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Mean Squared Prediction Error
In statistics the mean squared prediction error or mean squared error of the predictions of a smoothing or curve fitting procedure is the expected value of the squared difference between the fitted values implied by the predictive function \widehat and the values of the (unobservable) function ''g''. It is an inverse measure of the explanatory power of \widehat, and can be used in the process of cross-validation of an estimated model. If the smoothing or fitting procedure has projection matrix (i.e., hat matrix) ''L'', which maps the observed values vector y to predicted values vector \hat via \hat=Ly, then :\operatorname(L)=\operatorname\left left( g(x_i)-\widehat(x_i)\right)^2\right The MSPE can be decomposed into two terms: the mean of squared biases of the fitted values and the mean of variances of the fitted values: :n\cdot\operatorname(L)=\sum_^n\left(\operatorname\left widehat(x_i)\rightg(x_i)\right)^2+\sum_^n\operatorname\left widehat(x_i)\right Knowledge of ''g'' is r ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ''wikt:Statistik#German, Statistik'', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of statistical survey, surveys and experimental design, experiments.Dodge, Y. (2006) ''The Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms'', Oxford University Press. When census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey sample (statistics), samples. Representative sampling as ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Smoothing
In statistics and image processing, to smooth a data set is to create an approximating function (mathematics), function that attempts to capture important patterns in the data, while leaving out noise or other fine-scale structures/rapid phenomena. In smoothing, the data points of a signal are modified so individual points higher than the adjacent points (presumably because of noise) are reduced, and points that are lower than the adjacent points are increased leading to a smoother signal. Smoothing may be used in two important ways that can aid in data analysis (1) by being able to extract more information from the data as long as the assumption of smoothing is reasonable and (2) by being able to provide analyses that are both flexible and robust. Many different algorithms are used in smoothing. Smoothing may be distinguished from the related and partially overlapping concept of curve fitting in the following ways: * curve fitting often involves the use of an explicit function for ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Curve Fitting
Curve fitting is the process of constructing a curve, or mathematical function, that has the best fit to a series of data points, possibly subject to constraints. Curve fitting can involve either interpolation, where an exact fit to the data is required, or smoothing, in which a "smooth" function is constructed that approximately fits the data. A related topic is regression analysis, which focuses more on questions of statistical inference such as how much uncertainty is present in a curve that is fit to data observed with random errors. Fitted curves can be used as an aid for data visualization, to infer values of a function where no data are available, and to summarize the relationships among two or more variables. Extrapolation refers to the use of a fitted curve beyond the range of the observed data, and is subject to a degree of uncertainty since it may reflect the method used to construct the curve as much as it reflects the observed data. For linear-algebraic analysis o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cross-validation (statistics)
Cross-validation, sometimes called rotation estimation or out-of-sample testing, is any of various similar model validation techniques for assessing how the results of a statistical analysis will generalize to an independent data set. Cross-validation is a resampling method that uses different portions of the data to test and train a model on different iterations. It is mainly used in settings where the goal is prediction, and one wants to estimate how accurately a predictive model will perform in practice. In a prediction problem, a model is usually given a dataset of ''known data'' on which training is run (''training dataset''), and a dataset of ''unknown data'' (or ''first seen'' data) against which the model is tested (called the validation dataset or ''testing set''). The goal of cross-validation is to test the model's ability to predict new data that was not used in estimating it, in order to flag problems like overfitting or selection bias and to give an insight o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Projection Matrix
In statistics, the projection matrix (\mathbf), sometimes also called the influence matrix or hat matrix (\mathbf), maps the vector of response values (dependent variable values) to the vector of fitted values (or predicted values). It describes the influence each response value has on each fitted value. The diagonal elements of the projection matrix are the leverages, which describe the influence each response value has on the fitted value for that same observation. Definition If the vector of response values is denoted by \mathbf and the vector of fitted values by \mathbf, :\mathbf = \mathbf \mathbf. As \mathbf is usually pronounced "y-hat", the projection matrix \mathbf is also named ''hat matrix'' as it "puts a hat on \mathbf". The element in the ''i''th row and ''j''th column of \mathbf is equal to the covariance between the ''j''th response value and the ''i''th fitted value, divided by the variance of the former: :p_ = \frac Application for residuals The formula for the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sample (statistics)
In statistics, quality assurance, and survey methodology, sampling is the selection of a subset (a statistical sample) of individuals from within a statistical population to estimate characteristics of the whole population. Statisticians attempt to collect samples that are representative of the population in question. Sampling has lower costs and faster data collection than measuring the entire population and can provide insights in cases where it is infeasible to measure an entire population. Each observation measures one or more properties (such as weight, location, colour or mass) of independent objects or individuals. In survey sampling, weights can be applied to the data to adjust for the sample design, particularly in stratified sampling. Results from probability theory and statistical theory are employed to guide the practice. In business and medical research, sampling is widely used for gathering information about a population. Acceptance sampling is used to determine ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Data Analyst
Data analysis is a process of inspecting, cleansing, transforming, and modeling data with the goal of discovering useful information, informing conclusions, and supporting decision-making. Data analysis has multiple facets and approaches, encompassing diverse techniques under a variety of names, and is used in different business, science, and social science domains. In today's business world, data analysis plays a role in making decisions more scientific and helping businesses operate more effectively. Data mining is a particular data analysis technique that focuses on statistical modeling and knowledge discovery for predictive rather than purely descriptive purposes, while business intelligence covers data analysis that relies heavily on aggregation, focusing mainly on business information. In statistical applications, data analysis can be divided into descriptive statistics, exploratory data analysis (EDA), and confirmatory data analysis (CDA). EDA focuses on discovering new ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Regression Analysis
In statistical modeling, regression analysis is a set of statistical processes for estimating the relationships between a dependent variable (often called the 'outcome' or 'response' variable, or a 'label' in machine learning parlance) and one or more independent variables (often called 'predictors', 'covariates', 'explanatory variables' or 'features'). The most common form of regression analysis is linear regression, in which one finds the line (or a more complex linear combination) that most closely fits the data according to a specific mathematical criterion. For example, the method of ordinary least squares computes the unique line (or hyperplane) that minimizes the sum of squared differences between the true data and that line (or hyperplane). For specific mathematical reasons (see linear regression), this allows the researcher to estimate the conditional expectation (or population average value) of the dependent variable when the independent variables take on a given ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistical Population
In statistics, a population is a set of similar items or events which is of interest for some question or experiment. A statistical population can be a group of existing objects (e.g. the set of all stars within the Milky Way galaxy) or a hypothetical and potentially infinite group of objects conceived as a generalization from experience (e.g. the set of all possible hands in a game of poker). A common aim of statistical analysis is to produce information about some chosen population. In statistical inference, a subset of the population (a statistical ''sample'') is chosen to represent the population in a statistical analysis. Moreover, the statistical sample must be unbiased and accurately model the population (every unit of the population has an equal chance of selection). The ratio of the size of this statistical sample to the size of the population is called a ''sampling fraction''. It is then possible to estimate the ''population parameters'' using the appropriate sample s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Colin Mallows
Colin Lingwood Mallows (born 10 September 1930, Great Sampford, Essex) is an English statistician, who has worked in the United States since 1960. He is known for Mallows's ''Cp'', a regression model diagnostic procedure, widely used in regression analysis and the Fowlkes–Mallows index, a popular clustering validation criterion. Education and career Mallows received in 1951 his bachelor's degree and in 1953 his Ph.D. (at the age of 22) from University College London (UCL) under Florence Nightingale David and Norman Lloyd Johnson with thesis ''Some problems connected with distribution problems.'' Mallows joined the UCL faculty and taught there from 1955 to 1959 with a sabbatical year at Princeton University in the academic year 1957–1958. He worked for Bell Labs in Murray Hill, New Jersey from 1960 to 1995 and then for AT&T Labs in Florham Park, New Jersey from 1995 to 2000, when he retired. Since 2000, Mallows has been a consultant for Avaya Labs. He is the author or coaut ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mallows's Cp
In statistics, Mallows's ''Cp'', named for Colin Lingwood Mallows, is used to assess the fit of a regression model that has been estimated using ordinary least squares. It is applied in the context of model selection, where a number of predictor variables are available for predicting some outcome, and the goal is to find the best model involving a subset of these predictors. A small value of Cp means that the model is relatively precise. Mallows's ''Cp'' has been shown to be equivalent to Akaike information criterion in the special case of Gaussian linear regression. Definition and properties Mallows's ''Cp'' addresses the issue of overfitting, in which model selection statistics such as the residual sum of squares always get smaller as more variables are added to a model. Thus, if we aim to select the model giving the smallest residual sum of squares, the model including all variables would always be selected. Instead, the ''Cp'' statistic calculated on a sample of data es ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mean Squared Error
In statistics, the mean squared error (MSE) or mean squared deviation (MSD) of an estimator (of a procedure for estimating an unobserved quantity) measures the average of the squares of the errors—that is, the average squared difference between the estimated values and the actual value. MSE is a risk function, corresponding to the expected value of the squared error loss. The fact that MSE is almost always strictly positive (and not zero) is because of randomness or because the estimator does not account for information that could produce a more accurate estimate. In machine learning, specifically empirical risk minimization, MSE may refer to the ''empirical'' risk (the average loss on an observed data set), as an estimate of the true MSE (the true risk: the average loss on the actual population distribution). The MSE is a measure of the quality of an estimator. As it is derived from the square of Euclidean distance, it is always a positive value that decreases as the error a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
