HOME

TheInfoList



OR:

the global
COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identif ...
is still ongoing, but the disease may shift from a
pandemic A pandemic () is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. A widespread endemic (epidemiology), endemic disease wi ...
stage to an
endemic Endemism is the state of a species being found in a single defined geographic location, such as an island, state, nation, country or other defined zone; organisms that are indigenous to a place are not endemic to it if they are also found elsew ...
stage in the future. Endemicity is characterized by people continuing to be infected and becoming ill, but in relatively stable numbers compared to the preceding pandemic. The observed behavior of the
SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) is a strain of coronavirus that causes COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019), the respiratory illness responsible for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The virus previously had a ...
virus suggests it is unlikely it will die out, and the lack of a
COVID-19 vaccine A COVID19 vaccine is a vaccine intended to provide acquired immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID19). Prior to the COVID19 pandemic, an e ...
that provides long-lasting immunity against infection means it cannot be eradicated. From 2021 onwards, politicians and health officials in some countries have said that COVID-19 is endemic or that the country was beginning to transition to an endemic phase. These include Cambodia, Finland, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, Singapore, Spain and Vietnam.


Background

There is no single agreed definition of what it means precisely for COVID-19 to become endemic. During the course of the
COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identif ...
, it became apparent that the
SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) is a strain of coronavirus that causes COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019), the respiratory illness responsible for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The virus previously had a ...
virus was unlikely to die out, but was more likely to become
endemic Endemism is the state of a species being found in a single defined geographic location, such as an island, state, nation, country or other defined zone; organisms that are indigenous to a place are not endemic to it if they are also found elsew ...
. Endemicity is characterized by the continued existence of the virus, but with lower levels of infection that in the preceding
epidemic An epidemic (from Ancient Greek, Greek ἐπί ''epi'' "upon or above" and δῆμος ''demos'' "people") is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of patients among a given population within an area in a short period of time. Epidemics ...
. People continue to become infected because of changes and movement within populations, and endemic disease may have seasonal infection patterns, but the largest determinant of how endemicity manifests itself is the levels of
immunity Immunity may refer to: Medicine * Immunity (medical), resistance of an organism to infection or disease * ''Immunity'' (journal), a scientific journal published by Cell Press Biology * Immune system Engineering * Radiofrequence immunity desc ...
people have, both as a result of vaccination and infection. In the absence of a vaccine that provides long-lasting immunity against infection from COVID-19, it will be impossible to
eradicate The word "Eradication" is derived from Latin word "radix" which means "root". It may refer to: *Eradication of infectious diseases (human), the reduction of the global incidence of an infectious disease in humans to zero *Eradication of infectiou ...
the disease. The severity of a disease in an endemic phase is dependent on how long-lasting immunity against severe outcomes is. If such immunity is lifelong, or lasts longer than immunity against infection, then reinfections will be mild, resulting in a mild endemic phase. In existing human coronaviruses, protection against infection is transient, but observed reinfections are mild.


Global view

On 14 April 2022, the
World Health Organization The World Health Organization (WHO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for international public health. The WHO Constitution states its main objective as "the attainment by all peoples of the highest possible level of h ...
(WHO) said that COVID-19 is far from becoming an endemic disease and could still trigger large outbreaks around the globe. In December 2022, WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus said that the death toll was still too high, but that "we have come a long way. We are hopeful that at some point next year, we will be able to say that Covid-19 is no longer a global health emergency." He added, "It's here to stay and all countries will need to learn to manage it alongside other respiratory illnesses." In June 2022, an article in '' Human Genomics'' said that the pandemic was "still raging" but "now is the time to explore the transition from the pandemic to the endemic phase. The latter will require worldwide vigilance and cooperation, especially in emerging countries", and suggested that developed countries should assist in boosting
COVID-19 vaccination A COVID19 vaccine is a vaccine intended to provide acquired immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19). Prior to the COVID19 pandemic, an est ...
rates worldwide.


Brazil

In early March 2022, then Brazilian President
Jair Bolsonaro Jair Messias Bolsonaro (; born 21 March 1955) is a Brazilian politician and retired military officer who has been the 38th president of Brazil since 1 January 2019. He was elected in 2018 as a member of the Social Liberal Party, which he turn ...
said that the country was looking to downgrade COVID-19 to the status of an endemic.


Cambodia

On 24 January 2022, Hok Kim Cheng, a spokesman for the Cambodian Health Ministry said that Cambodia was entering the endemic stage of the coronavirus. He cited milder outcomes for Omicron variant infections, and high vaccination rates. The World Health Organization representative in Cambodia, Dr Li Ailan, disagreed, responding: "We are still at the pandemic phase globally including Cambodia".


Finland

In June 2022, all restrictions had been lifted in the country. In July 2022, the
Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare The Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL, fi, Terveyden ja hyvinvoinnin laitos, sv, Institutet för hälsa och välfärd; until 2019, National Institute for Health and Welfare) is a Finnish research and development institute operating ...
issued a statement arguing that Finland was transitioning into the endemic phase of COVID-19. It was covered widely in Finnish media.


India

On 31 March 2022, following a communique from the
Union Home Ministry The Ministry of Home Affairs (IAST: ''Gṛha Maṃtrālaya''), or simply the Home Ministry, is a ministry of the Government of India. As an interior ministry of India, it is mainly responsible for the maintenance of internal security and dome ...
stating to end all COVID-19 restrictions; several Indian states began lifting curbs. By September 2022, experts believed the virus had become endemic in the country.


Indonesia

On 18 May 2022, the Governor of
Bali Bali () is a province of Indonesia and the westernmost of the Lesser Sunda Islands. East of Java and west of Lombok, the province includes the island of Bali and a few smaller neighbouring islands, notably Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan, and Nu ...
,
I Wayan Koster I Wayan Koster (born 20 October 1962) is an Indonesian politician who is the 10th governor of Bali. Before becoming governor, he was a member of the People's Representative Council representing the province. A three-term parliamentarian represent ...
, requested that Bali receive an endemic status to COVID-19 in order to "accelerate the recovery of Bali's tourism and economy". On 20 September 2022, the Executive Board of the Indonesian Medical Association's (IDI's) COVID-19 task force head Erlina Burhan stated that Indonesia is on the right track in its endeavors to enter the COVID-19 endemic stage.


Italy

On 15 November 2022, the
Italian Minister of Health The Minister of Health (Italian: ''Ministro della Salute'') in Italy is one of the positions in the Italian government. The ministry was officially established in 1958, with Vincenzo Monaldi, of the Christian Democracy, serving as the first min ...
Orazio Schillaci Orazio Schillaci (born 27 April 1966) is an Italian politician who has been Minister of Health in the Meloni government since October 2022. In 1990 he graduated in medicine and surgery at Sapienza University, where he then obtained in 1994 the ...
appeared on a broadcast of ''
Porta a Porta ''Porta a Porta'' (literally ''Door-to-door'') is an Italian late night television talk show hosted by the Italian journalist Bruno Vespa Bruno Paolo Vespa (born 27 May 1944) is an Italian television and newspaper journalist. A former directo ...
'' where he discussed the reduction of quarantine guidelines and said Italy is in an "endemic phase of COVID, we must take the same precautions we had before for the flu".


Malaysia

In September 2021, Malaysian
Minister of Health A health minister is the member of a country's government typically responsible for protecting and promoting public health and providing welfare and other social security services. Some governments have separate ministers for mental health. Coun ...
Khairy Jamaluddin Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar ( Jawi: ; born 10 January 1976) is a Malaysian politician. He most recently served as Minister of Health in the Barisan Nasional (BN) administration under former Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob from August 2021 t ...
announced that the government would transition to treating COVID-19 as if it was in an "endemic phase" by the end of October 2021, after vaccinating 80% of the population. Movement controls in the country were lifted in October 2021. In March 2022, Khairy said that Malaysians could start "to live with COVID-19" while maintaining some public health measures.


Mexico

On 26 April 2022, President
Andrés Manuel López Obrador Andrés Manuel López Obrador (; born 13 November 1953), also known by his initials AMLO, is a Mexican politician who has been serving as the 65th president of Mexico since 1 December 2018. He previously served as Head of Government of Mexico ...
said that COVID-19 was "retreating almost completely" and had moved on to an endemic stage. Hugo Lopez Gatell, Mexico's deputy health secretary and coronavirus czar, later clarified, "The endemic stage is not the end of the epidemic. There's been a lot of confusion. Some articles and commentators have said we'd declared the epidemic was over. We never said the epidemic had ended."


Philippines

In February 2022, the Philippines Department of Health began shifting toward the endemic phase of COVID-19, despite caution from the WHO that it may be too early to declare. During a media briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that the "transition to an endemic state for COVID-19 does not mean that the government would stop its interventions or even remove minimum health protocols such as masking, physical distancing, and hand sanitation." WHO Acting Philippine Representative Rajendra Yadav said that while the continued drop in the number of new cases is "encouraging," the country should be careful in moving from the "acute phase" of the pandemic.


Singapore

In June 2021,
Gan Kim Yong Gan Kim Yong ( zh, s=颜金勇, p=Yán Jīnyǒng; born 9 February 1959) is a Singaporean politician who has been serving as Minister for Trade and Industry since 2021. A member of the governing People's Action Party, he has been the Member of P ...
,
Ong Ye Kung Ong Ye Kung ( zh, s=王乙康, p=Wáng Yǐkāng; born 1969) is a Singaporean politician and former civil servant who has been serving as Minister for Health since 2021. A member of the governing People's Action Party (PAP), he has been the Mem ...
and
Lawrence Wong Lawrence Wong Shyun Tsai ( zh, c=黄循财, p=Huáng Xúncái; born 18 December 1972) is a Singaporean politician, economist and former civil servant who has been serving as Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore since 2022 alongside Heng Swee Keat ...
—chairs of Singapore's COVID-19 task force—stated that "COVID-19 may never go away", but that due to high vaccination rates, a roadmap was being developed for how the
city state A city-state is an independent sovereign city which serves as the center of political, economic, and cultural life over its contiguous territory. They have existed in many parts of the world since the dawn of history, including cities such as ...
could eventually live "normally with OVID-19in our midst", and manage it as an endemic disease, which would include: * Using rapid COVID-19 tests for screening, as opposed to slower PCR tests, contact tracing, and quarantine. * Deemphasis on COVID-19 case numbers in favour of "outcomes" * Emphasis on COVID-19 patients being able to recover at home * Easing restrictions on gatherings and avoiding lockdowns * Easing travel restrictions for those who are fully-vaccinated They stated that "Science and human ingenuity will eventually prevail over COVID-19. Cohesion and social consciousness will get us there faster. We must all do our part." Shortly after the plans were revealed, however, outbreaks tied to the Delta variant began to emerge, leading the Singapore government to reintroduce restrictions on gatherings. In October 2021, Prime Minister
Lee Hsien Loong Lee Hsien Loong (; born 10 February 1952) is a Singaporean politician and former brigadier-general who has been serving as Prime Minister of Singapore and Secretary-General of the People's Action Party since 2004. He has been the Member of Par ...
admitted that it would take at least six months to reach a "new normal", but that Singapore's high vaccination rates and low mortality meant that COVID-19 "has become a treatable, mild disease for most of us", the impact of COVID-19 variants had made a COVID-Zero strategy less feasible, and that maintaining restrictions would impact the economy and mental health of the country.


Spain

On 17 January 2022, Prime Minister
Pedro Sánchez Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón (; born 29 February 1972) is a Spanish politician who has been Prime Minister of Spain since June 2018. He has also been Secretary-General of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) since June 2017, having pr ...
said the Spanish government was exploring how and when the management of the COVID-19 pandemic would shift to the management of the coronavirus as an endemic illness, saying that "the virus is no longer so deadly". The following day, Ghebreyesus of the WHO stated that the pandemic was "nowhere near over", warning that new variants were still "likely to emerge".


United Kingdom

On 4 March 2022, the
Welsh Welsh may refer to: Related to Wales * Welsh, referring or related to Wales * Welsh language, a Brittonic Celtic language spoken in Wales * Welsh people People * Welsh (surname) * Sometimes used as a synonym for the ancient Britons (Celtic peop ...
government announced the forthcoming removal of all remaining COVID-19 restrictions on 28 March. The decision was made as part of a long-term plan to transition from pandemic to endemic.


United States

On April 26, 2022,
Chief Medical Advisor to the President The chief medical advisor to the president is a position within the White House Office, which is part of the Executive Office of the President of the United States. Established in 2019, the position has been vacant since Dec. 31, 2022, when Ant ...
and director of the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID, ) is one of the 27 institutes and centers that make up the National Institutes of Health (NIH), an agency of the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). NIAID's ...
(NIAD) Anthony Fauci argued that the United States was "out of the pandemic phase". The following day, Fauci stated that the country was in a "transitional phase" into "hopefully a more controlled phase and endemicity", but that "the world is still in a pandemic", and the United States could still see new waves of infection. Fauci's comments followed a report from the CDC indicating that the United States had a much higher level of collective immunity due to the Omicron variant. During a ''
60 Minutes ''60 Minutes'' is an American television news magazine broadcast on the CBS television network. Debuting in 1968, the program was created by Don Hewitt and Bill Leonard, who chose to set it apart from other news programs by using a unique styl ...
'' interview aired September 18, 2022, President Joe Biden stated that the pandemic was "over", but that "we are still doing a lot of work on it". This declaration was met with some debate in the medical community as the United States still has roughly 400 deaths from the disease per day, and when extrapolated to 150,000 per year it is three times the fatality rate of a bad
flu season Flu season is an annually recurring time period characterized by the prevalence of an outbreak of influenza (flu). The season occurs during the cold half of the year in each hemisphere. It takes approximately two days to show symptoms. Influen ...
. Epidemiologist Jennifer Nuzzo of
Brown University Brown University is a private research university in Providence, Rhode Island. Brown is the seventh-oldest institution of higher education in the United States, founded in 1764 as the College in the English Colony of Rhode Island and Providenc ...
's Center for Pandemic Preparedness and Response called Biden's remark "an unfortunate sound bite".


Vietnam

In March 2022, Prime Minister
Phạm Minh Chính Phạm Minh Chính (born 10 December 1958) is a Vietnamese politician, the current Prime Minister of Vietnam, one of the highest-ranked officials in Vietnam along with Nguyễn Phú Trọng, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam ...
said COVID-19 was "endemic" and considered ending daily reporting of new cases.


Analysis

A 2021 article in ''
The Lancet ''The Lancet'' is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal and one of the oldest of its kind. It is also the world's highest-impact academic journal. It was founded in England in 1823. The journal publishes original research articles, ...
'' called restrictions being lifted in the
United Kingdom The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and North ...
"dangerous and immature" and expressed concern that mass infection could lead to
vaccine resistance Vaccine resistance is the evolutionary adaptation of pathogens to infect and spread through vaccinated individuals, analogous to antimicrobial resistance. It concerns both human and animal vaccines. Although the emergence of a number of vaccine ...
and would impact young people, children and health services. In ''
The BMJ ''The BMJ'' is a weekly peer-reviewed medical trade journal, published by the trade union the British Medical Association (BMA). ''The BMJ'' has editorial freedom from the BMA. It is one of the world's oldest general medical journals. Origi ...
'' in February 2022, several health policy and public health experts criticised the British government's "living with COVID" plan, suggesting the end of free COVID-19 testing could exacerbate
health inequality Health equity arises from access to the social determinants of health, specifically from wealth, power and prestige. Individuals who have consistently been deprived of these three determinants are significantly disadvantaged from health inequiti ...
, and suggesting the plan did not account for required resources for localised contact tracing and hospital capacity. Elizabeth Stokoe and colleagues wrote in March 2022 that the phrase "living with COVID-19" is a
cliché A cliché ( or ) is an element of an artistic work, saying, or idea that has become overused to the point of losing its original meaning or effect, even to the point of being weird or irritating, especially when at some earlier time it was consi ...
that has two opposed, disputed meanings. On the one hand it can mean simply returning to pre-pandemic living; on the other it can mean that life now must incorporate public health mitigation measures to reduce the impact of the disease as it circulates at high rates. In the United Kingdom, the phrase had enjoyed wide currency among politicians and the
popular media Mass media refers to a diverse array of media technologies that reach a large audience via mass communication. The technologies through which this communication takes place include a variety of outlets. Broadcast media transmit information ...
, particular in the later, post-2021, phases of the pandemic.


See also

*
Public health mitigation of COVID-19 Speed and scale are key to mitigation of COVID-19, due to the fat-tailed nature of pandemic risk and the exponential growth of COVID-19 infections. For mitigation to be effective, (a) chains of transmission must be broken as quickly as possible t ...
*
COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory This is a general overview and status of places affected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. The first human ...
*
Treatment and management of COVID-19 Although several medications have been approved in different countries as of April 2022, not all countries have these medications. Patients with mild to moderate symptoms who are in the risk groups can take nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (marketed as Pax ...


References

{{COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 National responses to the COVID-19 pandemic Medical responses to the COVID-19 pandemic Political responses to the COVID-19 pandemic