Political Upset

An upset occurs in a competition, frequently in electoral politics or sports, when the party popularly expected to win (the "favorite"), either loses to or draws/ties a game with an underdog whom the majority expects to lose, defying the conventional wisdom. If it happens in a cup competition, it is sometimes referred to as a "cupset" (a portmanteau, combining the words "cup" and "upset"). It is often used in reference to beating the betting odds in sports, or beating the opinion polls in electoral politics.

Origin

The meaning of the word "upset" has long included "an overthrowing or overturn of ideas, plans, etc." (see OED definition 6b), from which the sports definition almost surely derived. "Upset" also once referred to "a curved part of a bridle-bit, fitting over the tongue of the horse", (now the port of a curb bit) but, even though the modern sports meaning of "upset" was first used far more for horse races than for any other competition, there is no evidence of a connection

In 2002, George Thompson, a lexicographic researcher, used the full-text online search capabilities of '' The New York Times'' databases to trace the usage of the verb ''to upset'' and the noun ''upset''. The latter was seen in usage as early as 1877.

Thompson's research debunked one popular theory of the term's origin, namely that it was first used after the surprising defeat of the horse Man o' War by the racehorse Upset in 1919 (the loss was the only one in Man o' War's career) .
The term pre-dates that 1919 Thoroughbred race by at least several decades. In its sports coverage immediately following Upset's victory, '' the Washington Post'' wrote, "One might make all sorts of puns about it being an upset."
The name of the horse "Upset" came from the "trouble" or "distress" meaning of the word (as shown by the parallelism of the name of Upset's stablemate, Regret).

Sports

Below is a selection of major upsets from a variety of popular sports around the world. It is not meant to be comprehensive, merely representative.

American football

*Heading into the 2007 college football season, the Michigan Wolverines were ranked as the pre-season Number 5 team, and among the favorites for that year's BCS National Championship. As an early season tune-up game, Michigan had booked the lower division Appalachian State Mountaineers for their first game of the season. The Mountaineers surprised the football world by leading 28–17 at the half. Though Michigan clawed their way back to lead 32–31 late into the fourth quarter, the Mountaineers kicked a field goal with 26 seconds left in the game to take the lead 34–32. Michigan managed to use only 20 seconds of game time to drive the ball down to the App State 27-yard line, and as time was expiring the Mountaineers Corey Lynch blocked a Michigan field goal attempt to secure the upset for App State. The game marked only the second time, to that point, that a lower-division school had beaten a top-division AP-ranked team.

*In Super Bowl III, the senior National Football League was playing their third interleague championship game against the upstart American Football League. The NFL had won the prior two matchups without much difficulty, and it looked poised to do so again, as the Baltimore Colts, with a 13–1 record, behind quarterback Earl Morrall, who led the league in touchdown passes that season and was named NFL Most Valuable Player. The team also had several future Hall of Fame players on the roster, including quarterback Johnny Unitas, relegated to a back-up role following an early-season injury, tight end John Mackey, as well as a defense led by perennial all-pro Bubba Smith. The New York Jets were led by Joe Namath at quarterback, who earlier in the week had "guaranteed" victory against the Colts. Namath's top target, future Hall of Fame wide receiver Don Maynard, was hobbled by an injury, but Namath led the Jets on a run-focused attack that leaned heavily on fullback Matt Snell, who ran for 121 yards and scored the Jets' only touchdown. The Jets defense confounded Morrall, who had only six completions on 17 attempts, with three interceptions in the first half, including an interception to the Jets' Jim Hudson while Colts' star receiver Jimmy Orr, uncovered in the end zone, waved his hands to no avail. Colts' head coach Don Shula put the hobbled Unitas in the game in the second half, and despite a late game touchdown, lost the game 16–7.

Association football

*Examples of a "giant-killing" non-league team ( Levels 5 to 10) beating a Level 1 opponent in the English FA Cup are National League side Lincoln City's away victory over Premier League side Burnley in the 2016–17 FA Cup and Conference Premier side Luton Town's away victory over the Premier League's Norwich City in the 2012–13 Fourth Round Proper. This was the first defeat of a top flight team by non-league opposition since 1989, when Sutton United claimed a 2–1 victory at home over Coventry City, who had won the FA Cup two seasons earlier and finished that season seventh in the First Division.

*A major upset in Spanish football was the Alcorconazo

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