Estimate (foaled 4 April 2009) is an Irish-bred, British-trained

Thoroughbred The Thoroughbred is a horse breed best known for its use in horse racing. Although the word ''thoroughbred'' is sometimes used to refer to any breed of purebred horse, it technically refers only to the Thoroughbred breed. Thoroughbreds are c ...

racehorse Horse racing is an equestrian performance sport, typically involving two or more horses ridden by jockeys (or sometimes driven without riders) over a set distance for competition. It is one of the most ancient of all sports, as its basic pr ...

who won the Queen's Vase at

Royal Ascot Ascot Racecourse ("ascot" pronounced , often pronounced ) is a dual-purpose British racecourse, located in Ascot, Berkshire, England, which is used for thoroughbred horse racing. It hosts 13 of Britain's 36 annual Flat Group 1 horse races and ...

as a three-year-old. As a four-year-old she won the

Sagaro Stakes The Sagaro Stakes is a Group 3 flat horse race in Great Britain open to horses aged four years or older. It is run over a distance of 1 mile 7 furlongs and 209 yards () at Ascot in late April o ...

before returning to Royal Ascot to win the Gold Cup. She was owned by

Queen Elizabeth II Elizabeth II (Elizabeth Alexandra Mary; 21 April 1926 – 8 September 2022) was Queen of the United Kingdom and other Commonwealth realms from 6 February 1952 until Death and state funeral of Elizabeth II, her death in 2022. She was queen ...

and trained by

Sir Michael Stoute Sir Michael Ronald Stoute (born 22 October 1945) is a Barbadian British Thoroughbred horse trainer in flat racing. Career Stoute, whose father was the Chief of Police for Barbados, left the island in 1964 at the age of 19 to become an assis ...

. In 2014 she tested positive to

morphine Morphine is a strong opiate that is found naturally in opium, a dark brown resin in poppies (''Papaver somniferum''). It is mainly used as a analgesic, pain medication, and is also commonly used recreational drug, recreationally, or to make ...

in a post race drugs test and was disqualified from second place in the Gold Cup, but went on to win the Doncaster Cup.

Background

Estimate is a

bay A bay is a recessed, coastal body of water that directly connects to a larger main body of water, such as an ocean, a lake, or another bay. A large bay is usually called a Gulf (geography), gulf, sea, sound (geography), sound, or bight (geogra ...

filly A filly is a female horse that is too young to be called a mare. There are two specific definitions in use: *In most cases, a ''filly'' is a female horse under four years old. *In some nations, such as the United Kingdom and the United States, t ...

bred by the

Aga Khan Aga Khan ( fa, آقاخان, ar, آغا خان; also transliterated as ''Aqa Khan'' and ''Agha Khan'') is a title held by the Imām of the Nizari Ismāʿīli Shias. Since 1957, the holder of the title has been the 49th Imām, Prince Shah Karim ...

's Studs and foaled on 4 April 2009. She was sired by Monsun, who won the Europa Preis twice. He was also a successful stallion, siring

Shirocco Shirocco (foaled 10 April 2001) is a German Thoroughbred racehorse. He was trained in his native Germany by Andreas Schütz up to the end of his three-year-old season before moving to French trainer André Fabre to race as a four and five ye ...

Manduro Manduro (March 9, 2002 – June 27, 2020) was a World Champion Thoroughbred racehorse. He was a multiple Group One winner in Germany. Background Sired by Monsun, he was out of the mare Mandellicht, a daughter of Northern Dancer's son Be My Gu ...

and Stacelita. Estimate's dam is Ebaziya, a daughter of Darshaan. Ebaziya was trained by John Oxx and won three

Listed races Group races, also known as Pattern races, or Graded races in some jurisdictions, are the highest level of races in Thoroughbred horse racing. They include most of the world's iconic races, such as, in Europe, the Derby, Irish Derby and Prix de l' ...

in Ireland, including the

Ballysax Stakes The Ballysax Stakes is a Group 3 flat horse race in Ireland open to three-year-old thoroughbreds. It is run over a distance of 1 mile and 2 furlongs (2,012 metres) at Leopardstow ...

. The 2009 produce of Ebaziya was made available to Queen Elizabeth II as part of an 80th birthday present from the Aga Khan. She was sent to German sire Monsun, resulting Estimate. She is the 14th and last foal of Ebaziya and one of her eight winning offspring. Estimate's half-brother,

Enzeli Bandar-e Anzali ( fa, بندرانزلی, also Romanized as Bandar-e Anzalī; renamed as Bandar-e Pahlavi during the Pahlavi dynasty) is a city of Gilan Province, Iran. At the 2011 census, its population was 144,664. Anzali is one of the mo ...

, also won the Gold Cup in 1999. Estimate is trained by

Racing career

2011: two-year-old season

Estimate's only race as a two-year-old was a maiden over eight and a half furlongs at

Leicester Leicester ( ) is a city status in the United Kingdom, city, Unitary authorities of England, unitary authority and the county town of Leicestershire in the East Midlands of England. It is the largest settlement in the East Midlands. The city l ...

. She was slowly away at the start and raced in the rear for most of the race. She made a few places up near the end of the race and finished in seventh, about eight lengths behind winner Esentepe. Esentepe went on to win the Nell Gwyn Stakes the following season.

2012: three-year-old season

Estimate started her three-year-old career in a twelve furlong maiden at

Salisbury Salisbury ( ) is a cathedral city in Wiltshire, England with a population of 41,820, at the confluence of the rivers Avon, Nadder and Bourne. The city is approximately from Southampton and from Bath. Salisbury is in the southeast of Wil ...

. She started the race at the price of 12/1 and was positioned in the middle of the pack by jockey Pat Dobbs. She took the lead with over one furlong left to run and stayed on to win by two and three-quarters of a length from Mysterious Man. Despite only winning a maiden she started as the 3/1 favourite for the Queen's Vase at

. Estimate was ridden by Ryan Moore for the first time, who placed her in the middle of the field. She began to move through the field three furlongs out and took the lead two out. At the end of the race she pulled clear to win by five lengths from Athens. Ed De Gas was a further length and a half behind in third place, with Macbeth in fourth. At

Glorious Goodwood Goodwood Racecourse is a horse-racing track five miles north of Chichester, West Sussex, in England controlled by the family of the Duke of Richmond, whose seat is nearby Goodwood House. It hosts the annual Glorious Goodwood meeting in late ...

she contested the

Lillie Langtry Stakes The Lillie Langtry Stakes is a Group 2 flat horse race in Great Britain open to fillies and mares aged three years or older. It is run at Goodwood over a distance of 1 mile and 6 furlongs (2,816 metres), and it is sc ...

. In the closing stages she was unable to catch leader Wild Coco and was just overtaken by Jehannedarc in the final few yards, finishing third, about three lengths behind winner Wild Coco. Estimate faced Wild Coco again in the Park Hill Stakes in September. She pulled three lengths clear with one furlong left to run, but was overhauled by Wild Coco and Hazel Lavery, eventually finishing third, one and three quarter lengths behind winner Wild Coco.

2013: four-year-old season

In the

, Estimate followed the leaders until making her challenge in the closing stages of the race. She took the lead one furlong out and won by one and three-quarters of a length from Caucus, with Sir Graham Wade a further half length back in third place. In June she returned to Ascot for the Royal meeting and contested the

Ascot Gold Cup The Gold Cup is a Group 1 flat horse race in Great Britain open to horses aged four years or older. It is run at Ascot over a distance of 2 miles 3 furlongs and 210 yards (4,014 ...

, her first attempt at Group 1 level. Saddler's Rock led the race for the first few furlongs, with Estimate, ridden by regular jockey Ryan Moore, near also near the front. Moore asked for an effort as they turned into the finishing straight and took the lead from

Colour Vision Color vision, a feature of visual perception, is an ability to perceive differences between light composed of different wavelengths (i.e., different spectral power distributions) independently of light intensity. Color perception is a part of t ...

with one furlong still to run. Estimate was challenged by Simenon and Top Trip, but held on to win by a neck from Simenon. Top Trip was a further length behind in third, with Colour Vision finishing fourth. The Queen was due to present the trophy to the winner, but it was instead presented by her son Prince Andrew. Estimate's victory was the first time the Gold Cup had been won by the reigning

monarch A monarch is a head of stateWebster's II New College DictionarMonarch Houghton Mifflin. Boston. 2001. p. 707. Life tenure, for life or until abdication, and therefore the head of state of a monarchy. A monarch may exercise the highest authority ...

. On her only subsequent appearance in 2013, Estimate started 2/1 favourite for the

British Champions Long Distance Cup The British Champions Long Distance Cup is a Group 2 flat horse race in Great Britain open to thoroughbreds aged three years or older. It is run at Ascot over a distance of 1 mile 7 furlongs and 20 ...

at Ascot on 19 October, but made no impact, finishing seventh of the twelve runners behind Royal Diamond.

2014: five-year-old season

Estimate remained in training as a five-year-old, with the Gold Cup as her objective. She suffered from muscular problems in her right hind leg and Stoute was unable to give her a trial race before she ran in the Gold Cup on 19 June. Starting at odds of 8/1 she raced in mid-division before moving up to challenge the leaders in the straight. In a closely contested finish she was beaten into second place, a neck behind the 2013 St Leger winner

Leading Light Leading lights (also known as range lights in the United States) are a pair of light beacons used in navigation to indicate a safe passage for vessels entering a shallow or dangerous channel; they may also be used for position fixing. At night ...

. Ryan Moore reportedly described the mare's performance as a "career best". In a post race drugs test, Estimate tested positive to

, a drug banned on race days, and was disqualified from second place in the Gold Cup. The drug is believed to have been in contaminated food. Four other horses also tested positive to the drug. The filly finished last of the eight runners when starting 2/1 favourite for the

Goodwood Cup The Goodwood Cup is a Group 1 flat horse race in Great Britain open to horses aged three years or older. It is run at Goodwood over a distance of 2 miles (3,219 ...

on 31 July, but returned to form at York in August when she finished second to the Irish mare Pale Mimosa in the

Lonsdale Cup The Lonsdale Cup is a Group 2 flat horse race in Great Britain open to horses aged three years or older. It is run at York over a distance of 2 miles and 56 yards (3,270 metres), and it is scheduled ...

. On 12 September Estimate started the 11/8 favourite for the Doncaster Cup against eleven opponents headed by Time's Up, who had won the last two runnings of the race. Moore positioned the mare just behind the leaders before moving forward in the straight. She took the lead from Brass Ring approaching the final furlong and held on in the closing stages to win by one and a quarter lengths from the six-year-old gelding Whiplash Willie with the 80/1 outsider Kalann in third. After the race Moore said "She was never going to get beat today. She travelled sweetly and she battles away. I never really asked for a serious question and there was plenty left in the tank".Estimate digs deep to repel Cup rivals
''Racing Post''. 12 September 2014. Retrieved 11 July 2015. On her final racecourse appearance the mare ran for the second time in the British Long Distance Cup and started at odds of 8/1. Racing on heavy ground she tired badly in the last half-mile and finished last of the nine runners behind Forgotten Rules. Estimate was retired to the Royal Stud at the end of that season and the following Spring covered by

Dubawi Dubawi (foaled 7 February 2002) is a retired Thoroughbred racehorse and active sire. Background Dubawi is a bay horse with no white markings bred in Ireland by Sheikh Mohammed's Darley Stud. He was one of the only crop of foals sired by Dubai ...

by whom she had a colt foal in early 2016. She returned to be covered by Dubawi in 2016.

Pedigree

References

{{Elizabeth II 2009 racehorse births Racehorses bred in Ireland Racehorses trained in the United Kingdom Thoroughbred family 13-c Cartier Award winners