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Number Cruncher Politics
Number Cruncher Politics is a political analysis and polling consultancy and blog site launched in 2014. The site is non-partisan and focusses on UK opinion polling, psephology, and statistical analysis. It is perhaps best known for correctly predicting the polling failure at the 2015 general election. History On the eve the 2015 UK election, the site published a lengthy analysis of opinion polling accuracy by its founder Matt Singh, based on decades of polling and election data. The report suggested that, contrary to the close race suggested by opinion polls and forecasts, the Conservative Party would win by more than six percentage points and could win an overall majority. In the event, the Conservative lead in the popular vote was 6.6 points, giving the party an overall majority of 12 seats. After the publication of the broadcasters' exit poll, the post containing the analysis attracted sufficient traffic to crash the website. At the Scottish independence referendum, the s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Opinion Polling
An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election) is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster. History The first known example of an opinion poll was a tallies of voter preferences reported on Telegram Messenger to the 1824 presidential election, showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the United States Presidency. Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the whole country, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena. In 1916, ''The Literary Digest'' embarked on a national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Psephology
Psephology (; from Greek el, ψῆφος, psephos, pebble, label=none) or political analysis is a branch of political science, the "quantitative analysis of elections and balloting". As such, psephology attempts to explain elections using the scientific method. Psephology is related to political forecasting. Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 in the United Kingdom by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) after he was asked by his friend R. B. McCallum for a word to describe the study of elections; first written use in 1952. [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ''wikt:Statistik#German, Statistik'', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of statistical survey, surveys and experimental design, experiments.Dodge, Y. (2006) ''The Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms'', Oxford University Press. When census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey sample (statistics), samples. Representative sampling as ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
2015 United Kingdom General Election
The 2015 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 7 May 2015 to elect 650 members to the House of Commons. It was the first and only general election held at the end of a Parliament under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Local elections took place in most areas on the same day. Polls and commentators had predicted the outcome would be too close to call and would result in a second consecutive hung parliament whose composition would be either similar to or more complicated than the 2010 general election. Opinion polls were eventually proven to have underestimated the Conservative vote as the party, having governed in coalition with the Liberal Democrats since 2010, won 330 seats and 36.9% of the vote share, giving them a small overall majority of 12 seats (including Speaker John Bercow—ten seats without him) and their first outright win since 1992. It therefore won a mandate to govern alone with David Cameron continuing as Prime Minister. The Labour P ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The United Kingdom includes the island of Great Britain, the north-eastern part of the island of Ireland, and many smaller islands within the British Isles. Northern Ireland shares a land border with the Republic of Ireland; otherwise, the United Kingdom is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea, the English Channel, the Celtic Sea and the Irish Sea. The total area of the United Kingdom is , with an estimated 2020 population of more than 67 million people. The United Kingdom has evolved from a series of annexations, unions and separations of constituent countries over several hundred years. The Treaty of Union between the Kingdom of England (which included Wales, annexed in 1542) and the Kingdom of Scotland in 170 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Matt Singh
Matt Singh is an election and opinion polling analyst and founder of the website and polling company Number Cruncher Politics, based in London. Singh rose to prominence in mid-2015 for his analysis which correctly predicted the opinion polling failure and Conservative victory at the 2015 UK general election, and more recently has become noted as a commentator and pollster on UK politics. Singh's Number Cruncher Politics publishes articles on the state of UK public opinion, and carries out regular polls of UK party voting intention. It has also undertaken commissioned polling for a range of organisations, including on race relations for ITV's current affairs show '' Peston'', on internationalism for the campaign group Best for Britain, and on racism in Wales for ITV Cymru Wales. As well as accurately forecasting the result of the 2015 UK election, Singh also provided commentary on the Labour Party leadership contest in August 2015, dismissing suggestions that polls were oversta ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Conservative Party UK
The Conservative Party, officially the Conservative and Unionist Party and also known colloquially as the Tories, is one of the two main political parties in the United Kingdom, along with the Labour Party. It is the current governing party, having won the 2019 general election. It has been the primary governing party in Britain since 2010. The party is on the centre-right of the political spectrum, and encompasses various ideological factions including one-nation conservatives, Thatcherites, and traditionalist conservatives. The party currently has 356 Members of Parliament, 264 members of the House of Lords, 9 members of the London Assembly, 31 members of the Scottish Parliament, 16 members of the Welsh Parliament, 2 directly elected mayors, 30 police and crime commissioners, and around 6,683 local councillors. It holds the annual Conservative Party Conference. The Conservative Party was founded in 1834 from the Tory Party and was one of two dominant political pa ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
2014 Scottish Independence Referendum
A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom was held in Scotland on 18 September 2014. The referendum question was, "Should Scotland be an independent country?", which voters answered with "Yes" or "No". The "No" side won with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the January 1910 general election, which was held before the introduction of universal suffrage. The Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 set out the arrangements for the referendum and was passed by the Scottish Parliament in November 2013, following an agreement between the devolved Scottish government and the Government of the United Kingdom. The independence proposal required a simple majority to pass. All European Union (EU) or Commonwealth citizens residing in Scotland age 16 or over could vote, with some exceptions, which produced ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
FiveThirtyEight
''FiveThirtyEight'', sometimes rendered as ''538'', is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of ''The New York Times'' online and renamed ''FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus''. In July 2013, ESPN acquired ''FiveThirtyEight'', hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for ''ESPN.com''; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014. Since then, the ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company). During the pr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Psephology
Psephology (; from Greek el, ψῆφος, psephos, pebble, label=none) or political analysis is a branch of political science, the "quantitative analysis of elections and balloting". As such, psephology attempts to explain elections using the scientific method. Psephology is related to political forecasting. Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 in the United Kingdom by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) after he was asked by his friend R. B. McCallum for a word to describe the study of elections; first written use in 1952. [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Polling
Poll, polled, or polling may refer to: Figurative head counts * Poll, a formal election ** Election verification exit poll, a survey taken to verify election counts ** Polling, voting to make decisions or determine opinions ** Polling places or polling station, a.k.a. the polls, where voters cast their ballots in elections * Poll, a non-formal election: ** Opinion poll, a survey of public opinion ** Exit poll, a survey of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations ** Straw poll, an ad-hoc or unofficial vote ** Survey (human research) Agriculture * Poll (livestock), the top of an animal's head * Polled livestock, hornless livestock of normally horned species * Polling, livestock dehorning Arts, entertainment, and media * Poll (band), a Greek pop group of the 1970s * ''Poll'', the German title for the 2010 film ''The Poll Diaries'' Mathematics, science, and technology * poll (Unix), a Unix system call *POLL, DNA polymerase lambda * Polling (com ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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