The next Portuguese legislative election will take place on or before 11 October 2026 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 16th Legislature of Portugal. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.

Background

The

Socialist Party Socialist Party is the name of many different political parties around the world. All of these parties claim to uphold some form of socialism, though they may have very different interpretations of what "socialism" means. Statistically, most of th ...

(PS), led by Prime Minister

António Costa António Luís Santos da Costa GCIH (; born 17 July 1961) is a Portuguese lawyer and politician serving as the 119th and current prime minister of Portugal since 26 November 2015, presiding over the XXI (2015–2019), XXII (2019–2022) and ...

, won an absolute majority in the 2022 legislative election with 41% of the votes and 120 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic. The main opposition party, the

Social Democratic Party The name Social Democratic Party or Social Democrats has been used by many political parties in various countries around the world. Such parties are most commonly aligned to social democracy as their political ideology. Active parties For ...

(PSD), got 77 seats and 29% of the votes, while far-right party Chega (''Enough'') gain 12 seats and 7%. The

Liberal Initiative The Liberal Initiative ( pt, Iniciativa Liberal, , IL) is a liberal political party in Portugal currently led by João Cotrim de Figueiredo. In 2019, its debut year at the Portuguese legislative elections, the party won one seat in the Portugu ...

(IL) were able to win 8 seats and gather almost 5% of the votes. The far-left parties, the

Portuguese Communist Party The Portuguese Communist Party ( pt, Partido Comunista Português, , PCP) is a communist, Marxist–Leninist political party in Portugal based upon democratic centralism. The party also considers itself patriotic and internationalist,Portugue ...

(PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved one of their worst results ever with 4% of the votes and 6 and 5 seats, respectively. PAN and LIVRE were able to win just one seat each. António Costa's third government was sworn in on 30 March 2022. This government has been hit with several scandals and/or controversies and until mid 2023, the government had already suffered 13 resignations, 11 Secretaries of state and 2

Ministers Minister may refer to: * Minister (Christianity), a Christian cleric ** Minister (Catholic Church) * Minister (government), a member of government who heads a ministry (government department) ** Minister without portfolio, a member of governme ...

. The main controversy that engulfed the government was a case regarding

TAP Air Portugal TAP Air Portugal is the currently state-owned flag carrier airline of Portugal, headquartered at Lisbon Airport which also serves as its hub. TAP – Transportes Aéreos Portugueses – has been a member of the Star Alliance since 2005 and oper ...

and a reparation payment to a government member, Alexandra Reis. This case was followed by an incident, in late April 2023, at the Ministry of Infrastructure building between government staff and an advisor to Minister João Galamba regarding an alleged stolen laptop. The use of the Portuguese Secret Services in this case generated a clash between

President President most commonly refers to: *President (corporate title) *President (education), a leader of a college or university *President (government title) President may also refer to: Automobiles * Nissan President, a 1966–2010 Japanese ful ...

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa Marcelo Nuno Duarte Rebelo de Sousa (; born 12 December 1948) is a Portuguese politician and academic. He is the List of presidents of Portugal, 20th and current president of Portugal, since 9 March 2016. He is a member of the Social Democrati ...

and Prime Minister António Costa regarding the continuity of minister João Galamba and of the government itself.

Politics of Portugal

The

President of Portugal The president of Portugal, officially the president of the Portuguese Republic ( pt, Presidente da República Portuguesa, ), is the head of state and highest office of Portugal. The powers, functions and duties of prior presidential offices, an ...

has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by their own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the

Prime Minister A prime minister, premier or chief of cabinet is the head of the cabinet and the leader of the ministers in the executive branch of government, often in a parliamentary or semi-presidential system. Under those systems, a prime minister is not ...

or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President must appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government.

Date

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the

but is not called at the request of the

; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election. If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 11 October 2026.

Leadership changes and challenges

CDS – People's Party

In the 2022 elections, the CDS–People's Party was wiped out from Parliament for the first time in 47 years of democracy. CDS leader

Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos Francisco José Nina Martins Rodrigues dos Santos (born 29 September 1988) is a Portuguese conservative politician and a lawyer. He was elected President of the CDS – People's Party in the National Congress of the Party in Aveiro, with 46% of ...

resigned on election night and announced that a leadership ballot would be held. On 11 February, it was announced that a new leader would be elected in a party congress on 2 and 3 April 2022 held in

Guimarães Guimarães () is a city and municipality located in northern Portugal, in the district of Braga. Its historic town centre has been listed as a UNESCWorld Heritage Sitesince 2001, in recognition for being an "exceptionally well-preserved and a ...

. MEP Nuno Melo, former MP Nuno Correia da Silva, 2016 leadership candidate Miguel Mattos Chaves and Bruno Filipe Costa announced they would contest the ballot. During the congress, Bruno Filipe Costa and Nuno Correia da Silva dropped out from the race. Nuno Melo was easily elected as leader with more than 73% of the votes. The results were the following: , - style="background-color:#0c68b0" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px", Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px", Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px", % , - , bgcolor=, , align=left , Nuno Melo , align=right , 854 , align=right , 77.5 , - , bgcolor=, , align=left , Miguel Mattos Chaves , align=right , 104 , align=right , 9.4 , - , bgcolor=, , align=left , Others , align=right , 144 , align=right , 13.1 , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" , colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" , Turnout , align=right , 1,102 , align=center , , - , colspan="4" align=left, Source
Results

Social Democratic Party

After the Social Democratic Party's (PSD) defeat in the 2022 legislative election,

Rui Rio Rui Fernando da Silva Rio (born 6 August 1957) is a Portuguese economist and politician of the Social Democratic Party (PSD). He was the Mayor of Porto from 2002 to 2013. Between 2018 and 2022, he was President of the PSD and Leader of the Opp ...

announced he would not run again for the PSD leadership and would call a snap leadership ballot in order to elect a new leader. The ballot was held on 28 May 2022.

Luís Montenegro Luís Filipe Montenegro Cardoso de Morais Esteves (born 16 February 1973) is a Portuguese politician who is the President of the Social Democratic Party (PSD). He was a member of the Assembly of the Republic from the Aveiro District from 2002 ...

, former PSD parliamentary group leader (2011-2018), and

Jorge Moreira da Silva Jorge Manuel Lopes Moreira da Silva GOIH (born 24 April 1971 in Vila Nova de Famalicão) is a Portuguese engineer and politician of the Social Democratic Party serving as the Executive Director of the United Nations Office for Project Services, ...

, former Environment minister (2013-2015), were the only candidates on the ballot. Around 45,000 party members, out of more than 85,000 active members, registered to vote. Montenegro defeated Moreira da Silva by a landslide, becoming the 19th leader of the PSD. The results were the following: , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px", Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px", Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px", % , - , bgcolor=orange, , align=left ,

, align=right , 19,241 , align=right , 72.5 , - , bgcolor=orange, , align=left ,

, align=right , 7,306 , align=right , 27.5 , - , colspan=2 align=left , Blank/Invalid ballots , align=right , 437 , align=right , – , - , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" , colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" , Turnout , align=right , 26,984 , align=right , 60.46 , - , colspan="4" align=left, Source
Official results

Portuguese Communist Party

On 5 November 2022, the

(PCP) announced that

Jerónimo de Sousa Jerónimo Carvalho de Sousa (; born 13 April 1947) is a Portugal, Portuguese politician who served as General Secretary of the Portuguese Communist Party from the 17th Congress of the Party in November 2004 to the party's National Conference in N ...

, party leader since 2004, was departing from the leadership because of health reasons and the demands that the post requires. The party choose

Paulo Raimundo Paulo Alexandre Raimundo (born 1976) is a Portugal, Portuguese politician who has served as General Secretary of the Portuguese Communist Party since the party's National Conference in November 2022. References

Portuguese Communist Pa ...

, a party employee and member since 1994, as new leader whose nomination was confirmed in a Central Committee meeting on 12 November 2022 by unanimous vote, with one abstention, from Raimundo himself. The results were the following: , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px", Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px", Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px", % , - , bgcolor=#f00, , align=left ,

Portuguese Communist Pa ...

, align=right , 128 , align=right , 99.2 , - , colspan=2 align=left , Against , align=right , 0 , align=right , 0.0 , - , colspan=2 align=left , Abstention , align=right , 1 , align=right , 0.8 , - , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" , colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" , Turnout , align=right , 129 , align=center , , - , colspan="4" align=left, Source
Results

Liberal Initiative

On 23 October 2022, party leader

João Cotrim Figueiredo João is the Portuguese equivalent of the given name John. The diminutive is Joãozinho and the feminine is Joana. It is widespread in Portuguese-speaking countries. Notable people with the name are enumerated in the sections below. Kings * ...

announced he was leaving the party leadership and called a snap leadership ballot. Shortly after Cotrim's announcement, MP Rui Rocha from

Braga Braga ( , ; cel-x-proto, Bracara) is a city and a municipality, capital of the northwestern Portuguese district of Braga and of the historical and cultural Minho Province. Braga Municipality has a resident population of 193,333 inhabitants (in ...

, stepped forward and announced his intention to run for the leadership. Two days after,

Carla Castro Carla Maria Proença de Castro Charters de Azevedo, better known as Carla Castro (Lisbon, 6 April 1978), is a manager, professor, and Portuguese politician. She currently serves as a Member of Parliament in the Assembly of the Republic for the ...

, MP from

Lisbon Lisbon (; pt, Lisboa ) is the capital and largest city of Portugal, with an estimated population of 544,851 within its administrative limits in an area of 100.05 km2. Grande Lisboa, Lisbon's urban area extends beyond the city's administr ...

, also presented her candidacy to the leadership. A few weeks later, the party decided on a date, and location, for the leadership ballot and the new leader would be elected in a National Convention between 21 and 22 January 2023 in

. A third candidate for the leadership, José Cardoso, critic of Figueiredo's leadership and strategy, announced his candidacy on 2 January 2023. Around 2,300 party members registered to vote in the leadership convention. Rui Rocha was elected as the 4th President of the Liberal Initiative with almost 52% of the votes. The results were the following: , - style="background-color:#0c68b0" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px", Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px", Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px", % , - , bgcolor=#00ADEF, , align=left , Rui Rocha , align=right , 888 , align=right , 51.7 , - , bgcolor=#00ADEF, , align=left ,

, align=right , 757 , align=right , 44.0 , - , bgcolor=#00ADEF, , align=left , José Cardoso , align=right , 74 , align=right , 4.3 , - , colspan=2 align=left , Blank/Invalid ballots , align=right , 9 , align=right , – , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" , colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" , Turnout , align=right , 1,728 , align=right , 74.26 , - , colspan="4" align=left, Source:

People Animals Nature

People Animals Nature People–Animals–Nature ( pt, Pessoas-Animais-Natureza, PAN) is an environmentalist, animal rights and animal welfare focused political party in Portugal, founded in 2009. In 2015, they won one seat in the Assembly of the Republic.Inês Sousa Real Paula Inês Alves de Sousa Real (born 6 June 1980) is a Portuguese jurist and politician who is currently president of the People Animals Nature parliamentary group in the Assembly of the Republic (Portugal), Assembly of the Republic. At the PAN c ...

and Nelson Silva, MP between 2019 and 2022. Silva accused Sousa Real of leading the party to irrelevance and that now it's time to "save" and "rebuilt" the party. In a rather tense congress, with strong accusations between both sides, Inês Sousa Real was reelected as party leader with 73% of the votes. The results were the following: , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px", Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px", Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px", % , - , bgcolor=teal, , align=left ,

Inês Sousa Real Paula Inês Alves de Sousa Real (born 6 June 1980) is a Portuguese jurist and politician who is currently president of the People Animals Nature parliamentary group in the Assembly of the Republic (Portugal), Assembly of the Republic. At the PAN c ...

, align=right , 97 , align=right , 72.9 , - , bgcolor=teal, , align=left , Nelson Silva , align=right , 35 , align=right , 26.3 , - , colspan=2 align=left , Blank/Invalid ballots , align=right , 1 , align=right , 0.8 , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" , colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" , Turnout , align=right , 133 , align=center , , - , colspan="4" align=left, Source:

Left Bloc

On 14 February 2023, party coordinator

Catarina Martins Catarina Soares Martins (born 7 September 1973) is a Portuguese politician and actress. She is the national coordinator of the Left Bloc since 2012 and has been a member of the Assembly of the Republic for the Left Bloc since 2009. She traine ...

announced she would not run for another term as party leader. Her reasons were that the party needed someone new to lead it, that in the party there are not very long periods of leadership and that the "new political cycle" forces a change. A party leadership convention was held between 27 and 28 May 2023, in

. While names like MEP Marisa Matias and caucus leader Pedro Filipe Soares discarded a candidacy for the leadership, MP Mariana Mortágua decided to ran for the party leadership. Her candidacy was confirmed on 27 February 2023. A list of critics of the then party leadership, led by former MP Pedro Soares, opposed Mortágua in the convention ballot. On 28 May 2023, Mariana Mortágua was easily elected as new party coordinator with 83% of the delegates votes. The results were the following: , - style="background-color:#0c68b0" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px", Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px", Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px", % , - , bgcolor=, , align=left , Mariana Mortágua , align=right , 439 , align=right , 83.1 , - , bgcolor=, , align=left , Pedro Soares , align=right , 78 , align=right , 14.8 , - , colspan=2 align=left , Abstentions , align=right , 11 , align=right , 2.1 , - style="background-color:#E9E9E9" , colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" , Turnout , align=right , 528 , align=right , 80.74 , - , colspan="4" align=left, Source:

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a

motion of no confidence A motion of no confidence, also variously called a vote of no confidence, no-confidence motion, motion of confidence, or vote of confidence, is a statement or vote about whether a person in a position of responsibility like in government or mana ...

to be approved. The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the

district magnitude An electoral district, also known as an election district, legislative district, voting district, constituency, riding, ward, division, or (election) precinct is a subdivision of a larger state (a country, administrative region, or other polity ...

. The use of the

d'Hondt method The D'Hondt method, also called the Jefferson method or the greatest divisors method, is a method for allocating seats in parliaments among federal states, or in party-list proportional representation systems. It belongs to the class of highest- ...

makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the

Hare quota The Hare quota (also known as the simple quota) is a formula used under some forms of proportional representation. In these voting systems the quota is the number of votes that guarantees a candidate, or a party in some cases, captures a seat. Th ...

or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.Gallaher, Michael (1992).
Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities
The distribution of MPs by electoral district in the 2022 general election was the following:

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the Assembly of the Republic.

Opinion polling

Polling aggregations

Notes

References

External links

Marktest Opinion Poll Tracker

Official results site, Portuguese Justice Ministry

Portuguese Electoral Commission

ERC - Official publication of polls

{{Portuguese elections Future elections in Europe Legislative elections in Portugal