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Psephology
Psephology (; from Greek el, ψῆφος, psephos, pebble, label=none) or political analysis is a branch of political science, the "quantitative analysis of elections and balloting". As such, psephology attempts to explain elections using the scientific method. Psephology is related to political forecasting. Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 in the United Kingdom by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) after he was asked by his friend R. B. McCallum for a word to describe the study of elections; first written use in 1952. [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Political Forecasting
Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relating to politicians and political institutions. The area of political forecasting concerning elections is highly popular, especially amongst mass market audiences. Political forecasting methodology makes frequent use of mathematics, statistics and data science. Political forecasting as it pertains to elections is related to psephology. History of Election Forecasting People have long been interested in predicting election outcomes. Quotes of betting odds on Pope, papal succession appear as early as 1503, when such wagering was already considered "an old practice." Political betting also has a long history in Great Britain. As one prominent example, Charles James Fox, the late-eighteenth-century Whig statesman, was known as an inveterate gambler. His biographer, George Otto Trevelyan, n ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
David Butler (academic)
Sir David Edgeworth Butler, (17 October 1924 – 8 November 2022) was an English political scientist, with a special interest in elections. Early life Born in London, Butler was educated at St Paul's School and New College, Oxford, and then at Princeton University as a Jane Eliza Procter Visiting Fellow from 1947 to 1948. He returned to Oxford as a researcher and academic at Nuffield College, where he taught throughout the remainder of his academic career. Career Between 1956 and 1957, Butler served as personal assistant to the British Ambassador to the United States. Butler was the author of many publications, but his most notable work is the series of Nuffield Election Studies which covers every United Kingdom General Election since 1945. Early co-authors included Richard Rose and Anthony King. From 1974 to 2005, the series was co-authored with Dennis Kavanagh. Butler was a commentator on the BBC's election night coverage from the 1950 election to the 1979 election, a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Antony Green
Antony John Green (born 2 March 1960) is an Australian psephologist and commentator. He is the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's chief election analyst. Early years and background Born in Warrington, Lancashire, in northern England, Green emigrated to Australia with his family in 1964. He attended James Ruse Agricultural High School in Sydney, graduating in 1977. Green graduated with a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with honours in politics from the University of Sydney. He worked initially as a data analyst in the computing industry and for a polling company before joining the ABC in 1989. Green recalls he saw an ad for a six-month position as an ABC election researcher and applied, along with 150 other applicants. His experience and his “slightly bubbly personality” helped him get the position. ABC producer Ian Carroll and journalist Kerry O’Brien recommended he stay on and he remains with the ABC until today. Career ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Voting
Voting is a method by which a group, such as a meeting or an electorate, can engage for the purpose of making a collective decision or expressing an opinion usually following discussions, debates or election campaigns. Democracies elect holders of high office by voting. Residents of a jurisdiction represented by an elected official are called "constituents," and the constituents who choose to cast a ballot for their chosen candidate are called "voters." There are different systems for collecting votes, but while many of the systems used in decision-making can also be used as electoral systems, any which cater for proportional representation can only be used in elections. In smaller organizations, voting can occur in many different ways. Formally via ballot to elect others for example within a workplace, to elect members of political associations or to choose roles for others. Informally voting could occur as a spoken agreement or as a verbal gesture like a raised hand or ele ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Opinion Poll
An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election) is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster. History The first known example of an opinion poll was a tallies of voter preferences reported on Telegram Messenger to the 1824 presidential election, showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the United States Presidency. Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the whole country, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena. In 1916, ''The Literary Digest'' embarked on a national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Election
An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy has operated since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the executive and judiciary, and for regional and local government. This process is also used in many other private and business organisations, from clubs to voluntary associations and corporations. The global use of elections as a tool for selecting representatives in modern representative democracies is in contrast with the practice in the democratic archetype, ancient Athens, where the elections were considered an oligarchic institution and most political offices were filled using sortition, also known as allotment, by which officeholders were chosen by lot. Electoral reform describes the process of introducing fair electoral systems wher ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Malcolm Mackerras
Malcolm Hugh Mackerras AO (born 26 August 1939) is an Australian psephologist and commentator and lecturer on Australian and American politics. Education and works Malcolm Mackerras was born at Turramurra in Sydney in August 1939. He is a brother of Sir Charles Mackerras, a well-known conductor, and twin brother of Professor Colin Mackerras, a leading China specialist. Another brother, Neil Mackerras, was active in the Democratic Labor Party in its early years. Yet another, Alastair Mackerras, was headmaster (principal) of Sydney Grammar School from 1969 to 1989. After attending St Aloysius' College, Milson's Point (1947–1951) and Sydney Grammar School (1952-1956) Malcolm was employed by BHP from 1957–1960, during which time he studied at night for the degree of Bachelor of Economics at the University of Sydney (awarded 1962). Mackerras was a member of the ACT Young Liberals in the late 1960s. His second employer was the Federal Secretariat of the Liberal Party of Aust ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Public Opinion Polls
An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election) is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster. History The first known example of an opinion poll was a tallies of voter preferences reported on Telegram Messenger to the 1824 presidential election, showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the United States Presidency. Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the whole country, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena. In 1916, ''The Literary Digest'' embarked on a national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Political Science
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and laws. Modern political science can generally be divided into the three subdisciplines of comparative politics, international relations, and political theory. Other notable subdisciplines are public policy and administration, domestic politics and government, political economy, and political methodology. Furthermore, political science is related to, and draws upon, the fields of economics, law, sociology, history, philosophy, human geography, political anthropology, and psychology. Political science is methodologically diverse and appropriates many methods originating in psychology, social research, and political philosophy. Approaches include positivism, interpretivism, rational choice theory, behaviouralism, structuralism, post-struct ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Swingometer
The swingometer is a graphics device that shows the effects of the swing from one party to another on British election results programmes. It is used to estimate the number of seats that will be won by different parties, given a particular national swing (in percentage points) in the vote towards or away from a given party, and assuming that that percentage change in the vote will apply in each constituency. The device was invented by Peter Milne, and later refined by David Butler and Robert McKenzie. The first outing on British television was during a regional output from the BBC studios in Bristol during the 1955 general election (the first UK general election to be televised) and was used to show the swing in the two constituencies of Southampton Itchen and Southampton Test. Following this use in 1955, the BBC adopted the swingometer on a national basis and it was unveiled in the national broadcasts for the 1959 general election. This swingometer merely showed the nationa ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
John Curtice
Sir John Kevin Curtice (born 10 December 1953) is a British political scientist who is currently professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research. He is particularly interested in electoral behaviour and researching political and social attitudes. He took a keen interest in the debate about Scottish independence. Early life Curtice was born on 10 December 1953. He grew up in St Austell and was educated at Truro School and Magdalen College, Oxford, where he read politics, philosophy and economics, and later transferred to Nuffield College as a postgraduate. Commitments and positions He serves as president of the British Polling Council, vice-chair of the Economic and Social Data Service's Advisory Committee and is a member of the editorial board of the ''Journal of Elections'', the Executive Committee of the British Politics Section of the American Political Science Association, and the Policy Advisor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Charlie Cook
Charles Edward Cook Jr. (born November 20, 1953) is an American political analyst who specializes in election forecasts and political trends. Cook writes election forecasts and rankings in the publication he founded, ''The Cook Political Report'', and in other media. He is a political analyst for the ''National Journal'' and since 1994 with National Broadcasting Company, NBC. Cook writes two columns for ''National Journal'', "The Cook Report" for the main publication and "Off to the Races" for the online National Journal Congress Daily. Since the 1984 United States presidential election, 1984 US presidential election, Cook has provided election night commentary for various television networks. Career Cook graduated in 1972 from Captain Shreve High School in Shreveport and attended Georgetown University in Washington, DC. Cook worked on Capitol Hill for then-Senator J. Bennett Johnston, a Democratic Party (United States), Democrat from Shreveport who served from 1972 to 1997. Co ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
