Threatcasting
   HOME
*





Threatcasting
Threatcasting is a conceptual framework used to help multidisciplinary groups envision future scenarios. It is also a process that enables systematic planning against threats ten years in the future. Utilizing the threatcasting process, groups explore possible future threats and how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding undesired futures. Threatcasting is a continuous, multiple-step process with inputs from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and science fiction storytelling. These inputs inform the exploration of potential visions of the future. Once inputs are explored for impact and application, participants create a science fiction story (science fiction prototyping) based ten years in the future to add context around human activity. Science Fiction Prototyping consists of a future story about a person in a place doing a thing. The threatcasting process results in creation of many potential futur ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  


Science Fiction Prototyping
Science fiction prototyping (SFP) refers to the idea of using science fiction to describe and explore the implications of futuristic technologies and the social structures enabled by them. Similar terms are design fiction, speculative design, and critical design. History and progress The idea was introduced by Brian David Johnson in 2010 who, at the time, was a futurist at Intel working on the challenge his company faced anticipating the market needs for integrated circuits at the end of their 7–10 years design and production cycle. The roots for Science Fiction Prototyping can be traced back to two papers, the first by Callaghan et-al “''Pervasive Computing and Urban Development: Issues for the individual and Society''”, presented at the 2004 United Nations World Urban Forum which used short stories as a means to convey potential future threats of technology to society and the second, by Egerton et-al "''Using Multiple Personas In Service Robots To Improve Exploration Strat ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  


Science Fiction Prototyping
Science fiction prototyping (SFP) refers to the idea of using science fiction to describe and explore the implications of futuristic technologies and the social structures enabled by them. Similar terms are design fiction, speculative design, and critical design. History and progress The idea was introduced by Brian David Johnson in 2010 who, at the time, was a futurist at Intel working on the challenge his company faced anticipating the market needs for integrated circuits at the end of their 7–10 years design and production cycle. The roots for Science Fiction Prototyping can be traced back to two papers, the first by Callaghan et-al “''Pervasive Computing and Urban Development: Issues for the individual and Society''”, presented at the 2004 United Nations World Urban Forum which used short stories as a means to convey potential future threats of technology to society and the second, by Egerton et-al "''Using Multiple Personas In Service Robots To Improve Exploration Strat ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  


Creative Science Foundation
The Creative Science Foundation (CSf) is a non-profit organization, established on 4 November 2011 in London, England, that advocates a synergetic relationship between creative arts (e.g. writing, films, art, dance etc.) and sciences (e.g. engineering, business, socio-political etc.) as a means to fostering innovation. It is best known for its use of science fiction prototyping as an ideation, communication and prototyping tool for product innovation. The foundation's main modus-operandi are the organisation or sponsorship of vacation-schools, workshops, seminars, conferences, journals, publications and projects.Creative Science Foundatio''web pages'' accessed 25.5.15 See also * Futures studies * Micro-SFP * Science Fiction Poetry Association * Science fiction prototyping Science fiction prototyping (SFP) refers to the idea of using science fiction to describe and explore the implications of futuristic technologies and the social structures enabled by them. Similar terms are ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  


picture info

Futures Studies
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends. Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futurology concerns a much bigger and ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  




Technology Forecasting
Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits. Today, most countries are experiencing huge social and economic changes, which heavily rely on technology development. By analyzing these changes, government and economic institutions could make plans for future developments. However, not all of historical data can be used for technology forecasting, forecasters also need to adopt advanced technology and quantitative modeling from experts’ researches and conclusions. History Technology forecasting has existed more than a century, but it developed to an e ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  


picture info

Technology Roadmap
A technology roadmap is a flexible planning schedule to support strategic and long-range planning, by matching short-term and long-term goals with specific technology solutions. It is a plan that applies to a new product or process and may include using technology forecasting or technology scouting to identify suitable emerging technologies. It is a known technique to help manage the fuzzy front-end of innovation. It is also expected that roadmapping techniques may help companies to survive in turbulent environments and help them to plan in a more holistic way to include non-financial goals and drive towards a more sustainable development. Here roadmaps can be combined with other corporate foresight methods to facilitate systemic change. Developing a roadmap has three major uses.Garcia, M.L. and Bray, O.H. (1997). "Fundamentals of Technology Roadmapping". Strategic Business Development Department, Sandia National Laboratories/ref> It helps reach a consensus about a set of needs an ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  


Systems Thinking
Systems thinking is a way of making sense of the complexity of the world by looking at it in terms of wholes and relationships rather than by splitting it down into its parts. It has been used as a way of exploring and developing effective action in complex contexts, enablinsystems change Systems thinking draws on and contributes to systems theory and the system sciences. History Frameworks and methodologies Frameworks and methodologies for systems thinking include: * Critical systems thinking * Soft systems methodology * Systemic design * System dynamics * Viable system model Multi-method approach See also * Management cybernetics * Operational research Operations research ( en-GB, operational research) (U.S. Air Force Specialty Code: Operations Analysis), often shortened to the initialism OR, is a discipline that deals with the development and application of analytical methods to improve deci ... References Systems science Cybernetics Systems theory Systems th ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  


picture info

Strategic Foresight
Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight.Rohrbeck, Rene (2010) ''Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm'', Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag, Springer, Definition and idea Strategy is a high level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty. Strategic foresight happens when any planner uses scanned inputs, forecasts, alternative futures exploration, analysis and feedback to produce or alter plans and actions of the organization. Scenario planning plays a prominent role in strategic foresight. The flowchart to the right provides a process for classifying a phenomenon as a scenario in the intuitive logics tradition and differentiates it from many other techniques and approaches to planning. Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight on ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  


Scenario Planning
Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. In the most common application of the method, analysts generate simulation games for policy makers. The method combines known facts, such as demographics, geography and mineral reserves, with military, political, and industrial information, and key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental, and political ("STEEP") trends. In business applications, the emphasis on understanding the behavior of opponents has been reduced while more attention is now paid to changes in the natural environment. At Royal Dutch Shell for example, scenario planning has been described as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world prior to formulating ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  


Outline Of Futures Studies
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies: Futures studies (also called futurology) – study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and parallel to the field of history. History studies the past, futures studies considers the future. Futurology (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. General concepts * Accelerating change * Calculating demand forecast accuracy * Clarke's three laws * Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment * Causal layered analysi ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  




Futures Techniques
Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting, simulation, and visioning. Some of the anticipatory methods include, the delphi method, causal layered analysis, environmental scanning, morphological analysis, and scenario planning. Anticipatory thinking protocols Delphi method The Delphi method is a popular technique used in futurology. It was developed by Gordon and Helmer in 1953 at RAND. It can be defined as a method for structuring a group communication process, so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. It uses the iterative, independent questioning of a panel of experts to assess the timing, probability, significance and implications of factors, trends and events in the relation to the problem being cons ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]  


Foresight (futures Studies)
In futurology, especially in Europe, the term ''foresight'' has become widely used to describe activities such as: * critical thinking concerning long-term developments, * debate and for some futurists who are normative and focus on action driven by their values who may be concerned with effort to create wider participatory democracy. Foresight is a set of competencies and not a value system, however. * shaping the future, especially by influencing public policy. In the last decade, scenario methods, for example, have become widely used in some European countries in policy-making.van Steenbergen, Bart: Scenarios As a Powerful Tool for Public Policy. As presented at the Prague Workshop on Futures Studies Methodology, October 2005, http://ceses.cuni.cz/english/051019.php . To be published in the proceedings. The FORSOCIETY network brings together national Foresight teams from most European countries, and the European Foresight Monitoring Project is collating material on Foresight ac ...
[...More Info...]      
[...Related Items...]     OR:     [Wikipedia]   [Google]   [Baidu]