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Scoring Rule
In decision theory, a scoring rule provides a summary measure for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasting, probabilistic predictions or forecasts. It is applicable to tasks in which predictions assign probabilities to events, i.e. one issues a probability distribution F as prediction. This includes probabilistic classification of a set of mutually exclusive outcomes or probabilistic classification, classes. On the other side, a scoring function provides a summary measure for the evaluation of point predictions, i.e. one predicts a property or functional T(F), like the Expected value, expectation or the median. Scoring rules and scoring functions can be thought of as "cost function" or "loss function". They are evaluated as empirical mean of a given sample, simply called score. Scores of different predictions or models can then be compared to conclude which model is best. If a cost is levied in proportion to a proper scoring rule, the minimal expected cost corresponds to repo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Scoring Functions
Score or scorer may refer to: *Test score, the result of an exam or test Business * Score Digital, now part of Bauer Radio * Score Entertainment, a former American trading card design and manufacturing company * Score Media, a former Canadian media company Mathematics *Score (statistics), a quantity in statistics *Score, a quantity of twenty ( 20) units *Raw score, an original datum that has not been transformed * Score test, a statistical test * Scorer's function, solutions to differential equations *Scoring rule, measuring the accuracy of probabilistic predictions *Standard score, a quantity derived from the raw score * Score, a period of 20 years Science and technology *Single colour reflectometry (SCORE), an optical technique for monitoring biomolecular interactions Arts, entertainment, and media * Event score, written or printed instructions for a visual art performance Films * ''Score'' (1974 film), an American adult film * ''Score'' (2016 film), a documentary * '' S ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Rule
In decision theory, a decision rule is a function which maps an observation to an appropriate action. Decision rules play an important role in the theory of statistics and economics, and are closely related to the concept of a strategy in game theory. In order to evaluate the usefulness of a decision rule, it is necessary to have a loss function detailing the outcome of each action under different states. Formal definition Given an observable random variable ''X'' over the probability space \scriptstyle (\mathcal,\Sigma, P_\theta), determined by a parameter ''θ'' ∈ ''Θ'', and a set ''A'' of possible actions, a (deterministic) decision rule is a function ''δ'' : \scriptstyle\mathcal→ ''A''. Examples of decision rules * An estimator is a decision rule used for estimating a parameter. In this case the set of actions is the parameter space, and a loss function details the cost of the discrepancy between the true value of the parameter and the e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Affine Transformation
In Euclidean geometry, an affine transformation or affinity (from the Latin, ''affinis'', "connected with") is a geometric transformation that preserves lines and parallelism, but not necessarily Euclidean distances and angles. More generally, an affine transformation is an automorphism of an affine space (Euclidean spaces are specific affine spaces), that is, a function which maps an affine space onto itself while preserving both the dimension of any affine subspaces (meaning that it sends points to points, lines to lines, planes to planes, and so on) and the ratios of the lengths of parallel line segments. Consequently, sets of parallel affine subspaces remain parallel after an affine transformation. An affine transformation does not necessarily preserve angles between lines or distances between points, though it does preserve ratios of distances between points lying on a straight line. If is the point set of an affine space, then every affine transformation on can b ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Accuracy And Precision
Accuracy and precision are two measures of ''observational error''. ''Accuracy'' is how close a given set of measurements ( observations or readings) are to their '' true value'', while ''precision'' is how close the measurements are to each other. In other words, ''precision'' is a description of '' random errors'', a measure of statistical variability. ''Accuracy'' has two definitions: # More commonly, it is a description of only ''systematic errors'', a measure of statistical bias of a given measure of central tendency; low accuracy causes a difference between a result and a true value; ISO calls this ''trueness''. # Alternatively, ISO defines accuracy as describing a combination of both types of observational error (random and systematic), so high accuracy requires both high precision and high trueness. In the first, more common definition of "accuracy" above, the concept is independent of "precision", so a particular set of data can be said to be accurate, precise, both, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
False Positives And False Negatives
A false positive is an error in binary classification in which a test result incorrectly indicates the presence of a condition (such as a disease when the disease is not present), while a false negative is the opposite error, where the test result incorrectly indicates the absence of a condition when it is actually present. These are the two kinds of errors in a binary test, in contrast to the two kinds of correct result (a and a ). They are also known in medicine as a false positive (or false negative) diagnosis, and in statistical classification as a false positive (or false negative) error. In statistical hypothesis testing the analogous concepts are known as type I and type II errors, where a positive result corresponds to rejecting the null hypothesis, and a negative result corresponds to not rejecting the null hypothesis. The terms are often used interchangeably, but there are differences in detail and interpretation due to the differences between medical testing and stat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Affine Transformation
In Euclidean geometry, an affine transformation or affinity (from the Latin, ''affinis'', "connected with") is a geometric transformation that preserves lines and parallelism, but not necessarily Euclidean distances and angles. More generally, an affine transformation is an automorphism of an affine space (Euclidean spaces are specific affine spaces), that is, a function which maps an affine space onto itself while preserving both the dimension of any affine subspaces (meaning that it sends points to points, lines to lines, planes to planes, and so on) and the ratios of the lengths of parallel line segments. Consequently, sets of parallel affine subspaces remain parallel after an affine transformation. An affine transformation does not necessarily preserve angles between lines or distances between points, though it does preserve ratios of distances between points lying on a straight line. If is the point set of an affine space, then every affine transformation on can b ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Brier Score
The Brier Score is a ''strictly proper score function'' or ''strictly proper scoring rule'' that measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. For unidimensional predictions, it is strictly equivalent to the mean squared error as applied to predicted probabilities. The Brier score is applicable to tasks in which predictions must assign probabilities to a set of mutually exclusive discrete outcomes or classes. The set of possible outcomes can be either binary or categorical in nature, and the probabilities assigned to this set of outcomes must sum to one (where each individual probability is in the range of 0 to 1). It was proposed by Glenn W. Brier in 1950. The Brier score can be thought of as a cost function. More precisely, across all items i\in in a set of ''N'' predictions, the Brier score measures the mean squared difference between: * The predicted probability assigned to the possible outcomes for item ''i'' * The actual outcome o_i Therefore, the ''lower'' the Bri ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Information Theory
Information theory is the scientific study of the quantification, storage, and communication of information. The field was originally established by the works of Harry Nyquist and Ralph Hartley, in the 1920s, and Claude Shannon in the 1940s. The field is at the intersection of probability theory, statistics, computer science, statistical mechanics, information engineering, and electrical engineering. A key measure in information theory is entropy. Entropy quantifies the amount of uncertainty involved in the value of a random variable or the outcome of a random process. For example, identifying the outcome of a fair coin flip (with two equally likely outcomes) provides less information (lower entropy) than specifying the outcome from a roll of a die (with six equally likely outcomes). Some other important measures in information theory are mutual information, channel capacity, error exponents, and relative entropy. Important sub-fields of information theory include sourc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayesian Inference
Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Bayesian inference is an important technique in statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. Bayesian updating is particularly important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a wide range of activities, including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, sport, and law. In the philosophy of decision theory, Bayesian inference is closely related to subjective probability, often called "Bayesian probability". Introduction to Bayes' rule Formal explanation Bayesian inference derives the posterior probability as a consequence of two antecedents: a prior probability and a "likelihood function" derived from a statistical model for the observed data. Bayesian inference computes the posterior probability according to Bayes' theorem ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
