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Runs created (RC) is a
baseball statistic Baseball statistics play an important role in evaluating the progress of a player or team. Since the flow of a baseball game has natural breaks to it, and normally players act individually rather than performing in clusters, the sport lends itsel ...
invented by
Bill James George William James (born October 5, 1949) is an American baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. ...
to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to their team.


Purpose

James explains in his book, ''
The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract ''The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract'' is a reference book written by Bill James featuring an overview of professional baseball decade by decade, along with rankings of the top 100 players at each position. The original edition was publi ...
'', why he believes runs created is an essential thing to measure:
With regard to an offensive player, the first key question is how many ''runs'' have resulted from what he has done with the bat and on the basepaths.
Willie McCovey Willie Lee McCovey (January 10, 1938 – October 31, 2018), nicknamed "Stretch", "Mac" and "Willie Mac", was an American professional baseball player. He played in Major League Baseball as a first baseman from 1959 to 1980, most notably as a mem ...
hit .270 in his career, with 353 doubles, 46 triples, 521 home runs and 1,345 walks -- but his job was not to hit doubles, nor to hit singles, nor to hit triples, nor to draw walks or even hit home runs, but rather to put runs on the scoreboard. How many runs resulted from all of these things?
Runs created attempts to answer this bedrock question. The conceptual framework of the "runs created" stat is: RC = \frac where *A = On-base factor *B = Advancement factor *C = Opportunity factor


Formula


Basic runs created

In the most basic runs created formula: RC = \frac where H is hits, BB is
base on balls A base on balls (BB), also known as a walk, occurs in baseball when a batter receives four pitches that the umpire calls '' balls'', and is in turn awarded first base without the possibility of being called out. The base on balls is defined in Se ...
, TB is
total bases In baseball statistics, total bases is the number of bases a player gains with hits. It is a weighted sum with values of 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run. For example, three singles is three total bases, while ...
and AB is
at-bats In baseball, an at bat (AB) or time at bat is a batter's turn batting against a pitcher. An at bat is different from a plate appearance. A batter is credited with a plate appearance regardless of what happens during their turn at bat, but a batt ...
. This can also be expressed as RC = OBP \times SLG \times AB RC = OBP \times TB where OBP is
on-base percentage In baseball statistics, on-base percentage (OBP) measures how frequently a batter reaches base. An official Major League Baseball (MLB) statistic since 1984, it is sometimes referred to as on-base average (OBA), as it is rarely presented as a ...
, SLG is
slugging average In baseball statistics, slugging percentage (SLG) is a measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats, through the following formula, where ''AB'' is the number of at bats for a given player, a ...
, AB is
at-bats In baseball, an at bat (AB) or time at bat is a batter's turn batting against a pitcher. An at bat is different from a plate appearance. A batter is credited with a plate appearance regardless of what happens during their turn at bat, but a batt ...
and TB is
total bases In baseball statistics, total bases is the number of bases a player gains with hits. It is a weighted sum with values of 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run. For example, three singles is three total bases, while ...
, however it is worth noting that OBP includes the hit-by-pitch while the previous RC formula does not.


"Stolen base" version of runs created

This formula expands on the basic formula by accounting for a player's basestealing ability. RC = \frac where H is hits, BB is
base on balls A base on balls (BB), also known as a walk, occurs in baseball when a batter receives four pitches that the umpire calls '' balls'', and is in turn awarded first base without the possibility of being called out. The base on balls is defined in Se ...
, CS is
caught stealing In baseball, a runner is charged, and the fielders involved are credited, with a time caught stealing when the runner attempts to advance or lead off from one base to another without the ball being batted and then is tagged out by a fielder whil ...
, TB is
total bases In baseball statistics, total bases is the number of bases a player gains with hits. It is a weighted sum with values of 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run. For example, three singles is three total bases, while ...
, SB is
stolen base In baseball, a stolen base occurs when a runner advances to a base to which they are not entitled and the official scorer rules that the advance should be credited to the action of the runner. The umpires determine whether the runner is safe or ...
s, and AB is
at bat In baseball, an at bat (AB) or time at bat is a batter's turn batting against a pitcher. An at bat is different from a plate appearance. A batter is credited with a plate appearance regardless of what happens during their turn at bat, but a batt ...
s.


"Technical" version of runs created

This formula accounts for all basic, easily available offensive statistics. RC = \frac where H is hits, BB is
base on balls A base on balls (BB), also known as a walk, occurs in baseball when a batter receives four pitches that the umpire calls '' balls'', and is in turn awarded first base without the possibility of being called out. The base on balls is defined in Se ...
, CS is
caught stealing In baseball, a runner is charged, and the fielders involved are credited, with a time caught stealing when the runner attempts to advance or lead off from one base to another without the ball being batted and then is tagged out by a fielder whil ...
, HBP is
hit by pitch In baseball, hit by pitch (HBP) is an event in which a batter or his clothing or equipment (other than his bat) is struck directly by a pitch from the pitcher; the batter is called a hit batsman (HB). A hit batsman is awarded first base, provided ...
, GIDP is grounded into double play, TB is
total bases In baseball statistics, total bases is the number of bases a player gains with hits. It is a weighted sum with values of 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run. For example, three singles is three total bases, while ...
, IBB is
intentional base on balls In baseball, an intentional base on balls, usually referred to as an intentional walk and denoted in baseball scorekeeping by ''IBB'', is a walk issued to a batter by a pitcher with the intent of removing the batter's opportunity to swing at the ...
, SH is
sacrifice hit In baseball, a sacrifice bunt (also called a sacrifice hit) is a batter's act of deliberately bunting the ball, before there are two outs, in a manner that allows a baserunner to advance to another base. The batter is almost always put out, and ...
, SF is
sacrifice fly In baseball, a sacrifice fly (sometimes abbreviated to sac fly) is defined by Rule 9.08(d): "Score a sacrifice fly when, before two are out, the batter hits a ball in flight handled by an outfielder or an infielder running in the outfield in fair o ...
, SB is
stolen base In baseball, a stolen base occurs when a runner advances to a base to which they are not entitled and the official scorer rules that the advance should be credited to the action of the runner. The umpires determine whether the runner is safe or ...
, and AB is
at bat In baseball, an at bat (AB) or time at bat is a batter's turn batting against a pitcher. An at bat is different from a plate appearance. A batter is credited with a plate appearance regardless of what happens during their turn at bat, but a batt ...
s.


2002 version of runs created

Earlier versions of runs created overestimated the number of runs created by players with extremely high A and B factors (on-base and slugging), such as
Babe Ruth George Herman "Babe" Ruth Jr. (February 6, 1895 – August 16, 1948) was an American professional baseball player whose career in Major League Baseball (MLB) spanned 22 seasons, from 1914 through 1935. Nicknamed "the Bambino" and "the Su ...
,
Ted Williams Theodore Samuel Williams (August 30, 1918 – July 5, 2002) was an American professional baseball player and manager. He played his entire 19-year Major League Baseball (MLB) career, primarily as a left fielder, for the Boston Red Sox from 1939 ...
and
Barry Bonds Barry Lamar Bonds (born July 24, 1964) is an American former professional baseball left fielder who played 22 seasons in Major League Baseball (MLB). Bonds was a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates from 1986 to 1992 and the San Francisco Giants f ...
. This is because these formulas placed a player in an offensive context of players equal to himself; it is as if the player is assumed to be on base for himself when he hits home runs. Of course, this is impossible, and in reality, a great player is interacting with offensive players whose contributions are inferior to his. The 2002 version corrects this by placing the player in the context of his real-life team. This 2002 version also takes into account performance in "clutch" situations. :A: H + BB - CS + HBP - GIDP :B: (1.125 \times \mathit) + (1.69 \times \mathit) + (3.02 \times \mathit) + (3.73 \times HR) + .29 \times (BB-IBB+HBP) + .492 \times (SH + SF + SB) - (.04 \times K) :C: AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF where K is
strikeout In baseball or softball, a strikeout (or strike-out) occurs when a batter accumulates three strikes during a time at bat. It usually means that the batter is out. A strikeout is a statistic recorded for both pitchers and batters, and is deno ...
. The initial individual runs created estimate is then: RC = \left ( \frac \right ) - .9C If situational hitting information is available, the following should be added to the above total: H_ - (AB_ \times BA) + HR_ - \frac where RISP is
runners in scoring position In the sport of baseball, a baserunner is said to be in scoring position when they are on second or third base. The distinction between being on first base and second or third base is that a runner on first can usually only score if the batter h ...
, BA is
batting average Batting average is a statistic in cricket, baseball, and softball that measures the performance of batters. The development of the baseball statistic was influenced by the cricket statistic. Cricket In cricket, a player's batting average is ...
, HR is
home run In baseball, a home run (abbreviated HR) is scored when the ball is hit in such a way that the batter is able to circle the bases and reach home plate safely in one play without any errors being committed by the defensive team. A home run i ...
, and ROB is runners on base. The subscripts indicate the required condition for the formula. For example, H_ means "hits while runners are in scoring position." This is then figured for every member of the team, and an estimate of total team runs scored is added up. The actual total of team runs scored is then divided by the estimated total team runs scored, yielding a ratio of real to estimated team runs scored. The above individual runs created estimate is then multiplied by this ratio, to yield a runs created estimate for the individual.


Other expressions of runs created


Weighted runs created plus

Weighted runs created plus (wRC+) takes runs created and adjusts it to account for ballpark factors and the era a player played in.


Runs created as a rate stat

The same information provided by runs created can be expressed as a rate stat, rather than a raw number of runs contributed. This is usually expressed as runs created per some number of outs, e.g. \frac (27 being the number of
outs In baseball, an out occurs when the umpire rules a batter or baserunner out. When a batter or runner is out, they lose their ability to score a run and must return to the dugout until their next turn at bat. When three outs are recorded in a ha ...
per team in a standard 9-
inning In baseball, softball, and similar games, an inning is the basic unit of play, consisting of two halves or frames, the "top" (first half) and the "bottom" (second half). In each half, one team bats until three outs are made, with the other team ...
baseball game).


Accuracy

Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within a 5% margin of error.James, Bill (2002). ''Win Shares'', p. 90. STATS, Inc. Publishing. Other, more advanced versions are even more accurate.


Related statistics

* Win Shares is James' attempt to summarize, in one stat, a player's contributions on both offense and defense.


See also

*
Sabermetrics Sabermetrics, or originally SABRmetrics, is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. Sabermetricians collect and summarize the relevant data from this in-game activity to answer specific ques ...
* Base Runs * Extrapolated Runs *
Runs produced Runs produced is a baseball statistic that can help estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team. The formula adds together the player's runs and run batted in, and then subtracts the player's home runs.Thorn, J. and Palmer, P., ''T ...


References


External links


Career leaders in Runs CreatedSingle-season leaders in Runs CreatedRuns Created leaders among active playersYear-by-year leaders in Runs Created
{{Baseball statistics Batting statistics Bill James