2024 Bulgarian Parliamentary Election

Early parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 9 June 2024, to elect members of the National Assembly. The election coincided with the European Parliament election on the same day.

This parliamentary election was initially scheduled to be held before 12 June 2027; however, the planned rotation agreed to by GERB and PP–DB failed to materialise in March 2024, and no other government could be formed.

GERB–SDS had the best results, winning nearly 24% of the vote and 68 seats, but it did not obtain a majority in the National Assembly. Voter turnout was 33%, which was the lowest turnout since the end of communist rule in 1989.

Background

Following several snap elections, the Bulgarian National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election. The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB–SDS narrowly coming in first place, above the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in 2022.

On 22 May 2023, the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.

Denkov resigned in accordance with the rotation agreement on 5 March, to allow Gabriel to become the new Prime Minister. On 20 March 2024, the planned government rotation and signing of a renewed government failed due to disagreements between the two alliances on the cabinet and breaking down of relations. Negotiations ensued across to form a new government, but failed to produce any governments that could reach a majority support. GERB rejected the chance to form a government. PP–DB made a limited attempt to respect the original rotation agreement. The final chance to form a government, chosen by president Rumen Radev, went to ITN, which was immediately rejected.

On 29 March, as per Article 98 of the constitution, the President appointed the Chairman of the National Audit Office, Dimitar Glavchev, as the candidate for caretaker prime minister. He was granted a one week deadline of until 6 April to propose the composition of the caretaker government.

Glavchev presented his proposal for the caretaker government on 5 April, accepted by the President following negotiations and scheduling the election for 9 June. Glavchev and his cabinet were inaugurated on 9 April by the National Assembly.

Election schedule

The Central Election Commission announced the campaign would begin at midday on 10 May and end at midnight on 7 June.

The current 49th Parliament was to stay in session at least until the election campaign begins, where a decision of election recess is expected to be adopted by Parliament. The 49th Parliament suspended its normal working process by an adopted election recess on 27 April. While on election recess the 49th Parliament could reconvene for an extraordinary sitting in exceptional circumstances. The 50th Parliament will replace the 49th Parliament as soon as the newly elected members are sworn in after the election.

On election day, polling opened at 07:00 and closed at 20:00.

Parties

Parliamentary parties

The table below lists the political party groups represented in the 49th National Assembly.

Contesting parties and coalitions

Below is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections.

Campaign

Campaign slogans and websites

The following list present the official campaign slogans and websites of parties that contested the 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election:

Allegations of corruption and improper political behaviour

Customs Agency scandal

On 3 April, the head of the Customs Agency, Petya Bankova, along with her deputy, and two others were arrested in relation to their alleged participation in an organised criminal group dealing blackmarket tobacco products. Following the arrests, Secretary of the Ministry of Interior Zhivko Kotsev announced his resignation, with PP–DB leaders suggesting this had been coerced. A day later, Kotsev withdrew his resignation in a joint-briefing with acting Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov where they repeated the claim.

Photos including the suspects and PP–DB-affiliated politicians were leaked, and Parliament formed a commission to investigate the scandal. Controversially, one of its aims was to investigate the role of PP co-leader Asen Vasilev in the affair. The commission heard claims that the PP–DB politicians were involved. These claims were disputed, and former PP interior minister Boyko Rashkov claimed those alleging the link were themselves involved in the scandal. Vasilev also appeared before the committee, denying any wrong doing or connections with the named suspects.

On 25 April, the committee published its report, which claimed to prove Asen Vasilev's role within the scheme.

The events of the scandal, despite occurring outside the election campaign period, were identified by some analysts as signalling the "beginning" of the pre-election campaign. Additionally, the scandal was used in the campaign, notably by ITN, in order to attack PP–DB.

"Turkish Stream" gas pipeline scandal

In early March, an alleged copy of the roadmap for the construction of the TurkStream (also known as the "Balkan Stream") gas pipeline through Bulgaria was released by the investigative newspaper, BG Elves. It suggested that the main role in the construction of the pipeline was undertaken by Russian firms, additionally it demonstrated that the pipeline's construction directly served Russian interests. The pipeline was given approval by the Third Borisov government.

PP–DB accused GERB of helping Russia build a new pathway for natural gas circumventing Ukraine, thus enabling the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A parliamentary committee was formed to investigate the leak, however, its work ended up being hindered due to partisan gridlock.

Audio-tape leaks

As had occurred previously during the government formation of the Denkov Government, audio recordings by senior PP–DB figures were allegedly leaked. One, published on the online newspaper Afera, was from a PP leadership meeting where they discussed illegal party finance methods. PP–DB representatives claimed this recording was taken out of context.

Borisov-Peevski billboard

As part of their campaign, PP–DB released a billboard containing the image of former Prime Minister Denkov, on one side, and the leaders of GERB and DPS, Borisov and Peevski, on the other, with a sign asking "who do you want to be prime minister?". The sign was promptly removed after a legal complaint by GERB, who claimed the billboard denigrated the person of Boyko Borisov. In a campaign meeting, Borisov called Denkov's behaviour as offensive, and claimed that this demonstrated that Denkov was unfit to be prime minister.

Public finances

During the election campaign, GERB, specifically Delyan Dobrev consistently criticised the policies of Asen Vasilev, accusing him of increasing the public debt and increasing inflation, while not doing enough to attract investment. Borisov declared that if GERB were to come to power they would implement a more "strict" fiscal policy.

PP–DB, on the other hand, defended the track record of Asen Vasilev, pointing to an increase in incomes. They further accused GERB of trying to add spending outside of that set aside by the budget in order to sabotage Bulgaria's entrance into the Eurozone.

Parties on the left, such as BSP, Levitsata and Solidary Bulgaria, generally supported the implementation of a progressive tax system, with BSP, for example, advocating for a tax break for all those under 26.

The right-wing coalition, Blue Bulgaria, called for less state involvement in the economy, with government finance instead being focused on healthcare, education and security.

Foreign policy

One of the key policy issues which dominated the elections was Bulgaria's position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A number of parties (specifically, Revival, BSP, Levitsata!, Solidary Bulgaria and Velichie) advocated for Bulgaria to not send lethal aid to Ukraine and supported paying Russia for gas.Snap election in Bulgaria: a worsening political crisis and a strengthening radical right
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)

Post-election government formation

Due to the continous political instability in Bulgaria, ever since the April 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election, post-election government formations has been one of the key topics of the election campaign.

GERB, shortly after the collapse of government negotiations following the Denkov government's resignation, had indicated that they would re-initiate negotiations with PP–DB, albeit conditional on a "new approach" from the PP–DB leadership. However, they became more hostile to PP–DB, especially after they supported a motion to oust the GERB speaker of the National Assembly. Boyko Borisov, GERB's leader, made clear that they would not govern solely with DPS. On 24 May, Borisov announced that GERB should take a "leading role" in any future government.

PP–DB expressed a willingness to negotiate a coalition government with GERB, however it excluded the possibility of any involvement from Delyan Peevski in a future government, thus excluding DPS. During an interview with bTV, former Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov stated that PP–DB would not form a government which involved either Boyko Borisov or Delyan Peevski.

Delyan Peevski, on his part, did not exclude his party's participation in either a GERB-led or PP–DB-led government, claiming he had a stable working relationship with both PP leader Kiril Petkov and Boyko Borisov.

A number of parties promised during the campaign period promised they would not enter any informal governing arrangements with GERB, DPS or PP–DB. Specifically, BSP leader, Korneliya Ninova, highlighted her party as the "only one" which had not engaged in any such deals with GERB. Solidary Bulgaria candidate, and Stand Up.BG leader, Maya Manolova promised that Solidary, if they entered parliament, would not govern with GERB, DPS or PP–DB.

Opinion polls

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude polls that chose "I will not vote" or "I am uncertain" options.

121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority.

Results

The results showed that no party attained a majority in the National Assembly, with GERB attaining a plurality of seats. Turnout was 33 percent, the lowest since the end of communist rule in 1989.

Aftermath

GERB–SDS leader Boyko Borisov thanked voters for the party's performance in the election. Kiril Petkov conceded and announced PP–DB would form a constructive opposition to the government once it is formed.

Both Korneliya Ninova, the leader of the BSP, and Hristo Ivanov, leader of DaB!, resigned following the results.

The new elected 50th Parliament replaced the 49th Parliament, when all elected members were sworn in on 19 June 2024.

Coalition negotiations

The leader of the DPS, Delyan Peevski, called for discussions between all "Euro-Atlantic" parties.

GERB said that they were seeking to form an "expert" government and dominate key ministries, including the office of Prime Minister. However, Borisov announced that he did not want the position. The BSP leadership suggested they could support an expert cabinet.

The Bulgarian newspaper ''Dnevnik'' set out the following scenarios:

The caretaker government in place ahead of the election, will continue as caretaker government after the election, until the point of time it can be replaced by a new government. As regulated by the Bulgarian Constitution, the first negotiation mandate to try form a new government will automatically be given to the largest elected party (GERB–SDS), and if this attempt fails the second negotiation mandate to try form a new government will then automatically be given to the second largest elected party (DPS). If no government can be formed within the first or the second mandate, then the Bulgarian President will give a third mandate to an elected parliamentary party at his discretion. If the third mandate also fails to form a government, then a caretaker government will be appointed by the President and new snap parliamentary elections shall be scheduled within two months after its inauguration.

Government formation

On 17 June, GERB began the negotiations with other parties within the first negotiation mandate, inviting all to discussions over the following two days. The framework for the first negotiation mandate, was the GERB–SDS proposal to form an expert cabinet on their mandate; and with GERB–SDS representatives occupying the positions of prime minister (although not being their party leader Boyko Borisov), foreign minister, and defence minister. PP–DB, BSP and VAZ refused to attend the negotiations, so there was only a meeting between GERB and DPS on the first day; both parties suggested they would be ready to form a government in coalition. On the second day, only ITN joined the talks, but only to declare they would neither back a government formed within the first nor the second negotiation mandate (led by GERB–SDS or DPS). ITN clarified they would under no circumstances support the formation of a GERB-DPS government or a GERB-DPS-ITN government; meaning that ITN would only support the formation of a politically neutral expert cabinet within the third negotiation mandate (preferably backed by all parties), and hoped to be selected as the party in charge of the third negotiation mandate to form such a government.

On 20 June, GERB, DPS and ITN all supported the GERB candidate for the Speaker of the National Assembly, Raya Nazaryan. One VAZ member also voted for her, but the rest of the party abstained. Borisov had declared that there would be new elections if she failed to be elected.

There were also reports that 5 or 6 of the Velichie deputies could split off to support a GERB-DPS government, which could give it a narrow majority.

On 24 June, President Rumen Radev started the consultations about the next steps in the government formation process, with all Parliamentary Groups was invited for meetings in the order of their elected size. GERB–SDS, DPS, PP–DB were consulted on 24 June; VAZ and BSP were consulted on 25 June; while ITN and Velichie were consulted on 26 June. PP–DB confirmed their initial stance, that they in no circumstances would be part of nor support a GERB/DPS government; but thought GERB/DPS now should be granted time by Radev to investigate if it was possible to form a government with other parliamentary parties under a first or second negotiation mandate - and in the event of formation of such a government then PP–DB would play the role of being a constructive opposition party. PP–DB remained silent on how they would position themselves in case a potential third negotiation mandate should be needed during the attempts to form a government, "because it would be wrong peaking about a third mandate considering that the first two mandates are still coming up" and as of now "everything possible should be done to fulfill the first or second mandate".

On 1 July, President Radev formally asked GERB-SDS to form a minority government with former National Assembly speaker Rosen Zhelyazkov as prime-minister designate. The minority government proposed by Zhelyazkov was largely composed of ministers from previous GERB governments, while also including several incumbent Caretaker Ministers. After the first mandate was received by Zhelyazkov, Boyko Borisov stated that if the government was approved without clear political support, it would only undertake urgent priority tasks before resigning. On 3 July, the National Assembly voted 138-98 to reject the proposed government.

References

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