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Statistical Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Estimation
Estimation (or estimating) is the process of finding an estimate or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable. The value is nonetheless usable because it is derived from the best information available.C. Lon Enloe, Elizabeth Garnett, Jonathan Miles, ''Physical Science: What the Technology Professional Needs to Know'' (2000), p. 47. Typically, estimation involves "using the value of a statistic derived from a sample to estimate the value of a corresponding population parameter".Raymond A. Kent, "Estimation", ''Data Construction and Data Analysis for Survey Research'' (2001), p. 157. The sample provides information that can be projected, through various formal or informal processes, to determine a range most likely to describe the missing information. An estimate that turns out to be incorrect will be an overestimate if the estimate exceeds the actual result and an underestimate if the estimate fall ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Supply Chain Management
In commerce, supply chain management (SCM) is the management of the flow of goods and services including all processes that transform raw materials into final products between businesses and locations. This can include the movement and storage of raw materials, work-in-process inventory, finished goods, and end to end order fulfilment from the point of origin to the point of consumption. Interconnected, interrelated or interlinked networks, channels and node businesses combine in the provision of products and services required by end customers in a supply chain. Supply-chain management has been defined as the "design, planning, execution, control, and monitoring of supply chain activities with the objective of creating net value, building a competitive infrastructure, leveraging worldwide logistics, synchronising supply with demand and measuring performance globally". SCM practice draws heavily on industrial engineering, systems engineering, operations management, logis ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sales Forecasting
Sales operations is a set of business activities and processes that help a sales organization run effectively, efficiently and in support of business strategies and objectives. Sales operations may also be referred to as sales, sales support, or business operations. Categories The set of sales operations activities vary from company to company but often include these five categories:< Sales force enablement * Sales process development * Sales process adoption and compliance * Sales development * Sales training * Sales force communications management Business analytics * Sales metrics * Sales forecasting Sales administration * Proposal/contract development * Vendor selection and management * Planning process stewardship Attainment planning * Incentive sales compensation plan design * GTM strategy alignment with roles and components * Territory analysis and definition * Goal setting Sales operations mandate and design * Chief of staff to the sales organization * Stewardship ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Product Forecasting
Product forecasting is the science of predicting the degree of success a new product will enjoy in the marketplace. To do this, the forecasting model must take into account such things as product awareness, distribution, price A price is the (usually not negative) quantity of payment or compensation given by one party to another in return for goods or services. In some situations, the price of production has a different name. If the product is a "good" in the c ..., fulfilling unmet needs and competitive alternatives. Bass model Bass model is one type of forecasting method primarily used in new product forecasting. In general, there will be no historical demand for new product. Then, Bass model tries to capture shape of demand of existing product and apply new product. \frac = p + \frac{m} N(t) where, * F(t) is the probability of adoption at time t * f(t) is the rate at which adoption is changing with respect to t * N(t) is the number of adopters at time t * m is the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Political Forecasting
Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relating to politicians and political institutions. The area of political forecasting concerning elections is highly popular, especially amongst mass market audiences. Political forecasting methodology makes frequent use of mathematics, statistics and data science. Political forecasting as it pertains to elections is related to psephology. History of Election Forecasting People have long been interested in predicting election outcomes. Quotes of betting odds on Pope, papal succession appear as early as 1503, when such wagering was already considered "an old practice." Political betting also has a long history in Great Britain. As one prominent example, Charles James Fox, the late-eighteenth-century Whig statesman, was known as an inveterate gambler. His biographer, George Otto Trevelyan, n ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
PECOTA
PECOTA, an acronym for ''Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm'', is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is a backronym based on the name of journeyman major league player Bill Pecota, who, with a lifetime batting average of .249, is perhaps representative of the typical PECOTA entry. PECOTA was developed by Nate Silver in 2002–2003 and introduced to the public in the book ''Baseball Prospectus 2003''. Baseball Prospectus (BP) has owned PECOTA since 2003; Silver managed PECOTA from 2003 to 2009. Beginning in Spring 2009, BP assumed responsibility for producing the annual forecasts, making 2010 the first baseball season for which Silver played no role in producing PECOTA projections.Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein, "State of the Prospectus: Spring 2009,BaseballProspectus.com, March 24, 2009. One of several widely publicized statistical systems of forecasts of player performance, PECOTA player forecasts are mar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Land Use Forecasting
Land-use forecasting undertakes to project the distribution and intensity of trip generation, trip generating activities in the metropolitan area, urban area. In practice, land-use models are demand-driven, using as inputs the aggregate information on growth produced by an aggregate economic forecasting activity. Land-use estimates are inputs to the transportation planning process. The discussion of land-use forecasting to follow begins with a review of the Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS) effort. CATS researchers did interesting work, but did not produce a transferable forecasting model, and researchers elsewhere worked to develop models. After reviewing the CATS work, the discussion will turn to the first model to be widely known and emulated: the Lowry model developed by Ira S. Lowry when he was working for the Pittsburgh Regional Economic Study. Second and third generation Lowry models are now available and widely used, as well as interesting features incorporated ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Credit Score
A credit score is a numerical expression based on a level analysis of a person's credit files, to represent the creditworthiness of an individual. A credit score is primarily based on a credit report, information typically sourced from credit bureaus. Lenders, such as banks and credit card companies, use credit scores to evaluate the potential risk posed by lending money to consumers and to mitigate losses due to bad debt. Lenders use credit scores to determine who qualifies for a loan, at what interest rate, and what credit limits. Lenders also use credit scores to determine which customers are likely to bring in the most revenue. Credit scoring is not limited to banks. Other organizations, such as mobile phone companies, insurance companies, landlords, and government departments employ the same techniques. Digital finance companies such as online lenders also use alternative data sources to calculate the creditworthiness of borrowers. By country Australia In Australia, cre ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Credit Rating
A credit rating is an evaluation of the credit risk of a prospective debtor (an individual, a business, company or a government), predicting their ability to pay back the debt, and an implicit forecast of the likelihood of the debtor defaulting. The credit rating represents an evaluation of a credit rating agency of the qualitative and quantitative information for the prospective debtor, including information provided by the prospective debtor and other non-public information obtained by the credit rating agency's analysts. Credit reporting (or credit score) – is a subset of credit rating – it is a numeric evaluation of an ''individual's'' credit worthiness, which is done by a credit bureau or consumer credit reporting agency. Sovereign credit ratings A sovereign credit rating is the credit rating of a sovereign entity, such as a national government. The sovereign credit rating indicates the risk level of the investing environment of a country and is used by investors whe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Default (finance)
In finance, default is failure to meet the legal obligations (or conditions) of a loan, for example when a home buyer fails to make a mortgage payment, or when a corporation or government fails to pay a bond which has reached maturity. A national or sovereign default is the failure or refusal of a government to repay its national debt. The biggest private default in history is Lehman Brothers, with over $600 billion when it filed for bankruptcy in 2008. The biggest sovereign default is Greece, with $138 billion in March 2012. Distinction from insolvency, illiquidity and bankruptcy The term "default" should be distinguished from the terms "insolvency", illiquidity and " bankruptcy": * Default: Debtors have been passed behind the payment deadline on a debt whose payment was due. * Illiquidity: Debtors have insufficient cash (or other "liquefiable" assets) to pay debts. * Insolvency: A legal term meaning debtors are unable to pay their debts. * Bankruptcy: A legal finding tha ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Finance
Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly divided into personal, corporate, and public finance. In a financial system, assets are bought, sold, or traded as financial instruments, such as currencies, loans, bonds, shares, stocks, options, futures, etc. Assets can also be banked, invested, and insured to maximize value and minimize loss. In practice, risks are always present in any financial action and entities. A broad range of subfields within finance exist due to its wide scope. Asset, money, risk and investment management aim to maximize value and minimize volatility. Financial analysis is viability, stability, and profitability asse ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Energy Forecasting
Energy forecasting includes forecasting demand ( load) and price of electricity, fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, coal) and renewable energy sources (RES; hydro, wind, solar). Forecasting can be both expected price value and probabilistic forecasting. Background When electricity sectors were regulated, utility monopolies used short-term load forecasts to ensure the reliability of supply and long-term demand forecasts as the basis for planning and investing in new capacity. However, since the early 1990s, the process of deregulation and the introduction of competitive electricity markets have been reshaping the landscape of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. In many countries worldwide, electricity is now traded under market rules using spot and derivative contracts. At the corporate level, electricity load and price forecasts have become a fundamental input to energy companies’ decision making mechanisms. The costs of over- or undercontract ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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