National Front or the invasion".
By September 2018, in a meeting at
Fréjus
Fréjus (; ) is a commune in the Var department in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region in Southeastern France. In 2019, it had a population of 54,458.
It neighbours Saint-Raphaël, effectively forming one urban agglomeration. The north ...
, Marine Le Pen closely echoed Great Replacement rhetoric. Speaking of France, she declared that "never in the history of mankind, have we seen a society that organizes an irreversible submersion" that would eventually cause French society to "disappear by dilution or substitution, its culture and way of life". Former
National Assembly
In politics, a national assembly is either a unicameral legislature, the lower house of a bicameral legislature, or both houses of a bicameral legislature together. In the English language it generally means "an assembly composed of the rep ...
delegate Marion Maréchal, who is a junior member of the political Le Pen family, is also a proponent of the theory. In March 2019, in a trip to the U.S., Maréchal evoked the theory, stating "I don't want France to become a land of Islam". Insisting that the Great Replacement was "not absurd", she declared the "indigenous French" people, apparently in danger of being a minority by 2040, now wanted their "country back".
National Rally
The National Rally (french: Rassemblement National, ; RN), until 2018 known as the National Front (french: link=no, Front National, ; FN), is a far-rightAbridged list of reliable sources that refer to National Rally as far-right:
Academic:
* ...
's serving president Marine Le Pen, who is the aunt of Maréchal, has been heavily influenced by the Great Replacement. '' FAZ'' newspaper has described the conspiracy theory creator Renaud Camus as Le Pen's "whisperer". In May 2019, National Rally spokesman
Jordan Bardella
Jordan Bardella (born 13 September 1995) is a French far-right politician who has been the president of the National Rally (RN) since 2022, previously serving as acting president from September 2021 to November 2022 and as vice-president from 20 ...
was reported to use the conspiracy theory during a televised debate with Nathalie Loiseau, after he argued that France must "turn off the tap" from the
demographic bomb The concept of demographic threat (or demographic bomb) is a term used in political conversation or demography to refer to population increases from within a minority ethnic or religious group in a given country that is perceived as threatening to t ...
of African immigration into the country.
In June 2019, journalist and author
Éric Zemmour
Éric Justin Léon Zemmour (; born 31 August 1958) is a French far-right politician, essayist, writer and former political journalist and pundit. He was an editor and panelist on ''Face à l'Info'', a daily show broadcast on CNews, from 2019 to ...
pushed the concept in comparison to the
Kosovo War
The Kosovo War was an armed conflict in Kosovo that started 28 February 1998 and lasted until 11 June 1999. It was fought by the forces of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (i.e. Serbia and Montenegro), which controlled Kosovo before the w ...
, claiming "In 1900, there were 90% Serbs and 10% Muslims in Kosovo, in 1990 there were 90% Muslims and 10%
Serbs
The Serbs ( sr-Cyr, Срби, Srbi, ) are the most numerous South Slavic ethnic group native to the Balkans in Southeastern Europe, who share a common Serbian ancestry, culture, history and language.
The majority of Serbs live in their ...
, then there was war and the independence of Kosovo". Zemmour, author of ''
The French Suicide
''The French Suicide'' (''Le Suicide français'') is a 2014 essay by French far-right journalist Éric Zemmour. It argues that the French nation state has suffered a gradual decline since the 1970s, which Zemmour mainly attributes to the rise o ...
'', has repeatedly described "the progressive replacement, over a few decades, of the historic population of our country by immigrants, the vast majority of them non-European". Later that month, Marion Maréchal joined Zemmour in invoking the Great Replacement in relation to the
Balkan
The Balkans ( ), also known as the Balkan Peninsula, is a geographical area in southeastern Europe with various geographical and historical definitions. The region takes its name from the Balkan Mountains that stretch throughout the who ...
region, stating "I do not want my France to become
Kosovo
Kosovo ( sq, Kosova or ; sr-Cyrl, Косово ), officially the Republic of Kosovo ( sq, Republika e Kosovës, links=no; sr, Република Косово, Republika Kosovo, links=no), is a partially recognised state in Southeast Eur ...
" and declared that the changing
demographics of France
The demography of France is monitored by the Institut national d'études démographiques (INED) and the Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE). As of 1 January 2021, 65,250,000 people lived in Metropolitan Fra ...
"threatens us" ("nous menace") and that this was increasingly clear. Zemmour ran for President in 2022 and continued to extensively promote the theory during his campaign. He finished in fourth place in the first round of the election, taking 7,07% of the vote.
Austria
Identitäre Bewegung Österreich
Identitäre Bewegung Österreich (IBÖ; en, Identitarian Movement Austria) is an Austrian far-right nationalist and Neue Rechte organization. Inspired by the French Bloc identitaire, it belongs to the pan-European Identitarian movement and i ...
(IBÖ), the Austrian branch of the Identitarian movement, promotes this theory, citing a "great exchange" or replacement of the population that supposedly needs to be reversed. In April 2019, Heinz-Christian Strache campaigning for his
FPÖ
The Freedom Party of Austria (german: Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs, FPÖ) is a right-wing populist and national-conservative political party in Austria. It was led by Norbert Hofer from September 2019 to 1 June 2021.Staff (1 June 2021"Aus ...
party ahead of the
2019 European Parliament election
The 2019 European Parliament election was held between 23 and 26 May 2019, the ninth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979. A total of 751 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) represent more than 512 million peopl ...
endorsed the conspiracy theory. Claiming that "population replacement" in Austria was a real threat, he stated that "We don't want to become a minority in our own country". Compatriot Martin Sellner, who also supports the theory, celebrated Strache's political use of the Great Replacement.
Belgium
In September 2018, , an extremist Flemish youth organization, were reported to be endorsing the conspiracy theory. The group, claiming that native populations of Europe were being replaced by migrants; they proposed an end to all immigration, forced deportation of non-whites, and the founding of ethnostates. The following month, VRT detailed how the organization was discussing the Great Replacement on secretive chat channels, and using the conspiracy theory to promote Flemish ethnic identity.
In March 2019, Flemish nationalist
Dries Van Langenhove
Dries Van Langenhove (born 11 May, 1993) is a Belgium, Belgian Far-right politics, far-right Activism#Political activism, political activist and former politician.
Van Langenhove is the founder and leader of the far-right Flemish Movement, Flemi ...
of the Vlaams Belang party repeatedly stated that the
Flemish people
The Flemish or Flemings ( nl, Vlamingen ) are a Germanic ethnic group native to Flanders, Belgium, who speak Dutch. Flemish people make up the majority of Belgians, at about 60%.
"''Flemish''" was historically a geographical term, as all inh ...
were "being replaced" in Belgium, posting claims on social media which endorsed the Great Replacement theory.
Denmark
Use of the Great Replacement ( da, Store Udskiftning) conspiracy theory has become common in right-wing Danish political rhetoric. In April 2019, Rasmus Paludan, leader of the Hard Line party, which is widely associated with the Great Replacement, claimed that by the year 2040
ethnic Danish
Danes ( da, danskere, ) are a North Germanic ethnic group and nationality native to Denmark and a modern nation identified with the country of Denmark. This connection may be ancestral, legal, historical, or cultural.
Danes generally regard th ...
people would be approaching to be a minority in Denmark, having been outnumbered by Muslims and their descendants. During a debate for the 2019 European Parliament elections, Paludan used the concept to justify a proposal to ban Muslim immigration and deport all Islamic residents from the country, in what ''
Le Monde
''Le Monde'' (; ) is a French daily afternoon newspaper. It is the main publication of Le Monde Group and reported an average circulation of 323,039 copies per issue in 2009, about 40,000 of which were sold abroad. It has had its own website si ...
'' described as Paludan "preaching the 'great replacement theory'".
In June 2019, Pia Kjærsgaard invoked the conspiracy theory while serving as Speaker of the Danish Parliament. After the alleged encouragement of Muslim communities to "vote red", for the Social Democrats; Kjærsgaard asked "What will happen? A replacement of the Danish people?".
Germany
Ex-SPD politician Thilo Sarrazin is reported to be one of the most influential promoters of the Great Replacement, having published several books on the subject, some of which, such as ''
Germany Abolishes Itself
''Germany Abolishes Itself: How We're Putting Our Country in Jeopardy'' (German title: ''Deutschland schafft sich ab: Wie wir unser Land aufs Spiel setzen'') is a 2010 book by Thilo Sarrazin.
Themes
According to John Judis, Sarrazin argued for r ...
'', are in high circulation. Sarrazin has proposed that there are too many immigrants in Germany, and that they supposedly have lower IQs than Germans. Regarding the demographics of Germany, he has claimed that in a century
will drop in number to 25 million, in 200 years to eight million and in 300 years: three million.
In May 2016,
Alternative for Germany
Alternative for Germany (german: link=no, Alternative für Deutschland, AfD; ) is a right-wing populist
*
*
*
*
*
*
* political party in Germany. AfD is known for its opposition to the European Union, as well as immigration to Germany ...
(german: link=no, Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) deputy leader
Beatrix von Storch
Beatrix Amelie Ehrengard Eilika von Storch (née Herzogin von Oldenburg; 27 May 1971) is a German politician and lawyer, who has been the Deputy Leader of the Alternative for Germany since July 2015 and a Member of the Bundestag since Septemb ...
used a language reminiscent of the theory when she claimed that plans for a mass exchange of populations ("''Massenaustausch der Bevölkerung''") had long been made.
In April 2017, a few months before he assumed the leadership of the AfD,
Alexander Gauland
Eberhardt Alexander Gauland (born 20 February 1941) is a German politician, journalist and lawyer who has served as leader of the right-wing political party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the Bundestag since September 2017 and co-leader of th ...
released a press statement regarding the issue of family reunification for refugees, in which he claimed that "Population exchange in Germany is running at full speed". In October 2018, following Beatrix von Storch's lead, Bundestag member
Petr Bystron
Petr Bystron (born 30 November 1972 in Olomouc) is a German politician. He was a candidate for Munich North for the Bundestag during the German federal election in 2017 for the right-wing Alternative for Germany
Alternative for Germany ( ...
said the Global Compact for Migration was part of the conspiracy to bring about systemic population change in Germany.
In March 2019, '' Vice Germany'' reported how AfD MP attempted to justify and assign blame for the
Christchurch mosque shootings
On 15 March 2019, two consecutive mass shootings occurred in a terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. The attacks, carried out by a lone gunman who entered both mosques during Friday prayer, began at the Al Noor Mosq ...
, in relation to his "The Great Exchange" theory, by asserting that the shooter's actions were driven by "overpopulation" from immigrants and "climate protection" against them. Laatsch also claimed that the
climate movement
The climate movement is a global social movement focused on pressuring governments and industry to take action (also called "climate action") addressing the causes and Effects of climate change, impacts of climate change. environmental movement, ...
, who he labelled "climate panic propagators", had a "shared responsibility" for the massacre, and singled out child activist
Greta Thunberg
Greta Tintin Eleonora Ernman Thunberg (; born 3 January 2003) is a Swedish environmental activist who is known for challenging world leaders to take immediate action for climate change mitigation.
Thunberg's activism began when she persuaded ...
.
Similarly, right-wing publicist denied that either
Anders Behring Breivik
Fjotolf Hansen (born 13 February 1979), better known by his birth name Anders Behring Breivik () and by his pseudonym Andrew Berwick, is a Norwegian far-right domestic terrorist, known for committing the 2011 Norway attacks on 22 July 2011. On ...
's 2011 manifesto, which referred to the Eurabia variant of the "white genocide" narrative, or Brenton Tarrant's 2019 ''The Great Replacement'' manifesto, had any connection to the theory. Claiming that it was, in fact, not a conspiracy theory at all, Lichtmesz said both Breivik and Tarrant were reacting to a real phenomenon; a "historically unique experiment" of a "Great Exchange" of people.
Hungary
Prime Minister
Viktor Orbán
Viktor Mihály Orbán (; born 31 May 1963) is a Hungarian politician who has served as prime minister of Hungary since 2010, previously holding the office from 1998 to 2002. He has presided over Fidesz since 1993, with a brief break between 2 ...
and his political party
Fidesz
Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance (; hu, Fidesz – Magyar Polgári Szövetség) is a right-wing populist and national-conservative political party in Hungary, led by Viktor Orbán.
It was formed in 1988 under the name of Alliance of Young ...
in Hungary have been associated with the conspiracy theory over the course of several years. ''
The Sydney Morning Herald
''The Sydney Morning Herald'' (''SMH'') is a daily compact newspaper published in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, and owned by Nine. Founded in 1831 as the ''Sydney Herald'', the ''Herald'' is the oldest continuously published newspaper ...
'' detailed Orbán's belief in and promotion of the Great Replacement as being central to the modern right-wing politics of Europe. In December 2018, he claimed the "Christian identity of Europe" needed saving, and labelled refugees traveling to Europe as "Muslim invaders". In a speech, Orbán asserted: "If in the future Europe is to be populated by people other than Europeans, and we accept this as a fact and see it as natural, then we will effectively be consenting to population replacement: to a process in which the European population is replaced".
He has also stated: "In all of Europe there are fewer and fewer children, and the answer of the West is migration," concluding that "We Hungarians have a different way of thinking. Instead of just numbers, we want Hungarian children." ''
ThinkProgress
''ThinkProgress'' was an American progressive news website that was active from 2005 to 2019. It was a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund (CAP Action), a progressive public policy research and advocacy organization. Founded ...
'' described the comments as pushing a version of the theory. In April 2019,
Radio New Zealand
Radio New Zealand ( mi, Te Reo Irirangi o Aotearoa), commonly known as Radio NZ or simply RNZ, is a New Zealand public-service radio broadcaster and Crown entity that was established under the Radio New Zealand Act 1995. It operates news and cu ...
published insight that Orban's plans to cut taxes for large Hungarian families could be linked with fears of the Great Replacement.
Republic of Ireland
A 2019
Lidl
Lidl Stiftung & Co. KG (; ) is a German international discount retailer chain that operates over 11,000 stores across Europe and the United States. Headquartered in Neckarsulm, Baden-Württemberg, the company belongs to the Schwarz Group, w ...
advertisement that featured a white Irish woman, her
Afro-Brazilian
Afro-Brazilians ( pt, afro-brasileiros; ) are Brazilians who have predominantly African ancestry (see " preto"). Most members of another group of people, multiracial Brazilians or ''pardos'', may also have a range of degree of African ancestry. ...
partner and their
mixed race
Mixed race people are people of more than one race or ethnicity. A variety of terms have been used both historically and presently for mixed race people in a variety of contexts, including ''multiethnic'', ''polyethnic'', occasionally ''bi-eth ...
son was targeted by former journalist
Gemma O'Doherty
Gemma O'Doherty (born 24 August 1968) is an Irish far-right activist and conspiracy theorist. She began her career as a staff writer for the ''Irish Independent'', contributing articles on travel, the criminal justice system and corruption, but ...
as part of an attempt at a "Great Replacement." After facing online harassment the family decided to leave Ireland. The "Great Replacement" has also been used in Ireland in opposition to direct provision centres, used to house asylum seekers.
Writing in 2020,
Richard Downes
Richard Downes is an Irish broadcaster and journalist. He has worked for the Press Association, Reuters, the ''Financial Times'', the BBC and RTÉ. He was one of the presenters of ''Morning Ireland'' on RTÉ Radio 1 from 2002 until 2010 and was ...
said that "Rather than seeing the increase in non-Irish people living and making their lives here as being a normal part of a modern European country, some of the new nationalists see it as a conspiracy to overwhelm Ireland with foreigners. For many of them the conspirators include the Irish government,
NGOs
A non-governmental organization (NGO) or non-governmental organisation (see spelling differences) is an organization that generally is formed independent from government. They are typically nonprofit entities, and many of them are active in ...
, the EU and the UN. They believe that these organisations want to replace Irish people with brown and black people from abroad."
The term "great replacement" was also used when the
RTÉ News
RTÉ News and Current Affairs ( ga, Nuacht agus Cúrsaí Reatha RTÉ), also known as RTÉ News (''Nuacht RTÉ''), is the national news service provided by Irish public broadcaster Raidió Teilifís Éireann. Its services include local, nationa ...
featured the three first babies born in 2020, born to Polish, Black and Indian mothers; journalist
Fergus Finlay
Fergus Finlay (born 1 June 1950) is the former Chief Executive of the charity Barnardos in Ireland, leaving the post in 2018. He was a senior member of the Irish Labour Party and is also a weekly columnist with the ''Irish Examiner'' and the auth ...
saying "I don't care about the vulgar abuse, but I really do believe that these hatemongers should be prosecuted when they incite others to hatred and violence against people whose only crime is their skin colour or religion. I find it hard to understand why the State hasn't acted already against these cruel ideologues who think they can say whatever they like under the banner of
free speech
Freedom of speech is a principle that supports the freedom of an individual or a community to articulate their opinions and ideas without fear of retaliation, censorship, or legal sanction. The right to freedom of expression has been recogn ...
. They may be small in number now, and on the surface they may just seem bonkers, but we've been here before. Political movements have been built on hatred of the other, and we know the damage they have caused."
Garda Commissioner
The Garda Commissioner ( ga, Coimisinéir an Gharda Síochána) – officially known as the Commissioner of An Garda Síochána – is the head of the Garda Síochána, the national police force of the Republic of Ireland. The Garda Commissione ...
(national chief of police) Drew Harris spoke about far right groups in 2020, saying that "Irish groups elievingin the great replacement theory" had plans "to disrupt key State institutions and infrastructure. This included
Dublin Port
Dublin Port ( ga, Calafort Átha Cliath) is the seaport of Dublin, Ireland, of both historical and contemporary economic importance. Approximatively two-thirds of Ireland's port traffic travels via the port, which is by far the busiest on t ...
, high profile shopping areas such as Grafton Street in Dublin,
Dáil Éireann
Dáil Éireann ( , ; ) is the lower house, and principal chamber, of the Oireachtas (Irish legislature), which also includes the President of Ireland and Seanad Éireann (the upper house).Article 15.1.2º of the Constitution of Ireland r ...
and Government departments."
Italy
The current Italian Prime Minister
Giorgia Meloni
Giorgia Meloni (; born 15 January 1977) is an Italian politician who has been serving as the Prime Minister of Italy since 22 October 2022, the first woman to hold this position. A member of the Chamber of Deputies since 2006, she has led the ...
has endorsed the Great Replacement ideology. Deputy Prime Minister
Matteo Salvini
Matteo Salvini (; born 9 March 1973) is an Italian politician who has served as Deputy Prime Minister of Italy and Minister of Infrastructure and Transport since 2022. He has been Federal Secretary of Italy's Lega Nord (Northern League) party ...
of Italy (2018–2019) has repeatedly adopted the theme of the Great Replacement. In May 2016, two years before his election to office, he claimed "ethnic replacement is underway" in Italy in an interview with
Sky TG24
Sky TG24 is Italy's second all-news channel, owned by Sky Italia.
Launched on 31 July 2003, it provides non-stop rolling news, weather forecasts and sports stories with half-hourly updates.
Overview
Part of Sky TG24's programming is available ...
. Accusing nameless, well-funded organizations for importing workers that he named "farm slaves", he stated that there was a "lucrative attempt at genocide" of Italians.
The Netherlands
In April 2015, writing on the publishing website GeenStijl, scholar of Islam Hans Jansen used Great Replacement rhetoric, suggesting that it was an "undisputed" fact that among the
European Union
The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been ...
's governing elite there was a common consensus that Europeans were "no good and can be better replaced". In May 2015, Martin Bosma, a Dutch parliament Representative for the
Party for Freedom
The Party for Freedom ( nl, Partij voor de Vrijheid, PVV) is a nationalist, right-wing populist political party in the Netherlands.
Founded in 2006 as the successor to Geert Wilders' one-man faction in the House of Representatives, it won nine ...
(PVV), released his book . Invoking the conspiracy theory, Bosma wrote about a growing 'a new population' of immigrants which lent itself to an apparently 'post-racial Multicultural State of Salvation'.
In March 2017, Thierry Baudet, leader of the right wing Forum for Democracy (FvD) party, promoted the theory after he claimed that the country's so-called elite were deliberately "
homeopathic
Homeopathy or homoeopathy is a pseudoscientific system of alternative medicine. It was conceived in 1796 by the German physician Samuel Hahnemann. Its practitioners, called homeopaths, believe that a substance that causes symptoms of a dis ...
ally diluting" the Dutch population, in a speech about "national self-hatred". He said there was a plot to racially mix the ethnic Dutch with "all the people of the world", so that there would "never be a Dutchman again".
In January 2018, PVV Representative Martin Bosma endorsed the Great Replacement theory, and one of its key propagators, after meeting with Renaud Camus at a PVV demonstration in
Rotterdam
Rotterdam ( , , , lit. ''The Dam on the River Rotte'') is the second largest city and municipality in the Netherlands. It is in the province of South Holland, part of the North Sea mouth of the Rhine–Meuse–Scheldt delta, via the ''"N ...
and tweeting his support. Filip Dewinter, a leading member of the
Flemish
Flemish (''Vlaams'') is a Low Franconian dialect cluster of the Dutch language. It is sometimes referred to as Flemish Dutch (), Belgian Dutch ( ), or Southern Dutch (). Flemish is native to Flanders, a historical region in northern Belgium ...
secessionist Vlaams Belang party, who had traveled to the Netherlands on the day of the protest to meet with Camus, named him as a "visionary man" to the media.
Party for Freedom
The Party for Freedom ( nl, Partij voor de Vrijheid, PVV) is a nationalist, right-wing populist political party in the Netherlands.
Founded in 2006 as the successor to Geert Wilders' one-man faction in the House of Representatives, it won nine ...
politician Geert Wilders of the Netherlands supports the notion of a Great Replacement occurring in Europe. In October 2018, Wilders invoked the conspiracy theory, claiming the Netherlands was "being replaced with mass immigration from non-western Islamic countries" and
Rotterdam
Rotterdam ( , , , lit. ''The Dam on the River Rotte'') is the second largest city and municipality in the Netherlands. It is in the province of South Holland, part of the North Sea mouth of the Rhine–Meuse–Scheldt delta, via the ''"N ...
being "the port of Eurabia". He claimed 77 million, mainly Islamic immigrants would attempt to enter Europe over the course of half a century, and that
white Europeans
White is a racialized classification of people and a skin color specifier, generally used for people of European origin, although the definition can vary depending on context, nationality, and point of view.
Description of populations as " ...
would cease to exist unless they were stopped. In 2019, ''
The New York Times
''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...
'' reported how Camus's demographic-based alarmist theories help fuel Wilders and his
Party for Freedom
The Party for Freedom ( nl, Partij voor de Vrijheid, PVV) is a nationalist, right-wing populist political party in the Netherlands.
Founded in 2006 as the successor to Geert Wilders' one-man faction in the House of Representatives, it won nine ...
's nativist campaigning.
In September 2018, Dutch author
Paul Scheffer
Paul Scheffer (Nijmegen
Nijmegen (;; Spanish and it, Nimega. Nijmeegs: ''Nimwèège'' ) is the largest city in the Dutch province of Gelderland and tenth largest of the Netherlands as a whole, located on the Waal river close to the Ge ...
analyzed the Great Replacement and its political developments, suggesting that Forum for Democracy and
Party for Freedom
The Party for Freedom ( nl, Partij voor de Vrijheid, PVV) is a nationalist, right-wing populist political party in the Netherlands.
Founded in 2006 as the successor to Geert Wilders' one-man faction in the House of Representatives, it won nine ...
The far-right party Vox has been described as circulating the theory for its discourse about low natality rates in Spaniards compared to migrants. According to journalist Antonio Maestre of '' ElDiario.es'', such an ideology is shared between Vox and some extreme strains of
Catalan nationalism
Catalan nationalism is the ideology asserting that the Catalans are a distinct nation.
Intellectually, modern Catalan nationalism can be said to have commenced as a political philosophy in the unsuccessful attempts to establish a federal state i ...
who fear replacement by Spanish-speakers.
United Kingdom
According to November 2018 research from the
University of Cambridge
, mottoeng = Literal: From here, light and sacred draughts.
Non literal: From this place, we gain enlightenment and precious knowledge.
, established =
, other_name = The Chancellor, Masters and Schola ...
, 31% of
Brexit
Brexit (; a portmanteau of "British exit") was the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) at 23:00 GMT on 31 January 2020 (00:00 1 February 2020 CET).The UK also left the European Atomic Energy Community (EAE ...
voters believe in the conspiracy theory compared to 6% of British people who oppose Brexit.
In July 2019, left-wing English musician and activist
Billy Bragg
Stephen William Bragg (born 20 December 1957) is an English singer-songwriter and left-wing activist. His music blends elements of folk music, punk rock and protest songs, with lyrics that mostly span political or romantic themes. His music is ...
released a public statement which accused fellow singer-songwriter Morrissey of endorsing the theory. Bragg suggested "that Morrissey is helping to spread this idea—which inspired the Christchurch mosque murderer—is beyond doubt".
North America
Canada
YouTuber
Lauren Southern
Lauren Cherie Southern (born 16 June 1995) is a Canadian alt-right YouTuber, political activist and commentator. In 2015, Southern ran as a Libertarian Party candidate in the Canadian federal election. Southern worked for Rebel Media unti ...
of Canada has helped amplify the conspiracy theory. In 2017, Southern dedicated a video to the Great Replacement, gaining over half a million views on her channel, before it was deleted. 2018 mayoral candidate for Toronto
Faith Goldy
Faith Julia Goldy (born June 8, 1989), also known as Faith Goldy-Bazos, is a Canadian far-right, white nationalist political commentator, associated with the alt-right and white supremacy. She was a contributor to ''The Rebel Media'' and cover ...
has publicly embraced the replacement theory. In 2019, in the aftermath of the
Christchurch mosque shootings
On 15 March 2019, two consecutive mass shootings occurred in a terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. The attacks, carried out by a lone gunman who entered both mosques during Friday prayer, began at the Al Noor Mosq ...
in
Christchurch
Christchurch ( ; mi, Ōtautahi) is the largest city in the South Island of New Zealand and the seat of the Canterbury Region. Christchurch lies on the South Island's east coast, just north of Banks Peninsula on Pegasus Bay. The Avon Rive ...
,
New Zealand
New Zealand ( mi, Aotearoa ) is an island country in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. It consists of two main landmasses—the North Island () and the South Island ()—and over 700 List of islands of New Zealand, smaller islands. It is the ...
, ''
Vice
A vice is a practice, behaviour, or Habit (psychology), habit generally considered immorality, immoral, sinful, crime, criminal, rude, taboo, depraved, degrading, deviant or perverted in the associated society. In more minor usage, vice can refe ...
'' accused Goldy of routinely pushing the same ideas of birthrate declines and the population replacement of whites, found in the gunman's ''The Great Replacement'' manifesto. Long-time white nationalist Paul Fromm, when he co-opted the pre-1967 Red Ensign flag of Canada, referred to it as "the flag of the true Canada, the European Canada before the treasonous European replacement schemes brought in by the 1965 immigration policies".
In June 2019, columnist
Lindsay Shepherd
Lindsay Shepherd (born 7 December 1994) is a Canadian columnist who became known for her involvement, as a graduate student and teaching assistant, in an academic freedom controversy at Wilfrid Laurier University (WLU) in Waterloo, Ontario, i ...
claimed that "whites are becoming a minority" in the West, describing her assertion as "population replacement". She was criticized by Canadian MP Colin Fraser at a House of Commons justice committee for not denouncing the concept, while Nathaniel Erskine-Smith accused Shepherd of openly embracing the conspiracy theory.
United States
The
Great replacement in the United States In the United States, the far-right Great Replacement conspiracy theory holds that political elites are purposefully seeking to increase the number of racial minorities to displace the white American population. Supporters have used the conspiracy t ...
is the American version of a white nationalist far-right conspiracy theory that racial minorities are displacing the traditional white American population and taking control of the nation. Versions of the theory "have become commonplace" in the
Republican Party of the United States
The Republican Party, also referred to as the GOP ("Grand Old Party"), is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States. The GOP was founded in 1854 by anti-slavery activists who opposed the Kansas–Nebraska ...
, and have become a major issue of political debate. It also has stimulated violent responses including mass murders. It resembles the Great Replacement theory promoted in Europe, but has its origins in American nativism around 1900. According to Erika Lee, in 1894 the old stock Yankee upper-class founders of the
Immigration Restriction League
The Immigration Restriction League was an American nativist and anti-immigration organization founded by Charles Warren, Robert DeCourcy Ward, and Prescott F. Hall in 1894. According to Erika Lee, in 1894 the old stock Yankee upper-class founde ...
were, “convinced that Anglo-Saxon traditions, peoples, and culture were being drowned in a flood of racially inferior foreigners from Southern and Eastern Europe.”
Oceania
Australia
The media in Australia have covered former Senator
Fraser Anning
William Fraser Anning (born 14 October 1949) is an Australian former politician who was a senator for Queensland from November 2017 to June 2019. Anning is known for holding far-right, nativist, and anti-Muslim views, and has been criticis ...
of
Queensland
)
, nickname = Sunshine State
, image_map = Queensland in Australia.svg
, map_caption = Location of Queensland in Australia
, subdivision_type = Country
, subdivision_name = Australia
, established_title = Before federation
, established_ ...
and his endorsement of the Great Replacement conspiracy theory. In April 2019,
Reuters
Reuters ( ) is a news agency owned by Thomson Reuters Corporation. It employs around 2,500 journalists and 600 photojournalists in about 200 locations worldwide. Reuters is one of the largest news agencies in the world.
The agency was est ...
reported how Anning was amplifying replacement theory by suggesting that Muslims would "out-breed us very quickly". In May 2019, Anning alleged that white Australians would "fast become a minority" if they did not defend their "ethno-cultural identity".
New Zealand
The far right neo-Nazi youth group Action Zealandia has endorsed the Great Replacement theory, alleging that European identity in New Zealand is being threatened by economically-driven non-white migration. In addition, the group has promoted the pseudohistorical notion that white people settled in New Zealand before the arrival of the indigenous
Māori people
The Māori (, ) are the indigenous Polynesian people of mainland New Zealand (). Māori originated with settlers from East Polynesia, who arrived in New Zealand in several waves of canoe voyages between roughly 1320 and 1350. Over severa ...
. According to the journalist Marc Daalder, Action Zealandia is the successor to the Dominion Movement, a far right group that ceased its activities following the 2019
Christchurch mosque shootings
On 15 March 2019, two consecutive mass shootings occurred in a terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. The attacks, carried out by a lone gunman who entered both mosques during Friday prayer, began at the Al Noor Mosq ...
.
Influence on white nationalist terrorism
Implicit call to violence
Camus's use of strong terms like "colonization" and "Occupiers" to label non-European immigrants and their children have been described as implicit calls to violence. Scholars like
Jean-Yves Camus
Jean-Yves Camus (born 1958) is a French political scientist who specializes on nationalist movements in Europe.
Life and career
Born in 1958 to a Catholic and Gaullist family, Camus is an observant Jew and describes himself as part of "the ...
have argued that the "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory closely parallels the concept of " remigration", an euphemistic term for the forced deportation of non-white immigrants. "We shall not leave Europe, we shall make Africa leave Europe," Camus wrote in 2019 to define his political agenda for the European parliament elections. He has also used another euphemism, the "Great Repatriation", to refer to remigration.
According to historians Nicolas Bancel and Pascal Blanchard, along with sociologist Ahmed Boubeker, "the announcement of a civil war is implicit in the theory of the 'great replacement' ..This thesis is extreme—and so simplistic that it can be understood by anyone—because it validates a racial definition of the nation." Sceptical of Camus's description of second or third generation immigrants as being itself a contradiction in terms—"they do not migrate anymore, they are French"—demographer
Hervé Le Bras
Hervé Le Bras (born June 6, 1943) is a French demographer and historian.
Early life
Hervé Le Bras was born on June 6, 1943 in Paris, France. He graduated from the École Polytechnique.
Career
Le Bras did an internship in anthropology in Chad f ...
is also critical of their designation as a
fifth column
A fifth column is any group of people who undermine a larger group or nation from within, usually in favor of an enemy group or another nation. According to Harris Mylonas and Scott Radnitz, "fifth columns" are “domestic actors who work to un ...
in France or an "internal enemy".
Inspired attacks
Fears of the white race's extinction, and replacement theory in particular, have been cited by several accused perpetrators of
mass shooting
There is a lack of consensus on how to define a mass shooting. Most terms define a minimum of three or four victims of gun violence (not including the shooter or in an inner city) in a short period of time, although an Australian study from 200 ...
s between 2018, 2019 and 2022. While Camus has stated his own philosophy is a nonviolent one, analysts including Heidi Beirich of the
Southern Poverty Law Center
The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) is an American 501(c)(3) nonprofit legal advocacy organization specializing in civil rights and public interest litigation. Based in Montgomery, Alabama, it is known for its legal cases against white su ...
say the idea of white genocide has "undoubtedly influenced" American white supremacists, potentially leading to violence.
In October 2018, a gunman killed 11 people and injured 6 in an attack on the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The gunman believed Jews were deliberately importing non-white immigrants into the United States as part of a conspiracy against the white race.
Brenton Harrison Tarrant, the Australian terrorist responsible for the
mass shootings
There is a lack of consensus on how to define a mass shooting. Most terms define a minimum of three or four victims of gun violence (not including the shooter or in an inner city) in a short period of time, although an Australian study from 200 ...
Christchurch
Christchurch ( ; mi, Ōtautahi) is the largest city in the South Island of New Zealand and the seat of the Canterbury Region. Christchurch lies on the South Island's east coast, just north of Banks Peninsula on Pegasus Bay. The Avon Rive ...
, New Zealand, on 15 March 2019, that killed 51 people and injured 49, named his
manifesto
A manifesto is a published declaration of the intentions, motives, or views of the issuer, be it an individual, group, political party or government. A manifesto usually accepts a previously published opinion or public consensus or promotes a ...
''The Great Replacement'', a reference to Camus's book. In response, Camus condemned violence while reaffirming his desire for a "counter-revolt" against an increase in nonwhite populations.
In 2019, research by the
Institute for Strategic Dialogue
The Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) is a think tank founded in 2006 by Sasha Havlicek and George Weidenfeld that specialises in research and policy advice on hate, extremism, and disinformation. It is headquartered in London, United ...
showed over 24,000 social media mentions of the Great Replacement in the month before the Christchurch shootings, in comparison to just 3,431 mentions in April 2012. The use of the term spiked in April 2019 after the Christchurch mosque shootings.
Patrick Crusius, the suspect in the 2019 El Paso shooting, posted an online manifesto titled ''The Inconvenient Truth'' alluding to the "great replacement" and expressing support for "the Christchurch shooter" minutes before the attack. It spoke of a "Hispanic invasion of Texas" leading to "cultural and ethnic replacement" (alluding to the ''
Reconquista
The ' ( Spanish, Portuguese and Galician for "reconquest") is a historiographical construction describing the 781-year period in the history of the Iberian Peninsula between the Umayyad conquest of Hispania in 711 and the fall of the Na ...
'') as justifications for the shooting. Available vi ''The Irish Times'' .
The suspect accused in the
2022 Buffalo shooting
On May 14, 2022, a mass shooting occurred in Buffalo, New York, United States, at a Tops Friendly Markets supermarket in the East Side neighborhood. Ten people, all of whom were Black, were murdered and three were injured. The shooter, identi ...
listed the Great Replacement in a manifesto he had published prior to the attack. The suspect described himself as a
fascist
Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultra-nationalist political ideology and movement,: "extreme militaristic nationalism, contempt for electoral democracy and political and cultural liberalism, a belief in natural social hierarchy and the ...
, white supremacist, and antisemite.
See also
*
White demographic decline
White demographic decline is a decrease in the White populace as a percentage of the total population in a city, state, subregion, or nation. It has been recorded in a number of countries and smaller jurisdictions. For example, according to their n ...
*
Counter-jihad
Counter-jihad, also spelled counterjihad and known as the counter-jihad movement, is a self-titled political current loosely consisting of authors, bloggers, think tanks, street movements and campaign organisations all linked by apocalyptic bel ...
white genocide conspiracy theory
The white genocide, white extinction, or white replacement conspiracy theory is a White supremacy, white supremacist conspiracy theory which states that there is a deliberate plot, often Antisemitic canard, blamed on Jews, to promote miscegenat ...
that heavily revolves around a supposed plan to replace and racially mix white Europeans with non-whites through immigration by
Richard Coudenhove-Kalergi
Richard Nikolaus Eijiro, Count of Coudenhove-Kalergi (16 November 1894 – 27 July 1972) was an Austrian-Japanese politician, philosopher and Count of Coudenhove-Kalergi. A pioneer of European integration, he served as the founding president of ...
The Protocols of the Elders of Zion
''The Protocols of the Elders of Zion'' () or ''The Protocols of the Meetings of the Learned Elders of Zion'' is a fabricated antisemitic text purporting to describe a Jewish plan for global domination. The hoax was plagiarized from several ...
* ''
The Rising Tide of Color Against White World-Supremacy
''The Rising Tide of Color: The Threat Against White World-Supremacy'' (1920), by Lothrop Stoddard, is a book about racialism and geopolitics, which describes the collapse of white supremacy and colonialism because of the population growth amon ...
''
*
Yellow Peril
The Yellow Peril (also the Yellow Terror and the Yellow Specter) is a racist, racial color terminology for race, color metaphor that depicts the peoples of East Asia, East and Southeast Asia as an existential danger to the Western world. As a ...