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The future is the
time Time is the continuous progression of existence that occurs in an apparently irreversible process, irreversible succession from the past, through the present, and into the future. It is a component quantity of various measurements used to sequ ...
after the
past The past is the set of all Spacetime#Definitions, events that occurred before a given point in time. The past is contrasted with and defined by the present and the future. The concept of the past is derived from the linear fashion in which human ...
and
present The present is the period of time that is occurring now. The present is contrasted with the past, the period of time that has already occurred; and the future, the period of time that has yet to occur. It is sometimes represented as a hyperplan ...
. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the apparent nature of
reality Reality is the sum or aggregate of everything in existence; everything that is not imagination, imaginary. Different Culture, cultures and Academic discipline, academic disciplines conceptualize it in various ways. Philosophical questions abo ...
and the unavoidability of the future, everything that currently exists and will exist can be categorized as either permanent, meaning that it will exist forever, or temporary, meaning that it will end. In the Occidental view, which uses a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the projected timeline that is anticipated to occur. In
special relativity In physics, the special theory of relativity, or special relativity for short, is a scientific theory of the relationship between Spacetime, space and time. In Albert Einstein's 1905 paper, Annus Mirabilis papers#Special relativity, "On the Ele ...
, the future is considered absolute future, or the future
light cone In special and general relativity, a light cone (or "null cone") is the path that a flash of light, emanating from a single Event (relativity), event (localized to a single point in space and a single moment in time) and traveling in all direct ...
. In the
philosophy of time Philosophy ('love of wisdom' in Ancient Greek) is a systematic study of general and fundamental questions concerning topics like existence, reason, knowledge, value, mind, and language. It is a rational and critical inquiry that reflects on ...
, presentism is the
belief A belief is a subjective Attitude (psychology), attitude that something is truth, true or a State of affairs (philosophy), state of affairs is the case. A subjective attitude is a mental state of having some Life stance, stance, take, or opinion ...
that only the present exists and the future and the past are unreal. Religions consider the future when they address issues such as
karma Karma (, from , ; ) is an ancient Indian concept that refers to an action, work, or deed, and its effect or consequences. In Indian religions, the term more specifically refers to a principle of cause and effect, often descriptively called ...
, life after death, and eschatologies that study what the end of time and the end of the world will be. Religious figures such as
prophet In religion, a prophet or prophetess is an individual who is regarded as being in contact with a divinity, divine being and is said to speak on behalf of that being, serving as an intermediary with humanity by delivering messages or teachings ...
s and diviners have claimed to see into the future. Future studies, or
futurology Futures studies, futures research or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and wor ...
, is the science, art, and practice of postulating possible futures. Modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and
probability Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an e ...
, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.
Predeterminism Predeterminism is the philosophy that all events of history, past, present and future, have been already decided or are already known (by God, fate, or some other force), including human actions. Predeterminism is closely related to determinism. ...
is the belief that the past, present, and future have been already decided. The concept of the future has been explored extensively in cultural production, including
art Art is a diverse range of cultural activity centered around ''works'' utilizing creative or imaginative talents, which are expected to evoke a worthwhile experience, generally through an expression of emotional power, conceptual ideas, tec ...
movements and genres devoted entirely to its elucidation, such as the 20th-century movement
futurism Futurism ( ) was an Art movement, artistic and social movement that originated in Italy, and to a lesser extent in other countries, in the early 20th century. It emphasized dynamism, speed, technology, youth, violence, and objects such as the ...
.


In physics

In physics, time is the fourth dimension. Physicists argue that
spacetime In physics, spacetime, also called the space-time continuum, is a mathematical model that fuses the three dimensions of space and the one dimension of time into a single four-dimensional continuum. Spacetime diagrams are useful in visualiz ...
can be understood as a sort of stretchy fabric that bends due to forces such as gravity. In
classical physics Classical physics refers to physics theories that are non-quantum or both non-quantum and non-relativistic, depending on the context. In historical discussions, ''classical physics'' refers to pre-1900 physics, while '' modern physics'' refers to ...
the future is just a half of the timeline, which is the same for all observers. In
special relativity In physics, the special theory of relativity, or special relativity for short, is a scientific theory of the relationship between Spacetime, space and time. In Albert Einstein's 1905 paper, Annus Mirabilis papers#Special relativity, "On the Ele ...
the flow of time is relative to the observer's
frame of reference In physics and astronomy, a frame of reference (or reference frame) is an abstract coordinate system, whose origin (mathematics), origin, orientation (geometry), orientation, and scale (geometry), scale have been specified in physical space. It ...
. The faster an observer is traveling away from a reference object, the slower that object seems to move through time. Hence, the future is not an objective notion anymore. A more modern notion is absolute future, or the future
light cone In special and general relativity, a light cone (or "null cone") is the path that a flash of light, emanating from a single Event (relativity), event (localized to a single point in space and a single moment in time) and traveling in all direct ...
. While a person can move backward or forwards in the three spatial dimensions, many physicists argue you are only able to move forward in time. One of the outcomes of Special Relativity Theory is that a person can travel into the future (but never come back) by traveling at very high speeds. While this effect is negligible under ordinary conditions, space travel at very high speeds can change the flow of time considerably. As depicted in many
science fiction Science fiction (often shortened to sci-fi or abbreviated SF) is a genre of speculative fiction that deals with imaginative and futuristic concepts. These concepts may include information technology and robotics, biological manipulations, space ...
stories and movies (e.g. ''
Déjà Vu ''Déjà vu'' ( , ; "already seen") is the phenomenon of feeling like one has lived through the present situation in the past.Schnider, Armin. (2008). ''The Confabulating Mind: How the Brain Creates Reality''. Oxford University Press. pp. 167–1 ...
''), a person traveling for even a short time at near light speed will return to an Earth that is many years in the future. Some physicists claim that by using a
wormhole A wormhole is a hypothetical structure that connects disparate points in spacetime. It can be visualized as a tunnel with two ends at separate points in spacetime (i.e., different locations, different points in time, or both). Wormholes are base ...
to connect two regions of spacetime a person could theoretically travel in time. Physicist
Michio Kaku Michio Kaku (; ; born January 24, 1947) is an American theoretical physicist, Science communication, science communicator, futurologist, and writer of popular-science. He is a professor of theoretical physics at the City College of New York and ...
points out that to power this hypothetical time machine and "punch a hole into the fabric of space-time" would require the energy of a star. Another theory is that a person could travel in time with cosmic strings.


In philosophy

In the
philosophy of time Philosophy ('love of wisdom' in Ancient Greek) is a systematic study of general and fundamental questions concerning topics like existence, reason, knowledge, value, mind, and language. It is a rational and critical inquiry that reflects on ...
, presentism is the
belief A belief is a subjective Attitude (psychology), attitude that something is truth, true or a State of affairs (philosophy), state of affairs is the case. A subjective attitude is a mental state of having some Life stance, stance, take, or opinion ...
that only the present exists, and the future and
past The past is the set of all Spacetime#Definitions, events that occurred before a given point in time. The past is contrasted with and defined by the present and the future. The concept of the past is derived from the linear fashion in which human ...
are unreal. Past and future "entities" are construed as
logic Logic is the study of correct reasoning. It includes both formal and informal logic. Formal logic is the study of deductively valid inferences or logical truths. It examines how conclusions follow from premises based on the structure o ...
al constructions or fictions. The opposite of presentism is ' eternalism', which is the belief that things in the past and things yet to come exist eternally. Another view (not held by many philosophers) is sometimes called the ' growing block'
theory A theory is a systematic and rational form of abstract thinking about a phenomenon, or the conclusions derived from such thinking. It involves contemplative and logical reasoning, often supported by processes such as observation, experimentation, ...
of time—which postulates that the past and present exist, but the future does not. Presentism is compatible with Galilean relativity, in which time is independent of space, but is probably incompatible with Lorentzian/
Albert Einstein Albert Einstein (14 March 187918 April 1955) was a German-born theoretical physicist who is best known for developing the theory of relativity. Einstein also made important contributions to quantum mechanics. His mass–energy equivalence f ...
ian relativity in conjunction with certain other philosophical
theses A thesis (: theses), or dissertation (abbreviated diss.), is a document submitted in support of candidature for an academic degree or professional qualification presenting the author's research and findings.International Standard ISO 7144: D ...
that many find uncontroversial.
Saint Augustine Augustine of Hippo ( , ; ; 13 November 354 – 28 August 430) was a theologian and philosopher of Berbers, Berber origin and the bishop of Hippo Regius in Numidia (Roman province), Numidia, Roman North Africa. His writings deeply influenced th ...
proposed that the present is a knife edge between the past and the future and could not contain any extended period of time. Contrary to Saint Augustine, some philosophers propose that conscious experience is extended in time. For instance,
William James William James (January 11, 1842 – August 26, 1910) was an American philosopher and psychologist. The first educator to offer a psychology course in the United States, he is considered to be one of the leading thinkers of the late 19th c ...
said that time is "...the short duration of which we are immediately and incessantly sensible." Augustine proposed that God is outside of time and present for all times, in
eternity Eternity, in common parlance, is an Infinity, infinite amount of time that never ends or the quality, condition or fact of being everlasting or eternal. Classical philosophy, however, defines eternity as what is timeless or exists outside tim ...
. Other early philosophers who were presentists include the
Buddhists Buddhism, also known as Buddhadharma and Dharmavinaya, is an Indian religion and philosophical tradition based on teachings attributed to the Buddha, a wandering teacher who lived in the 6th or 5th century BCE. It is the world's fourth ...
(in the tradition of
Indian Buddhism Buddhism is an ancient Indian religion, which arose in and around the ancient Kingdom of Magadha (now Bihar, India). It is based on the teachings of Gautama Buddha, who lived in the 6th or 5th century BCE and was deemed a "Buddha" or an ...
). A leading scholar from the modern era on
Buddhist philosophy Buddhist philosophy is the ancient Indian Indian philosophy, philosophical system that developed within the religio-philosophical tradition of Buddhism. It comprises all the Philosophy, philosophical investigations and Buddhist logico-episte ...
is Stcherbatsky, who has written extensively on Buddhist presentism:


In psychology

Human behavior Human behavior is the potential and expressed capacity (Energy (psychological), mentally, Physical activity, physically, and Social action, socially) of human individuals or groups to respond to internal and external Stimulation, stimuli throu ...
is known to encompass anticipation of the future. Anticipatory behavior can be the result of a psychological outlook toward the future, for examples
optimism Optimism is the Attitude (psychology), attitude or mindset of expecting events to lead to particularly positive, favorable, desirable, and hopeful outcomes. A common idiom used to illustrate optimism versus pessimism is Is the glass half empty ...
,
pessimism Pessimism is a mental attitude in which an undesirable outcome is anticipated from a given situation. Pessimists tend to focus on the negatives of life in general. A common question asked to test for pessimism is "Is the glass half empty or half ...
, and
hope Hope is an optimistic state of mind that is based on an expectation of positive outcomes with respect to events and circumstances in one's own life, or the world at large. As a verb, Merriam-Webster defines ''hope'' as "to expect with confid ...
. Optimism is an outlook on life such that one maintains a view of the world as a positive place. People would say that optimism is seeing the glass "half full" of water as opposed to half empty. It is the philosophical opposite of pessimism. Optimists generally believe that people and events are inherently good, so that most situations work out in the end for the best. Hope is a belief in a positive outcome related to events and circumstances in one's life. Hope implies a certain amount of despair, wanting, wishing, suffering or perseverance—i.e., believing that a better or positive outcome is possible even when there is some evidence to the contrary. "Hopefulness" is somewhat different from optimism in that hope is an emotional state, whereas some theories point to optimism as a conclusion reached through a deliberate thought pattern that leads to a positive personal attitudes and by extension is linked to more
philanthropic Philanthropy is a form of altruism that consists of "private initiatives for the public good, focusing on quality of life". Philanthropy contrasts with business initiatives, which are private initiatives for private good, focusing on material ...
behaviours.
Pessimism Pessimism is a mental attitude in which an undesirable outcome is anticipated from a given situation. Pessimists tend to focus on the negatives of life in general. A common question asked to test for pessimism is "Is the glass half empty or half ...
as stated before is the opposite of optimism. It is the tendency to see, anticipate, or emphasize only bad or undesirable outcomes, results, or problems. The word originates in Latin from Pessimus meaning worst and Malus meaning bad and has a link to misanthropic belief systems.


In religion

Religions consider the future when they address issues such as
karma Karma (, from , ; ) is an ancient Indian concept that refers to an action, work, or deed, and its effect or consequences. In Indian religions, the term more specifically refers to a principle of cause and effect, often descriptively called ...
, life after death, and eschatologies which consider what the end of time and the end of the world will be like. In religion, major prophets are said to have the power to change the future. Common religious figures have claimed to see into the future, such as minor
prophet In religion, a prophet or prophetess is an individual who is regarded as being in contact with a divinity, divine being and is said to speak on behalf of that being, serving as an intermediary with humanity by delivering messages or teachings ...
s and diviners. The term "afterlife" refers to the continuation of
existence Existence is the state of having being or reality in contrast to nonexistence and nonbeing. Existence is often contrasted with essence: the essence of an entity is its essential features or qualities, which can be understood even if one does ...
of the
soul The soul is the purported Mind–body dualism, immaterial aspect or essence of a Outline of life forms, living being. It is typically believed to be Immortality, immortal and to exist apart from the material world. The three main theories that ...
, spirit or
mind The mind is that which thinks, feels, perceives, imagines, remembers, and wills. It covers the totality of mental phenomena, including both conscious processes, through which an individual is aware of external and internal circumstances ...
of a human (or animal) after physical
death Death is the end of life; the irreversible cessation of all biological functions that sustain a living organism. Death eventually and inevitably occurs in all organisms. The remains of a former organism normally begin to decompose sh ...
, typically in a spiritual or
ghost In folklore, a ghost is the soul or Spirit (supernatural entity), spirit of a dead Human, person or non-human animal that is believed by some people to be able to appear to the living. In ghostlore, descriptions of ghosts vary widely, from a ...
like afterworld. Deceased persons are usually believed to go to a specific region or plane of existence in this afterworld, often depending on the rightness of their actions during life. Some believe the afterlife includes some form of preparation for the
soul The soul is the purported Mind–body dualism, immaterial aspect or essence of a Outline of life forms, living being. It is typically believed to be Immortality, immortal and to exist apart from the material world. The three main theories that ...
to transfer to another body (
reincarnation Reincarnation, also known as rebirth or transmigration, is the Philosophy, philosophical or Religion, religious concept that the non-physical essence of a living being begins a new lifespan (disambiguation), lifespan in a different physical ...
). The major views on the afterlife derive from
religion Religion is a range of social system, social-cultural systems, including designated religious behaviour, behaviors and practices, morals, beliefs, worldviews, religious text, texts, sanctified places, prophecies, ethics in religion, ethics, or ...
,
esotericism Esotericism may refer to: * Eastern esotericism, a broad range of religious beliefs and practices originating from the Eastern world, characterized by esoteric, secretive, or occult elements * Western esotericism, a wide range of loosely related id ...
and
metaphysics Metaphysics is the branch of philosophy that examines the basic structure of reality. It is traditionally seen as the study of mind-independent features of the world, but some theorists view it as an inquiry into the conceptual framework of ...
. There are those who are skeptical of the existence of the afterlife, or believe that it is absolutely impossible, such as the
materialist Materialism is a form of philosophical monism according to which matter is the fundamental substance in nature, and all things, including mental states and consciousness, are results of material interactions. According to philosophical materia ...
-reductionists, who believe that the topic is
supernatural Supernatural phenomena or entities are those beyond the Scientific law, laws of nature. The term is derived from Medieval Latin , from Latin 'above, beyond, outside of' + 'nature'. Although the corollary term "nature" has had multiple meanin ...
, therefore does not really exist or is unknowable. In metaphysical models, theists generally, believe some sort of afterlife awaits people when they die. Atheists generally do not believe in a life after death. Members of some generally non-theistic religions such as
Buddhism Buddhism, also known as Buddhadharma and Dharmavinaya, is an Indian religion and List of philosophies, philosophical tradition based on Pre-sectarian Buddhism, teachings attributed to the Buddha, a wandering teacher who lived in the 6th or ...
, tend to believe in an afterlife like
reincarnation Reincarnation, also known as rebirth or transmigration, is the Philosophy, philosophical or Religion, religious concept that the non-physical essence of a living being begins a new lifespan (disambiguation), lifespan in a different physical ...
but without reference to
God In monotheistic belief systems, God is usually viewed as the supreme being, creator, and principal object of faith. In polytheistic belief systems, a god is "a spirit or being believed to have created, or for controlling some part of the un ...
. Agnostics generally hold the position that like the existence of God, the existence of supernatural phenomena, such as souls or life after death, is unverifiable and therefore unknowable. Many religions, whether they believe in the soul's existence in another world like Christianity, Islam and many
pagan Paganism (, later 'civilian') is a term first used in the fourth century by early Christians for people in the Roman Empire who practiced polytheism, or ethnic religions other than Christianity, Judaism, and Samaritanism. In the time of the ...
belief systems, or in reincarnation like many forms of Hinduism and Buddhism, believe that one's status in the afterlife is a reward or punishment for their conduct during life, with the exception of Calvinistic variants of
Protestant Protestantism is a branch of Christianity that emphasizes Justification (theology), justification of sinners Sola fide, through faith alone, the teaching that Salvation in Christianity, salvation comes by unmerited Grace in Christianity, divin ...
Christianity, which believe one's status in the afterlife is a gift from God and cannot be earned during life.
Eschatology Eschatology (; ) concerns expectations of the end of Contemporary era, present age, human history, or the world itself. The end of the world or end times is predicted by several world religions (both Abrahamic religions, Abrahamic and non-Abrah ...
is a part of
theology Theology is the study of religious belief from a Religion, religious perspective, with a focus on the nature of divinity. It is taught as an Discipline (academia), academic discipline, typically in universities and seminaries. It occupies itse ...
and
philosophy Philosophy ('love of wisdom' in Ancient Greek) is a systematic study of general and fundamental questions concerning topics like existence, reason, knowledge, Value (ethics and social sciences), value, mind, and language. It is a rational an ...
concerned with the final events in the
Human history Human history or world history is the record of humankind from prehistory to the present. Early modern human, Modern humans evolved in Africa around 300,000 years ago and initially lived as hunter-gatherers. They Early expansions of hominin ...
, or the ultimate
destiny Destiny, sometimes also called fate (), is a predetermined course of events. It may be conceived as a predetermined future, whether in general or of an individual. Fate Although often used interchangeably, the words ''fate'' and ''destiny'' ...
of humanity, commonly referred to as the end of the world. While in
mysticism Mysticism is popularly known as becoming one with God or the Absolute (philosophy), Absolute, but may refer to any kind of Religious ecstasy, ecstasy or altered state of consciousness which is given a religious or Spirituality, spiritual meani ...
the phrase refers metaphorically to the end of ordinary reality and reunion with the Divine, in many traditional
religion Religion is a range of social system, social-cultural systems, including designated religious behaviour, behaviors and practices, morals, beliefs, worldviews, religious text, texts, sanctified places, prophecies, ethics in religion, ethics, or ...
s it is taught as an actual future event prophesied in
sacred text Religious texts, including scripture, are texts which various religions consider to be of central importance to their religious tradition. They often feature a compilation or discussion of beliefs, ritual practices, moral commandments and ...
s or
folklore Folklore is the body of expressive culture shared by a particular group of people, culture or subculture. This includes oral traditions such as Narrative, tales, myths, legends, proverbs, Poetry, poems, jokes, and other oral traditions. This also ...
. More broadly, eschatology may encompass related concepts such as the
Messiah In Abrahamic religions, a messiah or messias (; , ; , ; ) is a saviour or liberator of a group of people. The concepts of '' mashiach'', messianism, and of a Messianic Age originated in Judaism, and in the Hebrew Bible, in which a ''mashiach ...
or
Messianic Age In Abrahamic religions, the Messianic Age () is the future eternal period of time on Earth in which the messiah will reign and bring universal peace and brotherhood, without any evil (through mankind's own terms). Many believe that there will be s ...
, the end time, and the end of days.


In grammar

In
grammar In linguistics, grammar is the set of rules for how a natural language is structured, as demonstrated by its speakers or writers. Grammar rules may concern the use of clauses, phrases, and words. The term may also refer to the study of such rul ...
, actions are classified according to one of the following twelve verb tenses: past (
past The past is the set of all Spacetime#Definitions, events that occurred before a given point in time. The past is contrasted with and defined by the present and the future. The concept of the past is derived from the linear fashion in which human ...
, past continuous,
past perfect The pluperfect (shortening of plusquamperfect), usually called past perfect in English, characterizes certain verb forms and grammatical tenses involving an action from an antecedent point in time. Examples in English are: "we ''had arrived''" ...
, or past perfect continuous), present (
present The present is the period of time that is occurring now. The present is contrasted with the past, the period of time that has already occurred; and the future, the period of time that has yet to occur. It is sometimes represented as a hyperplan ...
,
present continuous The present continuous, also called the present progressive or present imperfect, is a verb form used in modern English that combines the present tense with the continuous aspect. It is formed by the present tense form of be and the present p ...
,
present perfect The present perfect is a grammatical combination of the present tense and Perfect (grammar), perfect aspect that is used to express a past event that has consequence in present. The term is used particularly in the context of English grammar to r ...
, or present perfect continuous), or future (future,
future continuous The future is the time after the past and present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the apparent nature of reality and the unavoidability of the future, everything that currently ...
,
future perfect The future perfect is a verb form or construction used to describe an event that is expected or planned to happen before a time of reference in the future, such as ''will have finished'' in the English sentence "I will have finished by tomorrow." ...
, or future perfect continuous). The future tense refers to actions that have not yet happened, but which are due, expected, or may occur in the future. For example, in the sentence, "She will walk home," the verb "will walk" is in the future tense because it refers to an action that is going to, or may, happen at a point in time beyond the present. Verbs in the future continuous tense indicate actions that will happen beyond the present and will continue for a period of time. In the sentence, "She will be walking home," the
verb phrase In linguistics, a verb phrase (VP) is a syntax, syntactic unit composed of a verb and its argument (linguistics), arguments except the subject (grammar), subject of an independent clause or coordinate clause. Thus, in the sentence ''A fat man quic ...
"will be walking" is in the future continuous tense because the action described is not happening now, but will happen sometime afterwards and is expected to continue happening for some time. Verbs in the future perfect tense indicate actions that will be completed at a particular point in the future. For example, the
verb phrase In linguistics, a verb phrase (VP) is a syntax, syntactic unit composed of a verb and its argument (linguistics), arguments except the subject (grammar), subject of an independent clause or coordinate clause. Thus, in the sentence ''A fat man quic ...
, "will have walked," in the sentence, "She will have walked home," is in the future perfect tense because it refers to an action that is completed as of a specific time in the future. Finally, verbs in the future perfect continuous tense combine the features of the perfect and continuous tenses, describing the future status of actions that have been happening continually from now or the past through to a particular time in the future. In the sentence, "She will have been walking home," the verb phrase "will have been walking" is in the future perfect continuous tense because it refers to an action that the speaker anticipates will be finished in the future. Another way to think of the various future tenses is that actions described by the future tense will be completed at an unspecified time in the future, actions described by the future continuous tense will keep happening in the future, actions described by the future perfect tense will be completed at a specific time in the future, and actions described by the future perfect continuous tense are expected to be continuing as of a specific time in the future.


Linear and cyclic culture

The linear view of time (common in
Western thought Western philosophy refers to the philosophical thought, traditions and works of the Western world. Historically, the term refers to the philosophical thinking of Western culture, beginning with the ancient Greek philosophy of the pre-Socratics. ...
) draws a stronger distinction between past and future than does the more common cyclic time of cultures such as India, where past and future can coalesce much more readily.


Futures studies

Futures studies or futurology is the science, art, and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. Futures studies seek to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. A key part of this process is understanding the potential future impact of decisions made by individuals, organizations, and governments. Leaders use the results of such work to assist in decision-making. Futures is an interdisciplinary field, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. Modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures. Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines not only possible but also probable, preferable, and "wild card" futures. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions. Futures studies do not generally include the work of economists who forecast movements of interest rates over the next business cycle, or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops operational plans for preferred futures with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. But plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate and be robust to possible future events, are part of a major subdiscipline of futures studies called strategic foresight. The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means. At the same time, it does seek to understand the model's such groups use and the interpretations they give to these models.


Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of estimating outcomes in uncontrolled situations. Forecasting is applied in many areas, such as
weather forecasting Weather forecasting or weather prediction is the application of science and technology forecasting, to predict the conditions of the Earth's atmosphere, atmosphere for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather info ...
,
earthquake prediction Earthquake prediction is a branch of the science of geophysics, primarily seismology, concerned with the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes within stated limits, and particularly "the determination of par ...
, transport planning, and
labour market Labour or labor may refer to: * Childbirth, the delivery of a baby * Labour (human activity), or work ** Manual labour, physical work ** Wage labour, a socioeconomic relationship between a worker and an employer ** Organized labour and the labou ...
planning. Due to the element of the unknown,
risk In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environ ...
and
uncertainty Uncertainty or incertitude refers to situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown, and is particularly relevant for decision ...
are central to forecasting. Statistically based forecasting employs
time series In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. ...
with cross-sectional or longitudinal data.
Econometric Econometrics is an application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. M. Hashem Pesaran (1987). "Econometrics", '' The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics'', v. 2, p. 8 p. 8� ...
forecasting methods use the assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast. If the causes are understood, projections of the influencing variables can be made and used in the forecast. Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions, and probability estimates, as in the case of the
Delphi method The Delphi method or Delphi technique ( ; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi ...
, scenario building, and
simulation A simulation is an imitative representation of a process or system that could exist in the real world. In this broad sense, simulation can often be used interchangeably with model. Sometimes a clear distinction between the two terms is made, in ...
s. Prediction is similar to forecasting but is used more generally, for instance, to also include baseless claims on the future. Organized efforts to predict the future began with practices like
astrology Astrology is a range of Divination, divinatory practices, recognized as pseudoscientific since the 18th century, that propose that information about human affairs and terrestrial events may be discerned by studying the apparent positions ...
,
haruspicy In the religion of ancient Rome, a haruspex was a person trained to practise a form of divination called haruspicy, the inspection of the entrails of sacrificed animals, especially the livers of sacrificed sheep and poultry. Various ancient ...
, and
augury Augury was a Greco- Roman religious practice of observing the behavior of birds, to receive omens. When the individual, known as the augur, read these signs, it was referred to as "taking the auspices". "Auspices" () means "looking at birds". ...
. These are all considered to be
pseudoscience Pseudoscience consists of statements, beliefs, or practices that claim to be both scientific and factual but are incompatible with the scientific method. Pseudoscience is often characterized by contradictory, exaggerated or unfalsifiable cl ...
today, evolving from the human desire to know the future in advance. Modern efforts such as
futures studies Futures studies, futures research or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and wor ...
attempt to predict technological and societal trends, while more ancient practices, such as weather forecasting, have benefited from
scientific Science is a systematic discipline that builds and organises knowledge in the form of testable hypotheses and predictions about the universe. Modern science is typically divided into twoor threemajor branches: the natural sciences, which stu ...
and causal modelling. Despite the development of
cognitive Cognition is the "mental action or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding through thought, experience, and the senses". It encompasses all aspects of intellectual functions and processes such as: perception, attention, thought, ...
instruments for the comprehension of future, the
stochastic Stochastic (; ) is the property of being well-described by a random probability distribution. ''Stochasticity'' and ''randomness'' are technically distinct concepts: the former refers to a modeling approach, while the latter describes phenomena; i ...
and chaotic nature of many natural and social processes has made precise forecasting of the future elusive.


In art and culture


Futurism

Futurism as an
art movement An art movement is a tendency or style in art with a specific art philosophy or goal, followed by a group of artists during a specific period of time, (usually a few months, years or decades) or, at least, with the heyday of the movement defined ...
originated in Italy at the beginning of the 20th century. It developed largely in Italy and in Russia, although it also had adherents in other countries—in England and Portugal for example. The Futurists explored every medium of art, including painting, sculpture, poetry, theatre, music, architecture, and even gastronomy. Futurists had passionate loathing of ideas from the past, especially political and artistic traditions. They also espoused a love of speed, technology, and violence. Futurists dubbed the love of the past ''passéisme''. The car, the plane, and the industrial town were all legendary for the Futurists because they represented the technological triumph of people over nature. The ''Futurist Manifesto'' of 1909 declared: "We will glorify war—the world's only hygiene—militarism, patriotism, the destructive gesture of freedom-bringers, beautiful ideas worth dying for, and scorn for woman." Though it owed much of its character and some of its ideas to political radicalism, radical political movements, it had little involvement in politics until the autumn of 1913. Futurism in Classical Music arose during this same time period. Closely identified with the central Italian Futurist movement were brother composers Luigi Russolo (1885–1947) and Antonio Russolo (1877–1942), who used instruments known as ''intonarumori''—essentially sound boxes used to create music out of noise. Luigi Russolo's futurist manifesto, "The Art of Noises", is considered one of the most important and influential texts in 20th-century musical aesthetics. Other examples of futurist music include Arthur Honegger's "Pacific 231" (1923), which imitates the sound of a steam locomotive, Sergei Prokofiev, Prokofiev's "Le pas d'acier (Prokofiev), The Steel Step" (1926), Alexander Mosolov's "Iron Foundry" (1927), and the experiments of Edgard Varèse. Futurism (literature), Literary futurism made its debut with Filippo Tommaso Marinetti, F.T. Marinetti's ''Futurist Manifesto, Manifesto of Futurism'' (1909). Futurist poetry used unexpected combinations of images and hyper-conciseness (not to be confused with the actual length of the poem). Futurist theater works have scenes a few sentences long, use nonsensical humor, and try to discredit the deep-rooted dramatic traditions with parody. Longer literature forms, such as novels, had no place in the Futurist aesthetic, which had an obsession with speed and compression. Futurism expanded to encompass other artistic domains and ultimately included painting, sculpture, ceramics, graphic design, industrial design, interior design, theatre design, textiles, drama, literature, music and architecture. In architecture, it featured a distinctive thrust towards rationalism and modernism through the use of advanced building materials. The ideals of futurism remain as significant components of modern Western culture; the emphasis on youth, speed, power and technology finding expression in much of modern commercial film, cinema and commercial culture. Futurism has produced several reactions, including the 1980s-era literary genre of cyberpunk—which often treated technology with a critical eye.


Science fiction

More generally, one can regard science fiction as a broad genre of fiction that often involves speculations based on current or future science or technology. Science fiction is found in books, art, television, films, games, theater, and other media. Science fiction differs from Fantasy literature, fantasy in that, within the context of the story, its imaginary elements are largely possible within scientifically established or scientifically postulated laws of nature (though ''some'' elements in a story might still be pure imaginative speculation). Settings may include the future, or alternative time-lines, and stories may depict new or speculative scientific principles (such as time travel or psionics), or new technology (such as nanotechnology, faster-than-light travel or robots). Exploring the consequences of such differences is the traditional purpose of science fiction, making it a "literature of ideas". Some
science fiction Science fiction (often shortened to sci-fi or abbreviated SF) is a genre of speculative fiction that deals with imaginative and futuristic concepts. These concepts may include information technology and robotics, biological manipulations, space ...
authors construct a postulated history of the future called a "future history" that provides a common background for their fiction. Sometimes authors publish a Chronology, timeline of events in their history, while other times the reader can reconstruct the order of the stories from information in the books. Some published works constitute "future history" in a more literal sense—i.e., stories or whole books written in the style of a history book but describing events in the future. Examples include H.G. Wells' ''The Shape of Things to Come'' (1933)—written in the form of a history book published in the year 2106 and in the manner of a real history book with numerous footnotes and references to the works of (mostly fictitious) prominent historians of the 20th and 21st centuries.


See also


References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Future Future, Philosophy of time Time