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Philip E. Tetlock
Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019. He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including '' Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction''; '' Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?''; ''Unmaking the West: What-if Scenarios that Rewrite World History''; and ''Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.'' Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. Biography Tetlock was born in 1954 in Toronto, Canada and completed his undergradu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Toronto
Toronto ( ; or ) is the capital city of the Canadian province of Ontario. With a recorded population of 2,794,356 in 2021, it is the most populous city in Canada and the fourth most populous city in North America. The city is the anchor of the Golden Horseshoe, an urban agglomeration of 9,765,188 people (as of 2021) surrounding the western end of Lake Ontario, while the Greater Toronto Area proper had a 2021 population of 6,712,341. Toronto is an international centre of business, finance, arts, sports and culture, and is recognized as one of the most multicultural and cosmopolitan cities in the world. Indigenous peoples have travelled through and inhabited the Toronto area, located on a broad sloping plateau interspersed with rivers, deep ravines, and urban forest, for more than 10,000 years. After the broadly disputed Toronto Purchase, when the Mississauga surrendered the area to the British Crown, the British established the town of York in 1793 and later d ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Good Judgment Project
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of ''Superforecasting'' and ''Expert Political Judgment''), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania. The project began as a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). It then extended its crowd wisdom to commercial activities, recruiting forecasters and aggregating the predictions of the most historically accurate among them to forecast future events. Predictions are scored using Brier scores. The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information." History The Good Judgment Project began in July 2011 in collaboration with the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program at IARPA (IARP ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Hedgehog And The Fox
''The Hedgehog and the Fox'' is an essay by philosopher Isaiah Berlin that was published as a book in 1953. It was one of his most popular essays with the general public. However, Berlin said, "I meant it as a kind of enjoyable intellectual game, but it was taken seriously. Every classification throws light on something". It has been compared to "an intellectual's cocktail-party game". Summary The title is a reference to a fragment attributed to the Ancient Greek poet Archilochus: ("a fox knows many things, but a hedgehog knows one big thing"). In Erasmus's ''Adagia'' from 1500, the expression is recorded as ''Multa novit vulpes, verum echinus unum magnum''. (The fable of ''The Fox and the Cat'' embodies the same idea.) Berlin expands upon this idea to divide writers and thinkers into two categories: hedgehogs, who view the world through the lens of a single defining idea (examples given include Plato, Lucretius, Dante Alighieri, Blaise Pascal, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Carnegie Corporation Of New York
The Carnegie Corporation of New York is a philanthropic fund established by Andrew Carnegie in 1911 to support education programs across the United States, and later the world. Carnegie Corporation has endowed or otherwise helped to establish institutions that include the United States National Research Council, what was then the Russian Research Center at Harvard University (now known as the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies), the Carnegie libraries and the Children's Television Workshop. It also for many years generously funded Carnegie's other philanthropic organizations, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching (CFAT), and the Carnegie Institution for Science (CIS). According to the OECD, Carnegie Corporation of New York's financing for 2019 development increased by 27% to US$24 million. History Founding and early years By 1911 Andrew Carnegie had endowed five organizations in the US an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Grawemeyer Award
The Grawemeyer Awards () are five awards given annually by the University of Louisville. The prizes are presented to individuals in the fields of education, ideas improving world order, music composition, religion, and psychology. The religion award is presented jointly by the University of Louisville and the Louisville Presbyterian Theological Seminary. Initially, the awards came with a bonus of US$150,000 each, making them among the most lucrative in their respective fields. This cash prize increased to $200,000 beginning in 2000 but the award amount dropped to $100,000 in 2011 after the fund for the prize lost money due to a drop in the stock market. The first award, for Music Composition, was presented in 1985. The award for Ideas Improving World Order was added in 1988 and Education in 1989. In 1990, a fourth award, Religion, was added as a joint prize between the university and the Louisville Presbyterian Theological Seminary. Psychology was added in 2000; the first award ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Russell Sage Foundation
The Russell Sage Foundation is an American non-profit organisation established by Margaret Olivia Sage in 1907 for “the improvement of social and living conditions in the United States.” It was named after her recently deceased husband, railroad executive Russell Sage. The foundation dedicates itself to strengthening the methods, data, and theoretical core of the social sciences in order to better understand societal problems and develop informed responses. It supports visiting scholars in residence and publishes books and a journal under its own imprint. It also funds researchers at other institutions and supports programs intended to develop new generations of social scientists. The foundation focuses on labor markets, immigration and ethnicity, and social inequality in the United States, as well as behavioral economics. History The Russell Sage Foundation was established in 1907 for "the improvement of social and living conditions in the United States" by a gift of $ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
John D
John is a common English name and surname: * John (given name) * John (surname) John may also refer to: New Testament Works * Gospel of John, a title often shortened to John * First Epistle of John, often shortened to 1 John * Second Epistle of John, often shortened to 2 John * Third Epistle of John, often shortened to 3 John People * John the Baptist (died c. AD 30), regarded as a prophet and the forerunner of Jesus Christ * John the Apostle (lived c. AD 30), one of the twelve apostles of Jesus * John the Evangelist, assigned author of the Fourth Gospel, once identified with the Apostle * John of Patmos, also known as John the Divine or John the Revelator, the author of the Book of Revelation, once identified with the Apostle * John the Presbyter, a figure either identified with or distinguished from the Apostle, the Evangelist and John of Patmos Other people with the given name Religious figures * John, father of Andrew the Apostle and Saint Peter * Pope ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
National Academy Of Sciences
The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a United States nonprofit, non-governmental organization. NAS is part of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, along with the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) and the National Academy of Medicine (NAM). As a national academy, new members of the organization are elected annually by current members, based on their distinguished and continuing achievements in original research. Election to the National Academy is one of the highest honors in the scientific field. Members of the National Academy of Sciences serve ''pro bono'' as "advisers to the nation" on science, engineering, and medicine. The group holds a congressional charter under Title 36 of the United States Code. Founded in 1863 as a result of an Act of Congress that was approved by Abraham Lincoln, the NAS is charged with "providing independent, objective advice to the nation on matters related to science and technology. ... to provide scien ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
American Academy Of Arts And Sciences
The American Academy of Arts and Sciences (abbreviation: AAA&S) is one of the oldest learned societies in the United States. It was founded in 1780 during the American Revolution by John Adams, John Hancock, James Bowdoin, Andrew Oliver, and other Founding Fathers of the United States. It is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Membership in the academy is achieved through a thorough petition, review, and election process. The academy's quarterly journal, ''Dædalus'', is published by MIT Press on behalf of the academy. The academy also conducts multidisciplinary public policy research. History The Academy was established by the Massachusetts legislature on May 4, 1780, charted in order "to cultivate every art and science which may tend to advance the interest, honor, dignity, and happiness of a free, independent, and virtuous people." The sixty-two incorporating fellows represented varying interests and high standing in the political, professional, and commercial s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
International Society Of Political Psychology
The International Society of Political Psychology (ISPP) is an interdisciplinary not-for-profit organization, representing all fields of enquiry involved with the exploration of relationships between both psychological and political processes and phenomena. Members include psychologists, political scientists, psychiatrists, historians, sociologists, economists, anthropologists, as well as journalists, government officials and others. The Society is international, with members from all regions of the world: the Americas, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The Central Office is located in North Carolina, USA. Throughout its history, the ISPP has offered encouragement to those who actively engaged in a wide spectrum of disciplinary approaches to political psychology. Members receive the Society's journal, '' Political Psychology'' and also access to the annual ''Advances in Political Psychology''; ''ISPPNews'', the Society's newsletter; reduced registration fees at ISPP's Ann ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
American Association For The Advancement Of Science
The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) is an American international non-profit organization with the stated goals of promoting cooperation among scientists, defending scientific freedom, encouraging scientific responsibility, and supporting scientific education and science outreach for the betterment of all humanity. It is the world's largest general scientific society, with over 120,000 members, and is the publisher of the well-known scientific journal ''Science''. History Creation The American Association for the Advancement of Science was created on September 20, 1848, at the Academy of Natural Sciences in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It was a reformation of the Association of American Geologists and Naturalists. The society chose William Charles Redfield as their first president because he had proposed the most comprehensive plans for the organization. According to the first constitution which was agreed to at the September 20 meeting, the goal ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
American Political Science Association
The American Political Science Association (APSA) is a professional association of political science students and scholars in the United States. Founded in 1903 in the Tilton Memorial Library (now Tilton Hall) of Tulane University in New Orleans, it publishes four academic journals: ''American Political Science Review'', ''Perspectives on Politics'', ''Journal of Political Science Education,'' and '' PS: Political Science & Politics''. APSA Organized Sections publish or are associated with 15 additional journals. APSA presidents serve one-year terms. The current president is John Ishiyama of the University of North Texas. Woodrow Wilson, who later became President of the United States, was APSA president in 1909. APSA's headquarters are at 1527 New Hampshire Avenue NW in Washington, D.C., in a historic building that was owned by Admiral George Remy, labor leader Samuel Gompers, the American War Mothers, and Harry Garfield, son of President James A. Garfield and president of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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