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Stochastic Drift
In probability theory, stochastic drift is the change of the average value of a stochastic (random) process. A related concept is the drift rate, which is the rate at which the average changes. For example, a process that counts the number of heads in a series of n fair coin tosses has a drift rate of 1/2 per toss. This is in contrast to the random fluctuations about this average value. The stochastic mean of that coin-toss process is 1/2 and the drift rate of the stochastic mean is 0, assuming 1 = heads and 0 = tails. Stochastic drifts in population studies Longitudinal studies of secular events are frequently conceptualized as consisting of a trend component fitted by a polynomial, a cyclical component often fitted by an analysis based on autocorrelations or on a Fourier series, and a random component (stochastic drift) to be removed. In the course of the time series analysis, identification of cyclical and stochastic drift components is often attempted by a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space. Any specified subset of the sample space is called an event. Central subjects in probability theory include discrete and continuous random variables, probability distributions, and stochastic processes (which provide mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic or uncertain processes or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in a random fashion). Although it is not possible to perfectly predict random events, much can be said about their behavior. Two major results in probability ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Stock Price
A share price is the price of a single share of a number of saleable equity shares of a company. In layman's terms, the stock price is the highest amount someone is willing to pay for the stock, or the lowest amount that it can be bought for. Behaviour of share prices In economics and financial theory, analysts use random walk techniques to model behavior of asset prices, in particular share prices on stock markets. This practice has its basis in the presumption that investors act rationally and without biases, and that at any moment they estimate the value of an asset based on future expectations. Under these conditions, all existing information affects the price, which changes only when new information comes out. By definition, new information appears randomly and influences the asset price randomly. Empirical studies have demonstrated that prices do not completely follow random walks. Low serial correlations (around 0.05) exist in the short term, and slightly stronger correl ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decomposition Of Time Series
The decomposition of time series is a statistical task that deconstructs a time series into several components, each representing one of the underlying categories of patterns. There are two principal types of decomposition, which are outlined below. Decomposition based on rates of change This is an important technique for all types of time series analysis, especially for seasonal adjustment. It seeks to construct, from an observed time series, a number of component series (that could be used to reconstruct the original by additions or multiplications) where each of these has a certain characteristic or type of behavior. For example, time series are usually decomposed into: *T_t, the trend component at time ''t'', which reflects the long-term progression of the series (secular variation). A trend exists when there is a persistent increasing or decreasing direction in the data. The trend component does not have to be linear. *C_t, the cyclical component at time ''t'', which refle ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Secular Variation
The secular variation of a time series is its long-term, non-periodic variation (see decomposition of time series). Whether a variation is perceived as secular or not depends on the available timescale: a variation that is secular over a timescale of centuries may be a segment of what is, over a timescale of millions of years, a periodic variation. Natural quantities often have both periodic and secular variations. Secular variation is sometimes called secular trend or secular drift when the emphasis is on a linear long-term trend. The term is used wherever time series are applicable in history, economics, operations research, biological anthropology, and astronomy (particularly celestial mechanics) such as VSOP (planets). Etymology The word ''secular'', from the Latin root ''saecularis'' ("of an age, occurring once in an age"), has two basic meanings: I. Of or pertaining to the world (from which secularity is derived), and II. Of or belonging to an age or long period. The latte ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Price Level
The general price level is a hypothetical measure of overall prices for some set of goods and services (the consumer basket), in an economy or monetary union during a given interval (generally one day), normalized relative to some base set. Typically, the general price level is approximated with a daily price ''index'', normally the Daily CPI. The general price level can change more than once per day during hyperinflation. Theoretical foundation The classical dichotomy is the assumption that there is a relatively clean distinction between overall increases or decreases in prices and underlying, “nominal” economic variables. Thus, if prices ''overall'' increase or decrease, it is assumed that this change can be decomposed as follows: Given a set C of goods and services, the total value of transactions in C at time t is :\sum_ (p_\cdot q_)=\sum_ P_t\cdot p'_)\cdot q_P_t\cdot \sum_ (p'_\cdot q_) where :q_\, represents the quantity of c at time t :p_\, represents the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to control either the interest rate payable for very short-term borrowing (borrowing by banks from each other to meet their short-term needs) or the money supply, often as an attempt to reduce inflation or the interest rate, to ensure price stability and general trust of the value and stability of the nation's currency. Monetary policy is a modification of the supply of money, i.e. "printing" more money, or decreasing the money supply by changing interest rates or removing excess reserves. This is in contrast to fiscal policy, which relies on taxation, government spending, and government borrowing as methods for a government to manage business cycle phenomena such as recessions. Further purposes of a monetary policy are usually to contribute to the stability of gross domestic product, to achieve and maintain low unemployment, and to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies. Monetary ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
First Difference
In mathematics, a recurrence relation is an equation according to which the nth term of a sequence of numbers is equal to some combination of the previous terms. Often, only k previous terms of the sequence appear in the equation, for a parameter k that is independent of n; this number k is called the ''order'' of the relation. If the values of the first k numbers in the sequence have been given, the rest of the sequence can be calculated by repeatedly applying the equation. In ''linear recurrences'', the th term is equated to a linear function of the k previous terms. A famous example is the recurrence for the Fibonacci numbers, F_n=F_+F_ where the order k is two and the linear function merely adds the two previous terms. This example is a linear recurrence with constant coefficients, because the coefficients of the linear function (1 and 1) are constants that do not depend on n. For these recurrences, one can express the general term of the sequence as a closed-form expression ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Unit Root
In probability theory and statistics, a unit root is a feature of some stochastic processes (such as random walks) that can cause problems in statistical inference involving time series models. A linear stochastic process has a unit root if 1 is a root of the process's characteristic equation. Such a process is non-stationary but does not always have a trend. If the other roots of the characteristic equation lie inside the unit circle—that is, have a modulus (absolute value) less than one—then the first difference of the process will be stationary; otherwise, the process will need to be differenced multiple times to become stationary. If there are ''d'' unit roots, the process will have to be differenced ''d'' times in order to make it stationary. Due to this characteristic, unit root processes are also called difference stationary. Unit root processes may sometimes be confused with trend-stationary processes; while they share many properties, they are different in many asp ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Trend-stationary Process
In the statistical analysis of time series, a trend-stationary process is a stochastic process from which an underlying trend (function solely of time) can be removed, leaving a stationary process. The trend does not have to be linear. Conversely, if the process requires differencing to be made stationary, then it is called difference stationary and possesses one or more unit roots. Those two concepts may sometimes be confused, but while they share many properties, they are different in many aspects. It is possible for a time series to be non-stationary, yet have no unit root and be trend-stationary. In both unit root and trend-stationary processes, the mean can be growing or decreasing over time; however, in the presence of a shock, trend-stationary processes are mean-reverting (i.e. transitory, the time series will converge again towards the growing mean, which was not affected by the shock) while unit-root processes have a permanent impact on the mean (i.e. no convergence over t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Stationary Process
In mathematics and statistics, a stationary process (or a strict/strictly stationary process or strong/strongly stationary process) is a stochastic process whose unconditional joint probability distribution does not change when shifted in time. Consequently, parameters such as mean and variance also do not change over time. If you draw a line through the middle of a stationary process then it should be flat; it may have 'seasonal' cycles, but overall it does not trend up nor down. Since stationarity is an assumption underlying many statistical procedures used in time series analysis, non-stationary data are often transformed to become stationary. The most common cause of violation of stationarity is a trend in the mean, which can be due either to the presence of a unit root or of a deterministic trend. In the former case of a unit root, stochastic shocks have permanent effects, and the process is not mean-reverting. In the latter case of a deterministic trend, the process is called ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a money, monetary Measurement in economics, measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced and sold (not resold) in a specific time period by countries. Due to its complex and subjective nature this measure is often revised before being considered a reliable indicator. List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita, GDP (nominal) per capita does not, however, reflect differences in the cost of living and the inflation, inflation rates of the countries; therefore, using a basis of List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita, GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) may be more useful when comparing standard of living, living standards between nations, while nominal GDP is more useful comparing national economies on the international market. Total GDP can also be broken down into the contribution of each industry or sector of the economy. The ratio of GDP to the total population of the region is the GDP per capita, p ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Natural Selection
Natural selection is the differential survival and reproduction of individuals due to differences in phenotype. It is a key mechanism of evolution, the change in the heritable traits characteristic of a population over generations. Charles Darwin popularised the term "natural selection", contrasting it with selective breeding, artificial selection, which in his view is intentional, whereas natural selection is not. Genetic diversity, Variation exists within all populations of organisms. This occurs partly because random mutations arise in the genome of an individual organism, and their offspring can inherit such mutations. Throughout the lives of the individuals, their genomes interact with their environments to cause variations in traits. The environment of a genome includes the molecular biology in the Cell (biology), cell, other cells, other individuals, populations, species, as well as the abiotic environment. Because individuals with certain variants of the trait tend ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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