The Black–Scholes or Black–Scholes–Merton model is a mathematical model for the dynamics of a
financial market
A financial market is a market in which people trade financial securities and derivatives at low transaction costs. Some of the securities include stocks and bonds, raw materials and precious metals, which are known in the financial market ...
containing
derivative
In mathematics, the derivative of a function of a real variable measures the sensitivity to change of the function value (output value) with respect to a change in its argument (input value). Derivatives are a fundamental tool of calculus. ...
investment instruments, using various underlying assumptions. From the parabolic partial differential equation in the model, known as the Black–Scholes equation, one can deduce the Black–Scholes formula, which gives a theoretical estimate of the price of European-styleoptions and shows that the option has a ''unique'' price given the risk of the security and its expected return (instead replacing the security's expected return with the
risk-neutral
In economics and finance, risk neutral preferences are preferences that are neither risk averse nor risk seeking. A risk neutral party's decisions are not affected by the degree of uncertainty in a set of outcomes, so a risk neutral party is indif ...
rate). The equation and model are named after economists
Fischer Black
Fischer Sheffey Black (January 11, 1938 – August 30, 1995) was an American economist, best known as one of the authors of the Black–Scholes equation.
Background
Fischer Sheffey Black was born on January 11, 1938. He graduated from Harvard ...
Robert C. Merton
Robert Cox Merton (born July 31, 1944) is an American economist, Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences laureate, and professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, known for his pioneering contributions to continuous-time finance, especia ...
, who first wrote an academic paper on the subject, is sometimes also credited.
The main principle behind the model is to
hedge
A hedge or hedgerow is a line of closely spaced shrubs and sometimes trees, planted and trained to form a barrier or to mark the boundary of an area, such as between neighbouring properties. Hedges that are used to separate a road from adjoin ...
the option by buying and selling the underlying asset in a specific way to eliminate risk. This type of hedging is called "continuously revised
delta hedging In finance, delta neutral describes a portfolio of related financial securities, in which the portfolio value remains unchanged when small changes occur in the value of the underlying security. Such a portfolio typically contains options and their ...
" and is the basis of more complicated hedging strategies such as those engaged in by
investment bank
Investment is the dedication of money to purchase of an asset to attain an increase in value over a period of time. Investment requires a sacrifice of some present asset, such as time, money, or effort.
In finance, the purpose of investing i ...
s and
hedge fund
A hedge fund is a pooled investment fund that trades in relatively liquid assets and is able to make extensive use of more complex trading, portfolio-construction, and risk management techniques in an attempt to improve performance, such as s ...
s.
The model is widely used, although often with some adjustments, by options market participants. The model's assumptions have been relaxed and generalized in many directions, leading to a plethora of models that are currently used in derivative pricing and risk management. The insights of the model, as exemplified by the Black–Scholes formula, are frequently used by market participants, as distinguished from the actual prices. These insights include
no-arbitrage bounds In financial mathematics, no-arbitrage bounds are mathematical relationships specifying limits on financial portfolio prices. These price bounds are a specific example of good–deal bounds, and are in fact the greatest extremes for good–deal bo ...
and risk-neutral pricing (thanks to continuous revision). Further, the Black–Scholes equation, a partial differential equation that governs the price of the option, enables pricing using
numerical methods
Numerical analysis is the study of algorithms that use numerical approximation (as opposed to symbolic manipulations) for the problems of mathematical analysis (as distinguished from discrete mathematics). It is the study of numerical methods th ...
when an explicit formula is not possible.
The Black–Scholes formula has only one parameter that cannot be directly observed in the market: the average future volatility of the underlying asset, though it can be found from the price of other options. Since the option value (whether put or call) is increasing in this parameter, it can be inverted to produce a "
volatility surface
Volatility smiles are implied volatility patterns that arise in pricing financial options. It is a parameter (implied volatility) that is needed to be modified for the Black–Scholes formula to fit market prices. In particular for a given expi ...
" that is then used to calibrate other models, e.g. for OTC derivatives.
History
Economists
Fischer Black
Fischer Sheffey Black (January 11, 1938 – August 30, 1995) was an American economist, best known as one of the authors of the Black–Scholes equation.
Background
Fischer Sheffey Black was born on January 11, 1938. He graduated from Harvard ...
and Myron Scholes demonstrated in 1968 that a dynamic revision of a portfolio removes the
expected return
The expected return (or expected gain) on a financial investment is the expected value of its return (of the profit on the investment). It is a measure of the center of the distribution of the random variable that is the return. It is calculated b ...
of the security, thus inventing the ''risk neutral argument''. They based their thinking on work previously done by market researchers and practitioners including
Louis Bachelier
Louis Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Bachelier (; 11 March 1870 – 28 April 1946) was a French mathematician at the turn of the 20th century. He is credited with being the first person to model the stochastic process now called Brownian motion, as part ...
,
Sheen Kassouf
Sheen T. Kassouf (11 August 1928 – 10 August 2005) was an economist from New York known for research in financial mathematics. In 1957 he married Gloria Daher in Brooklyn, New York. Kassouf received a PhD in economics from Columbia Universi ...
and
Edward O. Thorp
Edward Oakley Thorp (born August 14, 1932) is an American mathematics professor, author, hedge fund manager, and blackjack researcher. He pioneered the modern applications of probability theory, including the harnessing of very small correlatio ...
. Black and Scholes then attempted to apply the formula to the markets, but incurred financial losses, due to a lack of risk management in their trades. In 1970, they decided to return to the academic environment. After three years of efforts, the formula—named in honor of them for making it public—was finally published in 1973 in an article titled "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities", in the '' Journal of Political Economy''.
Robert C. Merton
Robert Cox Merton (born July 31, 1944) is an American economist, Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences laureate, and professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, known for his pioneering contributions to continuous-time finance, especia ...
was the first to publish a paper expanding the mathematical understanding of the options pricing model, and coined the term "Black–Scholes
options pricing
In finance, a price (premium) is paid or received for purchasing or selling options. This article discusses the calculation of this premium in general. For further detail, see: for discussion of the mathematics; Financial engineering for the impl ...
model".
The formula led to a boom in options trading and provided mathematical legitimacy to the activities of the
Chicago Board Options Exchange
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), located at 433 West Van Buren Street in Chicago, is the largest U.S. options exchange with an annual trading volume of around 1.27 billion at the end of 2014. CBOE offers options on over 2,200 compani ...
and other options markets around the world.
Merton and Scholes received the 1997
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel ( sv, Sveriges riksbanks pris i ekonomisk vetenskap till Alfred Nobels minne), is an economics award administered ...
for their work, the committee citing their discovery of the risk neutral dynamic revision as a breakthrough that separates the option from the risk of the underlying security. Although ineligible for the prize because of his death in 1995, Black was mentioned as a contributor by the Swedish Academy.
Fundamental hypotheses
The Black–Scholes model assumes that the market consists of at least one risky asset, usually called the stock, and one riskless asset, usually called the
money market
The money market is a component of the economy that provides short-term funds. The money market deals in short-term loans, generally for a period of a year or less.
As short-term securities became a commodity, the money market became a compon ...
, cash, or
bond
Bond or bonds may refer to:
Common meanings
* Bond (finance), a type of debt security
* Bail bond, a commercial third-party guarantor of surety bonds in the United States
* Chemical bond, the attraction of atoms, ions or molecules to form chemica ...
.
The following assumptions are made about the assets (which relate to the names of the assets):
* Riskless rate: The rate of return on the riskless asset is constant and thus called the
risk-free interest rate
The risk-free rate of return, usually shortened to the risk-free rate, is the rate of return of a hypothetical investment with scheduled payments over a fixed period of time that is assumed to meet all payment obligations.
Since the risk-free ra ...
.
* Random walk: The instantaneous log return of the stock price is an infinitesimal
random walk
In mathematics, a random walk is a random process that describes a path that consists of a succession of random steps on some mathematical space.
An elementary example of a random walk is the random walk on the integer number line \mathbb Z ...
with drift; more precisely, the stock price follows a
geometric Brownian motion
A geometric Brownian motion (GBM) (also known as exponential Brownian motion) is a continuous-time stochastic process in which the logarithm of the randomly varying quantity follows a Brownian motion (also called a Wiener process) with drift. It i ...
, and it is assumed that the drift and volatility of the motion are constant. If drift and volatility are time-varying, a suitably modified Black–Scholes formula can be deduced, as long as the volatility is not random.
* The stock does not pay a
dividend
A dividend is a distribution of profits by a corporation to its shareholders. When a corporation earns a profit or surplus, it is able to pay a portion of the profit as a dividend to shareholders. Any amount not distributed is taken to be re-i ...
.Although the original model assumed no dividends, trivial extensions to the model can accommodate a continuous dividend yield factor.
The assumptions about the market are:
* No arbitrage opportunity (i.e., there is no way to make a riskless profit).
* Ability to borrow and lend any amount, even fractional, of cash at the riskless rate.
* Ability to buy and sell any amount, even fractional, of the stock (this includes
short selling
In finance, being short in an asset means investing in such a way that the investor will profit if the value of the asset falls. This is the opposite of a more conventional "long" position, where the investor will profit if the value of the ...
).
* The above transactions do not incur any fees or costs (i.e.,
frictionless market
Frictionless can refer to:
* Frictionless market
* Frictionless continuant
* Frictionless sharing
* Frictionless plane
The frictionless plane is a concept from the writings of Galileo Galilei. In his 1638 '' The Two New Sciences'', Galileo prese ...
).
With these assumptions, suppose there is a derivative security also trading in this market. It is specified that this security will have a certain payoff at a specified date in the future, depending on the values taken by the stock up to that date. Even though the path the stock price will take in the future is unknown, the derivative's price can be determined at the current time. For the special case of a European call or put option, Black and Scholes showed that "it is possible to create a hedged position, consisting of a long position in the stock and a short position in the option, whose value will not depend on the price of the stock". Their dynamic hedging strategy led to a partial differential equation which governs the price of the option. Its solution is given by the Black–Scholes formula.
Several of these assumptions of the original model have been removed in subsequent extensions of the model. Modern versions account for dynamic interest rates (Merton, 1976),
transaction cost
In economics and related disciplines, a transaction cost is a cost in making any economic trade when participating in a market. Oliver E. Williamson defines transaction costs as the costs of running an economic system of companies, and unlike pro ...
s and taxes (Ingersoll, 1976), and dividend payout.
Notation
The notation used in the analysis of the Black-Scholes model is defined as follows (definitions grouped by subject):
General and market related:
: is a time in years; with generally representing the present year.
: is the annualized
risk-free interest rate
The risk-free rate of return, usually shortened to the risk-free rate, is the rate of return of a hypothetical investment with scheduled payments over a fixed period of time that is assumed to meet all payment obligations.
Since the risk-free ra ...
, continuously compounded (also known as the '' force of interest'').
Asset related:
: is the price of the underlying asset at time ''t'', also denoted as .
: is the drift rate of , annualized.
: is the standard deviation of the stock's returns. This is the square root of the
quadratic variation In mathematics, quadratic variation is used in the analysis of stochastic processes such as Brownian motion and other martingales. Quadratic variation is just one kind of variation of a process.
Definition
Suppose that X_t is a real-valued sto ...
of the stock's log price process, a measure of its volatility.
Option related:
: is the price of the option as a function of the underlying asset ''S'' at time ''t,'' in particular:
: is the price of a European call option and
: is the price of a European put option.
: is the time of option expiration.
: is the time until maturity: .
: is the
strike price
In finance, the strike price (or exercise price) of an option is a fixed price at which the owner of the option can buy (in the case of a call), or sell (in the case of a put), the underlying security or commodity. The strike price may be set ...
probability density function
In probability theory, a probability density function (PDF), or density of a continuous random variable, is a function whose value at any given sample (or point) in the sample space (the set of possible values taken by the random variable) ca ...
:
:
Black–Scholes equation
The Black–Scholes equation is a parabolic partial differential equation, which describes the price of the option over time. The equation is:
:
A key financial insight behind the equation is that one can perfectly
hedge
A hedge or hedgerow is a line of closely spaced shrubs and sometimes trees, planted and trained to form a barrier or to mark the boundary of an area, such as between neighbouring properties. Hedges that are used to separate a road from adjoin ...
the option by buying and selling the
underlying
In finance, a derivative is a contract that ''derives'' its value from the performance of an underlying entity. This underlying entity can be an asset, index, or interest rate, and is often simply called the "underlying". Derivatives can be use ...
asset and the bank account asset (cash) in such a way as to "eliminate risk". This hedge, in turn, implies that there is only one right price for the option, as returned by the Black–Scholes formula (see the next section).
Black–Scholes formula
The Black–Scholes formula calculates the price of Europeanput and call options. This price is
consistent
In classical deductive logic, a consistent theory is one that does not lead to a logical contradiction. The lack of contradiction can be defined in either semantic or syntactic terms. The semantic definition states that a theory is consistent ...
with the Black–Scholes equation. This follows since the formula can be obtained by solving the equation for the corresponding terminal and boundary conditions:
:
The value of a call option for a non-dividend-paying underlying stock in terms of the Black–Scholes parameters is:
:
The price of a corresponding put option based on
put–call parity
In financial mathematics, put–call parity defines a relationship between the price of a European call option and European put option, both with the identical strike price and expiry, namely that a portfolio of a long call option and a short pu ...
with
discount factor
Discounting is a financial mechanism in which a debtor obtains the right to delay payments to a creditor, for a defined period of time, in exchange for a charge or fee.See "Time Value", "Discount", "Discount Yield", "Compound Interest", "Efficient ...
is:
:
Alternative formulation
Introducing auxiliary variables allows for the formula to be simplified and reformulated in a form that can be more convenient (this is a special case of the Black '76 formula):
:
where:
is the discount factor
is the
forward price The forward price (or sometimes forward rate) is the agreed upon price of an asset in a forward contract. Using the rational pricing assumption, for a forward contract on an underlying asset that is tradeable, the forward price can be expressed in t ...
of the underlying asset, and
Given put–call parity, which is expressed in these terms as:
:
the price of a put option is:
: