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Collider (epidemiology)
In statistics and causal graphs, a variable is a collider when it is causally influenced by two or more variables. The name "collider" reflects the fact that in graphical models, the arrow heads from variables that lead into the collider appear to "collide" on the node that is the collider. They are sometimes also referred to as inverted forks. The causal variables influencing the collider are themselves not necessarily associated. If they are not adjacent, the collider is ''unshielded''. Otherwise, the collider is shielded and part of a triangle. The result of having a collider in the path is that the collider blocks the association between the variables that influence it. Thus, the collider does not generate an unconditional association between the variables that determine it. Conditioning on the collider via regression analysis, stratification, experimental design, or sample selection based on values of the collider create a non-causal association between X and Y ( Berkson' ...
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Statistics
Statistics (from German: '' Statistik'', "description of a state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments.Dodge, Y. (2006) ''The Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms'', Oxford University Press. When census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey samples. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can reasonably extend from the sample to the population as a whole. An ...
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Causality
Causality (also referred to as causation, or cause and effect) is influence by which one event, process, state, or object (''a'' ''cause'') contributes to the production of another event, process, state, or object (an ''effect'') where the cause is partly responsible for the effect, and the effect is partly dependent on the cause. In general, a process has many causes, which are also said to be ''causal factors'' for it, and all lie in its past. An effect can in turn be a cause of, or causal factor for, many other effects, which all lie in its future. Some writers have held that causality is metaphysically prior to notions of time and space. Causality is an abstraction that indicates how the world progresses. As such a basic concept, it is more apt as an explanation of other concepts of progression than as something to be explained by others more basic. The concept is like those of agency and efficacy. For this reason, a leap of intuition may be needed to grasp it. According ...
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Independence (probability Theory)
Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory, as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes. Two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent if, informally speaking, the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other or, equivalently, does not affect the odds. Similarly, two random variables are independent if the realization of one does not affect the probability distribution of the other. When dealing with collections of more than two events, two notions of independence need to be distinguished. The events are called pairwise independent if any two events in the collection are independent of each other, while mutual independence (or collective independence) of events means, informally speaking, that each event is independent of any combination of other events in the collection. A similar notion exists for collections of random variables. Mutual independence implies pairwise independen ...
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Epidemiology
Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and determinants of health and disease conditions in a defined population. It is a cornerstone of public health, and shapes policy decisions and evidence-based practice by identifying risk factors for disease and targets for preventive healthcare. Epidemiologists help with study design, collection, and statistical analysis of data, amend interpretation and dissemination of results (including peer review and occasional systematic review). Epidemiology has helped develop methodology used in clinical research, public health studies, and, to a lesser extent, basic research in the biological sciences. Major areas of epidemiological study include disease causation, transmission, outbreak investigation, disease surveillance, environmental epidemiology, forensic epidemiology, occupational epidemiology, screening, biomonitoring, and comparisons of treatment effects such as in clinical t ...
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Selection Bias
Selection bias is the bias introduced by the selection of individuals, groups, or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby failing to ensure that the sample obtained is representative of the population intended to be analyzed. It is sometimes referred to as the selection effect. The phrase "selection bias" most often refers to the distortion of a statistical analysis, resulting from the method of collecting samples. If the selection bias is not taken into account, then some conclusions of the study may be false. Types Sampling bias Sampling bias is systematic error due to a non- random sample of a population, causing some members of the population to be less likely to be included than others, resulting in a biased sample, defined as a statistical sample of a population (or non-human factors) in which all participants are not equally balanced or objectively represented. It is mostly classified as a subtype of selection bias, sometimes sp ...
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Directed Acyclic Graph
In mathematics, particularly graph theory, and computer science, a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is a directed graph with no directed cycles. That is, it consists of vertices and edges (also called ''arcs''), with each edge directed from one vertex to another, such that following those directions will never form a closed loop. A directed graph is a DAG if and only if it can be topologically ordered, by arranging the vertices as a linear ordering that is consistent with all edge directions. DAGs have numerous scientific and computational applications, ranging from biology (evolution, family trees, epidemiology) to information science (citation networks) to computation (scheduling). Directed acyclic graphs are sometimes instead called acyclic directed graphs or acyclic digraphs. Definitions A graph is formed by vertices and by edges connecting pairs of vertices, where the vertices can be any kind of object that is connected in pairs by edges. In the case of a directed graph ...
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Confounding
In statistics, a confounder (also confounding variable, confounding factor, extraneous determinant or lurking variable) is a variable that influences both the dependent variable and independent variable, causing a spurious association. Confounding is a causal concept, and as such, cannot be described in terms of correlations or associations.Pearl, J., (2009). Simpson's Paradox, Confounding, and Collapsibility In ''Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference'' (2nd ed.). New York : Cambridge University Press. The existence of confounders is an important quantitative explanation why correlation does not imply causation. Confounds are threats to internal validity. Definition Confounding is defined in terms of the data generating model. Let ''X'' be some independent variable, and ''Y'' some dependent variable. To estimate the effect of ''X'' on ''Y'', the statistician must suppress the effects of extraneous variables that influence both ''X'' and ''Y''. We say that ''X' ...
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Causal Graphs
In statistics, econometrics, epidemiology, genetics and related disciplines, causal graphs (also known as path diagrams, causal Bayesian networks or DAGs) are probabilistic graphical models used to encode assumptions about the data-generating process. Causal graphs can be used for communication and for inference. As communication devices, the graphs provide formal and transparent representation of the causal assumptions that researchers may wish to convey and defend. As inference tools, the graphs enable researchers to estimate effect sizes from non-experimental data, derive testable implications of the assumptions encoded, test for external validity, and manage missing data and selection bias. Causal graphs were first used by the geneticist Sewall Wright under the rubric "path diagrams". They were later adopted by social scientists and, to a lesser extent, by economists. These models were initially confined to linear equations with fixed parameters. Modern developments have ext ...
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Confounder
In statistics, a confounder (also confounding variable, confounding factor, extraneous determinant or lurking variable) is a variable that influences both the dependent variable and independent variable, causing a spurious association. Confounding is a causal concept, and as such, cannot be described in terms of correlations or associations.Pearl, J., (2009). Simpson's Paradox, Confounding, and Collapsibility In ''Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference'' (2nd ed.). New York : Cambridge University Press. The existence of confounders is an important quantitative explanation why correlation does not imply causation. Confounds are threats to internal validity. Definition Confounding is defined in terms of the data generating model. Let ''X'' be some independent variable, and ''Y'' some dependent variable. To estimate the effect of ''X'' on ''Y'', the statistician must suppress the effects of extraneous variables that influence both ''X'' and ''Y''. We say that ''X'' and ...
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Causal Graphs
In statistics, econometrics, epidemiology, genetics and related disciplines, causal graphs (also known as path diagrams, causal Bayesian networks or DAGs) are probabilistic graphical models used to encode assumptions about the data-generating process. Causal graphs can be used for communication and for inference. As communication devices, the graphs provide formal and transparent representation of the causal assumptions that researchers may wish to convey and defend. As inference tools, the graphs enable researchers to estimate effect sizes from non-experimental data, derive testable implications of the assumptions encoded, test for external validity, and manage missing data and selection bias. Causal graphs were first used by the geneticist Sewall Wright under the rubric "path diagrams". They were later adopted by social scientists and, to a lesser extent, by economists. These models were initially confined to linear equations with fixed parameters. Modern developments have ext ...
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Berkson's Paradox
Berkson's paradox, also known as Berkson's bias, collider bias, or Berkson's fallacy, is a result in conditional probability and statistics which is often found to be counterintuitive, and hence a veridical paradox. It is a complicating factor arising in statistical tests of proportions. Specifically, it arises when there is an ascertainment bias inherent in a study design. The effect is related to the explaining away phenomenon in Bayesian networks, and conditioning on a collider in graphical models. It is often described in the fields of medical statistics or biostatistics, as in the original description of the problem by Joseph Berkson. Examples Overview The most common example of Berkson's paradox is a false observation of a ''negative'' correlation between two desirable traits, i.e., that members of a population which have some desirable trait tend to lack a second. Berkson's paradox occurs when this observation appears true when in reality the two properties are unrelate ...
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Regression Analysis
In statistical modeling, regression analysis is a set of statistical processes for estimating the relationships between a dependent variable (often called the 'outcome' or 'response' variable, or a 'label' in machine learning parlance) and one or more independent variables (often called 'predictors', 'covariates', 'explanatory variables' or 'features'). The most common form of regression analysis is linear regression, in which one finds the line (or a more complex linear combination) that most closely fits the data according to a specific mathematical criterion. For example, the method of ordinary least squares computes the unique line (or hyperplane) that minimizes the sum of squared differences between the true data and that line (or hyperplane). For specific mathematical reasons (see linear regression), this allows the researcher to estimate the conditional expectation (or population average value) of the dependent variable when the independent variables take on a give ...
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