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Reference Class Forecasting
Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics. Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. Discussion of which reference class to use when forecasting a given situation is known as the reference class problem. Overview Kahneman and Tversky Decision Research Technical Report PTR-1042-77-6. In found that human judgment is generally optimistic due to overconfidence and insufficient consideration of distributional information about outcomes. People tend to underestimate the costs, completion times, and risks of planned actions, whereas they tend to overestimate the benefits ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Daniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman (; he, דניאל כהנמן; born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (shared with Vernon L. Smith). His empirical findings challenge the assumption of human rationality prevailing in modern economic theory. With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors that arise from heuristics and biases, and developed prospect theory. In 2011 he was named by '' Foreign Policy'' magazine in its list of top global thinkers. In the same year his book '' Thinking, Fast and Slow'', which summarizes much of his research, was published and became a best seller. In 2015, ''The Economist'' listed him as the seventh most influential economist in the world. He is professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
AACE International
AACE International (Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering) was founded in 1956 by 59 cost estimators and cost engineers during the organizational meeting of the American Association of Cost Engineering at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, New Hampshire. AACE International Headquarters is located in Morgantown, West Virginia, USA. AACE is a 501(c)(3) non-profit professional association. AACE International is a member of the Board of the Council of Engineering and Scientific Specialty Boards (CESB). Activities AACE is a non-profit organization with about 15 employees at its headquarters in Morgantown, WV. A variety of other organizations in the United States provide similar certifications, often specialized for particular industries, such as power, manufacturing, gas and oil. AACE is the publisher of ''Cost Engineering'', a bi-monthly technical journal, ''Skills and Knowledge of Cost Engineering'' (currently in its 6th edition), Source magazine (a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation is a systematic determination and assessment of a subject's merit, worth and significance, using criteria governed by a set of standards. It can assist an organization, program, design, project or any other intervention or initiative to assess any aim, realisable concept/proposal, or any alternative, to help in decision-making; or to ascertain the degree of achievement or value in regard to the aim and objectives and results of any such action that has been completed. The primary purpose of evaluation, in addition to gaining insight into prior or existing initiatives, is to enable reflection and assist in the identification of future change. Evaluation is often used to characterize and appraise subjects of interest in a wide range of human enterprises, including the arts, criminal justice, foundations, non-profit organizations, government, health care, and other human services. It is long term and done at the end of a period of time. Definition Evaluation is the s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Reference Class Problem
In statistics, the reference class problem is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the probability applicable to a particular case. For example, to estimate the probability of an aircraft crashing, we could refer to the frequency of crashes among various different sets of aircraft: all aircraft, this make of aircraft, aircraft flown by this company in the last ten years, etc. In this example, the aircraft for which we wish to calculate the probability of a crash is a member of many different classes, in which the frequency of crashes differs. It is not obvious which class we should refer to for this aircraft. In general, any case is a member of very many classes among which the frequency of the attribute of interest differs. The reference class problem discusses which class is the most appropriate to use. More formally, many arguments in statistics take the form of a statistical syllogism: #X proportion of F are G #I is an F #Therefore, the chance that I is ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Planning Fallacy
The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned. The bias affects predictions only about one's own tasks; when outside observers predict task completion times, they tend to exhibit a pessimistic bias, overestimating the time needed. The planning fallacy involves estimates of task completion times more optimistic than those encountered in similar projects in the past. The planning fallacy was first proposed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. In 2003, Lovallo and Kahneman proposed an expanded definition as the tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions and at the same time overestimate the benefits of the same actions. According to this definition, the plann ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hofstadter's Law
Hofstadter's law is a self-referential adage, coined by Douglas Hofstadter in his book '' Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid'' (1979) to describe the widely experienced difficulty of accurately estimating the time it will take to complete tasks of substantial complexity:''Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid''. 20th anniversary ed., 1999, p. 152. . The law is often cited by programmers in discussions of techniques to improve productivity, such as ''The Mythical Man-Month'' or extreme programming. History In 1979, Hofstadter introduced the law in connection with a discussion of chess-playing computers, which at the time were continually being beaten by top-level human players, despite outpacing humans in depth of analysis Analysis ( : analyses) is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts in order to gain a better understanding of it. The technique has been applied in the study of mathematics and logic since before Aris ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Financial Risk
Financial risk is any of various types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default. Often it is understood to include only downside risk, meaning the potential for financial loss and uncertainty about its extent. A science has evolved around managing market and financial risk under the general title of modern portfolio theory initiated by Dr. Harry Markowitz in 1952 with his article, "Portfolio Selection". In modern portfolio theory, the variance (or standard deviation) of a portfolio is used as the definition of risk. Types According to Bender and Panz (2021), financial risks can be sorted into five different categories. In their study, they apply an algorithm-based framework and identify 193 single financial risk types, which are sorted into the five categories market risk, liquidity risk, credit risk, business risk and investment risk. Market risk The four standard market risk factors are eq ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Event Chain Methodology
Event chain methodology is a network analysis technique that is focused on identifying and managing events and relationship between them (event chains) that affect project schedules. It is an uncertainty modeling schedule technique. Event chain methodology is an extension of quantitative project risk analysis with Monte Carlo simulations. It is the next advance beyond critical path method and critical chain project management. Event chain methodology tries to mitigate the effect of motivational and cognitive biases in estimating and scheduling. It improves accuracy of risk assessment and helps to generate more realistic risk adjusted project schedules. History Event chain methodology is an extension of traditional Monte Carlo simulation of project schedules where uncertainties in task duration and costs are defined by statistical distribution. For example, task duration can be defined by three point estimates: low, base, and high. The results of analysis is a risk adjusted pro ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cost Overrun
A cost overrun, also known as a cost increase or budget overrun, involves unexpected incurred costs. When these costs are in excess of budgeted amounts due to a value engineering underestimation of the actual cost during budgeting, they are known by these terms. Cost overruns are common in infrastructure, building, and technology projects. For IT projects, a 2004 industry study by the Standish Group found an average cost overrun of 43 percent; 71 percent of projects came in over budget, exceeded time estimates, and had estimated too narrow a scope; and total waste was estimated at $55 billion per year in the US alone. Many major construction projects have incurred cost overruns; cost estimates used to decide whether important transportation infrastructure should be built can mislead grossly and systematically. Cost overrun is distinguished from cost escalation, which is an ''anticipated'' growth in a budgeted cost due to factors such as inflation. Causes Recent works by Ahi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Consensus Forecast
Used in a number of sciences, ranging from econometrics to meteorology, consensus forecasts are predictions of the future that are created by combining together several separate forecasts which have often been created using different methodologies. Also known as ''combining forecasts'', ''forecast averaging'' or ''model averaging'' (in econometrics and statistics) and ''committee machines'', '' ensemble averaging'' or ''expert aggregation'' (in machine learning). Applications can range from forecasting the weather to predicting the annual Gross Domestic Product of a country or the number of cars a company or an individual dealer is likely to sell in a year. While forecasts are often made for future values of a time series, they can also be for one-off events such as the outcome of a presidential election or a football match. Background Forecasting plays a key role in any organisation's planning process as it provides insight into uncertainty. Through simulation, one will be able ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Benefit Shortfall
When the actual benefits of a venture are less than the projected or estimated benefits, the result is known as a benefit shortfall. If, for instance, a company is launching a new product or service and projected sales are 40 million dollars per year, whereas actual annual sales turn out to be only 30 million dollars, then the benefit shortfall is said to be 25 percent. Sometimes the terms "demand shortfall" or "revenue shortfall" are used instead of benefit shortfall. Public and private enterprises alike fall victim to benefit shortfalls. Prudent planning of new ventures will include the risk of benefit shortfalls in risk assessment and risk management. The discipline of benefits realisation management seeks to identify any benefits shortfall as early as possible in a project or programmes delivery in order to allow corrective action to be taken, costs to be controlled and benefits realised. See also *Cost overrun * Cost-benefit analysis *Downside risk *Efficient contract t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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