Extrapolated Runs
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Extrapolated Runs
Extrapolated Runs (XR) is a baseball statistic invented by sabermetrician Jim Furtado to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team. XR measures essentially the same thing as Bill James' Runs Created, but it is a linear weights formula that assigns a run value to each event, rather than a multiplicative formula like James' creation. Purpose and formulae According to Furtado, Extrapolated Runs was inspired by Paul Johnson's Estimated Runs Produced (ERP) formula, which was published in James' 1985 ''Baseball Abstract''. Furtado found that Johnson's method, when written a different way, was essentially a linear weights formula (something James apparently did not recognize at the time, given his very public disdain for linear run estimators). ERP was almost as accurate as RC at measuring team runs, it did not succumb to RC's infamous problems at the individual level, and its values stacked up well when compared to Pete Palmer's linear weights formula, even though the t ...
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Baseball Statistics
Baseball statistics play an important role in evaluating the progress of a player or team. Since the flow of a baseball game has natural breaks to it, and normally players act individually rather than performing in clusters, the sport lends itself to easy record-keeping and statistics. Statistics have been kept for professional baseball since the creation of the National League and American League, now part of Major League Baseball. Many statistics are also available from outside Major League Baseball, from leagues such as the National Association of Professional Base Ball Players and the Negro leagues, although the consistency of whether these records were kept, of the standards with respect to which they were calculated, and of their accuracy has varied. Development The practice of keeping records of player achievements was started in the 19th century by Henry Chadwick. Based on his experience with the sport of cricket, Chadwick devised the predecessors to modern-day statist ...
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Sabermetrics
Sabermetrics, or originally SABRmetrics, is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. Sabermetricians collect and summarize the relevant data from this in-game activity to answer specific questions. The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research, founded in 1971. The term "sabermetrics" was coined by Bill James, who is one of its pioneers and is often considered its most prominent advocate and public face. Early history Henry Chadwick, a sportswriter in New York, developed the box score in 1858. This was the first way statisticians were able to describe the sport of baseball by numerically tracking various aspects of game play. The creation of the box score has given baseball statisticians a summary of the individual and team performances for a given game. Sabermetrics research began in the middle of the 20th century with the writings of Earnshaw Cook, one of the earl ...
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Jim Furtado
Baseball Think Factory, abbreviated as BTF or BBTF, is a sabermetrically-oriented baseball web site that features daily news stories in baseball, with original content contributed by SABR members such as Dan Szymborski. The site was previously branded as ''Baseball Primer'', and was created in 2001 by the founders of Baseball-Reference. Contributors who have gone on to work for Major League Baseball front offices include Voros McCracken, Carlos Gomez, and Tom Tango. Bill James' ''Baseball Abstract'' books published in the 1980s are widely considered to be the modern predecessor to websites using sabermetrics such as ''baseballthinkfactory'' and baseballprospectus. History The site was founded in 2001 by Jim Furtado and Sean Forman of Baseball-Reference under the name "Baseball Primer," with a matching URL of (http://www.baseballprimer.com/). The site's emphasis on sabermetric baseball analysis attracted members of the rec.sport.baseball Usenet groups, and later drew readers of ...
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Bill James
George William James (born October 5, 1949) is an American baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. His approach, which he termed sabermetrics in reference to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), scientifically analyzes and studies baseball, often through the use of statistical data, in an attempt to determine why teams win and lose. In 2006, ''Time'' named him in the ''Time'' 100 as one of the most influential people in the world. In 2003, James was hired as senior advisor on Baseball Operations for the Boston Red Sox and worked for the team for 17 years during which they won four World Series championships. Early life James was born in Holton, Kansas; his mother died in 1954 when he was five. His father was a janitor and a handyman. After four years at the University of Kansas (KU) residing at Stephenson Scholarship H ...
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Runs Created
Runs created (RC) is a baseball statistic invented by Bill James to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to their team. Purpose James explains in his book, ''The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract'', why he believes runs created is an essential thing to measure:With regard to an offensive player, the first key question is how many ''runs'' have resulted from what he has done with the bat and on the basepaths. Willie McCovey hit .270 in his career, with 353 doubles, 46 triples, 521 home runs and 1,345 walks -- but his job was not to hit doubles, nor to hit singles, nor to hit triples, nor to draw walks or even hit home runs, but rather to put runs on the scoreboard. How many runs resulted from all of these things? Runs created attempts to answer this bedrock question. The conceptual framework of the "runs created" stat is: RC = \frac where *A = On-base factor *B = Advancement factor *C = Opportunity factor Formula Basic runs created In the most basic runs cre ...
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Linear Weights
In statistics, linear regression is a linear approach for modelling the relationship between a scalar response and one or more explanatory variables (also known as dependent and independent variables). The case of one explanatory variable is called ''simple linear regression''; for more than one, the process is called multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, where multiple correlated dependent variables are predicted, rather than a single scalar variable. In linear regression, the relationships are modeled using linear predictor functions whose unknown model parameters are estimated from the data. Such models are called linear models. Most commonly, the conditional mean of the response given the values of the explanatory variables (or predictors) is assumed to be an affine function of those values; less commonly, the conditional median or some other quantile is used. Like all forms of regression analysis, linear regression focuses on t ...
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Runs Created
Runs created (RC) is a baseball statistic invented by Bill James to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to their team. Purpose James explains in his book, ''The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract'', why he believes runs created is an essential thing to measure:With regard to an offensive player, the first key question is how many ''runs'' have resulted from what he has done with the bat and on the basepaths. Willie McCovey hit .270 in his career, with 353 doubles, 46 triples, 521 home runs and 1,345 walks -- but his job was not to hit doubles, nor to hit singles, nor to hit triples, nor to draw walks or even hit home runs, but rather to put runs on the scoreboard. How many runs resulted from all of these things? Runs created attempts to answer this bedrock question. The conceptual framework of the "runs created" stat is: RC = \frac where *A = On-base factor *B = Advancement factor *C = Opportunity factor Formula Basic runs created In the most basic runs cre ...
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Pete Palmer
Pete Palmer (born January 30, 1938) is an American sports statistician and encyclopedia editor. He is a major contributor to the applied mathematical field referred to as sabermetrics. Along with the Bill James ''Baseball Abstracts'', Palmer's book '' The Hidden Game of Baseball'' is often referred to as providing the foundation upon which the field of sabermetrics was built. Baseball work Palmer began his career as a baseball analyst when he worked for the Raytheon Corporation as a radar systems engineer. At night, after his co-workers had left for the day, Palmer used the company's (at the time) cutting-edge computers to run advanced simulations analyzing historical baseball statistics. In 1982, he gained notoriety when he recognized a scorekeeper's error which counted a 1910 Detroit Tigers box score twice, crediting Ty Cobb with an extra two hits and three at-bats. That year Cobb was declared the batting champion, despite an unsuccessful effort by the St. Louis Browns to ...
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Major League Baseball
Major League Baseball (MLB) is a professional baseball organization and the oldest major professional sports league in the world. MLB is composed of 30 total teams, divided equally between the National League (NL) and the American League (AL), with 29 in the United States and 1 in Canada. The NL and AL were formed in 1876 and 1901, respectively. Beginning in 1903, the two leagues signed the National Agreement and cooperated but remained legally separate entities until 2000, when they merged into a single organization led by the Commissioner of Baseball. MLB is headquartered in Midtown Manhattan. It is also included as one of the major professional sports leagues in the United States and Canada. Baseball's first all-professional team, the Cincinnati Red Stockings, was founded in 1869. Before that, some teams had secretly paid certain players. The first few decades of professional baseball were characterized by rivalries between leagues and by players who often jumped from one te ...
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On-base Percentage
In baseball statistics, on-base percentage (OBP) measures how frequently a batter reaches base. An official Major League Baseball (MLB) statistic since 1984, it is sometimes referred to as on-base average (OBA), as it is rarely presented as a true percentage. Generally defined as "how frequently a batter reaches base per plate appearance", OBP is specifically calculated as the ratio of a batter's times on base (the sum of hits, bases on balls, and times hit by pitch) to the sum of at bats, bases on balls, hit by pitch, and sacrifice flies. OBP does not credit the batter for reaching base on fielding errors, fielder's choice, uncaught third strikes, fielder's obstruction, or catcher's interference. OBP is added to slugging average (SLG) to determine on-base plus slugging (OPS). The OBP of all batters faced by one pitcher or team is referred to as "on-base against". On-base percentage is calculable for professional teams dating back to the first year of National Associ ...
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Slugging Average
In baseball statistics, slugging percentage (SLG) is a measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats, through the following formula, where ''AB'' is the number of at bats for a given player, and ''1B'', ''2B'', ''3B'', and ''HR'' are the number of singles, doubles, triples, and home runs, respectively: : \mathrm = \frac Unlike batting average, slugging percentage gives more weight to extra-base hits such as doubles and home runs, relative to singles. Plate appearances resulting in walks, hit-by-pitches, catcher's interference, and sacrifice bunts or flies are specifically excluded from this calculation, as such an appearance is not counted as an at bat (these are not factored into batting average either). The name is a misnomer, as the statistic is not a percentage but an average of how many bases a player achieves per at bat. It is a scale of measure whose computed value is a number from 0 to 4. This might not be readi ...
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