Neyman Construction
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Neyman Construction
Neyman construction, named after Jerzy Neyman, is a frequentist method to construct an interval at a confidence level C, \, such that if we repeat the experiment many times the interval will contain the true value of some parameter a fraction C\, of the time. Theory Assume X_,X_,...X_ are random variables with joint pdf f(x_,x_,...x_ , \theta_,\theta_,...,\theta_), which depends on k unknown parameters. For convenience, let \Theta be the sample space defined by the n random variables and subsequently define a sample point in the sample space as X=(X_,X_,...X_) Neyman originally proposed defining two functions L(x) and U(x) such that for any sample point,X, *L(X)\leq U(X) \forall X\in\Theta * L and U are single valued and defined. Given an observation, X^', the probability that \theta_ lies between L(X^') and U(X^') is defined as P(L(X^')\leq\theta_\leq U(X^') , X^') with probability of 0 or 1. These calculated probabilities fail to draw meaningful inference about \theta_ sin ...
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Jerzy Neyman
Jerzy Neyman (April 16, 1894 – August 5, 1981; born Jerzy Spława-Neyman; ) was a Polish mathematician and statistician who spent the first part of his professional career at various institutions in Warsaw, Poland and then at University College London, and the second part at the University of California, Berkeley. Neyman first introduced the modern concept of a confidence interval into statistical hypothesis testing and co-revised Ronald Fisher's null hypothesis testing (in collaboration with Egon Pearson). Life and career He was born into a Polish family in Bendery, in the Bessarabia Governorate of the Russian Empire, the fourth of four children of Czesław Spława-Neyman and Kazimiera Lutosławska. His family was Roman Catholic and Neyman served as an altar boy during his early childhood. Later, Neyman would become an agnostic. Neyman's family descended from a long line of Polish nobles and military heroes. He graduated from the Kamieniec Podolski gubernial gymnasium for boys ...
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Frequentist
Frequentist inference is a type of statistical inference based in frequentist probability, which treats “probability” in equivalent terms to “frequency” and draws conclusions from sample-data by means of emphasizing the frequency or proportion of findings in the data. Frequentist-inference underlies frequentist statistics, in which the well-established methodologies of statistical hypothesis testing and confidence intervals are founded. History of frequentist statistics The history of frequentist statistics is more recent than its prevailing philosophical rival, Bayesian statistics. Frequentist statistics were largely developed in the early 20th century and have recently developed to become the dominant paradigm in inferential statistics, while Bayesian statistics were invented in the 19th century. Despite this dominance, there is no agreement as to whether frequentism is better than Bayesian statistics, with a vocal minority of professionals studying statistical in ...
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Confidence Level
In frequentist statistics, a confidence interval (CI) is a range of estimates for an unknown parameter. A confidence interval is computed at a designated ''confidence level''; the 95% confidence level is most common, but other levels, such as 90% or 99%, are sometimes used. The confidence level represents the long-run proportion of corresponding CIs that contain the true value of the parameter. For example, out of all intervals computed at the 95% level, 95% of them should contain the parameter's true value. Factors affecting the width of the CI include the sample size, the variability in the sample, and the confidence level. All else being the same, a larger sample produces a narrower confidence interval, greater variability in the sample produces a wider confidence interval, and a higher confidence level produces a wider confidence interval. Definition Let be a random sample from a probability distribution with statistical parameter , which is a quantity to be estimat ...
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Replication (statistics)
In engineering, science, and statistics, replication is the repetition of an experimental condition so that the variability associated with the phenomenon can be estimated. ASTM, in standard E1847, defines replication as "... the repetition of the set of all the treatment combinations to be compared in an experiment. Each of the repetitions is called a ''replicate''." Replication is not the same as repeated measurements of the same item: they are dealt with differently in statistical experimental design and data analysis. For proper sampling, a process or batch of products should be in reasonable statistical control; inherent random variation is present but variation due to assignable (special) causes is not. Evaluation or testing of a single item does not allow for item-to-item variation and may not represent the batch or process. Replication is needed to account for this variation among items and treatments. Example As an example, consider a continuous process which produces ...
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Coverage Probability
In statistics, the coverage probability is a technique for calculating a confidence interval which is the proportion of the time that the interval contains the true value of interest. For example, suppose our interest is in the mean number of months that people with a particular type of cancer remain in remission following successful treatment with chemotherapy. The confidence interval aims to contain the unknown mean remission duration with a given probability. This is the "confidence level" or "confidence coefficient" of the constructed interval which is effectively the "nominal coverage probability" of the procedure for constructing confidence intervals. The "nominal coverage probability" is often set at 0.95. The ''coverage probability'' is the actual probability that the interval contains the true mean remission duration in this example. If all assumptions used in deriving a confidence interval are met, the nominal coverage probability will equal the coverage probability (t ...
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Neyman Construction Confidence Intervals
Neyman is a surname. Notable people with the surname include: *Abraham Neyman (born 1949), Israeli mathematician *Benny Neyman (1951–2008), Dutch singer *Jerzy Neyman (1894–1981), Polish mathematician; Neyman construction and Neyman–Pearson lemma * Sergei Neyman (born 1967), Russian footballer *Yuri Neyman (born c. 1950), Russian-American cinematographer, educator and inventor {{Surname See also *Nieman (surname) Nieman is a Dutch and Low German surname that originated as a nickname for either an unknown or nameless person (''Niemand'' in Dutch and German) or a newcomer to a place (modern Dutch ''nieuw man'', cognate to English Newman and High German Neumann ... * Nijman * Nyman Surnames of Jewish origin ...
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Standard Error
The standard error (SE) of a statistic (usually an estimate of a parameter) is the standard deviation of its sampling distribution or an estimate of that standard deviation. If the statistic is the sample mean, it is called the standard error of the mean (SEM). The sampling distribution of a mean is generated by repeated sampling from the same population and recording of the sample means obtained. This forms a distribution of different means, and this distribution has its own mean and variance. Mathematically, the variance of the sampling mean distribution obtained is equal to the variance of the population divided by the sample size. This is because as the sample size increases, sample means cluster more closely around the population mean. Therefore, the relationship between the standard error of the mean and the standard deviation is such that, for a given sample size, the standard error of the mean equals the standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size. ...
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Sample Mean
The sample mean (or "empirical mean") and the sample covariance are statistics computed from a Sample (statistics), sample of data on one or more random variables. The sample mean is the average value (or mean, mean value) of a sample (statistics), sample of numbers taken from a larger Statistical population, population of numbers, where "population" indicates not number of people but the entirety of relevant data, whether collected or not. A sample of 40 companies' sales from the Fortune 500 might be used for convenience instead of looking at the population, all 500 companies' sales. The sample mean is used as an estimator for the population mean, the average value in the entire population, where the estimate is more likely to be close to the population mean if the sample is large and representative. The reliability of the sample mean is estimated using the standard error, which in turn is calculated using the variance of the sample. If the sample is random, the standard error fa ...
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Probability Interpretations
The word probability has been used in a variety of ways since it was first applied to the mathematical study of games of chance. Does probability measure the real, physical, tendency of something to occur, or is it a measure of how strongly one believes it will occur, or does it draw on both these elements? In answering such questions, mathematicians interpret the probability values of probability theory. There are two broad categories The taxonomy of probability interpretations given here is similar to that of the longer and more complete Interpretations of Probability article in the online Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. References to that article include a parenthetic section number where appropriate. A partial outline of that article: * Section 2: Criteria of adequacy for the interpretations of probability * Section 3: ** 3.1 Classical Probability ** 3.2 Logical Probability ** 3.3 Subjective Probability ** 3.4 Frequency Interpretations ** 3.5 Propensity Interpretations "T ...
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