A prediction (
Latin
Latin (, or , ) is a classical language belonging to the Italic branch of the Indo-European languages. Latin was originally a dialect spoken in the lower Tiber area (then known as Latium) around present-day Rome, but through the power of the ...
''præ-'', "before," and ''dicere'', "to say"), or
forecast, is a statement about a future
event
Event may refer to:
Gatherings of people
* Ceremony, an event of ritual significance, performed on a special occasion
* Convention (meeting), a gathering of individuals engaged in some common interest
* Event management, the organization of e ...
or data. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference from "
estimation
Estimation (or estimating) is the process of finding an estimate or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable. The value is nonetheless usable because it is de ...
"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different
connotations.
Future events are necessarily
uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. Prediction can be useful to assist in making
plans
A plan is typically any diagram or list of steps with details of timing and resources, used to achieve an objective to do something. It is commonly understood as a temporal set of intended actions through which one expects to achieve a goal.
...
about possible developments.
Opinion
In a non-statistical sense, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an
informed guess or opinion.
A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's
abductive reasoning
Abductive reasoning (also called abduction,For example: abductive inference, or retroduction) is a form of logical inference formulated and advanced by American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce beginning in the last third of the 19th century ...
,
inductive reasoning,
deductive reasoning
Deductive reasoning is the mental process of drawing deductive inferences. An inference is deductively valid if its conclusion follows logically from its premises, i.e. if it is impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion to be fals ...
, and
experience
Experience refers to conscious events in general, more specifically to perceptions, or to the practical knowledge and familiarity that is produced by these conscious processes. Understood as a conscious event in the widest sense, experience involv ...
; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a
knowledgeable person in the field.
The
Delphi method }
The Delphi method or Delphi technique ( ; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The ...
is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in a controlled way. This type of prediction might be perceived as consistent with statistical techniques in the sense that, at minimum, the "data" being used is the predicting expert's
cognitive experiences forming an
intuitive
Intuition is the ability to acquire knowledge without recourse to conscious reasoning. Different fields use the word "intuition" in very different ways, including but not limited to: direct access to unconscious knowledge; unconscious cognition; ...
"probability curve."
Statistics
In
statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ''wikt:Statistik#German, Statistik'', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of ...
, prediction is a part of
statistical inference
Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying probability distribution, distribution of probability.Upton, G., Cook, I. (2008) ''Oxford Dictionary of Statistics'', OUP. . Inferential statistical ...
. One particular approach to such inference is known as
predictive inference
Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying distribution of probability.Upton, G., Cook, I. (2008) ''Oxford Dictionary of Statistics'', OUP. . Inferential statistical analysis infers propertie ...
, but the prediction can be undertaken within any of the several approaches to statistical inference. Indeed, one possible description of statistics is that it provides a means of transferring knowledge about a sample of a population to the whole population, and to other related populations, which is not necessarily the same as prediction over time. When information is transferred across time, often to specific points in time, the process is known as
forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual ...
. Forecasting usually requires
time series
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Exa ...
methods, while prediction is often performed on
cross-sectional data
Cross-sectional data, or a cross section of a study population, in statistics and econometrics, is a type of data collected by observing many subjects (such as individuals, firms, countries, or regions) at the one point or period of time. The anal ...
.
Statistical techniques used for prediction include
regression analysis
In statistical modeling, regression analysis is a set of statistical processes for estimating the relationships between a dependent variable (often called the 'outcome' or 'response' variable, or a 'label' in machine learning parlance) and one ...
and its various sub-categories such as
linear regression,
generalized linear model
In statistics, a generalized linear model (GLM) is a flexible generalization of ordinary linear regression. The GLM generalizes linear regression by allowing the linear model to be related to the response variable via a ''link function'' and b ...
s (
logistic regression
In statistics, the logistic model (or logit model) is a statistical model that models the probability of an event taking place by having the log-odds for the event be a linear function (calculus), linear combination of one or more independent var ...
,
Poisson regression
In statistics, Poisson regression is a generalized linear model form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables. Poisson regression assumes the response variable ''Y'' has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logari ...
,
Probit regression
In statistics, a probit model is a type of regression where the dependent variable can take only two values, for example married or not married. The word is a portmanteau, coming from ''probability'' + ''unit''. The purpose of the model is to e ...
), etc. In case of forecasting,
autoregressive moving average model
In statistics, econometrics and signal processing, an autoregressive (AR) model is a representation of a type of random process; as such, it is used to describe certain time-varying processes in nature, economics, etc. The autoregressive model spe ...
s and
vector autoregression
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a statistical model used to capture the relationship between multiple quantities as they change over time. VAR is a type of stochastic process model. VAR models generalize the single-variable (univariate) autoregres ...
models can be utilized. When these and/or related, generalized set of regression or
machine learning
Machine learning (ML) is a field of inquiry devoted to understanding and building methods that 'learn', that is, methods that leverage data to improve performance on some set of tasks. It is seen as a part of artificial intelligence.
Machine ...
methods are deployed in commercial usage, the field is known as
predictive analytics
Predictive analytics encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modeling, and machine learning that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events.
In busine ...
.
In many applications, such as time series analysis, it is possible to estimate the models that generate the observations. If models can be expressed as
transfer function
In engineering, a transfer function (also known as system function or network function) of a system, sub-system, or component is a mathematical function that theoretically models the system's output for each possible input. They are widely used ...
s or in terms of state-space parameters then smoothed, filtered and predicted data estimates can be calculated. If the underlying generating models are linear then a minimum-variance
Kalman filter
For statistics and control theory, Kalman filtering, also known as linear quadratic estimation (LQE), is an algorithm that uses a series of measurements observed over time, including statistical noise and other inaccuracies, and produces estima ...
and a minimum-variance smoother may be used to recover data of interest from noisy measurements. These techniques rely on one-step-ahead predictors (which minimise the variance of the
prediction error
In statistics the mean squared prediction error or mean squared error of the predictions of a smoothing or curve fitting procedure is the expected value of the squared difference between the fitted values implied by the predictive function \wideh ...
). When the generating models are nonlinear then stepwise linearizations may be applied within
Extended Kalman Filter
In estimation theory, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) is the nonlinear version of the Kalman filter which linearizes about an estimate of the current mean and covariance. In the case of well defined transition models, the EKF has been considered t ...
and smoother recursions. However, in nonlinear cases, optimum minimum-variance performance guarantees no longer apply.
To use regression analysis for prediction, data are collected on the variable that is to be predicted, called the
dependent variable or response variable, and on one or more variables whose values are
hypothesized to influence it, called
independent variables or explanatory variables. A
functional form, often linear, is hypothesized for the postulated causal relationship, and the
parameter
A parameter (), generally, is any characteristic that can help in defining or classifying a particular system (meaning an event, project, object, situation, etc.). That is, a parameter is an element of a system that is useful, or critical, when ...
s of the function are
estimated
Estimation (or estimating) is the process of finding an estimate or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable. The value is nonetheless usable because it is der ...
from the data—that is, are chosen so as to optimize is some way the
fit of the function, thus parameterized, to the data. That is the estimation step. For the prediction step, explanatory variable values that are deemed relevant to future (or current but not yet observed) values of the dependent variable are input to the parameterized function to generate predictions for the dependent variable.
Science
In science, a prediction is a rigorous, often quantitative, statement, forecasting what would be observed under specific conditions; for example, according to theories of
gravity
In physics, gravity () is a fundamental interaction which causes mutual attraction between all things with mass or energy. Gravity is, by far, the weakest of the four fundamental interactions, approximately 1038 times weaker than the stro ...
, if an apple fell from a tree it would be seen to move towards the center of the earth with a specified and constant
acceleration
In mechanics, acceleration is the rate of change of the velocity of an object with respect to time. Accelerations are vector quantities (in that they have magnitude and direction). The orientation of an object's acceleration is given by the ...
. The
scientific method
The scientific method is an empirical method for acquiring knowledge that has characterized the development of science since at least the 17th century (with notable practitioners in previous centuries; see the article history of scientific m ...
is built on testing statements that are
logical consequences of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable
experiment
An experiment is a procedure carried out to support or refute a hypothesis, or determine the efficacy or likelihood of something previously untried. Experiments provide insight into Causality, cause-and-effect by demonstrating what outcome oc ...
s or observational studies.
A
scientific theory
A scientific theory is an explanation of an aspect of the natural world and universe that has been repeatedly tested and corroborated in accordance with the scientific method, using accepted protocols of observation, measurement, and evaluatio ...
whose predictions are contradicted by observations and evidence will be rejected. New theories that generate many new predictions can more easily be supported or
falsified
Falsifiability is a standard of evaluation of scientific theories and hypotheses that was introduced by the philosopher of science Karl Popper in his book ''The Logic of Scientific Discovery'' (1934). He proposed it as the cornerstone of a sol ...
(see
predictive power
The concept of predictive power, the power of a scientific theory to generate testable predictions, differs from '' explanatory power'' and ''descriptive power'' (where phenomena that are already known are retrospectively explained or describe ...
). Notions that make no ''
testable
Testability is a primary aspect of Science and the Scientific Method and is a property applying to an empirical hypothesis, involves two components:
#Falsifiability or defeasibility, which means that counterexamples to the hypothesis are logicall ...
'' predictions are usually considered not to be part of science (
protoscience
__NOTOC__
In the philosophy of science, there are several definitions of protoscience. Its simplest meaning (most closely reflecting its roots of '' proto-'' + ''science'') involves the earliest eras of the history of science, when the scientific m ...
or
nescience) until testable predictions can be made.
Mathematical equations and
models
A model is an informative representation of an object, person or system. The term originally denoted the plans of a building in late 16th-century English, and derived via French and Italian ultimately from Latin ''modulus'', a measure.
Models c ...
, and
computer model
Computer simulation is the process of mathematical modelling, performed on a computer, which is designed to predict the behaviour of, or the outcome of, a real-world or physical system. The reliability of some mathematical models can be deter ...
s, are frequently used to describe the past and future behaviour of a process within the boundaries of that model. In some cases the
probability
Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an Event (probability theory), event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and ...
of an outcome, rather than a specific outcome, can be predicted, for example in much of
quantum physics
Quantum mechanics is a fundamental theory in physics that provides a description of the physical properties of nature at the scale of atoms and subatomic particles. It is the foundation of all quantum physics including quantum chemistry, qua ...
.
In
microprocessor
A microprocessor is a computer processor where the data processing logic and control is included on a single integrated circuit, or a small number of integrated circuits. The microprocessor contains the arithmetic, logic, and control circu ...
s,
branch prediction
In computer architecture, a branch predictor is a digital circuit that tries to guess which way a branch (e.g., an if–then–else structure) will go before this is known definitively. The purpose of the branch predictor is to improve the flow ...
permits avoidance of
pipeline
Pipeline may refer to:
Electronics, computers and computing
* Pipeline (computing), a chain of data-processing stages or a CPU optimization found on
** Instruction pipelining, a technique for implementing instruction-level parallelism within a s ...
emptying at
branch instructions.
In
engineering
Engineering is the use of scientific method, scientific principles to design and build machines, structures, and other items, including bridges, tunnels, roads, vehicles, and buildings. The discipline of engineering encompasses a broad rang ...
, possible
failure mode
Failure causes are defects in design, process, quality, or part application, which are the underlying cause of a failure or which initiate a process which leads to failure. Where failure depends on the user of the product or process, then human er ...
s are predicted and avoided by correcting the
failure mechanism causing the failure.
Accurate prediction and forecasting are very difficult in some areas, such as
natural disasters,
pandemics
A pandemic () is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of in ...
,
demography
Demography () is the statistics, statistical study of populations, especially human beings.
Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and Population dynamics, dynamics of populations; it can cover whole societies or groups ...
,
population dynamics and
meteorology
Meteorology is a branch of the atmospheric sciences (which include atmospheric chemistry and physics) with a major focus on weather forecasting. The study of meteorology dates back millennia, though significant progress in meteorology did not ...
. For example, it is possible to predict the occurrence of
solar cycle
The solar cycle, also known as the solar magnetic activity cycle, sunspot cycle, or Schwabe cycle, is a nearly periodic 11-year change in the Sun's activity measured in terms of variations in the number of observed sunspots on the Sun's surfa ...
s, but their exact timing and magnitude is much more difficult (see picture to right).
In materials engineering it is also possible to predict the life time of a material with a mathematical model.
Hypothesis
Established science makes useful predictions which are often extremely reliable and accurate; for example,
eclipses are routinely predicted.
New theories make predictions which allow them to be disproved by reality. For example, predicting the structure of crystals at the atomic level is a current research challenge. In the early 20th century the scientific consensus was that there existed an absolute
frame of reference, which was given the name ''
luminiferous ether
Luminiferous aether or ether ("luminiferous", meaning "light-bearing") was the postulated medium for the propagation of light. It was invoked to explain the ability of the apparently wave-based light to propagate through empty space (a vacuum), so ...
''. The existence of this absolute frame was deemed necessary for consistency with the established idea that the speed of light is constant. The famous
Michelson–Morley experiment
The Michelson–Morley experiment was an attempt to detect the existence of the luminiferous aether, a supposed medium permeating space that was thought to be the carrier of light waves. The experiment was performed between April and July 1887 ...
demonstrated that predictions deduced from this concept were not borne out in reality, thus disproving the theory of an absolute frame of reference. The
special theory of relativity
In physics, the special theory of relativity, or special relativity for short, is a scientific theory regarding the relationship between space and time. In Albert Einstein's original treatment, the theory is based on two postulates:
# The laws o ...
was proposed by Einstein as an explanation for the seeming inconsistency between the constancy of the speed of light and the non-existence of a special, preferred or absolute frame of reference.
Albert Einstein
Albert Einstein ( ; ; 14 March 1879 – 18 April 1955) was a German-born theoretical physicist, widely acknowledged to be one of the greatest and most influential physicists of all time. Einstein is best known for developing the theory ...
's theory of
general relativity
General relativity, also known as the general theory of relativity and Einstein's theory of gravity, is the geometric theory of gravitation published by Albert Einstein in 1915 and is the current description of gravitation in modern physics ...
could not easily be tested as it did not produce any effects observable on a terrestrial scale. However, as one of the first
tests of general relativity
Tests of general relativity serve to establish observational evidence for the theory of general relativity. The first three tests, proposed by Albert Einstein in 1915, concerned the "anomalous" precession of the perihelion of Mercury, the ben ...
, the theory predicted that large masses such as
star
A star is an astronomical object comprising a luminous spheroid of plasma (physics), plasma held together by its gravity. The List of nearest stars and brown dwarfs, nearest star to Earth is the Sun. Many other stars are visible to the naked ...
s would bend light, in contradiction to accepted theory; this was observed in a 1919 eclipse.
Finance
![Augur, decentralized prediction market platform](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ef/Augur%2C_decentralized_prediction_market_platform.png)
Mathematical models of
stock market behaviour (and economic behaviour in general) are also unreliable in predicting future behaviour. Among other reasons, this is because economic events may span several years, and the world is changing over a similar time frame, thus invalidating the relevance of past observations to the present. Thus there are an extremely small number (of the order of 1) of relevant past data points from which to project the future. In addition, it is generally believed that stock market prices already take into account all the information available to predict the future, and subsequent movements must therefore be the result of unforeseen events. Consequently, it is extremely difficult for a
stock investor to
anticipate or predict a
stock market boom, or a
stock market crash
A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock
In finance, stock (also capital stock) consists of all the shares by which ownership of a corporation or company is divided.Longman Business English Dictionary: "stock - ''especia ...
. In contrast to predicting the actual stock return, forecasting of broad
economic trend
*all the economic indicators that are the subject of economic forecasting
**see also: econometrics
*general trends in the economy, see: economic history
Economic history is the academic learning of economies or economic events of the past. R ...
s tends to have better accuracy. Such analysis is provided by both non-profit groups as well as by for-profit private institutions.
Some correlation has been seen between actual stock market movements and prediction data from large groups in surveys and prediction games.
An
actuary uses
actuarial science to assess and predict future business
risk
In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environme ...
, such that the risk(s) can be
mitigated. For example, in
insurance
Insurance is a means of protection from financial loss in which, in exchange for a fee, a party agrees to compensate another party in the event of a certain loss, damage, or injury. It is a form of risk management, primarily used to hedge ...
an actuary would use a
life table
In actuarial science and demography, a life table (also called a mortality table or actuarial table) is a table which shows, for each age, what the probability is that a person of that age will die before their next birthday ("probability of death ...
(which incorporates the historical experience of mortality rates and sometimes an estimate of future trends) to project
life expectancy
Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the average time an organism is expected to live, based on the year of its birth, current age, and other demographic factors like sex. The most commonly used measure is life expectancy at birth ...
.
Sports
Predicting the outcome of sporting events is a business which has grown in popularity in recent years. Handicappers predict the outcome of games using a variety of mathematical formulas, simulation models or
qualitative analysis. Early, well known sports bettors, such as
Jimmy the Greek
James George Snyder Sr. (born Dimetrios Georgios Synodinos Roberto Kurtz, September 9, 1918 – April 21, 1996), better known as Jimmy the Greek, was an American sports commentator and Las Vegas bookmaker. A regular contributor to the CBS prog ...
, were believed to have access to information that gave them an edge. Information ranged from personal issues, such as gambling or drinking to undisclosed injuries; anything that may affect the performance of a player on the field.
Recent times have changed the way sports are predicted. Predictions now typically consist of two distinct approaches: Situational plays and statistical based models. Situational plays are much more difficult to measure because they usually involve the motivation of a team. Dan Gordon, noted handicapper, wrote "Without an emotional edge in a game in addition to value in a line, I won't put my money on it". These types of plays consist of: Betting on the home underdog, betting against Monday Night winners if they are a favorite next week, betting the underdog in "look ahead" games etc. As situational plays become more widely known they become less useful because they will impact the way the line is set.
The widespread use of technology has brought with it more modern
sports betting systems
Sports betting systems are sets of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represent a profitable betting scenario. Since sports betting involves humans, there is no deterministic edge to the house or the gambler. Sys ...
. These systems are typically algorithms and simulation models based on
regression analysis
In statistical modeling, regression analysis is a set of statistical processes for estimating the relationships between a dependent variable (often called the 'outcome' or 'response' variable, or a 'label' in machine learning parlance) and one ...
.
Jeff Sagarin
Jeff Sagarin is an American sports statistician known for his development of a method for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports. His ratings have been a regular feature in the ''USA Today'' sports section since 1985, have been us ...
, a sports statistician, has brought attention to sports by having the results of his models published in USA Today. He is currently paid as a consultant by the
Dallas Mavericks for his advice on lineups and the use of his Winval system, which evaluates free agents.
Brian Burke, a former
Navy
A navy, naval force, or maritime force is the branch of a nation's armed forces principally designated for naval warfare, naval and amphibious warfare; namely, lake-borne, riverine, littoral zone, littoral, or ocean-borne combat operations and ...
fighter pilot turned sports statistician, has published his results of using regression analysis to predict the outcome of NFL games.
Ken Pomeroy
Ken Pomeroy is the creator of the college basketball website and statistical archive KenPom. His website includes his College Basketball Ratings, statistics for every NCAA men's Division I basketball team, with archives dating back to the 2002 s ...
is widely accepted as a leading authority on college basketball statistics. His website includes his College Basketball Ratings, a tempo based statistics system. Some statisticians have become very famous for having successful prediction systems. Dare wrote "the effective odds for sports betting and horse racing are a direct result of human decisions and can therefore potentially exhibit consistent error". Unlike other games offered in a casino, prediction in sporting events can be both logical and consistent.
Other more advance models include those based on Bayesian networks, which are causal probabilistic models commonly used for risk analysis and decision support. Based on this kind of mathematical modelling, Constantinou et al., have developed models for predicting the outcome of association football matches. What makes these models interesting is that, apart from taking into consideration relevant historical data, they also incorporate all these vague subjective factors, like availability of key players, team fatigue, team motivation and so on. They provide the user with the ability to include their best guesses about things that there are no hard facts available. This additional information is then combined with historical facts to provide a revised prediction for future match outcomes. The initial results based on these modelling practices are encouraging since they have demonstrated consistent profitability against published market odds.
Nowadays sport betting is a huge business; there are many websites (systems) alongside betting sites, which give tips or predictions for future games. Some of these prediction websites (tipsters) are based on human predictions, but others on computer software sometimes called prediction robots or bots. Prediction bots can use different amount of data and algorithms and because of that their accuracy may vary.
Sites such a
Tzefi.commaintain that other sites' claim that they simulate the game 50,000 times before it's actually played on the field, is quite misleading and incorrect.
This is due to the fact that those sites don't consider the human element of the game, and that a
batter with a .330
ERA
An era is a span of time defined for the purposes of chronology or historiography, as in the regnal eras in the history of a given monarchy, a calendar era used for a given calendar, or the geological eras defined for the history of Earth.
Comp ...
may
strike out when the bases are loaded, or a
quarterback
The quarterback (commonly abbreviated "QB"), colloquially known as the "signal caller", is a position in gridiron football. Quarterbacks are members of the offensive platoon and mostly line up directly behind the offensive line. In modern Ame ...
with a 100+
passer rating
Passer rating (also known as passing efficiency in college football) is a measure of the performance of passers, primarily quarterbacks, in gridiron football. There are two formulas currently in use: one used by both the National Football Leag ...
may throw an
interception
In ball-playing competitive team sports, an interception or pick is a move by a player involving a pass of the ball—whether by foot or hand, depending on the rules of the sport—in which the ball is intended for a player of the same team b ...
at a crucial time.
Tzefi.com boasts a 64.5% accuracy in predicting NFL games.
Social science
Prediction in the non-economic social sciences differs from the natural sciences and includes multiple alternative methods such as trend projection, forecasting, scenario-building and Delphi surveys. The oil company Shell is particularly well known for its scenario-building activities.
One reason for the peculiarity of societal prediction is that in the social sciences, "predictors are part of the social context about which they are trying to make a prediction and may influence that context in the process".
As a consequence, societal predictions can become self-destructing. For example, a forecast that a large percentage of a population will become HIV infected based on existing trends may cause more people to avoid risky behavior and thus reduce the HIV infection rate, invalidating the forecast (which might have remained correct if it had not been publicly known). Or, a prediction that cybersecurity will become a major issue may cause organizations to implement more security cybersecurity measures, thus limiting the issue.
![2004 canadian election approval ratings June 2](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/2004_canadian_election_approval_ratings_June_2.png)
In
politics
Politics (from , ) is the set of activities that are associated with making decisions in groups, or other forms of power relations among individuals, such as the distribution of resources or status. The branch of social science that studies ...
it is common to attempt to predict the outcome of
elections
An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold Public administration, public office.
Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative ...
via
political forecasting
Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relating to politicians and political institutions. T ...
techniques (or assess the popularity of
politicians) through the use of
opinion polls
An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election) is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions ...
.
Prediction games have been used by many corporations and governments to learn about the most likely outcome of future events.
Prophecy
Predictions have often been made, from antiquity until the present, by using
paranormal
Paranormal events are purported phenomena described in popular culture, folk, and other non-scientific bodies of knowledge, whose existence within these contexts is described as being beyond the scope of normal scientific understanding. Not ...
or
supernatural
Supernatural refers to phenomena or entities that are beyond the laws of nature. The term is derived from Medieval Latin , from Latin (above, beyond, or outside of) + (nature) Though the corollary term "nature", has had multiple meanings si ...
means such as
prophecy
In religion, a prophecy is a message that has been communicated to a person (typically called a '' prophet'') by a supernatural entity. Prophecies are a feature of many cultures and belief systems and usually contain divine will or law, or pr ...
or by observing
omens. Methods including
water divining
Dowsing is a type of divination employed in attempts to locate ground water, buried metals or ores, gemstones, oil, claimed radiations (radiesthesia),As translated from one preface of the Kassel experiments, "roughly 10,000 active dowsers in G ...
,
astrology
Astrology is a range of Divination, divinatory practices, recognized as pseudoscientific since the 18th century, that claim to discern information about human affairs and terrestrial events by studying the apparent positions of Celestial o ...
,
numerology,
fortune telling
Fortune telling is the practice of predicting information about a person's life. Melton, J. Gordon. (2008). ''The Encyclopedia of Religious Phenomena''. Visible Ink Press. pp. 115-116. The scope of fortune telling is in principle identical w ...
,
interpretation of dreams, and many other forms of
divination
Divination (from Latin ''divinare'', 'to foresee, to foretell, to predict, to prophesy') is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of an occultic, standardized process or ritual. Used in various forms throughout histor ...
, have been used for millennia to attempt to predict the future. These means of prediction have not been proven by scientific experiments.
In literature, vision and prophecy are literary devices used to present a possible timeline of future events. They can be distinguished by vision referring to what an individual sees happen. The
book of Revelation
The Book of Revelation is the final book of the New Testament (and consequently the final book of the Christian Bible). Its title is derived from the first word of the Koine Greek text: , meaning "unveiling" or "revelation". The Book of R ...
, in the
New Testament
The New Testament grc, Ἡ Καινὴ Διαθήκη, transl. ; la, Novum Testamentum. (NT) is the second division of the Christian biblical canon. It discusses the teachings and person of Jesus, as well as events in first-century Christ ...
, thus uses vision as a literary device in this regard. It is also prophecy or prophetic literature when it is related by an individual in a
sermon
A sermon is a religious discourse or oration by a preacher, usually a member of clergy. Sermons address a scriptural, theological, or moral topic, usually expounding on a type of belief, law, or behavior within both past and present contexts. ...
or other public forum.
Divination
Divination (from Latin ''divinare'', 'to foresee, to foretell, to predict, to prophesy') is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of an occultic, standardized process or ritual. Used in various forms throughout histor ...
is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of an occultic standardized process or ritual. It is an integral part of witchcraft and has been used in various forms for thousands of years. Diviners ascertain their interpretations of how a querent should proceed by reading signs, events, or
omens, or through alleged contact with a
supernatural
Supernatural refers to phenomena or entities that are beyond the laws of nature. The term is derived from Medieval Latin , from Latin (above, beyond, or outside of) + (nature) Though the corollary term "nature", has had multiple meanings si ...
agency, most often describe as an angel or a god though viewed by Christians and Jews as a fallen angel or demon.
[''Definition of divination''](_blank)
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Fiction
Fiction (especially fantasy, forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual ...
and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means.
In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through magic
Magic or Magick most commonly refers to:
* Magic (supernatural), beliefs and actions employed to influence supernatural beings and forces
* Ceremonial magic, encompasses a wide variety of rituals of magic
* Magical thinking, the belief that unrela ...
or prophecy
In religion, a prophecy is a message that has been communicated to a person (typically called a '' prophet'') by a supernatural entity. Prophecies are a feature of many cultures and belief systems and usually contain divine will or law, or pr ...
, sometimes referring back to old traditions. For example, in J. R. R. Tolkien
John Ronald Reuel Tolkien (, ; 3 January 1892 – 2 September 1973) was an English writer and philologist. He was the author of the high fantasy works ''The Hobbit'' and ''The Lord of the Rings''.
From 1925 to 1945, Tolkien was the Rawlins ...
's ''The Lord of the Rings
''The Lord of the Rings'' is an epic high-fantasy novel by English author and scholar J. R. R. Tolkien. Set in Middle-earth, intended to be Earth at some time in the distant past, the story began as a sequel to Tolkien's 1937 children's boo ...
'', many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague 'feelings'. The character Galadriel
Galadriel (IPA: Help:IPA, aˈladri.ɛl is a Character (arts), character created by J. R. R. Tolkien in his Middle-earth writings. She appears in ''The Lord of the Rings'', ''The Silmarillion'', and ''Unfinished Tales''.
She ...
, in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events.
In some of Philip K. Dick's stories, mutant humans called ''precogs'' can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In the story called '' The Golden Man'', an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his death), and thus becomes completely non-human, an animal that follows the predicted paths automatically. Precogs also play an essential role in another of Dick's stories, ''The Minority Report
"The Minority Report" is a 1956 science fiction novella by American writer Philip K. Dick, first published in ''Fantastic Universe''. In a future society, three mutants foresee all crime before it occurs. Plugged into a great machine, these " p ...
'', which was turned into a film
A film also called a movie, motion picture, moving picture, picture, photoplay or (slang) flick is a work of visual art that simulates experiences and otherwise communicates ideas, stories, perceptions, feelings, beauty, or atmosphere ...
by Steven Spielberg
Steven Allan Spielberg (; born December 18, 1946) is an American director, writer, and producer. A major figure of the New Hollywood era and pioneer of the modern blockbuster, he is the most commercially successful director of all time. Spie ...
in 2002.
In the ''Foundation
Foundation may refer to:
* Foundation (nonprofit), a type of charitable organization
** Foundation (United States law), a type of charitable organization in the U.S.
** Private foundation, a charitable organization that, while serving a good cause ...
'' series by Isaac Asimov
yi, יצחק אזימאװ
, birth_date =
, birth_place = Petrovichi, Russian SFSR
, spouse =
, relatives =
, children = 2
, death_date =
, death_place = Manhattan, New York City, U.S.
, nationality = Russian (1920–1922)Soviet (192 ...
, a mathematician finds out that historical events (up to some detail) can be theoretically modelled using equations, and then spends years trying to put the theory in practice. The new science of psychohistory
Psychohistory is an amalgam of psychology, history, and related social sciences and the humanities. Its proponents claim to examine the "why" of history, especially the difference between stated intention and actual behavior. Psychobiography, chil ...
founded upon his success can simulate history and extrapolate the present into the future.
In Frank Herbert's sequels to 1965's ''Dune
A dune is a landform composed of wind- or water-driven sand. It typically takes the form of a mound, ridge, or hill. An area with dunes is called a dune system or a dune complex. A large dune complex is called a dune field, while broad, f ...
'', his characters are dealing with the repercussions of being able to see the possible futures and select amongst them. Herbert sees this as a trap of stagnation, and his characters follow a so-called " Golden Path" out of the trap.
In Ursula K. Le Guin
Ursula Kroeber Le Guin (; October 21, 1929 – January 22, 2018) was an American author best known for her works of speculative fiction, including science fiction works set in her Hainish universe, and the '' Earthsea'' fantasy series. She was ...
's ''The Left Hand of Darkness
''The Left Hand of Darkness'' is a science fiction novel by U.S. writer Ursula K. Le Guin. Published in 1969, it became immensely popular, and established Le Guin's status as a major author of science fiction. The novel is set in the fiction ...
'', the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device.
Poetry
For the ancients, prediction, prophesy, and poetry were often intertwined. Prophecies were given in verse, and a word for poet in Latin is “vates” or prophet. Both poets and prophets claimed to be inspired by forces outside themselves. In contemporary cultures, theological revelation and poetry are typically seen as distinct and often even as opposed to each other. Yet the two still are often understood together as symbiotic in their origins, aims, and purposes.
See also
* Expectation
* Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual ...
* Famous predictions
* Futures studies
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will l ...
* Omen
* Oracle
* Predictability
Predictability is the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast of a system's state can be made, either qualitatively or quantitatively.
Predictability and causality
Causal determinism has a strong relationship with predictability. Perf ...
* Prediction market
Prediction markets (also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives) are open markets where specific outcomes can be predicted using financial incentives. Essentially, they are exchange-trad ...
* Predictive medicine
* Predictive modelling
* Prognosis
Prognosis (Greek: πρόγνωσις "fore-knowing, foreseeing") is a medical term for predicting the likely or expected development of a disease, including whether the signs and symptoms will improve or worsen (and how quickly) or remain stabl ...
* Prognostics
Prognostics is an engineering discipline focused on predicting the time at which a system or a component will no longer perform its intended function. This lack of performance is most often a failure beyond which the system can no longer be used to ...
* Reference class forecasting
Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos ...
* Regression analysis
In statistical modeling, regression analysis is a set of statistical processes for estimating the relationships between a dependent variable (often called the 'outcome' or 'response' variable, or a 'label' in machine learning parlance) and one ...
* Thought experiment
A thought experiment is a hypothetical situation in which a hypothesis, theory, or principle is laid out for the purpose of thinking through its consequences.
History
The ancient Greek ''deiknymi'' (), or thought experiment, "was the most anc ...
* Trend estimation
Linear trend estimation is a statistical technique to aid interpretation of data. When a series of measurements of a process are treated as, for example, a sequences or time series, trend estimation can be used to make and justify statements abou ...
Footnotes
Further reading
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Scientific method