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Wald's Martingale
In probability theory, Wald's martingale is the name sometimes given to a Martingale_(probability_theory), martingale used to study sums of Independent and identically distributed random variables, i.i.d. random variables. It is named after the mathematician Abraham Wald, who used these ideas in a series of influential publications. Wald's martingale can be seen as discrete-time equivalent of the Doléans-Dade exponential. Formal statement Let (X_n)_ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables whose moment generating function M: \theta \mapsto \mathbb(e^) is finite for some \theta > 0, and let S_n = X_1 + \cdots + X_n, with S_0 = 0. Then, the process (W_n)_ defined by :W_n = \frac is a martingale known as ''Wald's martingale''. In particular, \mathbb(W_n) = 1 for all n \geq 0. See also *Martingale_(probability_theory), Martingale *geometric Brownian motion *Doléans-Dade exponential *Wald's equation Notes Martingale theory {{probability-stub ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Theory
Probability theory or probability calculus is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms of probability, axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure (mathematics), measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space. Any specified subset of the sample space is called an event (probability theory), event. Central subjects in probability theory include discrete and continuous random variables, probability distributions, and stochastic processes (which provide mathematical abstractions of determinism, non-deterministic or uncertain processes or measured Quantity, quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in a random fashion). Although it is no ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Martingale (probability Theory)
In probability theory, a martingale is a stochastic process in which the expected value of the next observation, given all prior observations, is equal to the most recent value. In other words, the conditional expectation of the next value, given the past, is equal to the present value. Martingales are used to model fair games, where future expected winnings are equal to the current amount regardless of past outcomes. History Originally, ''martingale (betting system), martingale'' referred to a class of betting strategy, betting strategies that was popular in 18th-century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins their stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double their bet after every loss so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. As the gambler's wealth and available time jointly approach infinity, their pr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Independent And Identically Distributed Random Variables
Independent or Independents may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Artist groups * Independents (artist group), a group of modernist painters based in Pennsylvania, United States * Independentes (English: Independents), a Portuguese artist group Music Groups, labels, and genres * Independent music, a number of genres associated with independent labels * Independent record label, a record label not associated with a major label * Independent Albums, American albums chart Albums * ''Independent'' (Ai album), 2012 * ''Independent'' (Faze album), 2006 * ''Independent'' (Sacred Reich album), 1993 Songs * "Independent" (song), a 2007 song by Webbie * "Independent", a 2002 song by Ayumi Hamasaki from '' H'' News media organizations * Independent Media Center (also known as Indymedia or IMC), an open publishing network of journalist collectives that report on political and social issues, e.g., in ''The Indypendent'' newspaper of NYC * ITV (TV network) (Independent Televi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Abraham Wald
Abraham Wald (; ; , ; – ) was a Hungarian and American mathematician and statistician who contributed to decision theory, geometry and econometrics, and founded the field of sequential analysis. One of his well-known statistical works was written during World War II on how to minimize the damage to bomber aircraft and took into account the survivorship bias in his calculations. He spent his research career at Columbia University. He was the grandson of Rabbi Moshe Shmuel Glasner. Life and career Wald was born on 31 October 1902 in Cluj-Napoca, Kolozsvár, Transylvania, in the Kingdom of Hungary. A religious Jew, he did not attend school on Saturdays, as was then required by the Hungarian school system, and so he was homeschooled by his parents until college. His parents were quite knowledgeable and competent as teachers. In 1928, he graduated in mathematics from the Babeș-Bolyai University, King Ferdinand I University. In 1927, he had entered Postgraduate education, g ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Doléans-Dade Exponential
In stochastic calculus, the Doléans-Dade exponential or stochastic exponential of a semimartingale ''X'' is the unique strong solution of the stochastic differential equation dY_t = Y_\,dX_t,\quad\quad Y_0=1,where Y_ denotes the process of left limits, i.e., Y_=\lim_Y_s. The concept is named after Catherine Doléans-Dade. Stochastic exponential plays an important role in the formulation of Girsanov's theorem and arises naturally in all applications where relative changes are important since X measures the cumulative percentage change in Y. Notation and terminology Process Y obtained above is commonly denoted by \mathcal(X). The terminology "stochastic exponential" arises from the similarity of \mathcal(X)=Y to the natural exponential of X: If ''X'' is absolutely continuous with respect to time, then ''Y'' solves, path-by-path, the differential equation dY_t/\mathrmt = Y_tdX_t/dt, whose solution is Y=\exp(X-X_0). General formula and special cases * Without any assumptions on ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Geometric Brownian Motion
A geometric Brownian motion (GBM) (also known as exponential Brownian motion) is a continuous-time stochastic process in which the logarithm of the randomly varying quantity follows a Brownian motion (also called a Wiener process) with drift. It is an important example of stochastic processes satisfying a stochastic differential equation (SDE); in particular, it is used in mathematical finance to model stock prices in the Black–Scholes model. Technical definition: the SDE A stochastic process ''S''''t'' is said to follow a GBM if it satisfies the following stochastic differential equation (SDE): : dS_t = \mu S_t\,dt + \sigma S_t\,dW_t where W_t is a Wiener process or Brownian motion, and \mu ('the percentage drift') and \sigma ('the percentage volatility') are constants. The former parameter is used to model deterministic trends, while the latter parameter models unpredictable events occurring during the motion. Solving the SDE For an arbitrary initial value ''S' ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Wald's Equation
In probability theory, Wald's equation, Wald's identity or Wald's lemma is an important identity (mathematics), identity that simplifies the calculation of the expected value of the sum of a random number of random quantities. In its simplest form, it relates the expectation of a sum of randomly many finite-mean, independent and identically distributed random variables to the expected number of terms in the sum and the random variables' common expectation under the condition that the number of terms in the sum is Independence (probability theory), independent of the summands. The equation is named after the mathematician Abraham Wald. An identity for the second moment is given by the Blackwell–Girshick equation. Basic version Let be a sequence of real-valued, independent and identically distributed random variables and let be an integer-valued random variable that is independent of the sequence . Suppose that and the have finite expectations. Then :\operatorname[X_1+\dots+X_ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
