Threatcasting is a conceptual framework used to help multidisciplinary groups envision future scenarios. It is also a process that enables systematic planning against threats ten years in the future. Utilizing the threatcasting process, groups explore possible future threats and how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding undesired futures. Threatcasting is a continuous, multiple-step process with inputs from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and science fiction storytelling. These inputs inform the exploration of potential visions of the future.
Once inputs are explored for impact and application, participants create a science fiction story (
science fiction prototyping
Science fiction prototyping (SFP) refers to the idea of using science fiction to describe and explore the implications of futuristic technologies and the social structures enabled by them. Similar terms are design fiction, speculative design, an ...
) based ten years in the future to add context around human activity. Science Fiction Prototyping consists of a future story about a person in a place doing a thing. The threatcasting process results in creation of many potential futures scenarios—some futures are desirable while others are not. Identifying both types of futures (desirable and undesirable) will help the participant recognize which future to aim toward, and which to avoid. Utilizing the scenarios, participants plot actions necessary in the present and at various intervals working toward the ten year future scenario. These actions will help participants understand how to empower or disrupt the target future scenario. Flags (warning events) are also determined in order to map societal indicators onto the recommended path toward the targeted future. When identified flags appear in society, threatcasting participants map these back to the original forecast to see whether or not they are on track toward the target future scenario.
Origins
The notion of threatcasting can be traced back to Brian David Johnson, an applied futurist, who first began using threatcasting, also referred to as futurecasting, in 2011 and to George Hemingway of the Stratalis Group, who pioneered notion of futurecasting for corporate strategy and innovation industrial markets, including mining in the same year. Early adopters of threatcasting include the
United States Air Force Academy
The United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) is a United States service academy in El Paso County, Colorado, immediately north of Colorado Springs. It educates cadets for service in the officer corps of the United States Air Force and Uni ...
, the
Government of California
The government of California is the governmental structure of the U.S. state of California as established by the California Constitution. California uses the separation of powers system to structure its government. It is composed of three branche ...
, and the Army Cyber Institute at
West Point Military Academy
The United States Military Academy (USMA), also known metonymically as West Point or simply as Army, is a United States service academy in West Point, New York. It was originally established as a fort, since it sits on strategic high groun ...
. Official use of the term threatcasting is attributed to Brian David Johnson in a 2014 Gazette article “Drones, smart hydrants considered by experts looking at future of firefighting.”
Differences between threatcasting and strategic planning
Threatcasting is different from traditional
strategic planning
Strategic planning is an organization's process of defining its strategy or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to attain strategic goals.
It may also extend to control mechanisms for guiding the implementation of the st ...
and
scenario analysis
Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and gener ...
processes due to the identification of specific actions, indicators and concrete steps that can be taken today to disrupt, mitigate and recover from future threats.
Applications
The Army Cyber Institute at West Point in conjunction with
Arizona State University's Global Securities Initiative and the School for the Future of Innovation in Society have established a Threatcasting Lab to host and manage a Cyber Threatcasting Project which looks to envision future cyber threats ten years in the future. The first session of this collaborative group was held at West Point, NY in August 2016.
See also
*
Accelerating change
In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is the observed exponential nature of the rate of technological change in recent history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be ...
*
Backcasting
Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. ...
*
Creative science foundation
*
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual ...
*
Foresight (futures studies)
In futurology, especially in Europe, the term ''foresight'' has become widely used to describe activities such as:
* critical thinking concerning long-term developments,
* debate and for some futurists who are normative and focus on action driven ...
*
Futures studies
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will li ...
*
Futures techniques
Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting, si ...
*
*
Outline of futures studies
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies:
Futures studies (also called futurology) – study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie ...
*
Science fiction prototyping
Science fiction prototyping (SFP) refers to the idea of using science fiction to describe and explore the implications of futuristic technologies and the social structures enabled by them. Similar terms are design fiction, speculative design, an ...
*
Scenario planning
Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and gener ...
*
Strategic foresight
Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight.Rohrbeck, Rene (2010) ''Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Mo ...
*
Systems thinking
Systems thinking is a way of making sense of the complexity of the world by looking at it in terms of wholes and relationships rather than by splitting it down into its parts. It has been used as a way of exploring and developing effective actio ...
*
Technology roadmap
A technology roadmap is a flexible planning schedule to support strategic and long-range planning, by matching short-term and long-term goals with specific technology solutions. It is a plan that applies to a new product or process and may include ...
*
Technology forecasting
Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other ...
*
Trend analysis
Trend analysis is the widespread practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern. In some fields of study, the term has more formally defined meanings.
Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be ...
Notes
*Knapp, Alex. Brian David Johnson: Intel's Guide to the Future. Forbes, October 13, 2011.
*U.S. Air Force Academy Public Affairs. 'Future-casting' wildfires. United States Air Force Academy. February 7, 2014.
*Roeder, Tom. Drones, smart hydrants considered by experts looking at future of firefighting. The Gazette, February 21, 2014.
*Johnson, Brian David. Futurecasting, The Future of Wildfire.
*
#innovateearthquakes! FIT's day of technology innovation for disaster management. September 5, 2015.
*Lee, Ryan. "Threatcasting". IEEE Computer, vol. 49, no., pp. 94–95, Oct. 2016, doi:10.1109/MC.2016.305.
*Bennett, Michael and Johnson, Brian David. Dark Future Precedents.
[http://www.creative-science.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2016_CS16DarkFuturePrecedentswithHeaders.pdf ]
*Science Fiction, Futurism and Law. Intelligent Environments 2016. doi:10.3233/978-1-61499-690-3-506
*Petrov, Jan. Shmoocon 2017: Threat-Casting, Fake News, and Ransomware. Kraft Kennedy. February 6, 2017.
*Johnson, Brian David. A Widening Attach Plain. Army Cyber Institute. February, 2017
References
{{Reflist
Futures techniques
Strategy