|
Swing (politics)
An electoral swing analysis (or swing) shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties, often between major parties in a two-party system. A swing can be calculated for the electorate as a whole, for a given electoral district or for a particular demographic. A swing is particularly useful for analysing change in voter support over time, or as a tool for predicting the outcome of elections in constituency-based systems. Swing is also usefully deployed when analysing the shift in voter intentions revealed by (political) opinion polls or to compare polls concisely which may rely on differing samples and on markedly different swings and therefore predict extraneous results. Calculation The swing is calculated by comparing the percentage of the vote in a particular election to the percentage o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Election
An election is a formal group decision-making process whereby a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold Public administration, public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy has operated since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the executive (government), executive and judiciary, and for local government, regional and local government. This process is also used in many other private and business organizations, from clubs to voluntary association and corporations. The global use of elections as a tool for selecting representatives in modern representative democracies is in contrast with the practice in the democratic archetype, ancient History of Athens , Athens, where the elections were considered an oligarchy , oligarchic institution and most political offices were filled using sortition, also known as allotment, by which officeholders were chosen by lot. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Swing State
In United States politics, a swing state (also known as battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as "safe states" (or more specifically as "red states" and "blue states" depending on the partisan leaning), as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which a sufficient share of the electorate can be drawn without significant investment or effort by the campaign. In the 2024 United States presidential election, seven states were widely considered to be the crucial swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Due to the winner-take- ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Elections
An election is a formal group decision-making process whereby a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy has operated since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the executive and judiciary, and for regional and local government. This process is also used in many other private and business organizations, from clubs to voluntary association and corporations. The global use of elections as a tool for selecting representatives in modern representative democracies is in contrast with the practice in the democratic archetype, ancient Athens, where the elections were considered an oligarchic institution and most political offices were filled using sortition, also known as allotment, by which officeholders were chosen by lot. Electoral reform describes the process of introducing fair electoral systems where they are ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Swingometer
The swingometer is a graphics device that shows the effects of the Swing (United Kingdom), swing from one party to another on United Kingdom, British UK General Elections, election results programmes. It is used to estimate the number of seats that will be won by different parties, given a particular national swing (in percentage points) in the vote towards or away from a given party, and assuming that that percentage change in the vote will apply in each constituency. The device was invented by Peter Milne, and later refined by David Butler (academic), David Butler and Robert McKenzie (psephologist), Robert McKenzie. The first outing on British television was during a regional output from the Broadcasting House, Bristol, BBC studios in Bristol during the 1955 United Kingdom general election, 1955 general election (the first UK general election to be televised) and was used to show the swing in the two constituencies of Southampton Itchen (UK Parliament constituency), Southampton ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Swing Vote
A swing vote is a vote that is seen as potentially going to any one of a number of candidates in an election, or, in a two-party system, may go to either of the two dominant political parties. It usually comes from voters who are 'undecided' or who may change their preferences between candidates or parties. Such votes are usually sought after in election campaigns, since they can play a big role in determining the outcome. A swing voter or floating voter is a voter who may not be affiliated with a particular political party (Independent) or who will vote across party lines. In American politics, many centrists, liberal Republicans, and conservative Democrats are considered "swing voters" since their voting patterns cannot be predicted as easily as voters in 'safe seat' voters. While the swing voter is ostensibly the target of most political activity during elections, another factor is the success of each party in rallying its core support. In a two-party system, those who ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Exit Polls
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take many hours to count. History There are different views on who invented the exit poll. Marcel van Dam, Dutch sociologist and former politician, says he was the inventor, by being the first to implement one during the Dutch legislative elections on 15 February 1967. Other sources say Warren Mitofsky, an American pollster, was the first. For CBS News, he devised an exit poll in the Kentucky gubernatorial election in November that same year. Notwithstanding this, the mention of the first exit polls date back to the 1940s when such a poll was held in Denver, Colorado. Purpose E ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Guardian
''The Guardian'' is a British daily newspaper. It was founded in Manchester in 1821 as ''The Manchester Guardian'' and changed its name in 1959, followed by a move to London. Along with its sister paper, ''The Guardian Weekly'', ''The Guardian'' is part of the Guardian Media Group, owned by the Scott Trust Limited. The trust was created in 1936 to "secure the financial and editorial independence of ''The Guardian'' in perpetuity and to safeguard the journalistic freedom and liberal values of ''The Guardian'' free from commercial or political interference". The trust was converted into a limited company in 2008, with a constitution written so as to maintain for ''The Guardian'' the same protections as were built into the structure of the Scott Trust by its creators. Profits are reinvested in its journalism rather than distributed to owners or shareholders. It is considered a newspaper of record in the UK. The editor-in-chief Katharine Viner succeeded Alan Rusbridger in 2015. S ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Political Party
A political party is an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in a particular area's elections. It is common for the members of a party to hold similar ideas about politics, and parties may promote specific political ideology, ideological or policy goals. Political parties have become a major part of the politics of almost every country, as modern party organizations developed and spread around the world over the last few centuries. Although List of countries without political parties, some countries have no political parties, this is extremely rare. Most countries have Multi-party system, several parties while others One-party state, only have one. Parties are important in the politics of autocracies as well as democracies, though usually Democracy, democracies have more political parties than autocracies. Autocracies often have a single party that Government, governs the country, and some political scientists consider competition between two or more parties to ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Democracy
Democracy (from , ''dēmos'' 'people' and ''kratos'' 'rule') is a form of government in which political power is vested in the people or the population of a state. Under a minimalist definition of democracy, rulers are elected through competitive Election, elections while more expansive or maximalist definitions link democracy to guarantees of civil liberties and human rights in addition to competitive elections. In a direct democracy, the people have the direct authority to Deliberation, deliberate and decide legislation. In a representative democracy, the people choose governing officials through elections to do so. The definition of "the people" and the ways authority is shared among them or delegated by them have changed over time and at varying rates in different countries. Features of democracy oftentimes include freedom of assembly, freedom of association, association, personal property, freedom of religion and freedom of speech, speech, citizenship, consent of the governe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Swingometer
The swingometer is a graphics device that shows the effects of the Swing (United Kingdom), swing from one party to another on United Kingdom, British UK General Elections, election results programmes. It is used to estimate the number of seats that will be won by different parties, given a particular national swing (in percentage points) in the vote towards or away from a given party, and assuming that that percentage change in the vote will apply in each constituency. The device was invented by Peter Milne, and later refined by David Butler (academic), David Butler and Robert McKenzie (psephologist), Robert McKenzie. The first outing on British television was during a regional output from the Broadcasting House, Bristol, BBC studios in Bristol during the 1955 United Kingdom general election, 1955 general election (the first UK general election to be televised) and was used to show the swing in the two constituencies of Southampton Itchen (UK Parliament constituency), Southampton ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Pie Chart
A pie chart (or a circle chart) is a circular Statistical graphics, statistical graphic which is divided into slices to illustrate numerical proportion. In a pie chart, the arc length of each slice (and consequently its central angle and area) is Proportionality (mathematics), proportional to the quantity it represents. While it is named for its resemblance to a pie which has been sliced, there are variations on the way it can be presented. The earliest known pie chart is generally credited to William Playfair's ''Statistical Breviary'' of 1801.Spence (2005)Tufte, p. 44 Pie charts are very widely used in the business world and the mass media.Cleveland, p. 262 However, they have been criticized,Wilkinson, p. 23. and many experts recommend avoiding them,Tufte, p. 178.van Belle, p. 160–162.Stephen Few"Save the Pies for Dessert" August 2007, Retrieved 2010-02-02Steve Fento"Pie Charts Are Bad"/ref> as research has shown it is more difficult to make simple comparisons such as the si ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Safe Seat
A safe seat is an electoral district which is regarded as fully secure, for either a certain political party, or the incumbent representative personally or a combination of both. With such seats, there is very little chance of a seat changing hands because of the political leanings of the electorate in the constituency concerned or the popularity of the incumbent member. This contrasts with a marginal seat in which a defeat for the seat holder is considered possible. In systems where candidates must first win the party's primary election or preselection, the phrase "tantamount to election" is often used to describe winning the dominant party's nomination for a safe seat. Definition There is a spectrum between safe and marginal seats. Supposedly safe seats can still change hands in a landslide election, such as Enfield Southgate being lost by the Conservatives (and then-potential future party leader Michael Portillo) to Labour at the 1997 UK general election, whilst oth ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
