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PECOTA
PECOTA, an acronym for ''Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm'', is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is a backronym based on the name of journeyman major league player Bill Pecota, who, with a lifetime batting average of .249, is perhaps representative of the typical PECOTA entry. PECOTA was developed by Nate Silver in 2002–2003 and introduced to the public in the book ''Baseball Prospectus 2003''. Baseball Prospectus (BP) has owned PECOTA since 2003; Silver managed PECOTA from 2003 to 2009. Beginning in Spring 2009, BP assumed responsibility for producing the annual forecasts, making 2010 the first baseball season for which Silver played no role in producing PECOTA projections.Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein, "State of the Prospectus: Spring 2009,BaseballProspectus.com, March 24, 2009. One of several widely publicized statistical systems of forecasts of player performance, PECOTA player forecasts are mar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Nate Silver
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of ''FiveThirtyEight'' and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009. Silver was named one of Time 100, The World's 100 Most Influential People by ''Time (magazine), Time'' in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 United States presidential election, 2008 U.S. Presidential election. In the 2012 United States presidential election, the forecasting system correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the Washington, D.C., District of Columbi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Prospectus (BP) is an organization that publishes a website, BaseballProspectus.com, devoted to the sabermetric analysis of baseball. BP has a staff of regular columnists and provides advanced statistics as well as player and team performance projections on the site. Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a ''Baseball Prospectus'' annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history. Baseball Prospectus has originated several popular new statistical tools that have become hallmarks of baseball analysis. Baseball Prospectus is accredited by the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Four of Baseball Prospectus's current regular writers are members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America and thus eligible to vote for nominees for Major League Baseball's post-season awards and the Baseball Hall of Fame. Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC Baseball Prospectus is formally an entity of Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC, a pr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sabermetric
Sabermetrics, or originally SABRmetrics, is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. Sabermetricians collect and summarize the relevant data from this in-game activity to answer specific questions. The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research, founded in 1971. The term "sabermetrics" was coined by Bill James, who is one of its pioneers and is often considered its most prominent advocate and public face. Early history Henry Chadwick, a sportswriter in New York, developed the box score in 1858. This was the first way statisticians were able to describe the sport of baseball by numerically tracking various aspects of game play. The creation of the box score has given baseball statisticians a summary of the individual and team performances for a given game. Sabermetrics research began in the middle of the 20th century with the writings of Earnshaw Cook, one of the earli ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bill Pecota
William Joseph Pecota (born February 16, 1960) is a former Major League Baseball infielder. He is the namesake of PECOTA, a sabermetric created by Nate Silver and owned by Baseball Prospectus. Early years Pecota attended Peterson High School in Sunnyvale, California. He was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the tenth round of the January draft after playing at De Anza College in Cupertino, California. He batted .253 with 31 home runs and 267 runs batted in over six seasons in the Royals' farm system when he debuted with the Royals in September . Kansas City Royals Pecota accomplished the rare feat of getting his first major league RBI before his first major league hit. On September 22, in his sixth plate appearance, he drove in Jim Sundberg with a sacrifice fly. On September 25, he doubled off Frank Viola for his first major league hit. He started the season with the Omaha Royals but was up in the majors by the end of April. He went back-to-back with Bo Jackson on ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Similarity Score
In sabermetrics and basketball analytics, similarity scores are a method of comparing baseball and basketball players (usually in MLB or the NBA) to other players, with the intent of discovering who the most similar historical players are to a certain player. Similarity scores are among the many original sabermetric concepts first introduced by Bill James. James initially created the concept as a way to effectively compare non-Hall of Fame players to players in the Hall, to see who was either on track to make the HOF, or to determine if any eligible players had been snubbed by the selection committee. For example, if the most similar players to a non-HOFer were all in the Hall of Fame, one could effectively argue that that player should be in the Hall. More recently, similarity scores have been used to determine career paths and projected statistics for players. The logic behind this line of thought is simple: players often follow similar career trajectories to their most similar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
FiveThirtyEight
''FiveThirtyEight'', sometimes rendered as ''538'', is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of ''The New York Times'' online and renamed ''FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus''. In July 2013, ESPN acquired ''FiveThirtyEight'', hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for ''ESPN.com''; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014. Since then, the ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company). During the pr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Earned Run Average
In baseball statistics, earned run average (ERA) is the average of earned runs allowed by a pitcher per nine innings pitched (i.e. the traditional length of a game). It is determined by dividing the number of earned runs allowed by the number of innings pitched and multiplying by nine. Thus, a lower ERA is better. Runs resulting from passed balls or defensive errors (including pitchers' defensive errors) are recorded as unearned runs and omitted from ERA calculations. Origins Henry Chadwick is credited with devising the statistic, which caught on as a measure of pitching effectiveness after relief pitching came into vogue in the 1900s. Prior to 1900—and, in fact, for many years afterward—pitchers were routinely expected to pitch a complete game, and their win–loss record was considered sufficient in determining their effectiveness. After pitchers like James Otis Crandall and Charley Hall made names for themselves as relief specialists, gauging a pitcher's e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Equivalent Average
Equivalent Average (EqA) is a baseball metric invented by Clay Davenport and intended to express the production of hitters in a context independent of park and league effects. It represents a hitter's productivity using the same scale as batting average. Thus, a hitter with an EqA over .300 is a very good hitter, while a hitter with an EqA of .220 or below is poor. An EqA of .260 is defined as league average. The date EqA was invented cannot readily be documented, but references to it were being offered on the rec.sport.baseball usenet group as early as January 14, 1996. Baseball Prospectus renamed it True Average (TAv) in 2010, in an attempt to make it more accessible. Definition and rationale In the formula given in the box above, the abbreviations are: H=Hit, TB=Total bases, BB=Bases on balls (walks), HBP=Hit by pitch, SB=Stolen base, SH=Sacrifice hit (typically, sacrifice bunt), SF=Sacrifice fly, AB=At bat, CS=Caught stealing. EqA is one of several sabermetric approaches w ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Point Estimation
In statistics, point estimation involves the use of sample data to calculate a single value (known as a point estimate since it identifies a point in some parameter space) which is to serve as a "best guess" or "best estimate" of an unknown population parameter (for example, the population mean). More formally, it is the application of a point estimator to the data to obtain a point estimate. Point estimation can be contrasted with interval estimation: such interval estimates are typically either confidence intervals, in the case of frequentist inference, or credible intervals, in the case of Bayesian inference. More generally, a point estimator can be contrasted with a set estimator. Examples are given by confidence sets or credible sets. A point estimator can also be contrasted with a distribution estimator. Examples are given by confidence distributions, randomized estimators, and Bayesian posteriors. Properties of point estimates Biasness “Bias” is defined as the d ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is the mathematical function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes for an experiment. It is a mathematical description of a random phenomenon in terms of its sample space and the probabilities of events (subsets of the sample space). For instance, if is used to denote the outcome of a coin toss ("the experiment"), then the probability distribution of would take the value 0.5 (1 in 2 or 1/2) for , and 0.5 for (assuming that the coin is fair). Examples of random phenomena include the weather conditions at some future date, the height of a randomly selected person, the fraction of male students in a school, the results of a survey to be conducted, etc. Introduction A probability distribution is a mathematical description of the probabilities of events, subsets of the sample space. The sample space, often denoted by \Omega, is the set of all possible outcomes of a random phe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Clay Davenport
Clay Davenport is a baseball sabermetrician who co-founded Baseball Prospectus (BP) in 1996. He co-edited several of the ''Baseball Prospectus'' annual volumes and is a writer for BaseballProspectus.com. Much of his work for BP was behind the scenes, where he maintained and implemented advanced statistics for the website. For most of the time during which he contributed to Baseball Prospectus, Davenport's main employment was as a meteorologist. In March 2010, it was announced that he had moved to full-time status at Baseball Propectus. In 2011, he departed Baseball Prospectus, but maintains his own website ''ClayDavenport.com'' on which he continues to publish baseball analysis and projections. As he commented there in May 2011:As my title indicates, this is a place for me to keep some statistics I happen to care about. These are statistics that I've run at Baseball Prospectus for many years, but BP has decided to discontinue them – or at least transform into something I no long ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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