Quantification
Detailed classification schemes have been devized by industry specialists to quantify volumes of oil & gas accumulated underground (known as "subsurface"). These schemes provide management and investors with the means to make quantitative and relative comparisons between assets, before underwriting the significant cost of exploring for, developing and extracting those accumulations. Classification schemes are used to categorize the uncertainty in volume estimates of the recoverable oil & gas and the chance that they exist in reality (or risk that they do not) depending on the resource maturity. Potential subsurface oil & gas accumulations identified during exploration are classified and reported as prospective resources. Resources are re-classified as reserves followingReserves and resource reporting
An oil or gas resource refers to known (discovered ''fields'') or ''potential'' accumulations of oil and/or gas (''i.e'' undiscovered ''prospects'' and ''leads'') in the subsurface of the Earth's crust. All reserve and resource estimates involve uncertainty in volume estimates (expressed below as Low, Mid or High uncertainty), as well as a risk or chance to exist in reality, depending on the level of appraisal or resource maturity that governs the amount of reliable geologic and engineering data available and the interpretation of those data. Estimating and monitoring of reserves provides an insight into, for example, a company’s future production and a country’s oil & gas supply potential. As such, reserves are an important means of expressing value and longevity of resources. In the ''PRMS'', the terms ‘Resources’ and ‘Reserves’ have distinct and specific meaning with respect to oil & gas accumulations and hydrocarbon exploration in general. However, the level of rigor required in applying these terms varies depending on the resource maturity which informs reporting requirements. Oil & gas reserves are resources that are, or are reasonably certain to be, commercial (i.e. profitable). Reserves are the main asset of an oil & gas company; ''booking'' is the process by which they are added to the balance sheet. Contingent and prospective resource estimates are much more speculative and are not booked with the same degree of rigor, generally for internal company use only, reflecting a more limited data set and assessment maturity. If published externally, these volumes add to the perception ofReserves
Reserves reporting of discovered accumulations is regulated by tight controls for informed investment decisions to quantify differing degrees of uncertainty in recoverable volumes. Reserves are defined in three sub-categories according to the system used in the PRMS: Proven (1P), Probable and Possible. Reserves defined as Probable and Possible are incremental (or additional) discovered volumes based on geological and/or engineering criteria similar to those used in estimating Proven reserves. Though not classified as contingent, some technical, contractual, or regulatory uncertainties preclude such reserves being classified as Proven. The most accepted definitions of these are based on those originally approved by the SPE and the WPC in 1997, requiring that reserves are discovered, recoverable, commercial and remaining based on rules governing the classification into sub-categories and the declared development project plans applied. Probable and Possible reserves may be used internally by oil companies and government agencies for future planning purposes but are not routinely or uniformly compiled.Proven reserves
Proven reserves are discovered volumes claimed to have a ''reasonable certainty'' of being recoverable under existing economic and political conditions, and with existing technology. Industry specialists refer to this category as "P90" (that is, having a 90% certainty of producing or exceeding the P90 volume on the probability distribution). Proven reserves are also known in the industry as 1P. Proven reserves may be referred to as proven developed (PD) or as proven undeveloped (PUD). PD reserves are reserves that can be produced with existing wells and perforations, or from additional reservoirs where minimal additional investment (operating expense) is required (''e.g.'' opening a set of perforations already installed). PUD reserves require additional capital investment (e.g., drilling new wells) to bring the oil and/or gas to the surface. Accounting for production is an important exercise for businesses. Produced oil or gas that has been brought to surface (production) and sold on international markets or refined in-country are no longer reserves and are removed from the booking and company balance sheets. Until January 2010, "1P" proven reserves were the only type the U.S. ''SEC'' allowed oil companies to report to investors. Companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges may be called upon to verify their claims confidentially, but many governments andProbable and Possible reserves
Probable additional reserves are attributed to known accumulations and the probabilistic, cumulative sum of proven and probable reserves (with a probability of P50), also referred to in the industry as "2P" (Proven plus Probable) The P50 designation means that there should be at least a 50% chance that the actual volumes recovered will be equal to or will exceed the 2P estimate. Possible additional reserves are attributed to known accumulations that have a lower chance of being recovered than probable reserves. Reasons for assigning a lower probability to recovering Possible reserves include varying interpretations of geology, uncertainty due to reserve infill (associated with variability in seepage towards a production well from adjacent areas) and projected reserves based on future recovery methods. The probabilistic, cumulative sum of proven, probable and possible reserves is referred to in the industry as "3P" (proven plus probable plus possible) where there is a 10% chance of delivering or exceeding the P10 volume.(''ibid'')Resource estimates
Resource estimates are undiscovered volumes, or volumes that have not yet been drilled and flowed to surface. A ''non-reserve resource'', by definition, does not have to be technically or commercially recoverable and can be represented by a single, or an aggregate of multiple potential accumulations, e.g. an estimated geological basin resource. There are two non-reserve resource categories:Contingent resources
Once a discovery has been made, prospective resources can be reclassified as ''contingent resources''. Contingent resources are those accumulations or fields that are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development, where development is ''contingent'' on one or more conditions changing. The uncertainty in the estimates for recoverable oil & gas volumes is expressed in a probability distribution and is sub-classified based on project maturity and/or economic status (1C, 2C, 3C, ''ibid'') and in addition are assigned a risk, or chance, to exist in reality (POS or COS).Prospective resources
''Prospective resources'', being undiscovered, have the widest range in volume uncertainties and carry the highest risk or chance to be present in reality (POS or COS). At the exploration stage (before discovery) they are categorized by the wide range of volume uncertainties (typically ''P90-P50-P10''). In the PRMS the range of volumes is classified by the abbreviations 1U, 2U and 3U again reflecting the degrees of uncertainty. Companies are commonly not required to report publicly their views of prospective resources but may choose to do so voluntarily.Estimation techniques
The total estimated quantity (volumes) of oil and/or gas contained in a subsurface reservoir, is called oil or gas initially in place (Analog (YTF) method
Analogs are applied to prospective resources in areas where there are little, or sometimes no, existing data available to inform analysts about the likely potential of an opportunity or play segment. Analog-only techniques are called yet-to-find (''YTF''), and involve identifying areas containing producing assets that are geologically similar to those being estimated and substituting data to match what is known about a segment. The opportunity segment can be scaled to any level depending on the specific interest of the analyst, whether at a global, country, basin, structural domain, play, license or reservoir level. YTF is conceptual and is commonly used as a method for scoping potential in frontier areas where there is no oil or gas production or where new play concepts are being introduced with perceived potential. However, analog content can also be substituted for any subsurface parameters where there are gaps in data in more mature reserves or resource settings (below).Volumetric method
Oil & gas Volumes can be calculated using a volume equation:''Recoverable volume = Gross Rock Volume * Net/Gross * Porosity * Oil or Gas Saturation * Volume Factor * Recovery Factor''... where the ''gross rock volume'' describes the entire rock unit containing oil and/or gas, the ''Net/Gross'' discounts non-reservoir portions of the reservoir interval, the ''porosity'' describes the percentage of that net reservoir representing effective pore space (discounting reservoir matrix), the ''hydrocarbon saturation'' describes how much of the pore space is occupied by oil and/or gas (mixed with water), the ''volume factor'' defines the volume of oil (and dissolved gas) at reservoir pressure and temperature required to produce one stock tank barrel of oil at the surface and the ''recovery factor'' is expressed as the ratio between in-place and recoverable volumes. Deterministic volumes are calculated when single values are used as input parameters to this equation, which could include analog content. Probabilistic volumes are calculations when uncertainty distributions are applied as input to all or some of the terms of the equation (see also Copula (probability theory)), which preserve dependencies between parameters. These geostatistical methods are most commonly applied to ''prospective resources'' that still need to be tested by the drill bit. ''Contingent resources'' are also characterized by volumetric methods with analog content and uncertainty distributions before significant production has occurred, where spatial distribution information may be preserved in a static reservoir model. Static models and dynamic flow models can be populated with analog reservoir performance data to increase the confidence in forecasting as the amount and quality of static geoscientific and dynamic reservoir performance data increase.
Performance-based methods
Once production has commenced, production rates and pressure data allow a degree of prediction on reservoir performance, which was previously characterized by substituting analog data. Analog data can still be substituted for expected reservoir performance where specific dynamic data may be missing, representing a "best technical" outcome.Reservoir simulation
''Reservoir simulation'' is an area of reservoir engineering in which computer models are used to predict theMaterials balance method
The ''materials balance method'' for an oil or gas field uses an equation that relates the volume of oil, water and gas that has been produced from a reservoir and the change in reservoir pressure to calculate the remaining oil & gas. It assumes that, as fluids from the reservoir are produced, there will be a change in the reservoir pressure that depends on the remaining volume of oil & gas. The method requires extensive pressure-volume-temperature analysis and an accurate pressure history of the field. It requires some production to occur (typically 5% to 10% of ultimate recovery), unless reliable pressure history can be used from a field with similar rock and fluid characteristics.Production decline curve method
The ''decline curve method'' is an extrapolation of known production data to fit a decline curve and estimate future oil & gas production. The three most common forms of decline curves are exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic. It is assumed that the production will decline on a reasonably smooth curve, and so allowances must be made for wells shut in and production restrictions. The curve can be expressed mathematically or plotted on a graph to estimate future production. It has the advantage of (implicitly) conflating all reservoir characteristics. It requires a sufficient production history to establish a statistically significant trend, ideally when production is not curtailed by regulatory or other artificial conditions.Reserves growth
Experience shows that initial estimates of the size of newly discovered oil & gas fields are usually too low. As years pass, successive estimates of the ultimate recovery of fields tend to increase. The term ''reserve growth'' refers to the typical increases (but narrowing range) of estimated ultimate recovery that occur as oil & gas fields are developed and produced. Many oil-producing nations do not reveal their reservoir engineering field data and instead provide unaudited claims for their oil reserves. The numbers disclosed by some national governments are suspected of being manipulated for political reasons. In order to achieve international goals for decarbonisation, theUnconventional reservoirs
The categories and estimation techniques framed by the PRMS above apply to conventional reservoirs, where oil & gas accumulations are controlled by hydrodynamic interactions between the buoyancy of oil & gas in water versus capillary forces. Oil or gas in unconventional reservoirs are much more tightly bound to rock matrices in excess of capillary forces and therefore require different approaches to both extraction and resource estimation. Unconventional reservoirs or accumulations also require different means of identification and include ''coalbed methane'' (CBM), ''basin-centered gas'' (low permeability), low permeability ''tight gas'' (including ''shale gas'') and tight oil (including ''shale oil''), gas hydrates, natural bitumen (very high viscosity oil), and oil shale (kerogen) deposits. Ultra low permeability reservoirs exhibit a half slope on a log-plot of flow-rates against time believed to be caused by drainage from matrix surfaces into adjoining fractures. Such reservoirs are commonly believed to be regionally pervasive that may be interrupted by regulatory or ownership boundaries with the potential for large oil & gas volumes, which are very hard to verify. Non-unique flow characteristics in unconventional accumulations means that commercial viability depends on the technology applied to extraction. Extrapolations from a single control point, and thereby resource estimation, are dependent on nearby producing analogs with evidence of economic viability. Under these circumstances, pilot projects may be needed to define reserves. Any other resource estimates are likely to be analog-only derived YTF volumes, which are speculative.See also
* Extraction of petroleum *References & Notes
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