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Foresight (futures Studies)
In futurology, especially in Europe, the term ''foresight'' has become widely used to describe activities such as: * critical thinking concerning long-term developments, * debate and for some futurists who are normative and focus on action driven by their values who may be concerned with effort to create wider participatory democracy. Foresight is a set of competencies and not a value system, however. * shaping the future, especially by influencing public policy. In the last decade, scenario methods, for example, have become widely used in some European countries in policy-making.van Steenbergen, Bart: Scenarios As a Powerful Tool for Public Policy. As presented at the Prague Workshop on Futures Studies Methodology, October 2005, http://ceses.cuni.cz/english/051019.php . To be published in the proceedings. The FORSOCIETY network brings together national Foresight teams from most European countries, and the European Foresight Monitoring Project is collating material on Foresight ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Futurology
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends. Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futurology concerns a much bigger and ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Accelerating Change
In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is the observed exponential nature of the rate of technological change in recent history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change. Early observations In 1910, during the town planning conference of London, Daniel Burnham noted, "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in the geometric widening of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on." And later on, "It is the argument with which I began, that a mighty change having come about in fifty years, and our pace of development having immensely accelerated, our sons and grandsons are going to demand and get results that would stagger us." In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemerali ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
European Journal Of Futures Research
The ''European Journal of Futures Research'' is an open access academic journal published by Springer Science+Business Media covering futures studies. It was established in 2013 and the editor-in-chief is Gerhard de Haan (Free University of Berlin). Abstracting and indexing The journal is abstracted and indexed in EBSCO databases, International Bibliography of Periodical Literature, ProQuest databases, Scopus, and the Social Sciences Citation Index. According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2018 impact factor The impact factor (IF) or journal impact factor (JIF) of an academic journal is a scientometric index calculated by Clarivate that reflects the yearly mean number of citations of articles published in the last two years in a given journal, as ... of 0.625. References External links *{{Official website, https://eujournalfuturesresearch.springeropen.com Futurology journals Publications established in 2013 English-language journals Springer S ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Futures & Foresight Science
''Futures & Foresight Science'' is an academic journal published by Wiley. The journal publishes articles dedicated to advancing methods that aid anticipating the future. The journal was established in 2019 by Professor George Wright (Editor in Chief), University of Strathclyde, Professor George Cairns (Associate Editor), Queensland University of Technology and Professor Heiko von der Gracht (Associate Editor), Steinbeis University Berlin. Areas of interest * Scenario planning * Delphi method * Forecasting * Expert judgement in anticipating the future * Combining group and individual judgements * Combinations of futures methodologies * Corporate Foresight See also * ''Technological Forecasting and Social Change'' * ''Futures'' * ''Journal of Futures Studies The ''Journal of Futures Studies'' (JFS) is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal in the discipline of futures studies. It is published by Tamkang University Press on behalf of the Graduate Institute of Futures ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Futures (journal)
''Futures'' is an international, peer-reviewed, multidisciplinary journal concerned with futures studies. It is published by Elsevier. The editor is Ted Fuller. It is one of the journals that in the 1970s contributed to creating a debate on the topics of sustainable development. See also * Technological Forecasting and Social Change * Foresight * Futures & Foresight Science *Journal of Futures Studies *European Journal of Futures Research The ''European Journal of Futures Research'' is an open access academic journal published by Springer Science+Business Media covering futures studies. It was established in 2013 and the editor-in-chief is Gerhard de Haan (Free University of Berlin) ... References External linksElsevier publishing Futurology journals English-language journals {{social-science-journal-stub ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Technological Forecasting And Social Change
''Technological Forecasting and Social Change'' (formerly ''Technological Forecasting'') is a peer-reviewed academic journal published by Elsevier which discusses futures studies, technology assessment, and technological forecasting. Articles focus on methodology and actual practice, and have been published since 1969. The editors-in-chief are Scott Cunningham (University of Strathclyde) and Mei-Chih Hu (National Tsing Hua University). According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2021 impact factor of 10.884. See also * ''Futures'' * ''Foresight'' *'' Futures & Foresight Science'' *''Journal of Futures Studies The ''Journal of Futures Studies'' (JFS) is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal in the discipline of futures studies. It is published by Tamkang University Press on behalf of the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies at Tamkang University i ...'' References External links * Futurology journals Elsevier academic journals English-language ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Technology Scouting
Technology scouting is an element of technology management in which :(1) emerging technologies are identified, :(2) technology related information is channeled into an organization, and :(3) supports the acquisition of technologies. It is a starting point of a long term and interactive matching process between external technologies and internal requirements of an existing organization for strategic purposes. This matching may also be aided by technology roadmapping. Technology scouting is also known to be part of competitive intelligence, which firms apply as a tool of competitive strategy. It can also be regarded as a method of technology forecasting or in the broader context also an element of corporate foresight.Rohrbeck, Rene (2010) ''Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm'', Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg and New York, Technology scouting may also be applied as an element of an open innovation approach. Technology scouting is seen as ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Technology Forecasting
Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits. Today, most countries are experiencing huge social and economic changes, which heavily rely on technology development. By analyzing these changes, government and economic institutions could make plans for future developments. However, not all of historical data can be used for technology forecasting, forecasters also need to adopt advanced technology and quantitative modeling from experts’ researches and conclusions. History Technology forecasting has existed more than a century, but it developed to an e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Strategic Foresight
Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight.Rohrbeck, Rene (2010) ''Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm'', Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag, Springer, Definition and idea Strategy is a high level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty. Strategic foresight happens when any planner uses scanned inputs, forecasts, alternative futures exploration, analysis and feedback to produce or alter plans and actions of the organization. Scenario planning plays a prominent role in strategic foresight. The flowchart to the right provides a process for classifying a phenomenon as a scenario in the intuitive logics tradition and differentiates it from many other techniques and approaches to planning. Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Reference Class Forecasting
Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics. Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. Discussion of which reference class to use when forecasting a given situation is known as the reference class problem. Overview Kahneman and Tversky Decision Research Technical Report PTR-1042-77-6. In found that human judgment is generally optimistic due to overconfidence and insufficient consideration of distributional information about outcomes. People tend to underestimate the costs, completion times, and risks of planned actions, whereas they tend to overestimate the benefits ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Optimism Bias
Optimism bias (or the optimistic bias) is a cognitive bias that causes someone to believe that they themselves are less likely to experience a negative event. It is also known as unrealistic optimism or comparative optimism. Optimism bias is common and transcends gender, ethnicity, nationality, and age.O’Sullivan, Owen P. (2015)The neural basis of always looking on the bright side.''Dialogues in Philosophy, Mental and Neuro Sciences'', 8(1):11–15. Optimistic biases are even reported in non-human animals such as rats and birds. However, autistic people are less susceptible to optimistic biases. Four factors can cause a person to be optimistically biased: their desired end state, their cognitive mechanisms, the information they have about themselves versus others, and overall mood. The optimistic bias is seen in a number of situations. For example: people believing that they are less at risk of being a crime victim, smokers believing that they are less likely to contract lung can ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Horizon Scanning
Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice. Such domains include agriculture, environmental studies, health care, biosecurity, and food safety. Some sources mention HS as an alternative name for environmental scanning (ES), or view HS as a subset of ES, or at least suggest ES to have a similar goal to HS. In summary, ES has key differences to HS. ES is rather concerned to provide industry specific information for short-term decision making in a competitive environment. Etymology One of the first usages of the term ''horizon scanning'' as related to futures studies appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in information technology and forecasting the year 2005. Then, ''horizon scanning'' was used to name detection and early evaluation of health care technologies in a European work ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
