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Multilevel Regression With Poststratification
Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) is a statistical technique used for correcting model estimates for known differences between a sample population (the population of the data one has), and a target population (a population one wishes to estimate for). The poststratification refers to the process of adjusting the estimates, essentially a weighted average of estimates from all possible combinations of attributes (for example age and sex). Each combination is sometimes called a "cell". The multilevel regression is the use of a multilevel model to smooth noisy estimates in the cells with too little data by using overall or nearby averages. One application is estimating preferences in sub-regions (e.g., states, individual constituencies) based on individual-level survey data gathered at other levels of aggregation (e.g., national surveys). Individual seat polls can struggle to have a high enough sample size, while MRPs have such large sample sizes that even smal ...
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Statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of statistical survey, surveys and experimental design, experiments. When census data (comprising every member of the target population) cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey sample (statistics), samples. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can reasonably extend from the sample ...
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Nonparametric Regression
Nonparametric regression is a form of regression analysis where the predictor does not take a predetermined form but is completely constructed using information derived from the data. That is, no parametric equation is assumed for the relationship between predictors and dependent variable. A larger sample size is needed to build a nonparametric model having a level of uncertainty as a parametric model because the data must supply both the model structure and the parameter estimates. Definition Nonparametric regression assumes the following relationship, given the random variables X and Y: : \mathbb \mid X=x= m(x), where m(x) is some deterministic function. Linear regression is a restricted case of nonparametric regression where m(x) is assumed to be a linear function of the data. Sometimes a slightly stronger assumption of additive noise is used: : Y = m(X) + U, where the random variable U is the `noise term', with mean 0. Without the assumption that m belongs to a specific ...
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Reuters
Reuters ( ) is a news agency owned by Thomson Reuters. It employs around 2,500 journalists and 600 photojournalists in about 200 locations worldwide writing in 16 languages. Reuters is one of the largest news agencies in the world. The agency was established in London in 1851 by Paul Reuter. The Thomson Corporation of Canada acquired the agency in a 2008 corporate merger, resulting in the formation of the Thomson Reuters Corporation. In December 2024, Reuters was ranked as the 27th most visited news site in the world, with over 105 million monthly readers. History 19th century Paul Julius Reuter worked at a book-publishing firm in Berlin and was involved in distributing radical pamphlets at the beginning of the Revolutions of 1848. These publications brought much attention to Reuter, who in 1850 developed a prototype news service in Aachen using homing pigeons and electric telegraphy from 1851 on, in order to transmit messages between Brussels and Aachen, in what today is Aa ...
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2017 United Kingdom General Election
The 2017 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 8 June 2017, two years after the 2015 United Kingdom general election, previous general election in 2015; it was the first since 1992 United Kingdom general election, 1992 to be held on a day that did not coincide with any local elections. The governing Conservative Party (UK), Conservative Party led by Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Theresa May remained the largest single party in the House of Commons but lost its small overall majority, resulting in the formation of a Conservative minority government with a confidence and supply Conservative–DUP agreement, agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland. The Conservative Party, which had governed as a senior Cameron–Clegg coalition, coalition partner from 2010 United Kingdom general election, 2010 and as a single-party majority government from 2015 United Kingdom general election, 2015, was led by May as Prime Ministe ...
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YouGov
YouGov plc is a international Internet-based market research and data analytics firm headquartered in the UK with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. History 2000–2010 Stephan Shakespeare and Nadhim Zahawi formed YouGov in the United Kingdom in May 2000. In 2001, they engaged BBC political analyst Peter Kellner, who became chairman and then, from 2007 to 2016, President. In its initial years, YouGov hired a number a notable commentators to write columns on its website, including future UK prime minister Boris Johnson, and presenter John Humphrys. In April 2005, YouGov became a public company listed on the Alternative Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange. In the same year, the company launched BrandIndex which tracks public opinion on consumer brands using daily polls. In 2006, YouGov began expanding outside the UK through acquisitions and acquired Dubai-based research firm Siraj for $1.2 million plus an eventual earn ...
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Epidemiology
Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and Risk factor (epidemiology), determinants of health and disease conditions in a defined population, and application of this knowledge to prevent diseases. It is a cornerstone of public health, and shapes policy decisions and evidence-based practice by identifying Risk factor (epidemiology), risk factors for disease and targets for preventive healthcare. Epidemiologists help with study design, collection, and statistical analysis of data, amend interpretation and dissemination of results (including peer review and occasional systematic review). Epidemiology has helped develop methodology used in clinical research, public health studies, and, to a lesser extent, basic research in the biological sciences. Major areas of epidemiological study include disease causation, transmission (medicine), transmission, outbreak investigation, disease surveillance, environmental epidemiology, forensic ...
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2012 US Presidential Election
Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 6, 2012. Incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Joe Biden, were elected to a second term. They defeated the Republican ticket of former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney and U.S. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. As the incumbent President, Obama secured the Democratic nomination without serious opposition. The Republicans experienced a competitive primary. Romney was consistently competitive in the polls and won the support of many party leaders, but he faced challenges from a number of more conservative contenders. Romney secured his party's nomination in May, defeating former senator Rick Santorum, former Speaker of the House and Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich, and Texas congressman Ron Paul, among other candidates. The campaigns focused heavily on domestic issues, and debate centered largely around sound responses to the Great Recession alon ...
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Xbox
Xbox is a video gaming brand that consists of four main home video game console lines, as well as application software, applications (games), the streaming media, streaming service Xbox Cloud Gaming, and online services such as the Xbox network and Xbox Game Pass. The brand is produced by Microsoft Gaming, a division of Microsoft. The brand was 2001 in video gaming#Video game consoles, first introduced in the United States in November 2001, with the launch of the original Xbox console. The Xbox branding was formerly, from 2012 to 2015, used as Microsoft's digital media entertainment brand replacing Zune. In 2022, Microsoft expanded its gaming business and reorganized Xbox to become part of its newly formed Microsoft Gaming division. Under Microsoft Gaming, Xbox's first-party publishers are Xbox Game Studios, ZeniMax Media (Bethesda Softworks), and Activision Blizzard (Activision, Blizzard Entertainment, and King (company), King), who own numerous studios and successful franchis ...
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Andrew Gelman
Andrew Eric Gelman (born February 11, 1965) is an American statistician who is Higgins Professor of Statistics and a professor of political science at Columbia University. Gelman attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as a National Merit Scholar, and graduated with Bachelor of Science degrees in mathematics and in physics in 1986. He then received a Master of Science degree in 1987 and a Doctor of Philosophy in 1990, both in statistics from Harvard University, under the supervision of Donald Rubin. Career Gelman is the Higgins Professor of Statistics and Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University. He is a major contributor to statistical philosophy and methods especially in Bayesian statistics and hierarchical models. He is one of the leaders of the development of the statistical programming framework Stan. Perspective on Statistical Inference and Hypothesis Testing Gelman's approach to statistical in ...
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Multilevel Model
Multilevel models are statistical models of parameters that vary at more than one level. An example could be a model of student performance that contains measures for individual students as well as measures for classrooms within which the students are grouped. These models can be seen as generalizations of linear models (in particular, linear regression), although they can also extend to non-linear models. These models became much more popular after sufficient computing power and software became available. Multilevel models are particularly appropriate for research designs where data for participants are organized at more than one level (i.e., nested data). The units of analysis are usually individuals (at a lower level) who are nested within contextual/aggregate units (at a higher level). While the lowest level of data in multilevel models is usually an individual, repeated measurements of individuals may also be examined. As such, multilevel models provide an alternative type ...
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