The 2018 Ontario general election was held on June 7, 2018, to elect the 124 members of the

42nd Parliament of Ontario The 42nd Legislative Assembly of Ontario was a legislature of the province of Ontario, Canada. The membership was set by the 2018 Ontario general election and sat for two sessions until it was dissolved on May 3, 2022 in advance of the 2022 Onta ...

. The

Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PC; ), often shortened to the Ontario PC Party, or simply the PCs, colloquially known as the Tories, is a Centre-right politics, centre-right political party in Ontario, Canada. During its uninterr ...

, led by

Doug Ford Douglas Robert Ford Jr. (born November 20, 1964) is a Canadian politician and businessman who has served as the 26th and current premier of Ontario and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party since 2018. He represents the Toronto rid ...

, won 76 of the 124 seats in the legislature and formed a majority government. The

Ontario New Democratic Party The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP; , NPD) is a social democratic political party in Ontario, Canada. The party sits on the centre-left of the political spectrum. It is Ontario’s provincial section of the federal New Democratic Party. The ...

, led by

Andrea Horwath Andrea Lynn Horwath (; born October 24, 1962) is a Canadian politician who has served as the 58th List of mayors of Hamilton, Ontario, mayor of Hamilton since 2022. Horwath served as the leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) from 200 ...

, formed the Official Opposition. The

Ontario Liberal Party The Ontario Liberal Party (OLP; , PLO) is a political party in the province of Ontario, Canada. The party has been led by Bonnie Crombie since December 2023. The party espouses the principles of liberalism, with their rival the Progressive Co ...

, led by incumbent Premier

Kathleen Wynne Kathleen O'Day Wynne ( ; born May 21, 1953) is a former Canadian politician who served as the 25th premier of Ontario and leader of the Ontario Liberal Party from 2013 to 2018. She was Member of Provincial Parliament (Ontario), member of provinci ...

, lost

official party status Official party status refers to the Westminster system, Westminster practice which is used in the Parliament of Canada and the provincial legislatures of recognizing Parliamentary group, parliamentary caucuses of political parties. In parliamentar ...

in recording both the worst result in the party's 161-year history and the worst result for any incumbent governing party in

Ontario Ontario is the southernmost Provinces and territories of Canada, province of Canada. Located in Central Canada, Ontario is the Population of Canada by province and territory, country's most populous province. As of the 2021 Canadian census, it ...

. The

Green Party of Ontario The Green Party of Ontario (GPO; ) is a political party in Ontario, Canada. The party is led by Mike Schreiner. Schreiner was elected as Member of Provincial Parliament (Canada), MPP for the riding of Guelph (provincial electoral district), Gue ...

won a seat for the first time in their history, while the

Trillium Party of Ontario The Trillium Party of Ontario () was a right-wing populist, social conservative political party in the Canadian province of Ontario. Founded in 2014, the party was led by Bob Yaciuk for the duration of its existence. History First contesting the ...

lost its single seat gained by a floor-crossing during the 41st Parliament.

Background

Redistribution of seats

The ''Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015'' increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in

Northern Ontario Northern Ontario is a primary geographic and quasi-administrative region of the Provinces and territories of Canada, Canadian province of Ontario, the other primary region being Southern Ontario. Most of the core geographic region is located on p ...

set out in the 1996 redistribution. The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016, recommended the creation of the additional districts of

Kiiwetinoong Kiiwetinoong () is a provincial electoral district (riding) in Ontario, Canada which elects one member to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario. This riding was created prior to the 42nd Ontario general election from the northern portion of Kenora ...

and

Mushkegowuk—James Bay Mushkegowuk—James Bay () is a provincial electoral district in Ontario, Canada. It elects one member to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario. This riding was created from the northern portion of Timmins—James Bay by the Far North Electoral B ...

, carved out from the existing

Kenora—Rainy River Kenora—Rainy River could refer to: *Kenora—Rainy River (federal electoral district) *Kenora—Rainy River (provincial electoral district) Kenora—Rainy River is a provincial electoral district (Canada), electoral district (riding) in northw ...

and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. This was implemented through the ''Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017''. The new districts have been criticized as undemocratic, as they have a population of around 30,000 people compared with over 120,000 people in some southern Ontario constituencies. ''

National Post The ''National Post'' is a Canadian English-language broadsheet newspaper and the flagship publication of the American-owned Postmedia Network. It is published Mondays through Saturdays, with Monday released as a digital e-edition only.

'' columnist Josh Dehaas suggested that the small population sizes of the ridings might violate the

Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms The ''Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms'' (), often simply referred to as the ''Charter'' in Canada, is a bill of rights entrenched in the Constitution of Canada, forming the first part of the '' Constitution Act, 1982''. The ''Char ...

. In September 2017, a research firm analyzed the impact of redistribution if the boundaries had been in effect for the previous election.

Change of fixed election date

Under legislation passed in 2005, Ontario elections were to be held on "the first Thursday in October in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", subject to the

Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario The lieutenant governor of Ontario (, in French: ''Lieutenant-gouverneur'' (if male) or ''Lieutenante-gouverneure'' (if female) ''de l'Ontario'') is the representative in Ontario of the monarch, who operates distinctly within the province but i ...

's power to call an election earlier. As the current government had a

majority A majority is more than half of a total; however, the term is commonly used with other meanings, as explained in the "#Related terms, Related terms" section below. It is a subset of a Set (mathematics), set consisting of more than half of the se ...

, the passage of a

non-confidence motion A motion or vote of no confidence (or the inverse, a motion or vote of confidence) is a motion and corresponding vote thereon in a deliberative assembly (usually a legislative body) as to whether an officer (typically an executive) is deemed fit ...

was not a likely option for calling an early election, though Premier

stated in June 2015 that she would likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in spring 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days. To put this on a statutory footing, in October 2016

Attorney General of Ontario The attorney general of Ontario is the Attorney general, chief legal adviser to Monarchy in Ontario, His Majesty the King in Right of Ontario and, by extension, the Government of Ontario. The attorney general is a senior member of the Executi ...

Yasir Naqvi Yasir Abbas Naqvi (born 25 January 1973) is a Canadian politician who has served as the Member of Parliament (Canada), member of Parliament (MP) for Ottawa Centre (federal electoral district), Ottawa Centre since the 2021 Canadian federal elect ...

introduced a bill in the Legislative Assembly which, in part, included moving the election date to "the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", and it came into effect in December 2016.

Prelude to campaign

The

attempted to win their fifth consecutive general election, dating back to

2003 2003 was designated by the United Nations as the International Year of Fresh water, Freshwater. In 2003, a Multi-National Force – Iraq, United States-led coalition 2003 invasion of Iraq, invaded Iraq, starting the Iraq War. Demographic ...

. The

won their first election since

1999 1999 was designated as the International Year of Older Persons. Events January * January 1 – The euro currency is established and the European Central Bank assumes its full powers. * January 3 – The Mars Polar Lander is launc ...

, and the

attempted to win their second election (having previously won in

1990 Important events of 1990 include the Reunification of Germany and the unification of Yemen, the formal beginning of the Human Genome Project (finished in 2003), the launch of the Hubble Space Telescope, the separation of Namibia from South ...

). Numerous other extra-parliamentary political parties also vied for votes. The Liberals under

headed into the 2018 campaign trailing far behind the Progressive Conservatives, led by former

Toronto City Council Toronto City Council is the governing body of the municipal government of Toronto, Ontario. Meeting at Toronto City Hall, it comprises 25 city councillors and the mayor of Toronto. The Toronto City Council 2022–2026, current term began on Nove ...

lor

. The Liberals' standing with voters had been badly hurt when they partially privatized Hydro One in 2015, after campaigning against it in the 2014 election, as well as rising criticism over "ballooning provincial debt, high electricity prices and costly, politically expedient decisions". In early April, the CBC published their analysis of aggregate polls showing that Ford and the Progressive Conservatives were ahead of the other parties averaging 42.1% support, compared to 27.2% for the governing Liberals, 23.4% for the NDP and 5.7% for the Greens and with 11 Liberal MPPs announcing they would not be running for re-election or having already resigned their seats in the months leading up to the election. According to Wynne, voters were offered a "stark choice", between "cutting and removing supports from people" with "billions in cuts", which she alleged the Progressive Conservatives would do if they won the election, and expanding investments in social programs such as

prescription drug A prescription drug (also prescription medication, prescription medicine or prescription-only medication) is a pharmaceutical drug that is permitted to be dispensed only to those with a medical prescription. In contrast, over-the-counter drugs c ...

s and

childcare Child care, also known as day care, is the care and supervision of one or more children, typically ranging from three months to 18 years old. Although most parents spend a significant amount of time caring for their child(ren), childcare typica ...

, which the Liberal platform promised. In March 2018, the Liberals tabled a pre-election budget in the provincial legislature which promised billions of dollars in new spending for free childcare and expanded coverage for dental care but replaced the government's previous

balanced budget A balanced budget (particularly that of a government) is a budget in which revenues are equal to expenditures. Thus, neither a budget deficit nor a budget surplus exists (the accounts "balance"). More generally, it is a budget that has no budge ...

with a $6.7 billion deficit projected to last until 2024–2025. PC leader Doug Ford called the budget a "spending spree".

Mood of the voters

According to ''

Toronto Star The ''Toronto Star'' is a Canadian English-language broadsheet daily newspaper. It is owned by Toronto Star Newspapers Limited, a subsidiary of Torstar Corporation and part of Torstar's Daily News Brands (Torstar), Daily News Brands division. ...

'' columnist

Susan Delacourt Susan Delacourt is a Canadian political journalist. She spent her childhood and adolescence in Milton, Ontario. She first developed her skills as a journalist while at the University of Western Ontario, where she was an editor of the UWO Gaze ...

, voters were motivated by a desire for changesuch desire being more driven by emotion than by ideologyand one researcher estimated that more than half of the electorate was undecided in who they were likely to vote for. The ''

Huffington Post ''HuffPost'' (''The Huffington Post'' until 2017, itself often abbreviated as ''HPo'') is an American progressive news website, with localized and international editions. The site offers news, satire, blogs, and original content, and covers ...

'' reported that half of voters were basing their vote intentions on how best to block the party they oppose. In February 2018, Campaign Research conducted a

gap analysis In management literature, gap analysis involves the comparison of actual performance with potential or desired performance. If an organization does not make the best use of current resources, or forgoes investment in productive physical capital ...

on voter intentions in Ontario, and determined the following:

Events leading up to the election (2014–2018)

Campaign period

Contests

Issues

Party slogans

Endorsements

Candidates

Candidate nominations

In February 2018, the PC leadership overturned the nomination of candidates Karma Macgregor in

Ottawa West—Nepean Ottawa is the capital city of Canada. It is located in the southern portion of the province of Ontario, at the confluence of the Ottawa River and the Rideau River. Ottawa borders Gatineau, Quebec, and forms the core of the Ottawa–Gatineau ...

and Thenusha Parani in Scarborough Centre because of irregularities and allegations of ballot stuffing at their nomination meetings. Both candidates denied these claims. The nomination meetings were reorganized, and both candidates lost the nomination at those meetings. However, the PC leadership decided not to overturn the nomination meeting's result in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, where a similar situation took place, because of an ongoing police investigation on this situation. In March 2018, the NDP nominated Lyra Evans as their candidate in Ottawa—Vanier. Evans was the first openly

transgender A transgender (often shortened to trans) person has a gender identity different from that typically associated with the sex they were sex assignment, assigned at birth. The opposite of ''transgender'' is ''cisgender'', which describes perso ...

candidate nominated by a major party to run in an Ontario general election.

Incumbents not running for reelection

Results

Elections Ontario Elections Ontario () is an independent office of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario responsible for the administration of provincial elections and referendums. It is charged with the implementation and enforcement of the ''Election Act'' ( R.S.O ...

used electronic vote tabulator machines from

Dominion Voting Systems Dominion Voting Systems Corporation is a North American company that produces and sells electronic voting hardware and software, including voting machines and tabulators, in Canada and the United States. The company's headquarters are in Toro ...

for counting the ballots. Tabulators were deployed at 50 per cent of polling stations at a cost of . This election was the first time Ontario used vote counting machines for a provincial election, although tabulators have been used in Ontario civic elections for more than 20 years, and also in a 2016

by-election A by-election, also known as a special election in the United States and the Philippines, or a bypoll in India, is an election used to fill an office that has become vacant between general elections. A vacancy may arise as a result of an incumben ...

in Whitby-Oshawa. The original paper ballots marked by voters will be kept for a year along with the digital scans of each ballot by the tabulator. Ontario_general_election_2018_-_PC_Party_Vote_Strength_by_Riding.svg, The percentage of votes cast for the Progressive Conservatives by riding. Ontario_general_election_2018_-_NDP_Vote_Strength_by_Riding.svg, The percentage of votes cast for the NDP by riding. File:Ontario_general_election_2018_-_Liberal_Party_Vote_Strength_by_Riding.svg, The percentage of votes cast for the Liberals by riding. Ontario PC Party Vote Swing in the 2018 Ontario Election.png, Change in Progressive Conservative vote share by riding compared to the 2014 Ontario election. File:Voter Distribution By Party.png, Each dot represents five-thousand votes for the party of the associated colour. Data is based on individual riding results. Dots are placed at random positions within the ridings that they belong to. File:Ontario 2018.png, A

cartogram A cartogram (also called a value-area map or an anamorphic map, the latter common among German-speakers) is a thematic map of a set of features (countries, provinces, etc.), in which their geographic size is altered to be Proportionality (math ...

showing popular vote in each riding. File:Gallagher 2018Ontario.svg, The disproportionality of elections to the Legislative Assembly in the 2018 election was 17.96 according to the

Gallagher Index The Gallagher index measures an electoral system's relative Proportional representation, disproportionality between votes received and seats in a legislature. As such, it measures the difference between the percentage of votes each party gets and ...

, significantly in favour of the PCs.

Synopsis of results

Comparative analysis for ridings (2018 vs 2014)

Detailed results and analysis

, - ! colspan=2 rowspan=2 , Political party ! rowspan=2 , Party leader ! colspan=5 , MPPs ! colspan=3 , Votes , - ! Candidates !

2014 The year 2014 was marked by the surge of the Western African Ebola epidemic, West African Ebola epidemic, which began in 2013, becoming the List of Ebola outbreaks, most widespread outbreak of the Ebola, Ebola virus in human history, resul ...

! Dissol. !2018 !± !# !% ! ± (pp) , style="text-align:left;",

, 124 , 28 , 27 , 76 , 48 , 2,326,523 , 40.19% , 9.08 , style="text-align:left;",

, 124 , 21 , 18 , 40 , 19 , 1,929,966 , 33.34% , 9.68 , style="text-align:left;",

, 124 , 58 , 55 , 7 , 51 , 1,124,346 , 19.42% , 19.10 , style="text-align:left;",

Mike Schreiner Michael John Schreiner ( ; born 9 June 1969) is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Green Party of Ontario since 2009. Schreiner sits as a Member of Provincial Parliament (Ontario), member of Provincial Parliament (MPP), ...

, 124 , – , – , 1 , 1 , 264,519 , 4.57% , 0.31 , style="text-align:left;", Allen Small , 117 , – , – , – , – , 42,822 , 0.74% , 0.04 , style="text-align:left;", Greg Vezina , 42 , – , – , – , – , 16,146 , 0.28% , 0.20 , colspan="2" style="text-align:left;", Independents and no affiliation , 32 , – , 2 , – , – , 8,226 , 0.14% , 0.06 , style="text-align:left;", Bob Yaciuk , 26 , – , 1 , – , – , 8,091 , 0.14% , 0.13 , style="text-align:left;", Trevor Holliday , 10 , – , – , – , – , 5,912 , 0.10% , 0.08 , style="text-align:left;", Brad Harness , 10 , – , – , – , – , 2,682 , 0.05% , , style="text-align:left;", Paul McKeever , 14 , – , – , – , – , 2,565 , 0.04% , 0.20 , style="text-align:left;", Jason Tysick , 5 , – , – , – , – , 2,316 , 0.04% , , style="text-align:left;", Yuri Duboisky , 16 , – , – , – , – , 2,199 , 0.04% , 0.03 , style="text-align:left;", Dave McKee , 12 , – , – , – , – , 1,471 , 0.03% , 0.01 , style="text-align:left;", Bahman Yazdanfar , 5 , – , – , – , – , 1,239 , 0.02% , 0.01 , style="text-align:left;", Queenie Yu , 3 , – , – , – , – , 1,078 , 0.02% , , style="text-align:left;", Joshua E. Eriksen , 3 , – , – , – , – , 802 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Daryl Christoff , 3 , – , – , – , – , 634 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Hilton Milan , 5 , – , – , – , – , 631 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Kevin Clarke , 6 , – , – , – , – , 628 , 0.01% , 0.01 , style="text-align:left;", ''vacant'' , 2 , – , – , – , – , 386 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Ken Ranney , 2 , – , – , – , – , 340 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Patrick Knight , 2 , – , – , – , – , 321 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Paul Figueiras , 2 , – , – , – , – , 256 , – , 0.02 , style="text-align:left;", Arthur Smitherman , 3 , – , – , – , – , 215 , – , , style="text-align:left;", Wasyl Luczkiw , 2 , – , – , – , – , 191 , – , , style="text-align:left;", Derrick Matthews , 2 , – , – , – , – , 176 , – , , style="text-align:left;",

John Turmel John C. Turmel (born February 22, 1951) is a perennial candidate for election in Canada, and according to the ''Guinness World Records'' holds the records for the most elections contested and for the most elections lost, having contested 112 el ...

, 2 , – , – , – , – , 112 , – , , style="text-align:left;", Abu Alam , 2 , – , – , – , – , 67 , – , , style="text-align:left;" colspan="4", Vacant , 4 , colspan="5", , - , colspan="8" style="text-align:left;", Declined ballots , align="right", 22,684 , align="right", , align="right", , - , colspan="8" style="text-align:left;", Blank and invalid ballots , align="right", 38,742 , align="right", , align="right", , -style="background:#E9E9E9;" , colspan="3" style="text-align:left;", Total , 825 , 107 , 107 , 124 , , 5,806,286 , 100.00% , , -style="background:#E9E9E9;" , colspan="8" style="text-align:left;", Registered voters / turnout , 10,246,066 , 56.67% , 5.38 Incumbents MPPs who lost their seats 38 incumbent Liberal MPPs lost their re-election races, as well as a one Trillium party MPP. * ‡ means that the Incumbent was originally from a different riding * "b.e." is a short term for "

By-election A by-election, also known as a special election in the United States and the Philippines, or a bypoll in India, is an election used to fill an office that has become vacant between general elections. A vacancy may arise as a result of an incumben ...

Regional analysis

Most marginal 2-way and 3-way contests

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

Student Vote results

Student Vote elections are mock elections that run parallel to real elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by CIVIX Canada, in partnership with Elections Ontario. Student Vote elections are for educational purposes and do not count towards the actual results. ! colspan="2" rowspan="2" , Party ! rowspan="2" , Leader ! colspan="3" , Seats ! colspan="3" , Votes , - ! Elected !

! ± ! # ! % ! Change , - , style="text-align: left;" ,

, 68 , , 41 , , 27 , , 88,177 , , 32.35%, , 5.75 , - , style="text-align: left;" ,

, 45 , , 25 , , 20 , , 72,803 , , 26.71% , , 5.71 , - , style="text-align: left;" , Kathleen Wynn , 10 , , 39 , , 29 , , 51,221 , , 18.79% , , 7.11 , style="text-align: left;" ,

, 2 , , 2 , , , , 35,368 , , 12.97% , , 3.43 , - , - , - , style="text-align: left;" colspan="2" , Others , 0 , , 0 , , 0 , , 24,769 , , 9.08% , , 0.72 , - , style="text-align: left;" colspan="6" , Valid votes , 268,091 , , 95.51% , , , - , style="text-align: left;" colspan="6" , Rejected ballots , 12,600 , , 4.49% , , , - , style="text-align: left;" colspan="3" , Total votes cast , 125* , , 107 , , , , 280,691 , , , , , - , colspan="9" style="text-align: left;" , Source: https://studentvote.ca/results/on2018

Opinion polls

Campaign period

Opinion polling during the 2018 Ontario provincial election campaign

Best Premier and Party Leader Approval Ratings

Major Regional Polls – Toronto

Pre-campaign period

Notes

References

External links

Elections Ontario
{{DEFAULTSORT:Ontario general election, 2018

2018 Events January * January 1 – Bulgaria takes over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union, after the Estonian presidency. * January 4 – SPLM-IO rebels loyal to Chan Garang Lual start a raid against Juba, capital of ...

June 2018 in Canada

Background

Redistribution of seats

Change of fixed election date

Prelude to campaign

Mood of the voters

Events leading up to the election (2014–2018)

Campaign period

Contests

Issues

Party slogans

Endorsements

Candidates

Candidate nominations

Incumbents not running for reelection

Results

Synopsis of results

Comparative analysis for ridings (2018 vs 2014)

Detailed results and analysis

Regional analysis

Most marginal 2-way and 3-way contests

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

Student Vote results

Opinion polls

Campaign period

Best Premier and Party Leader Approval Ratings

Major Regional Polls – Toronto

Pre-campaign period

Notes

References

Further reading

External links