philosophy of science Philosophy of science is a branch of philosophy concerned with the foundations, methods, and implications of science. The central questions of this study concern what qualifies as science, the reliability of scientific theories, and the ult ...

, strong inference is a model of scientific inquiry that emphasizes the need for alternative hypotheses, rather than a single hypothesis to avoid confirmation bias. The term "strong inference" was coined by John R. Platt, a

biophysicist Biophysics is an interdisciplinary science that applies approaches and methods traditionally used in physics to study biological phenomena. Biophysics covers all scales of biological organization, from molecular to organismic and populations. ...

at the

University of Chicago The University of Chicago (UChicago, Chicago, U of C, or UChi) is a private university, private research university in Chicago, Illinois. Its main campus is located in Chicago's Hyde Park, Chicago, Hyde Park neighborhood. The University of Chic ...

. Platt notes that some fields, such as

molecular biology Molecular biology is the branch of biology that seeks to understand the molecular basis of biological activity in and between cells, including biomolecular synthesis, modification, mechanisms, and interactions. The study of chemical and physi ...

and

high-energy physics Particle physics or high energy physics is the study of fundamental particles and forces that constitute matter and radiation. The fundamental particles in the universe are classified in the Standard Model as fermions (matter particles) a ...

, seem to adhere strongly to strong inference, with very beneficial results for the rate of progress in those fields.

The single hypothesis problem

The problem with single hypotheses, confirmation bias, was aptly described by

Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin (; September 25, 1843 – November 15, 1928) was an American geologist and educator. In 1893 he founded the '' Journal of Geology'', of which he was editor for many years. Biography Chamberlin was born September 25, 18 ...

in 1897: Despite the admonitions of Platt, reviewers of grant-applications often require "A Hypothesis" as part of the proposal (note the singular). Peer-review of research can help avoid the mistakes of single-hypotheses, but only so long as the reviewers are not in the thrall of the same hypothesis. If there is a shared enthrallment among the reviewers in a commonly believed hypothesis, then innovation becomes difficult because alternative hypotheses are not seriously considered, and sometimes not even permitted.

Strong Inference

The method, very similar to the scientific method, is described as: # Devising alternative hypotheses; # Devising a Experimentum crucis, crucial experiment (or several of them), with alternative possible outcomes, each of which will, as nearly as possible, exclude one or more of the hypotheses; # Carrying out the experiment(s) so as to get a clean result; # Recycling the procedure, making subhypotheses or sequential hypotheses to refine the possibilities that remain, and so on.

Criticisms

The original paper outlining strong inference has been criticized, particularly for overstating the degree that certain fields used this method.

Strong inference plus

The limitations of Strong-Inference can be corrected by having two preceding phases: # An exploratory phase: at this point information is inadequate so observations are chosen randomly or intuitively or based on scientific creativity. # A pilot phase: in this phase statistical power is determined by replicating experiments under identical experimental conditions. These phases create the critical seed observation (s) upon which one can base alternative hypotheses.

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Strong Inference Scientific method Inference