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Baseball Prospectus (BP) is an organization that publishes a website, BaseballProspectus.com, devoted to the
sabermetric Sabermetrics, or originally SABRmetrics, is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. Sabermetricians collect and summarize the relevant data from this in-game activity to answer specific ques ...
analysis of baseball. BP has a staff of regular columnists and provides advanced statistics as well as player and team performance projections on the site. Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a ''Baseball Prospectus'' annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history. Baseball Prospectus has originated several popular new statistical tools that have become hallmarks of baseball analysis. Baseball Prospectus is accredited by the
Baseball Writers' Association of America The Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) is a professional association for journalists writing about Major League Baseball for daily newspapers, magazines and qualifying websites. The organization was founded in 1908, and is known fo ...
. Four of Baseball Prospectus's current regular writers are members of the
Baseball Writers' Association of America The Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) is a professional association for journalists writing about Major League Baseball for daily newspapers, magazines and qualifying websites. The organization was founded in 1908, and is known fo ...
and thus eligible to vote for nominees for
Major League Baseball Major League Baseball (MLB) is a professional baseball organization and the oldest major professional sports league in the world. MLB is composed of 30 total teams, divided equally between the National League (NL) and the American League (AL), ...
's post-season awards and the
Baseball Hall of Fame The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum is a history museum and hall of fame in Cooperstown, New York, operated by private interests. It serves as the central point of the history of baseball in the United States and displays baseball-r ...
.


Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC

Baseball Prospectus is formally an entity of Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC, a private corporation that runs websites and publishes books focusing on the statistical analysis of the sports of
baseball Baseball is a bat-and-ball sport played between two teams of nine players each, taking turns batting and fielding. The game occurs over the course of several plays, with each play generally beginning when a player on the fielding tea ...
,
basketball Basketball is a team sport in which two teams, most commonly of five players each, opposing one another on a rectangular Basketball court, court, compete with the primary objective of #Shooting, shooting a basketball (ball), basketball (appr ...
, and
ice hockey Ice hockey (or simply hockey) is a team sport played on ice skates, usually on an ice skating rink with lines and markings specific to the sport. It belongs to a family of sports called hockey. In ice hockey, two opposing teams use ice hock ...
. As of August 2014, the President & CEO is Joe Hamrahi, and Vice President is Dave Pease. For several years, Prospectus Entertainment Ventures (''PEV'') partnered with Football Outsiders for the publication and promotion of ''Football Outsiders Almanac'' (), before 2009 called ''Pro Football Prospectus'' (). On October 10, 2007, PEV launched ''Basketball Prospectus,'' a new website for the analysis of men's college and pro basketball, with
Joe Sheehan Joseph S. Sheehan was born in New York City on February 26, 1971, and attended Regis High School. He graduated from the University of Southern California in 1994 with a degree in journalism. Sheehan lives in the New York City area. He is one of ...
taking the role of Managing Editor and announcing the lineup of principal writer-analysts for the site. Initially, this website did not require a subscription for access, but it introduced subscriptions in 2011 for access to most of the material on the site. ''BasketballProspectus.com''s first annual book, ''College Basketball Prospectus 2008–2009'' (), was published in October 2008. It released ''Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009–10'' for purchase online in October 2009. Subsequently, it published both ''College Basketball Prospectus 2010–11'' () and ''Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010–11'' () in both print and online (PDF) modes. On March 19, 2008, Imagine Sports announced a strategic partnership with PEV and Baseball Prospectus. Imagine sports owns the baseball simulation engine " Diamond Mind Baseball". On October 14, 2008, PEV announced the acquisition of ''Baseball Digest Daily'' (BDD), an online blog devoted to baseball analysis and statistics. Joe Hamrahi, new Chief Financial Officer of PEV and founder of BDD, reported that "PEV's decision to acquire Baseball Digest Daily further enhances the content offerings of Baseball Prospectus by adding some of the game's best analysts as well as over 100 pages of baseball news and original content. In addition, BDD's player tracker provides a platform for serious fans and fantasy baseball enthusiasts to easily monitor the progress of their teams, allowing users to manipulate and track the progress of an unlimited set of players over a customized period of time". At the same time, PEV revealed publicly that it "owns a significant interest in 538 '' (www.fivethirtyeight.com)'', a political analysis website that generates over 700,000 unique visitors daily." On February 23, 2009, Prospectus Entertainment Ventures (PEV) launched the website ''Puck Prospectus'' with the intent of providing cutting-edge analysis of hockey.
Will Carroll Will Carroll (born 1970) is an American sportswriter who specializes in the coverage of medical issues, including injuries and performance-enhancing drugs. Carroll's "Under the Knife" column appeared on '' Baseball Prospectus'' for eight years dur ...
assumed the role of the Executive Editor, and Andrew Rothstein, the founder of ''Puck Prospectus'', assumed the role of the Managing Editor. Puck Prospectus published its first annual book, ''Puck Prospectus 2010–2011'' () in both online and print formats. Initially a free site, ''Puck Prospectus'' introduced subscriptions in 2011. On March 24, 2009, Baseball Prospectus announced that
Nate Silver Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of ''FiveThirtyEight' ...
was stepping down as its Managing Partner, and Kevin Goldstein was assuming this role. At that time, PEV relinquished its previously announced financial interest in Silver's ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog. At the same time, it was announced that BP has a partnership relationship with
ESPN.com ESPN.com is the official website of ESPN. It is owned by ESPN Internet Ventures, a division of ESPN Inc. History Since launching in April 1995 as ESPNET.SportsZone.com (ESPNET SportsZone), the website has developed numerous sections including ...
.Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein, "State of the Prospectus: Spring 2009"
BaseballProspectus.com, March 24, 2009
.
In January 2010, PEV's Managing Partner Kevin Goldstein reported that one of BP's founding members, Joe Sheehan, had departed the organization. He reported that John Perrotto had been elevated to full-time status on the BP staff and would become the new Editor-in-Chief of ''BaseballProspectus.com'', taking over that responsibility from Christina Kahrl. And he reported that Jeff Euston was joining the BP staff and that Euston's ''Cot's Baseball Contracts'' website would be joining the Baseball Prospectus family. In February 2011, Perrotto was replaced as Editor-in-Chief by Steven Goldman. In February 2010, BP's "Fantasy Manager" Marc Normandin announced that BP had established a partnership with ''Heater Magazine.''Marc Normandin, "The New BP Fantasy"
BaseballProspectus.com, February 25, 2010
''Heater Magazine'' ceased publication after the 2010 season. In November 2011, Kevin Goldstein announced that he was stepping down as PEV's Managing Partner in favor of Joe Hamrahi. On March 3, 2012, Hamrahi announced that Steven Goldman was stepping down as Editor-in-Chief of BaseballProspectus.com; Goldman had taken a position as a lead baseball writer for ''
Bleacher Report Bleacher Report (often abbreviated as B/R) is a website that focuses on sport and sports culture. Its headquarters are in San Francisco, with offices in New York City and London. Bleacher Report was acquired by Turner Broadcasting System in Aug ...
''. Ben Lindbergh was named Managing Editor of Baseball Prospectus on March 5, 2012 and Editor-in-Chief of Baseball Prospectus on July 13, 2012. On April 30, 2012, PEV's Managing Partner Joe Hamrahi announced that "Dan Brooks, Harry Pavlidis, and Brooks Baseball have agreed to team up and join forces with Baseball Prospectus
BrooksBaseball.net
is the premier site for
PITCHf/x PITCHf/x is a system created and maintained by Sportvision that tracks the speeds and trajectories of pitched baseballs. This system, which made its debut in the 2006 Major League Baseball (MLB) postseason, is installed in every MLB stadium. The ...
analysis and pitch classification". On March 15, 2013, after explaining a week earlier that its key staff of writers had been hired away by
ESPN ESPN (originally an initialism for Entertainment and Sports Programming Network) is an American international basic cable sports channel owned by ESPN Inc., owned jointly by The Walt Disney Company (80%) and Hearst Communications (20%). The ...
, Baseball Prospectus's Dave Pease declared in response to a question in the comments: "Basketball Prospectus will not be publishing any new content. We are going quiet. The archives will remain available. Thank you". On March 8, Pease had written: "You've probably noticed our Basketball Prospectus Premium coverage has been pretty quiet lately. You may have also noticed that our core pro writers, Kevin Pelton, Bradford Doolittle, and John Gasaway are now writing for ESPN Insider on a regular basis. Late last year, we learned that, following their completion of the Pro Basketball Prospectus 2012–13 and College Basketball Prospectus 2012–13 annuals, Kevin, Bradford, and John would be moving to ESPN on a full-time basis".


History

Baseball Prospectus (sometimes referred to as BP) was founded in 1996 by Gary Huckabay, who recruited the initial contributor group of
Clay Davenport Clay Davenport is a baseball sabermetrician who co-founded Baseball Prospectus (BP) in 1996. He co-edited several of the ''Baseball Prospectus'' annual volumes and is a writer for BaseballProspectus.com. Much of his work for BP was behind the sce ...
,
Rany Jazayerli Rany Jazayerli (born June 14, 1975), a Chicago-area dermatologist, is a co-founder of and writer for Baseball Prospectus. He developed the statistical concept of Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP), which relates to high pitch counts in baseball. Jazayerli ...
, Christina Kahrl, and
Joe Sheehan Joseph S. Sheehan was born in New York City on February 26, 1971, and attended Regis High School. He graduated from the University of Southern California in 1994 with a degree in journalism. Sheehan lives in the New York City area. He is one of ...
, with the publication of the first annual set of forecasts. "That first year, BP charged $20 for a statistics guide produced on a photocopier. It printed around 300 copies and sold about 170 to fellow statheads, even though the book was missing the
St. Louis Cardinals The St. Louis Cardinals are an American professional baseball team based in St. Louis. The Cardinals compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the National League (NL) Central division. Since the 2006 season, the Cardinals ha ...
. 'It was terrible,' recalls Kahrl, 'but it nevertheless didn't discourage us.' Within a few years Brassey's Inc. published the guide, which grew to about 3,000 copies. By 2007 it reached ''
The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...
'' bestseller list, topping 70,000 copies at $21.95 a pop." The kind of
sabermetric Sabermetrics, or originally SABRmetrics, is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. Sabermetricians collect and summarize the relevant data from this in-game activity to answer specific ques ...
approach favored by Baseball Prospectus has gained significant acceptance by the management of many
Major League Baseball Major League Baseball (MLB) is a professional baseball organization and the oldest major professional sports league in the world. MLB is composed of 30 total teams, divided equally between the National League (NL) and the American League (AL), ...
clubs, notably the
Boston Red Sox The Boston Red Sox are an American professional baseball team based in Boston. The Red Sox compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) East division. Founded in as one of the American League's eight ...
and
Cleveland Indians The Cleveland Guardians are an American professional baseball team based in Cleveland. The Guardians compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) Central division. Since , they have played at Progressive F ...
. BP has often been considered the modern successor to
Bill James George William James (born October 5, 1949) is an American baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. ...
' ''Baseball Abstract'' series of books in the 1980s. Reflecting its legacy as a group of sabermetricians who met over the Internet, BP has no "main office." Working for BP is a second or part-time job for many of the regular staff, who conduct their work for BP in their own home offices. The website ''BaseballProspectus.com'' began in 1997 primarily as a way to present original
sabermetric Sabermetrics, or originally SABRmetrics, is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. Sabermetricians collect and summarize the relevant data from this in-game activity to answer specific ques ...
research; publish advanced baseball statistics such as EqA, the Davenport Translations (DT's), and
VORP In baseball, value over replacement player (or VORP) is a statistic popularized by Keith Woolner that demonstrates how much a hitter or pitcher contributes to their team in comparison to a replacement-level player who is an average fielder at that ...
; and promote sales of the annual book. Beginning in 2003, the site placed most of its new articles, its
PECOTA PECOTA, an acronym for ''Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm'', is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is a backronym based on the name of journeyman major league player Bil ...
forecasts, and some of its statistical databases in a "premium" section that could be accessed only by subscription. However, in May 2011, BP "announced it has made its entire archive of premium and fantasy content over one year old completely and permanently free to the public". Until 2007, when the site began to post general advertising, the premium subscriptions and book sales were Baseball Prospectus' main source of revenues. Baseball Prospectus does not publish a financial report or information about its subscriber base, but it appears to have used its income to expand its breadth of coverage, and it has not increased its subscription prices since initiating its premium service. It also offers a subscription to those interested in
fantasy baseball Fantasy baseball is a game in which the participants serve as owners and general managers of virtual baseball teams. The competitors select their rosters by participating in a draft in which all relevant Major League Baseball (MLB) players are ava ...
, at a lower price than the premium subscriptions and giving access to fewer features and articles. ''BaseballProspectus.com'' has a corps of staff writers who publish articles on a regular (typically weekly) basis under a featured heading. In addition, occasional articles are published by other BP staff or freelance authors. Some former regular writers no longer appear on the site but are employed on the staffs of major league baseball organizations, including as of 2014 Keith Woolner (
Cleveland Indians The Cleveland Guardians are an American professional baseball team based in Cleveland. The Guardians compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) Central division. Since , they have played at Progressive F ...
), James Click (
Tampa Bay Rays The Tampa Bay Rays are an American professional baseball team based in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Rays compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) American League East, East division. Since its inception ...
), Dan Fox (
Pittsburgh Pirates The Pittsburgh Pirates are an American professional baseball team based in Pittsburgh. The Pirates compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the National League (NL) Central division. Founded as part of the American Associati ...
), Mike Fast (
Houston Astros The Houston Astros are an American professional baseball team based in Houston, Texas. The Astros compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) West division, having moved to the division in 2013 after ...
), Kevin Goldstein (Houston Astros), and Colin Wyers (Houston Astros). In addition, Keith Law, now a columnist for
The Athletic ''The Athletic'' is a subscription-based sports website that provides national and local coverage in 47 North American cities as well as the United Kingdom. ''The Athletic'' also covers national stories from top professional and college sports ...
, in 2002 moved from Baseball Prospectus to work o
player evaluation
in the front office of the
Toronto Blue Jays The Toronto Blue Jays are a Canadian professional baseball team based in Toronto. The Blue Jays compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) East division. Since 1989, the team has played its home games ...
. In 2009, Nate Silver turned his full attention to his
FiveThirtyEight ''FiveThirtyEight'', sometimes rendered as ''538'', is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in th ...
political analysis website; he resigned his executive post at BP and handed over management of PECOTA to other BP staff. Given the competing career opportunities for some of BP's best-known and most statistics-savvy analysts, maintaining a fresh supply of sabermetrically sophisticated writers remains a challenge. During the 2009 baseball season, BP ran a multi-week open talent search competition in the spirit of the popular television program ''
American Idol ''American Idol'' is an American singing competition television series created by Simon Fuller, produced by Fremantle North America and 19 Entertainment, and distributed by Fremantle North America. It aired on Fox from June 11, 2002, to Ap ...
'', in which aspiring writers submitted articles for evaluation by BP's staff members, with one contestant a week from among the final ten selected by the staff then voted off by the subscribers. At least three new regular BP writers (winner Ken Funck, Tim Kniker, and Matt Swartz) were discovered through this ''Prospectus Idol'' contest. In addition, BP had added Eric Seidman to its staff early in 2009 and then acquired Russell Carleton ("Pizza Cutter") and Colin Wyers in December 2009 to bolster its coverage of technical sabermetric issues. As late as the Fall of 2008, Seidman, Swartz, Carleton, Wyers, Daniel Novick and BP Idol finalist Brian Cartwright made up the entire staff of "Statistically Speaking" aka StatSpeak at MVN.com. Carleton left the BP staff in May 2010, but returned in July 2012. Seidman and Swartz left in February 2011. Wyers was hired away by the Houston Astros in October 2013. In the press release announcing his hire, Jeff Luhnow noted, "Colin Wyers is a brilliant man with lots of well thought-out, practical, ideas. He is insuring the financial security of this company for years to come. Oh yes, and his personal hygiene is above reproach". Wyers' final article for BP reviewed the history and process of the "brain drain" of sabermetricians as writers to baseball analytics specialists working for Major League Baseball itself: "Colleges can crank out people who know and understand the tools, but the sabermetrics community has given teams people who have demonstrated that they can use those tools to find useful insights into the game of baseball. So teams court them as part of their effort to win games". Although the site maintains a strong sabermetric core and has expanded its statistical databases, it regularly attends to issues such as baseball prospects (the First Year Player Draft and minor league baseball), international baseball, the economics and business of baseball (valuation of players, team and stadium finances, the player marketplace), and
fantasy baseball Fantasy baseball is a game in which the participants serve as owners and general managers of virtual baseball teams. The competitors select their rosters by participating in a draft in which all relevant Major League Baseball (MLB) players are ava ...
(PECOTA, the "Fantasy Focus" series of articles, forecast manager and other fantasy tools). BP HAS also published monographs on specialized topics, including the application of sabermetric analysis to historical topics – an emphasis clearly seen in ''Mind Game'' (2005 – a history of the Boston Red Sox), ''Baseball Between the Numbers'' (2006 – which addresses some historical comparisons), and ''It Ain't Over 'til It's Over'' (2007 – about historical pennant races). By the beginning of the 2011 baseball season, none of BP's founders was an active contributor to the website or publications, though some of their earlier articles were included in two ''Best of Baseball Prospectus'' compendia that were published in 2011.


Products

Baseball Prospectus creates several products:


Website

*The website www.baseballprospectus.com, which contains articles, statistical reports, and fantasy baseball tools. The site contains some free content, although it has become increasingly available only by paid subscription. Authors write regular bylined columns on the site and numerous other writers contribute occasional articles. The site also covers baseball history as well as current issues and events, including games and series, injuries, forecasts, player profiles, baseball finance, and the player marketplace.


BP annual and ''Futures Guide''

* Every year, BP publishes a print guide to the upcoming baseball season, called the "annual." The annual contains essays on each team and other topics, as well as
PECOTA PECOTA, an acronym for ''Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm'', is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is a backronym based on the name of journeyman major league player Bil ...
projections and analysis for every Major League player and many prospects. BP also publishes a separate annual ''Futures Guide'' with extensive reporting on minor league and amateur prospects.


Other books

* Other baseball-related books, such as ''Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning'' (2005) () and ''Baseball Between the Numbers'' (2006) (). The latter was chosen by the editors of Amazon.com as the best book on baseball (and third best on sports in general) published in 2006.


Podcasts

* ''Effectively Wild'', the daily Baseball Prospectus podcast, ran on the site until episode 1006, when Sam Miller left to join ESPN. As of August 2020, the podcast continues on FanGraphs and is hosted by Miller, former BP editor-in-chief Ben Lindbergh and FanGraphs managing editor Meg Rowley. * ''Flags Fly Forever'', a traditional fantasy baseball league-focused podcast, has run weekly since January 2014. * ''Five and Dive'', a twice-weekly podcast on various baseball topics hosted by BP editor-in-chief Craig Goldstein, ''Sports Illustrated'' writer Emma Baccellieri, and Bradford William Davis of the New York ''Daily News''. * ''For All You Kids Out There'', a weekly podcast focusing on the New York Mets organization hosted by BP writers Jeffrey Paternostro and Jarrett Seidler. * ''Stolen Signs'', a podcast on baseball statistics and the people who develop them hosted by Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis. * ''The Infinite Inning'', a weekly podcast on the intersection of baseball and culture hosted by BP writer Steven Goldman. * ''Three-Quarters Delivery'', a weekly podcast on minor league baseball and player development. * ''TINO'' (''There Is No Offseason'') a dynasty league
fantasy baseball Fantasy baseball is a game in which the participants serve as owners and general managers of virtual baseball teams. The competitors select their rosters by participating in a draft in which all relevant Major League Baseball (MLB) players are ava ...
podcast, has run regularly since January 2014.


Internet Baseball Awards

* The annual Internet Baseball Awards (IBA) are based on fan voting. They started in 1991 with the Most Valuable Player, Cy Young (pitcher), and Rookie of the Year awards, in each of the two major leagues. In 1998, an award for Manager of the Year was added in each league.


Theories

Baseball Prospectus writers promote several theories on proper baseball management and analysis, many of which are contrary to those of conventional baseball wisdom.


Clutch hitting

Baseball Prospectus researchers have concluded that there is no repeatable ability of
clutch hitting A clutch hitter is a baseball player who is seemingly adept at getting a hit in high-pressure situations, i.e. in the clutch. This usually refers to getting a hit (particularly a home run) when the player's team is trailing late in a game and need ...
. As writer
Joe Sheehan Joseph S. Sheehan was born in New York City on February 26, 1971, and attended Regis High School. He graduated from the University of Southern California in 1994 with a degree in journalism. Sheehan lives in the New York City area. He is one of ...
said, "Over the course of a game, a month, a season or a career, there is virtually no evidence that any player or group of players possesses an ability to outperform his established level of ability in clutch situations, however defined." They cite studies which find that there is insignificant correlation between year-to-year performance in clutch situations. In an article published in 2006,
Nate Silver Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of ''FiveThirtyEight' ...
argued that clutch hitting ability does exist to a degree. He argued that although not as important as traditional baseball analysis would suggest, clutch hitting ability was more significant than other
sabermetric Sabermetrics, or originally SABRmetrics, is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. Sabermetricians collect and summarize the relevant data from this in-game activity to answer specific ques ...
studies had shown. The article also found there to be a connection between clutch hitting ability and situational hitting, or the ability to adjust a hitting approach to fit the given situation.


Views on traditional statistics

Baseball Prospectus writers often successfully argue that traditional baseball statistics such as
RBIs A run batted in (RBI; plural RBIs ) is a statistic in baseball and softball that credits a batter for making a play that allows a run to be scored (except in certain situations such as when an error is made on the play). For example, if the bat ...
, wins, and
batting average Batting average is a statistic in cricket, baseball, and softball that measures the performance of batters. The development of the baseball statistic was influenced by the cricket statistic. Cricket In cricket, a player's batting average is ...
are poor reflections of a player's true contributions. For example, they have argued that RBIs are too dependent on factors outside of the player's control, namely the production of other hitters in the lineup. They similarly argue that wins are too affected by factors such as the team's offense and bullpen.


Closer usage

Baseball Prospectus writers assert that teams are typically inefficient in their use of their best relievers. Teams typically assign their most effective reliever to the position of closer, using him in only save situations. According to many Baseball Prospectus writers, a team's best reliever should be used when the opposing team has its best chance at increasing its chances of winning.


Views on sacrifice bunts and stolen bases

Many writers argue that the
sacrifice bunt In baseball, a sacrifice bunt (also called a sacrifice hit) is a batter's act of deliberately bunting the ball, before there are two outs, in a manner that allows a baserunner to advance to another base. The batter is almost always put out, and ...
and
stolen base In baseball, a stolen base occurs when a runner advances to a base to which they are not entitled and the official scorer rules that the advance should be credited to the action of the runner. The umpires determine whether the runner is safe or ...
are overused in baseball. Teams will often attempt these plays when the score is close. Writers for Baseball Prospectus often argue that teams are, on average, actually lowering their expected number of runs scored. They argue that stolen base attempts are not completed frequently enough for them to be beneficial to the offense. For sacrifice bunts, they argue that the team is giving up more by sacrificing an out than they gain by advancing a runner one base. Their thinking is derived from the grid of expected runs in an inning based on the outs and runner situation, which shows that the sacrifice is detrimental to a team given average players in most of the situations in which it is typically used. In a series of articles in 2004, James Click argued that sacrifice bunts are beneficial in some situations, dependent on the quality of the batter at the plate and the situation in the game.


Statistical tools

Baseball Prospectus writers use a wide variety of sabermetric tools. Among the major tools that they are credited with inventing are: * Equivalent average (EqA) – a combination of various hitting numbers designed to express a player's overall offensive contribution. *Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR) – a statistic indicating a player's rate of run production resulting from his baserunning. * Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score (JAWS) – a metric "invented by Jay Jaffe to assess a player's worthiness for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame." *Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) – a measure of the impact of a particular start by a pitcher on his arm, based on
pitch count In baseball statistics, pitch count is the number of pitches thrown by a pitcher in a game. Pitch counts are especially a concern for young pitchers, pitchers recovering from injury, or pitchers who have a history of injuries. The pitcher wants ...
. *
Peripheral ERA Peripheral ERA (PERA) is a pitching statistic created by the Baseball Prospectus team. It is the expected earned run average taking into account park-adjusted hits, walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. Unlike Voros McCracken's DIPS, hits a ...
(PERA) – a pitcher's expected
ERA An era is a span of time defined for the purposes of chronology or historiography, as in the regnal eras in the history of a given monarchy, a calendar era used for a given calendar, or the geological eras defined for the history of Earth. Comp ...
based on park-adjusted hits, walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. *
PECOTA PECOTA, an acronym for ''Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm'', is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is a backronym based on the name of journeyman major league player Bil ...
– a system of player projection based on similarity to previous player seasons. *
Value over replacement player In baseball, value over replacement player (or VORP) is a statistic popularized by Keith Woolner that demonstrates how much a hitter or pitcher contributes to their team in comparison to a replacement-level player who is an average fielder at that ...
(VORP) – a measurement of the number of runs contributed by a player over the expected level of performance the average team can obtain if it needs to replace a starting player at minimal cost.
Voros McCracken Robert "Voros" McCracken (born August 17, 1971, Chicago) is an American baseball sabermetrician. "Voros" (vörös in hungarian = red in english) is a nickname from his partial Hungarian heritage. He is widely recognized for his pioneering work on ...
's pathbreaking article on Defense Independent Pitching Statistics also first appeared on the BP website.


Notable contributors

Contributors to Baseball Prospectus include multiple notable sports figures, including: * Dave Cameron *
Will Carroll Will Carroll (born 1970) is an American sportswriter who specializes in the coverage of medical issues, including injuries and performance-enhancing drugs. Carroll's "Under the Knife" column appeared on '' Baseball Prospectus'' for eight years dur ...
*
Clay Davenport Clay Davenport is a baseball sabermetrician who co-founded Baseball Prospectus (BP) in 1996. He co-edited several of the ''Baseball Prospectus'' annual volumes and is a writer for BaseballProspectus.com. Much of his work for BP was behind the sce ...
*
Rany Jazayerli Rany Jazayerli (born June 14, 1975), a Chicago-area dermatologist, is a co-founder of and writer for Baseball Prospectus. He developed the statistical concept of Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP), which relates to high pitch counts in baseball. Jazayerli ...
* Christina Kahrl *
Jonah Keri Jonah Keri (born September 20, 1974) is a Canadian former journalist, sportswriter, and editor. He is currently serving a prison sentence after pleading guilty to multiple counts of domestic violence offences. Early life and education Keri is ...
* Keith Law *
Doug Pappas Doug Pappas (1961–2004) was a baseball writer and researcher who was considered a foremost expert on the business of baseball. Pappas was a graduate of the University of Chicago (1982) and the University of Michigan Law School (1985), where he ha ...
* John Perrotto *
Dayn Perry Dayn Perry (born 1972) is an author and baseball journalist. He was also a special consultant for the San Diego Padres from 2001–2003. Journalism Perry has written for publications including FanGraphs online journal NotGraphs, ESPN, Baseball ...
*
Joe Sheehan Joseph S. Sheehan was born in New York City on February 26, 1971, and attended Regis High School. He graduated from the University of Southern California in 1994 with a degree in journalism. Sheehan lives in the New York City area. He is one of ...
*
Nate Silver Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of ''FiveThirtyEight' ...
*
Keith Woolner Keith Woolner (born c. 1968) is an author for Baseball Prospectus and is the creator of the statistic Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). VORP is acknowledged by the sabermetrics community as one of the key concepts in the analysis of a player's p ...


Criticism


Criticism of methodology

Baseball Prospectus, as well as other
sabermetric Sabermetrics, or originally SABRmetrics, is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. Sabermetricians collect and summarize the relevant data from this in-game activity to answer specific ques ...
analysts, are criticized for taking the human aspect out of the game of baseball. For example,
Murray Chass Murray Chass (born October 12, 1938, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) is an American baseball blogger. He previously wrote for '' The New York Times'' and before that the Associated Press on baseball and sports legal and labor relations. In 2003 the ...
of ''
The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...
'' wrote in an article that he did not want to hear or read about new-age baseball statistics any more (referencing
Value over replacement player In baseball, value over replacement player (or VORP) is a statistic popularized by Keith Woolner that demonstrates how much a hitter or pitcher contributes to their team in comparison to a replacement-level player who is an average fielder at that ...
specifically), saying:
"I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that's their prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans' enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein. People play baseball. Numbers don't."
Nate Silver Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of ''FiveThirtyEight' ...
, BP's Managing Partner at the time, responded to this criticism in "An Open Letter to Murray Chass," including offering to meet Chass to watch a ballgame. Silver expounded on the case for a positive impact of sabermetrics on the game of baseball in an article "How Sabermetrics Helps Build a Better Ballgame," published on ''Baseball Analysts.com''. Another type of criticism comes from those who believe that by broadening its coverage and audience, Baseball Prospectus is becoming more like the mainstream media and losing what made it unique. In response to a question along this line in an on-line chat, Silver wrote:
From a brand standpoint, we're more concerned about differentiation based on quality than differentiation based on where we fall on sort of the "saberpolitical" spectrum.


Criticism of journalistic standards

Baseball Prospectus was widely criticized for publishing and aggressively promoting a 2003 story claiming that banished player/manager
Pete Rose Peter Edward Rose Sr. (born April 14, 1941), also known by his nickname "Charlie Hustle", is an American former professional baseball player and manager. Rose played in Major League Baseball (MLB) from 1963 to 1986, most prominently as a membe ...
had reached an agreement to return to baseball.
Will Carroll Will Carroll (born 1970) is an American sportswriter who specializes in the coverage of medical issues, including injuries and performance-enhancing drugs. Carroll's "Under the Knife" column appeared on '' Baseball Prospectus'' for eight years dur ...
made the rounds on television and radio, claiming to have spoken to unnamed sources who had actually seen the agreement. Spokesmen for both Rose and Major League Baseball refuted the claim, but Carroll and his colleagues insisted their reporting was accurate. No other news source confirmed the story. In fact, Rose was not reinstated and remains banned from baseball.Baseball Hall of Fame website
"Why isn't Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame?"


Notes


External links


Articles by BP writers in ESPN archive, 2003Articles by BP writers in ESPN Insider archive
in Sports Illustrated vault
Baseball Prospectus websiteBaseball Daily Digest website
{Dead link, date=October 2019 , bot=InternetArchiveBot , fix-attempted=yes
Basketball Prospectus websiteHockey Prospectus websiteFootballOutsiders.com
Baseball mass media Baseball statistics Baseball websites Major League Baseball websites American sport websites Fantasy sports Publications established in 1996