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Metaculus (mite)
Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.The power of prediction markets in '' Nature'', published December 17th, 2018 retrieved March 16, 2019 Reward system Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users ...[...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Privately Held Company
A privately held company (or simply a private company) is a company whose shares and related rights or obligations are not offered for public subscription or publicly negotiated in the respective listed markets, but rather the company's stock is offered, owned, traded, exchanged privately, or Over-the-counter (finance), over-the-counter. In the case of a closed corporation, there are a relatively small number of shareholders or company members. Related terms are closely-held corporation, unquoted company, and unlisted company. Though less visible than their public company, publicly traded counterparts, private companies have major importance in the world's economy. In 2008, the 441 list of largest private non-governmental companies by revenue, largest private companies in the United States accounted for ($1.8 trillion) in revenues and employed 6.2 million people, according to ''Forbes''. In 2005, using a substantially smaller pool size (22.7%) for comparison, the 339 companies on ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Scoring Rule
In decision theory, a scoring rule provides a summary measure for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions or forecasts. It is applicable to tasks in which predictions assign probabilities to events, i.e. one issues a probability distribution F as prediction. This includes probabilistic classification of a set of mutually exclusive outcomes or classes. On the other side, a scoring function provides a summary measure for the evaluation of point predictions, i.e. one predicts a property or functional T(F), like the expectation or the median. Scoring rules and scoring functions can be thought of as "cost function" or " loss function". They are evaluated as empirical mean of a given sample, simply called score. Scores of different predictions or models can then be compared to conclude which model is best. If a cost is levied in proportion to a proper scoring rule, the minimal expected cost corresponds to reporting the true set of probabilities. Proper scoring rules are used i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Predictive Analytics
Predictive analytics encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modeling, and machine learning that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events. In business, predictive models exploit patterns found in historical and transactional data to identify risks and opportunities. Models capture relationships among many factors to allow assessment of risk or potential associated with a particular set of conditions, guiding decision-making for candidate transactions. The defining functional effect of these technical approaches is that predictive analytics provides a predictive score (probability) for each individual (customer, employee, healthcare patient, product SKU, vehicle, component, machine, or other organizational unit) in order to determine, inform, or influence organizational processes that pertain across large numbers of individuals, such as in marketing, credit risk assessment, fraud detecti ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Futarchy
Futarchy is a form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which elected officials define measures of national wellbeing, and prediction markets are used to determine which policies will have the most positive effect. It was named by ''The New York Times'' as a buzzword of 2008. The idea of futarchy was later introduced in the context of blockchains and The DAO (organization), the DAO bringing it closer to an actual implementation. Criticisms Economist Tyler Cowen said I would bet against the future of futarchy, or its likelihood of succeeding were it in place. Robin says "vote on values, bet on beliefs", but I don't think values and beliefs can be so easily separated. References External links * Forms of government {{constitutional-law-stub ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Prediction Market
Prediction markets (also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives) are open markets where specific outcomes can be predicted using financial incentives. Essentially, they are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the market prices of the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
PredictIt
PredictIt is a New Zealand-based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington with support from Aristotle, Inc. The company's office is located in Washington, D.C. The market was initially launched on 3 November 2014. History PredictIt was first launched on 3 November 2014. By March 2016, the website had approximately 29,000 active traders. The nonprofit educational project of the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, "had to work around federal laws that prohibit online gambling and govern commodity futures trading." During the 2016 United States elections, PredictIt, along with other prediction market websites, received attention from various media outlets. Trading format PredictIt uses a continuous double auction to sell shares for each event in its markets, meaning that for every person who predicts that an event will take place, there must be another pers ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bankruptcy Of FTX
The bankruptcy of FTX is the ongoing liquidation of Bahamas-based cryptocurrency exchange FTX, beginning in November 2022. The collapse of FTX, caused by a liquidity crisis of the company's token, FTT, served as the impetus for its bankruptcy. Prior to its collapse, FTX was the third-largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume and had over one million users. On 2 November 2022, ''CoinDesk'' published an article stating that Alameda Research, a trading firm affiliated with FTX and owned by FTX chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried, held a significant amount of FTX's exchange token, FTT. Following the allegations, Binance—a competing cryptocurrency exchange and a prior investor in FTX—announced it would sell its FTT, leading the market price of the token to crash. The move also triggered a spike in withdrawals from FTX, causing the exchange to freeze withdrawals and creating a liquidity crisis. On 8 November, Binance signed an offer to acquire FTX, but then withdrew the offer. On 11 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Open Philanthropy (organization)
Open Philanthropy is a research and grantmaking foundation that makes grants based on the doctrine of effective altruism. It was founded as a partnership between GiveWell and Good Ventures. Its current co-chief executive officers are Holden Karnofsky and Alexander Berger, and its main funders are Cari Tuna and Dustin Moskovitz. Dustin says that their wealth, worth $11 billion, is "pooled up around us right now, but it belongs to the world. We intend not to have much when we die." History Dustin Moskovitz made an $11 billion fortune through co-founding Facebook, and later Asana. He and his wife Cari Tuna were inspired by Peter Singer's ''The Life You Can Save'', and became the youngest couple to sign Bill Gates and Warren Buffett’s Giving Pledge, promising to give away most of their money. Tuna quit her journalist job at ''The Wall Street Journal'' to do philanthropy full-time, and the couple started the Good Ventures foundation in 2011. Good Ventures partnered with GiveW ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Effective Altruism
Effective altruism is a philosophical and social movement that advocates "using evidence and reason to figure out how to benefit others as much as possible, and taking action on that basis". People who pursue the goals of effective altruism, called , often choose careers based on the amount of good that the career achieves while donating to charities based on maximising impact. The movement developed during the 2000s, and the name was coined in 2011. Prominent philosophers influential to the movement include Peter Singer, Toby Ord, and William MacAskill. Several books and many articles about the movement have since been published, and the Effective Altruism Global conference has been held since 2013. As of 2022, several billion dollars have been committed to effective altruist causes. Popular cause priorities within effective altruism include global health and development, social inequality, animal welfare, and risks to the survival of humanity over the long-term future. Eff ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Brier Score
The Brier Score is a Scoring rule#StrictlyProperScoringRules, ''strictly proper score function'' or ''strictly proper scoring rule'' that measures the accuracy of probabilistic classification, probabilistic predictions. For unidimensional predictions, it is strictly equivalent to the mean squared error as applied to predicted probabilities. The Brier score is applicable to tasks in which predictions must assign probabilities to a set of mutually exclusive discrete outcomes or classes. The set of possible outcomes can be either binary or categorical in nature, and the probabilities assigned to this set of outcomes must sum to one (where each individual probability is in the range of 0 to 1). It was proposed by Glenn W. Brier in 1950. The Brier score can be thought of as a Loss function, cost function. More precisely, across all items i\in in a set of ''N'' predictions, the Brier score measures the mean squared difference between: * The predicted probability assigned to the possible ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Santa Cruz, California
Santa Cruz (Spanish for "Holy Cross") is the county seat and largest city of Santa Cruz County, in Northern California. As of the 2020 census, the city population was 62,956. Situated on the northern edge of Monterey Bay, Santa Cruz is a popular tourist destination, owing to its beaches, surf culture, and historic landmarks. Santa Cruz was founded by the Spanish in 1791, when Fermín de Lasuén established Mission Santa Cruz. Soon after, a settlement grew up near the mission called Branciforte, which came to be known across Alta California for its lawlessness. With the Mexican secularization of the Californian missions in 1833, the former mission was divided and granted as rancho grants. Following the American Conquest of California, Santa Cruz eventually incorporated as a city in 1866. The creation of the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk in 1907 solidified the city's status as a seaside resort community, while the establishment of the University of California, Santa Cruz in 1 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identified in an outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. Attempts to contain it there failed, allowing the virus to spread to other areas of Asia and later worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on 30 January 2020, and a pandemic on 11 March 2020. As of , the pandemic had caused more than cases and confirmed deaths, making it one of the deadliest in history. COVID-19 symptoms range from undetectable to deadly, but most commonly include fever, dry cough, and fatigue. Severe illness is more likely in elderly patients and those with certain underlying medical conditions. COVID-19 transmits when people breathe in air contaminated by droplets and ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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