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Stochastic Volatility
In statistics, stochastic volatility models are those in which the variance of a stochastic process is itself randomly distributed. They are used in the field of mathematical finance to evaluate derivative securities, such as options. The name derives from the models' treatment of the underlying security's volatility as a random process, governed by state variables such as the price level of the underlying security, the tendency of volatility to revert to some long-run mean value, and the variance of the volatility process itself, among others. Stochastic volatility models are one approach to resolve a shortcoming of the Black–Scholes model. In particular, models based on Black-Scholes assume that the underlying volatility is constant over the life of the derivative, and unaffected by the changes in the price level of the underlying security. However, these models cannot explain long-observed features of the implied volatility surface such as volatility smile and skew, w ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Volatility (finance)
In finance, volatility (usually denoted by "sigma, σ") is the Variability (statistics), degree of variation of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Volatility terminology Volatility as described here refers to the actual volatility, more specifically: * actual current volatility of a financial instrument for a specified period (for example 30 days or 90 days), based on historical prices over the specified period with the last observation the most recent price. * actual historical volatility which refers to the volatility of a financial instrument over a specified period but with the last observation on a date in the past **near synonymous is realized volatility, the square root of the realized variance, in turn c ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Stochastic Differential Equation
A stochastic differential equation (SDE) is a differential equation in which one or more of the terms is a stochastic process, resulting in a solution which is also a stochastic process. SDEs have many applications throughout pure mathematics and are used to model various behaviours of stochastic models such as stock prices,Musiela, M., and Rutkowski, M. (2004), Martingale Methods in Financial Modelling, 2nd Edition, Springer Verlag, Berlin. random growth models or physical systems that are subjected to thermal fluctuations. SDEs have a random differential that is in the most basic case random white noise calculated as the distributional derivative of a Brownian motion or more generally a semimartingale. However, other types of random behaviour are possible, such as jump processes like Lévy processes or semimartingales with jumps. Stochastic differential equations are in general neither differential equations nor random differential equations. Random differential equation ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Heston Model
In finance, the Heston model, named after Steven L. Heston, is a mathematical model that describes the evolution of the volatility of an underlying asset. It is a stochastic volatility model: such a model assumes that the volatility of the asset is not constant, nor even deterministic, but follows a random process. Mathematical formulation The Heston model assumes that ''St'', the price of the asset, is determined by a stochastic process, : dS_t = \mu S_t\,dt + \sqrt S_t\,dW^S_t, where the volatility \sqrt is given by a Feller square-root or CIR process, : d\nu_t = \kappa(\theta - \nu_t)\,dt + \xi \sqrt\,dW^_t, and W^S_t, W^_t are Wiener processes (i.e., continuous random walks) with correlation ρ. The value \nu_t, being the square of the volatility, is called the instantaneous variance. The model has five parameters: * \nu_0, the initial variance. * \theta, the long variance, or long-run average variance of the price; as ''t'' tends to infinity, the expected value of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
In statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a class of algorithms used to draw samples from a probability distribution. Given a probability distribution, one can construct a Markov chain whose elements' distribution approximates it – that is, the Markov chain's Discrete-time Markov chain#Stationary distributions, equilibrium distribution matches the target distribution. The more steps that are included, the more closely the distribution of the sample matches the actual desired distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to study probability distributions that are too complex or too highly N-dimensional space, dimensional to study with analytic techniques alone. Various algorithms exist for constructing such Markov chains, including the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. General explanation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods create samples from a continuous random variable, with probability density proportional to a known function. These samples can be used to e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
R (programming Language)
R is a programming language for statistical computing and Data and information visualization, data visualization. It has been widely adopted in the fields of data mining, bioinformatics, data analysis, and data science. The core R language is extended by a large number of R package, software packages, which contain Reusability, reusable code, documentation, and sample data. Some of the most popular R packages are in the tidyverse collection, which enhances functionality for visualizing, transforming, and modelling data, as well as improves the ease of programming (according to the authors and users). R is free and open-source software distributed under the GNU General Public License. The language is implemented primarily in C (programming language), C, Fortran, and Self-hosting (compilers), R itself. Preprocessor, Precompiled executables are available for the major operating systems (including Linux, MacOS, and Microsoft Windows). Its core is an interpreted language with a na ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Directed Set
In mathematics, a directed set (or a directed preorder or a filtered set) is a preordered set in which every finite subset has an upper bound. In other words, it is a non-empty preordered set A such that for any a and b in A there exists c in A with a \leq c and b \leq c. A directed set's preorder is called a direction. The notion defined above is sometimes called an . A is defined symmetrically, meaning that every finite subset has a lower bound. Some authors (and this article) assume that a directed set is directed upward, unless otherwise stated. Other authors call a set directed if and only if it is directed both upward and downward. Directed sets are a generalization of nonempty totally ordered sets. That is, all totally ordered sets are directed sets (contrast Partially ordered sets, ordered sets, which need not be directed). Join-semilattices (which are partially ordered sets) are directed sets as well, but not conversely. Likewise, Lattice (order), lattices are directed s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Maximum Likelihood
In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data. This is achieved by maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the observed data is most probable. The point in the parameter space that maximizes the likelihood function is called the maximum likelihood estimate. The logic of maximum likelihood is both intuitive and flexible, and as such the method has become a dominant means of statistical inference. If the likelihood function is differentiable, the derivative test for finding maxima can be applied. In some cases, the first-order conditions of the likelihood function can be solved analytically; for instance, the ordinary least squares estimator for a linear regression model maximizes the likelihood when the random errors are assumed to have normal distributions with the same variance. From the perspective of Bayesian inference, ML ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Fractional Brownian Motion
In probability theory, fractional Brownian motion (fBm), also called a fractal Brownian motion, is a generalization of Brownian motion. Unlike classical Brownian motion, the increments of fBm need not be independent. fBm is a continuous-time Gaussian process B_H(t) on , T/math>, that starts at zero, has expectation zero for all t in , T/math>, and has the following covariance function: :E _H(t) B_H (s)\tfrac (, t, ^+, s, ^-, t-s, ^), where ''H'' is a real number in (0, 1), called the Hurst index or Hurst parameter associated with the fractional Brownian motion. The Hurst exponent describes the raggedness of the resultant motion, with a higher value leading to a smoother motion. It was introduced by . The value of ''H'' determines what kind of process the ''fBm'' is: * if ''H'' = 1/2 then the process is in fact a Brownian motion or Wiener process; * if ''H'' > 1/2 then the increments of the process are positively correlated; * if ''H'' < 1/2 then the increments of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
GARCH
In econometrics, the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model is a statistical model for time series data that describes the variance of the current error term or innovation as a function of the actual sizes of the previous time periods' error terms; often the variance is related to the squares of the previous innovations. The ARCH model is appropriate when the error variance in a time series follows an autoregressive (AR) model; if an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is assumed for the error variance, the model is a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. ARCH models are commonly employed in modeling financial time series that exhibit time-varying volatility and volatility clustering, i.e. periods of swings interspersed with periods of relative calm (this is, when the time series exhibits heteroskedasticity). ARCH-type models are sometimes considered to be in the family of stochastic volatility models, although this ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Local Volatility
A local volatility model, in mathematical finance and financial engineering, is an option pricing model that treats Volatility (finance), volatility as a function of both the current asset level S_t and of time t . As such, it is a generalisation of the Black–Scholes model, where the volatility is a constant (i.e. a trivial function of S_t and t ). Local volatility models are often compared with stochastic volatility, stochastic volatility models, where the instantaneous volatility is not just a function of the asset level S_t but depends also on a new "global" randomness coming from an additional random component. Formulation In mathematical finance, the asset ''S''''t'' that Underlying, underlies a financial derivative is typically assumed to follow a stochastic differential equation of the form : dS_t = (r_t-d_t) S_t\,dt + \sigma_t S_t\,dW_t , under the risk neutral measure, where r_t is the instantaneous risk-free interest rate, risk free rate, giving an average ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Correlation
In statistics, correlation or dependence is any statistical relationship, whether causal or not, between two random variables or bivariate data. Although in the broadest sense, "correlation" may indicate any type of association, in statistics it usually refers to the degree to which a pair of variables are '' linearly'' related. Familiar examples of dependent phenomena include the correlation between the height of parents and their offspring, and the correlation between the price of a good and the quantity the consumers are willing to purchase, as it is depicted in the demand curve. Correlations are useful because they can indicate a predictive relationship that can be exploited in practice. For example, an electrical utility may produce less power on a mild day based on the correlation between electricity demand and weather. In this example, there is a causal relationship, because extreme weather causes people to use more electricity for heating or cooling. However, in g ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cox–Ross–Rubinstein Model
In finance, the binomial options pricing model (BOPM) provides a generalizable numerical method for the valuation of options. Essentially, the model uses a "discrete-time" ( lattice based) model of the varying price over time of the underlying financial instrument, addressing cases where the closed-form Black–Scholes formula is wanting, which in general does not exist for the BOPM. The binomial model was first proposed by William Sharpe in the 1978 edition of ''Investments'' (), and formalized by Cox, Ross and Rubinstein in 1979 and by Rendleman and Bartter in that same year. For binomial trees as applied to fixed income and interest rate derivatives see . Use of the model The Binomial options pricing model approach has been widely used since it is able to handle a variety of conditions for which other models cannot easily be applied. This is largely because the BOPM is based on the description of an underlying instrument over a period of time rather than a single point. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
