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Structural-demographic Theory
In social science, the structural-demographic theory (SDT, also known as Demographic Structural Theory) uses mathematical modeling to explain and predict outbreaks of political instability in complex societies. It originated in the work of sociologist Jack Goldstone and has recently been developed further by the quantitative historians Peter Turchin, Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Grinin and Sergey Nefedov. Theory As applied by Peter Turchin and colleagues, SDT divides historically observed societies into four components: the state, elites, the general population, and one processual component designed to measure political instability. These four components are each subdivided into different attributes, which fluctuate dynamically and influence one another through a series of feedback loops. For instance, the theory takes into account the numbers and composition of elites, the age structure and degree of urbanization of the general population, and the revenues and expenditures of the stat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mathematics
Mathematics is a field of study that discovers and organizes methods, Mathematical theory, theories and theorems that are developed and Mathematical proof, proved for the needs of empirical sciences and mathematics itself. There are many areas of mathematics, which include number theory (the study of numbers), algebra (the study of formulas and related structures), geometry (the study of shapes and spaces that contain them), Mathematical analysis, analysis (the study of continuous changes), and set theory (presently used as a foundation for all mathematics). Mathematics involves the description and manipulation of mathematical object, abstract objects that consist of either abstraction (mathematics), abstractions from nature orin modern mathematicspurely abstract entities that are stipulated to have certain properties, called axioms. Mathematics uses pure reason to proof (mathematics), prove properties of objects, a ''proof'' consisting of a succession of applications of in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Political Instability
Political decay is a political theory, originally described in 1965 by Samuel P. Huntington, which describes how chaos and disorder can arise from social modernization increasing more rapidly than political and institutional modernization. Huntington provides different definitions for political development and describes the forms of political decay according to the various definitions. Huntington focuses primarily on political development as modernization and institutionalization. However, he points to the different definitions of political development as being arbitrary ways to understanding the rise of political systems and the relationship between the political systems of different nations. Political decay is a widespread ailment that affects every society. As Aristotle once noted, humans are inherently political beings (), but it is rare to find individuals who are truly honest in their political endeavors. Political development Huntington identifies two characteristics of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Jack Goldstone
Jack A. Goldstone (born September 30, 1953) is an American sociologist, political scientist, and historian, specializing in studies of social movements, revolutions, political demography, and the 'Rise of the West' in world history. He is an author or editor of 13 books and over 150 research articles. He is recognized as one of the leading authorities on the study of revolutions and long-term social change. Career His work has made foundational contributions to the fields of cliodynamics, economic history and political demography. He was the first scholar to describe in detail and document the long-term cyclical relationship between global population and of political rebellion and revolution. He was also a core member of the "California school" in world history, which replaced the standard view of a dynamic West and stagnant East with a 'late divergence' model in which Eastern and Western civilizations underwent similar political and economic cycles until the 18th century, when ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Peter Turchin
Peter Valentinovich Turchin (; born 22 May 1957) is a Russian-American complexity scientist, specializing in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called cliodynamics—mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies. Turchin is an emeritus professor at the University of Connecticut in the departments of ecology and evolutionary biology, anthropology, and mathematics. He is a project leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna and a research associate at the School of Anthropology of the University of Oxford. He was editor-in-chief and remains a member of the editorial board at ''Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution''. Turchin is a founding director of the Seshat: Global History Databank. He was a director of the Evolution Institute. In 2021, he was elected a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Early life and education Peter Turchin was born in 1957 in O ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Andrey Korotayev
Andrey Vitalievich Korotayev (; born 17 February 1961) is a Russian anthropology, anthropologist, economic history, economic historian, comparative politics, comparative political scientist, demography, demographer and sociology, sociologist, with major contributions to world-systems theory, cross-cultural studies, Near Eastern history, Big History, and mathematical modelling of social and Macroeconomics, economic macrodynamics. He is currently the Director of the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at the Higher School of Economics, HSE University in Moscow, and a Senior Research Professor at the Center for Big History and System Forecasting of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Oriental Studies as well as in the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In addition, he is a senior research professor of the International Laboratory on Political Demography and Social Macrodynamics (PDSM) of the Russia ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Leonid Grinin
Leonid Efimovich Grinin (; born in 1958) is a Russian philosopher of history, sociologist, political anthropologist, economist, and futurologist. Born in Kamyshin (the Volgograd Region), Grinin attended Volgograd State Pedagogical University, where he got an M.A. in 1980. He got his Ph.D. from Moscow State University in 1996. He is a Research Professor and Director of the Volgograd Center for Social Research, Deputy Director of the Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Science and Senior Research Professor at the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis of Higher School of Economics, HSE Universitybr> He is Editor-in-Chief of the journal Age of Globalization (in Russian), a vice-editor of the journals ''History and Modernity'', ''Historical Psychology and Sociology of History'' and ''Philosophy and Society'' (all in Russian), and a co-editor of the Social Evolution & History and ''Journal of Globaliza ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sergey Nefedov
Sergey Aleksandrovich Nefedov (; born November 4, 1951) is a Russian historian, Doctor of Sciences in Historical Sciences (2007), Candidate of Sciences in physico-mathematical sciences (1981), leading researcher at the Institute of History and Archaeology of the Ural branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He also is a professor at the Ural Federal University. In 1968 he entered and in 1973 he graduated from the Ural State University, Mathematics and Mechanics Faculty. From 1973 to 1975, he was a graduate student at Ural State University. He was a student of Nikolay Krasovsky. He has twice received 'Public Thought Award' (2008, 2011). He also received the Academician Rychkov Award (2011). He is a ''Novy Mir'' magazine award winner (2016). Author of more than 300 publications, including several monographs. He published in Voprosy Istorii, Russian History, Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Voprosy Ekonomiki, Social Evolution & History, Economics & Sociology. He i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Government
A government is the system or group of people governing an organized community, generally a State (polity), state. In the case of its broad associative definition, government normally consists of legislature, executive (government), executive, and judiciary. Government is a means by which organizational policies are enforced, as well as a mechanism for determining policy. In many countries, the government has a kind of constitution, a statement of its governing principles and philosophy. While all types of organizations have governance, the term ''government'' is often used more specifically to refer to the approximately 200 list of sovereign states, independent national governments and government agency, subsidiary organizations. The main types of modern political systems recognized are democracy, democracies, totalitarian regimes, and, sitting between these two, authoritarianism, authoritarian regimes with a variety of hybrid regimes. Modern classification systems also ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Elite
In political and sociological theory, the elite (, from , to select or to sort out) are a small group of powerful or wealthy people who hold a disproportionate amount of wealth, privilege, political power, or skill in a group. Defined by the ''Cambridge Dictionary'', the "elite" are "the richest, most powerful, best-educated, or best-trained group in a society". American sociologist C. Wright Mills states that members of the elite accept their fellows' position of importance in society. "As a rule, 'they accept one another, understand one another, marry one another, tend to work, and to think, if not together at least alike'." It is a well-regulated existence where education plays a critical role. Plantations As European settlers began to colonize the Americas in the 16th and 17th centuries, they quickly realized the economic potential of growing cash crops which were in high demand in Europe. Owned by the planter class, plantations, large-scale farms where large numbers of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Taiping Rebellion
The Taiping Rebellion, also known as the Taiping Civil War or the Taiping Revolution, was a civil war in China between the Qing dynasty and the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom. The conflict lasted 14 years, from its outbreak in 1850 until the fall of Taiping-controlled Nanjing—which they had renamed Tianjing "heavenly capital"—in 1864. The last rebel forces were defeated in August 1871. Estimates of the conflict's death toll range between 20 million and 30 million people, representing 5–10% of China's population at that time. While the Qing ultimately defeated the rebellion, the victory came at a great cost to the state's economic and political viability. The uprising was led by Hong Xiuquan, an ethnic Hakka who proclaimed himself to be the brother of Jesus Christ. Hong sought the religious conversion of the Han people to his God Worshipping Society, syncretic version of Christianity, as well as the political overthrow of the Qing dynasty, and a general transformation of the mech ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Youth Bulge
A population pyramid (age structure diagram) or "age-sex pyramid" is a graphical illustration of the distribution of a population (typically that of a country or region of the world) by age groups and sex; it typically takes the shape of a pyramid when the population is growing. Males are usually shown on the left and females on the right, and they may be measured in absolute numbers or as a percentage of the total population. The pyramid can be used to visualize the age of a particular population. It is also used in ecology to determine the overall age distribution of a population; an indication of the reproductive capabilities and likelihood of the continuation of a species. Number of people per unit area of land is called population density. Structure A population pyramid often contains continuous stacked-histogram bars, making it a horizontal bar diagram. The population size is shown on the x-axis (horizontal) while the age-groups are represented on the y-axis (vertical). The ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Malthusianism
Malthusianism is a theory that population growth is potentially exponential, according to the Malthusian growth model, while the growth of the food supply or other resources is linear, which eventually reduces living standards to the point of triggering a population decline. This event, called a Malthusian catastrophe (also known as a Malthusian trap, population trap, Malthusian check, Malthusian snatch, Malthusian crisis, Point of Crisis, or Malthusian crunch) has been predicted to occur if population growth outpaces agricultural production, thereby causing famine or war. According to this theory, poverty and inequality will increase as the price of assets and scarce commodities goes up due to fierce competition for these dwindling resources. This increased level of poverty eventually causes depopulation by decreasing birth rates. If asset prices keep increasing, social unrest would occur, which would likely cause a major war, revolution, or a famine. Societal collapse is an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
