Manitoba General Election, 2016

The 2016 Manitoba general election was held on April 19, 2016 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Tories won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats.

The election also removed one of the two New Democratic governments in the country, the other being formed by the Alberta New Democratic Party.

Date

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election. As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April. Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election was scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early. The legislature was dissolved and writs or the election were dropped on March 16, 2016.

Campaign

The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election, the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting; in the context of the Manitoba election, however, polling found that none of the three main party leaders was particularly well-liked or trusted by the electorate."Voters don't trust leaders, but Pallister fares better than rivals: poll"
''Winnipeg Free Press'', April 9, 2016. Although Pallister fared best with 33 per cent support in public opinion polling on the question of preferred premier, even he finished only one point ahead of "none of the above" at 32 per cent.

The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate. Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change.

Election summary

The Tories went into the election as heavy favourites, having led opinion polls for almost four years. They scored a near-sweep of rural southern and central Manitoba, and also made significant inroads in Winnipeg, taking every seat in the southern and western portions of the capital. In many cases, previously safe NDP seats either fell to the Tories or saw the NDP margins cut by more than half.

, -
!rowspan="2" colspan="2", Party
!rowspan="2", Leader
!rowspan="2", Candidates
!colspan="4", Seats
!colspan="3", Popular vote
, -
! 2011
! Dissol.
!2016
!+/-
!Votes
!%
!% change

, align=left, Brian Pallister
, 57 , , 19 , , , 19 , , 40, , +21, , 232,215 , , 53.10 , , +9.39

, align=left, Greg Selinger
, 57 , , 37 , , 35 , , 14, , -21, , 112,748 , , 25.78 , , −20.38

, align=left, Rana Bokhari
, 51 , , 1 , , 1 , , 3, , +2, , 62,973 , , 14.40 , , +6.88

, align=left, James Beddome
, 30 , , – , , – , , –, , –, , 22,188 , , 5.07 , , +2.55
, -

, align=left, Gary Marshall
, 16 , , – , , – , , –, , –, , 4,887 , , 1.12 , , n/a
, -

, align=left, Darrell Rankin
, 6 , , – , , – , , –, , –, , 305 , , 0.07 , , +0.03

, colspan="2" style="text-align:left;", Independents
, 4 , , – , , – , , –, , –, , 2,032 , , 0.46 , , +0.41

, colspan="4" style="text-align:left;", Vacant
, 2
, colspan="5" ,
, -
, style="text-align:left;" colspan="3", Total
, 221 , , 57 , , 57 , , 57 , , , , 437,348 , , , ,

Summary results

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Opinion polls

Candidates by riding

* Note that names in bold type represent Cabinet members, while ''italics'' represent party leaders.

Northern Manitoba

, -
, style="background:whitesmoke;", Flin Flon
, ,
, Tom Lindsey
1,106
,
, Angela Enright
954
,
, Leslie Beck
948
,
,
,
, Clarence Pettersen (Ind.)
359
, ,
, Clarence Pettersen
, -
, style="background:whitesmoke;", Kewatinook
,
, Eric Robinson
1,207
,
, Edna Nabess
375
, ,
, Judy Klassen
1,565
,
,
,
,
, ,
, Eric Robinson
, -
, style="background:whitesmoke;", Swan River
,
, Ron Kostyshyn
2,408
, ,
, Rick Wowchuk
4,081
,
, Shayne Lynxleg
483
,
, Dan Soprovich
296
,
,
, ,
, Ron Kostyshyn
, -
, style="background:whitesmoke;", The Pas
, ,
, Amanda Lathlin
,
, Steve Ashton
1,527
, ,
, Kelly Bindle
1,712
,
, Inez Vystrcil-Spence
638
,
,
,
,
, ,
, Steve Ashton

Westman/Parkland

, -
, style="background:whitesmoke;", Agassiz
,
, Courtney Lucas
450
, ,
, Eileen Clarke
5,228
,
,
,
, Robert Smith
409
,
, Damian Dempsey (Ind.)
910
, ,
, Stu Briese
, -
, style="background:whitesmoke;", Arthur-Virden
,
, Lorne Topolniski
600
, ,
, Doyle Piwniuk